Winning Sports Picks

15* Heat/Warriors NBA Late-Night BAILOUT on Miami +13.5

The Golden State Warriors come into this game overvalued for a number of reasons.  They own the best record in the league at 35-2, and the betting public has made a killing off of them as they've gone 23-13 ATS.  They are coming off a 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS road trip against Western Conference bottom feeders in the Lakers, Blazers and Kings as well.

The Miami Heat are one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference at 22-15 on the season.  They have won four of their last six coming in while going 4-2 ATS in the process.  They are certainly capable of staying within this massive 13.5-point spread, which I believe to be too much tonight.

The Heat are coming off a poor performance in an 83-98 loss at Utah on Saturday, and that result has them undervalued as well.  I would be shocked if it wasn't due to them looking ahead to this game against the Warriors.  Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Hassan Whiteside, Goran Dragic and company are all relishing the opportunity to go at the defending champs tonight and will bring max effort as a result.

Plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points (MIAMI) - after a blowout loss by 15 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games are 31-10 (75.6%) ATS since 1996.  Roll with the Heat Monday.

20* Alabama/Clemson National Championship No-Brainer on Clemson +7

Deshaun Watson is exactly the type of quarterback that Alabama has struggled against through the years. He can beat you with his arms and his legs, and I look for him to make enough plays to keep the Tigers in this game for four quarters. The Tigers weren’t getting any respect as underdogs against Oklahoma when they dominated in a 37-17 victory, and they’re certainly not getting respect as touchdown dogs here in the title game.

Watson is completing 68.2 percent of his passes for 3,704 yards with 31 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, while also rushing for 1,032 yards and 12 scores. He probably feels like he got snubbed out of the Heisman Trophy, which went to Alabama’s Derrick Henry. So not only will the Tigers be motivated as underdogs, they’ll also get an inspired effort from Watson here as he looks to make a statement.

While the edge on defense goes to the Crimson Tide in this one, there’s no denying that the edge on offense clearly belongs to the Tigers. They are putting up 38.4 points and 511.7 yards per game against teams that only give up 25.3 points and 379 yards per game. Alabama averages 34.4 points and 423.8 yards per game against teams that give up 24.9 points and 365 yards per game.

But it’s not like the Tigers are slouches on defense. They are allowing 20.0 points and 302.0 yards per game against teams that average 29.5 points and 398 yards per game. They also give up just 4.7 per play against teams that average 6.0 per play. Stopping Henry and Alabama's rushing attack will be key for the Tigers, and they are equipped to do it. They give up just 125 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry against teams that average 190 yards per game and 4.8 per carry.

Alabama’s defense has put up great numbers this season, but it has faced some awful offenses here down the stretch. Its last four games have come against Michigan State, Florida, Auburn and Charleston Southern. The Crimson Tide will be taking a big step up in competition here as Clemson has one of the best offenses in the land. In fact, this will be the best offense that Alabama has seen all season. Ole Miss was the next-best offense it has faced, and it gave up 43 points in a loss to the Rebels.

Clemson is 30-14 ATS in its last 44 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. The Crimson Tide are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games. The Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last four bowl games. Clemson is 6-0 ATS in its last six neutral site games.  Bet Clemson Monday.

15* NBA Monday Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Bulls UNDER 207.5

A lot is being made of the Bulls scoring at least 100 points in 10 consecutive games.  As a result, their totals are going to be inflated in the near future, including tonight against the Wizards.  I believe the value is now with the UNDER 207.5 tonight.

The Wizards haven't exactly been offensive juggernauts here of late with all of the injuries they are dealing with, including the one to star SG Bradley Beal, who remains out.  The Wizards have scored 91 or fewer points in four of their last seven games.  But they have been playing good defense, limiting eight of their last 10 opponents to 99 or fewer points.

The recent history between these teams justifies this play on the UNDER 207.5.  They have combined for 204 or fewer points in 25 consecutive meetings! That's a perfect 25-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this total set.  They have averaged 183.7 combined points per game in their last six meetings, which is 24 points less than this total.  Enough said.  Take the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Cavs/76ers OVER 203.5

The Cleveland Cavaliers have become the offensive juggernaut that most thought they'd be when having Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love and Lebron James healthy at the same time.  They have simply been rolling since Irving returned from injury a few games back.

Indeed, the Cavaliers have scored 104, 122, 121 and 125 points in their last four games, respectively.  That's an average of 118.0 points per game.  I expect them to flirt with that average again today against the lowly Philadelphia 76ers.

The 76ers have been trying to play at a faster tempo this season, especially since hiring Mike D'Antoni.  They rank 5th in pace at 99.8 possessions per game this season.  The results have been better on offense, but their defense has been atrocious as they've allowed 104-plus points in 11 of their last 14 games overall.  They have given up 108, 126 and 130 points in three of their last four.

The OVER is 11-3 in Cavaliers last 14 games when playing on one days' rest.  The OVER is 12-4 in 76ers 16 home games this season.  The OVER is 8-0 in 76ers last eight games following a loss by more than 10 points.  The OVER is 9-1-1 in 76ers last 11 games following a loss overall.  The OVER is 20-7 in 76ers last 27 vs. Eastern Conference foes.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Celtics -2

The Boston Celtics are primed for a big performance today.  They have lost two straight and four of their last five coming in, so they're motivated for a victory.  Plus, they have had two days off in between games having last played on Thursday, so they are well-rested and ready to go.

The Celtics are now at full strength as PG Avery Bradley is expected to return from a hip injury.  The same cannot be said for the Memphis Grizzlies, who are expected to be without their starting backcourt in PG Mike Conley and SG Courtney Lee.

Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BOSTON) - after having lost 4 of their last 5 games, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days are 94-54 (63.5%) ATS since 1996.

Boston is 12-2 ATS in road games after having lost 4 or 5 of its last 6 games over the last two seasons.  The Celtics are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games overall.  The Grizzlies are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Bet the Celtics Sunday.

15* Packers/Redskins NFC No-Doubt Rout on Green Bay -1

I just simply trust the Green Bay Packers more than the Washington Redskins in a big game like this. They have all kinds of playoff experience, while the Redskins haven’t made the postseason since Robert Griffin III’s rookie season. The Redskins are 0-3 in their last three playoff games and haven’t won a playoff game since 2005. I don’t believe that streak is going to end this weekend.

In fact, I believe the Redskins are the worst of the 12 teams in the playoffs. They won a very weak NFC East division to get here, and the numbers support my claim. The Redskins rank 23rd in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by an average of 26.8 yards per game. That is easily the worst ranking in this all-important stat of all 12 playoff teams.

Yes, the Redskins won each of their final four games this season, but they were fortunate to do so. They were outgained in four of their final five games. Plus, those five games came against the Cowboys (twice), Eagles, Bills and Bears. None of those five teams made the playoffs this year.

Washington also benefited from such an easy schedule this season. Indeed, 14 of its 16 games were against non-playoff teams. It was crushed in its two games against playoff teams, losing 16-44 at Carolina and 10-27 at New England. Conversely, Green Bay played seven games against playoff teams this season. It went 3-4 against them, but it certainly played a tougher schedule to get here, and that’s why its 10-6 record is much more impressive than Washington’s 9-7 mark.

The Redskins have been extremely fortunate this season in creating turnovers by their defense. In fact, they have recovered the most fumbles of any team in the league. Well, the Packers aren’t a team that turns the ball over often. They have committed only 17 turnovers in 16 games this season, so they aren’t going to beat themselves.

The Packers should have no problem getting their offense going this week against a Washington defense that ranks 28th in allowing 380.6 yards per game. This is a defense that gives up a ridiculous 6.3 yards per play against opponents that only average 5.7 per play. The Packers are clearly superior on that side of the ball as they give up 346.7 yards per game this season. I also like the fact that the Packers are getting healthy along the offensive line and should protect Aaron Rodgers much better this week.

The Packers have owned the Redskins, going 5-1 SU & 4-1-1 ATS in their last six meetings. Their only loss came in overtime on the road back in 2010. The Packers have outscored the Redskins 163-73 in those six meetings, or by an average of 15.0 points per game. If that’s not domination, then I don’t know what is. Look for it to continue in this NFC Wild Card showdown Sunday.

Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (GREEN BAY) – after being beaten by the spread by 28 or more points total in their last three games, in conference games are 38-13 (74.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Green Bay is 9-2 ATS off a division game over the last two seasons. Washington is 6-15 ATS in its last 21 games following an ATS win. Green Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last five playoff road games.  Roll with the Packers Sunday.

20* Seahawks/Vikings NFC Wild Card No-Brainer on Seattle -4.5

The Seattle Seahawks have been playing like the best team in the NFL here down the stretch. They have gone 6-1 in their last seven games overall with all six victories coming by 9 points or more. Their only loss came via fluke at home to the Rams as they outgained St. Louis by 107 yards in that game.

In fact, they have outgained six of their last seven opponents by at least 107 yards, including 122 against Arizona, 193 against Cleveland, 122 against Baltimore, 308 against Minnesota and 202 against San Francisco. The Seahawks now rank 1st in the NFL in the all-important yardage differential stat, outgaining teams by an average of 86.8 yards per game on the season.

To compare, the Minnesota Vikings rank just 21st in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by 23.0 yards per game. Only the Redskins have been worse among playoff teams in that department. As a result, I believe the Vikings are one of the most overrated teams in the playoffs. They are awful on offense and just above-average on defense. They were fortunate to beat the Packers in the finale as they were outgained 242-350, or by 108 total yards.

The Vikings rank just 29th in the NFL in total offense at 321.2 yards per game. Adrian Peterson is nursing a back injury that limited him to 67 yards on 19 carries against the Packers.  To compare, the Seahawks rank 4th in total offense at 378.6 yards per game, and Russell Wilson has been playing at an MVP level for weeks. He has a ridiculous 24-to-1 TD/INT ratio over his last seven games. He has also rushed for 553 yards and a score on the season.

I just don’t believe the Vikings are going to be able to put up enough points to keep up with Wilson and the Seahawks. That’s because Seattle is just as good on the other side of the football. It ranks 2nd in the NFL in total defense at 291.8 yards per game. It has limited its last five opponents to 6, 23, 13, 6 and 7 points, respectively. That's an average of 11.0 points per game.  This is back to being the dominant defense that we’ve become accustomed to in recent years.

The Seahawks simply own the Vikings. They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with wins by 31, 21 and 10 points, respectively. That includes the 38-7 beat down the Seahawks put on the Vikings on the road back on December 6. This was arguably the most dominant performance of one team over another this entire season. The Seahawks outgained the Vikings 433-125 for the game, or by a ridiculous 308 total yards.

Seattle is 8-0 ATS after having won four out of its last five games over the last two seasons. The Seahawks are 9-1 ATS in road games off one or more consecutive unders over the last three seasons. Seattle is 32-12 ATS in its last 44 versus good rushing teams who average 130 or more rushing yards per game in the second half of the season. Plays on favorites after beating the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games are 36-13 (73.5%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Take the Seahawks Sunday.

15* CBB Sunday Early ANNIHILATOR on Detroit +7.5

The Detroit Titans have been awful on the road, but they've been a juggernaut at home this season.  They've gone a perfect 9-0 at home, outscoring teams by an average of 15.2 points per game.  I love the proposition of getting them as nice-sized home underdogs here to Valpo.

Detroit is certainly one of the best offensive teams in the country.  It is scoring 85.4 points per game overall, including 91.3 points per game on 49.6% shooting at home.  This team is going to be able to score on Valpo today.

All three of Valpo's losses this season have come on the road.  They lost 85-81 at Belmont, 67-73 at Oregon and 69-66 at Ball State, and they only beat Oregon State by 6 and Indiana State by 6 on the road, so they are vulnerable away from home.  We saw that last year as well as Detroit beat Valpo 63-60 at home as 4.5-point dogs.

Detroit is 8-0 ATS in home games off a home win over the last two seasons.  The Titans are 7-0 ATS in home games off a win by 10 points or more over the last three years.  Detroit is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games vs. teams who average 40 or more rebounds per game.  The underdog is 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series.  These four trends combine for a perfect 29-0 system backing the Titans.  Roll with Detroit Sunday.

25* WCC GAME OF THE YEAR on San Francisco +18

This is my favorite play in the WCC for the entire 2015-16 season.  This is a massive lookahead spot for BYU, which faces Gonzaga in its next game.  It will just be going through the motions to try and beat San Francisco today and not giving the kind of effort it's going to take to put away the Dones by 18-plus points.

San Francisco comes in playing its best basketball of the season.  It is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall with a 13-point win over Pacific, a 12-point win over Portland, and an 8-point road win at San Diego.  Its only loss came at home to Gonzaga by 8 points as 13.5-point dogs, so it has already proven it can play with the best team in this conference.

One thing that really stood out to me was how tough San Francisco has played BYU on the road in recent years.  The Dons are 3-0 ATS in their last three trips to BYU.  They lost by 4 as 13-point road dogs last year, lost by 5 as 11.5-point dogs two years ago, and won by 12 outright as 14.5-point dogs three years ago.  The road team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.

The Dons are 98-58 ATS in their last 156 conference road games.  The Dons are 54-23-1 ATS in their last 78 WCC games overall.  San Francisco is 35-16-1 ATS in its last 52 road games.  The Cougars are 12-28 ATS in their last 40 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.  Bet San Francisco Saturday.

20* Steelers/Bengals AFC Wild Card ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh -2.5

It’s no surprise that all four Wild Card teams are actually favored despite playing on the road. That’s because the Wild Card teams are simply better than the division winners, and that is the case in this game. I have no doubt that the Steelers are the better team here, and I trust them to go on the road with all of their playoff experience and knock off the Bengals by at least a field goal to cover this 2.5-point spread.

After all, the Steelers have owned the Bengals in recent meetings. They are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Bengals. Their only loss came 16-10 back on November 1 of this season, which was the first game back from injury for Ben Roethlisberger. He was clearly rusty as he gave the game away by throwing three interceptions. But the Steelers still should have won that game as they outgained the Bengals 356-296.  The would bounce back with a 33-20 win at Cincinnati on the road on December 13 only after the Bengals scored a garbage TD in the closing seconds.

Pittsburgh has one of the best offenses in the NFL. It ranks 3rd in the league in total offense at 395.4 yards per game, including 3rd in passing offense at 287.7 yards per game. Both numbers would have been even better had Roethlisberger not missed a four full games and parts of two others due to injury. They are putting up 26.4 points per game and only giving up 19.9 points per game on the season.

The Bengals have not played very well since Andy Dalton went out with an injury. Yes, they’ve gone 2-1 in their three games without him to close out the season, but they were very fortunate they didn’t go 0-3. They were outgained by 76 yards in their 24-14 win at San Francisco, by 96 yards in their 17-20 loss at Denver, and by 49 yards in their 24-16 home win over Baltimore. The Bengals are only averaging 21.7 points, 276.0 yards per game and 4.6 yards per play in their last three games without Dalton, who isn’t expected to be ready to play Saturday.  This offense can't keep up with the Steelers in its current state.

Cincinnati has a playoff curse that it cannot seem to shake. It is 0-6 in its last six playoff games with its last win coming all the way back in 1990. Sure, the Bengals want to put an end to this drought, but every year the pressure gets bigger, and they just don’t handle it well. The offense has been the culprit as the Bengals have scored 10, 10, 13, 10, 14 and 17 points in the six losses. With or without Dalton, I look for this offense to struggle mightily again.

The Bengals have also had plenty of leaks defensively this season. While they are stout against the run, they are extremely vulnerable against the pass, which plays right into the Steelers’ hands. They give up 64.2 percent completions to opposing quarterbacks. They have allowed 301, 251, 270, 263, 277 and 282 passing yards in six of their last seven games coming in. Roethlisberger should have a field day Saturday.

Pittsburgh is 9-1 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last three seasons. The Steelers are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 games vs. teams who average 7.5 or more passing yards per attempt. The Bengals are 7-18 ATS in their last 25 home games vs. excellent passing teams who complete 64 percent or more of their passes. The Steelers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games in January. The Bengals are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games in January, including 0-6 ATS in their last six playoff games.  Bet the Steelers Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -2

I successfully backed the Orlando Magic in an 83-77 win at Brooklyn last night as 4-point favorites, and I'm backing them again tonight for many of the same reasons.  This team is motivated following a 4-game losing streak, and they are undervalued due to that streak as well.

Adding to the Magic's motivation tonight is the fact that they are 0-3 against Washington in three meetings this season.  They lost by 12 and 9 on the road, and by just 1 at home.  They will be hungry to avoid the season sweep, and I like their chances of getting a victory here with the way the Wizards are playing right now.

Indeed, Washington is 1-5 in its last six games overall.  That includes a 19-point home loss to the Clippers and a 22-point home loss to the Heat.  The Wizards are still playing without star SG Bradley Beal, which is the biggest reason for their struggles.  Their injury list remains long, and they aren't playing up to their potential as a result.  They lost 97-88 at home to the Raptors last night, so they are playing the second of a back-to-back as well, which hurts them more because they are short-handed, while the Magic are a deep team.

The Wizards are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games when playing on 0 days' rest, while the Magic are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on 0 days' rest.  The Magic are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  Orlando is 18-7-1 ATS in its last 26 games following an ATS win.  The home team is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings in this series.  Roll with the Magic Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Florida State +8.5

The Miami Hurricanes are way overvalued right now due to their 12-1 start to the season.  They have covered five of their last six against the spread, so the betting public is all over them.  But they have certainly benefited from playing an easy schedule here of late as their last six opponents have been Charlotte, Florida, College of Charleston, LaSalle, Princeton and Syracuse with none of those being true road games.  It's simply time to fade the Hurricanes.

The Florida State Seminoles come in highly motivated for a victory in this rivalry game.  They have opened 0-2 in ACC play with a 75-84 loss at Clemson and a 90-106 home loss to North Carolina in a game that was close until the final 10 minutes.  They will be playing with a little extra edge here today to try and get their first ACC victory.  This is still a quality team at 10-4 and one that will be a force in the ACC the rest of the way.

But what really stands out to me is the closely-contested nature of this series.  Indeed, each of the last three meetings have been decided by 4 points or less.  The Seminoles haven't lost to the Hurricanes by more than 6 points in any of the last five meetings.  So given the close nature of this series, getting 8.5 points is a ton of value.  Plus, the Seminoles are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games.

Florida State is 10-1 ATS off a home loss over the last three seasons, including a perfect 9-0 ATS off a home loss to a conference opponent.  Miami is 0-8 ATS in home games after scoring 30 points or less in the first half of two straight games over the last three seasons.  The Seminoles are 7-0 ATS when the total is 150 to 159.5 over the last three seasons.  FSU is 6-0 ATS in its last six games following a double-digit home loss.  These five trends combine for a 40-1 system backing the Seminoles.  Take Florida State Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas State +13

The Oklahoma Sooners are in a massive hangover spot Saturday.  They are coming off a triple-overtime loss at Kansas on Monday, and it's going to be hard for them to come back and give the kind of effort they played with in that game to try and pull off the upset, only to come up short.

Kansas State is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  Bruce Weber has this team playing some great basketball this year.  The Wildcats are 10-4 with all four of their losses coming by 10 points or less to some very good teams.  They lost by 10 to North Carolina on a neutral court, by 10 to Texas A&M on the road, by 4 at home to West Virginia, and by 3 at Texas.

But what really stands out is that Kansas State has had Oklahoma's number in recent years.  Indeed, the Wildcats are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with the Sooners despite being underdogs in three of those.  Thy won both meetings last year with a 66-63 road win as 12-point dogs, and a 59-56 home win as 3.5-point dogs.

The Wildcats are 6-0 ATS versus good defensive teams that allow 42% or less shooting this season.  K-State is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games vs. a team that wins more than 80% of its games.  The Wildcats are 14-5 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons.  K-State is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games overall.  The Sooners are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 vs. Big 12 opponents.  Roll with Kansas State Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Vanderbilt +4

The Vanderbilt Commodores are highly motivated for a victory Saturday when they travel to face the unbeaten South Carolina Gamecocks.  The Commodores have opened 0-2 in SEC play with an 8-point home loss to LSU and an overtime road loss to Arkansas.  They want to right the ship in a hurry.

I like their chances to get in the win column in SEC play Saturday because I still believe this is one of the best teams in the conference.  But they have lost a lot of close games here of late as five of their six losses have come by 8 points or less.

A big reason has been because they've been without one of their best players in Luke Kornet (9.7 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 2.6 bpg) for five games.  But Kornet returned against Arkansas last game and had 11 points and 8 rebounds.  His presence will be huge against South Carolina, and going forward.

South Carolina is certainly a feel-good story up to this point with its 14-0 start, but it has come against an extremely soft schedule.  The Gamecocks have only had to play two true road games this season and they haven't faced a ranked opponent all year.  They will be exposed for what they are, which is just a middle-of-the-pack SEC team,   against the best team they've faced in Vanderbilt.

Vanderbilt is 44-26 ATS in its last 70 games following a loss by 6 points or less.  The Commodores are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following a straight up loss.  Vanderbilt is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 road games.  The Commodores are 36-15 ATS in their last 51 games following a ATS loss.  Roll with Vanderbilt Saturday.

15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Bowling Green -1

The Bowling Green Falcons are arguably the best team in the MAC this season.  They are off to a 10-4 start this year, which includes a 6-1 home record.  They are outscoring opponents by 12.6 points per game at home this year.

Central Michigan is just 7-7 and has had some very suspect performances this season.  It has losses to Weber State (by 3), Western Kentucky (by 28), Grand Canyon (by 3) and Eastern Michigan (by 19).  It also has ugly home wins over McNeese State (by 1) and Texas Southern (by 8).

But the most important stat going against the Chippewas is the fact that they are 0-6 in all road games this season.  Their defense has been horrible away from home as they are giving up 82.7 points per game and 48.7% shooting to opponents.  They just gave up 66% shooting in their 99-80 home loss to Eastern Michigan on Wednesday, so defense clearly is not a priority for them.  The Falcons have only allowed 55.0 points per game during their 3-game winning streak coming in.

Bowling Green is 6-0 ATS after playing two consecutive games as a home favorite over the last three seasons.  The Falcons are 26-13 ATS in their alst 29 games overall.  The Chippewas are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six road games, and 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Take Bowling Green Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Florida -3.5

This is a massive letdown spot for the LSU Tigers.  They are coming off a huge 85-67 home win on National TV against #9 Kentucky on Tuesday.  There's no question they have been getting patted on the back over the last few days leading up to this game, and it will go to their heads, and they will not show up with the same intensity against Florida Saturday.

At the same time, this is a great spot to back the Gators.  They are coming off a bad 69-83 road loss at Tennessee on Wednesday, so they'll be highly motivated to get back in the win column when they return home, where they were last seen crushing Georgia 77-63 as 8-point favorites to open SEC play.

The Gators are 6-1 at home this season, outscoring teams by 21.5 points per game.  The Tigers are 1-4 in all road games this season, giving up 84.2 points per game away from home.  Florida has won four of its last five home meetings with LSU with all four victories coming by 12 points or more.

The Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.  The Gators are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss.  Florida is 5-1 ATS in its last six games following a straight up loss.  Johnny Jones is 4-12 ATS in road games off a win by 10 points or more as the coach of LSU.  Take Florida Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Tennessee +5

The Tennessee Vols are a much better team than their 8-6 record would indicate.  Their six losses have all come on the road to Georgia Tech (by 2), George Washington (by 3), Nebraska (by 11), Butler (by 8), Gonzaga (by 7) and Auburn (by 6).

So, they've shown that they can play with the likes of George Washington, Butler and Gonzaga, which says all that you need to know about this team.  The Vols really showed what they were capable of when they beat Florida 83-69 at home on Wednesday.  They improved to 8-0 at home this season with that huge victory.

Texas A&M is overrated due to playing a home-heavy schedule.  It has played just two true road games this season.  One was a 54-67 upset loss at Arizona State as 3.5-point favorites, and the other was a narrow 61-60 road win at Mississippi State as 7-point favorites Wednesday night.  The Aggies shouldn't be favored on the road against the Vols today based off those two performances, especially considering the Vols haven't lost at home this year.

One of my favorite trends that I always look for with Tennessee is that it is 32-9 ATS in its last 41 games as a home underdog or pick 'em.  Better yet, the Vols are 27-6 ATS in their last 33 games as a home underdog of 6 points or less, and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a home dog of 3.5 to 6 points.  Bet Tennessee Saturday.

15* NBA Friday Undervalued Underdog on New York Knicks +14

The San Antonio Spurs could not possibly be more overvalued than they are right now.  They have gone a league-best 26-11 ATS in all games this season, and their 21-0 SU & 16-5 ATS home mark has the betting public all over them.  The Spurs have covered 12 of their last 14 games ATS as well.

The New York Knicks continue getting no respect from oddsmakers tonight despite playing their best basketball of the season coming in.  They've gone 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.  They are 2-2 straight up in their last four meetings with the Spurs, not once losing by more than 14 points.

Their recent run includes a 12-point home win over Detroit as 1.5-point dogs, a 14-point home win over Atlanta as 4.5-point dogs, a 6-point road win over Atlanta as 7.5-point dogs, and an 8-point road win at Miami as 7.5-point dogs.  This team is playing with a ton of confidence right now and feeling like it can compete with San Antonio.

New York is 17-8 ATS when revenging a loss to an opponent this season.  The Knicks are 8-1 ATS when playing 8 or more games in 14 days this season.  Plays against home favorites of 10 or more points (SAN ANTONIO) - good defensive team - allowing 91 or fewer points/game on the season, after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last game are 36-14 (72%) ATS since 1996.  The Knicks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Roll with the Knicks Friday.

15* Cavs/T'Wolves ESPN Friday No-Brainer on OVER 196

With Kyrie Irving back in the lineup, the Cleveland Cavaliers have become the explosive offensive team that we all thought they'd be.  They have scored 104, 122 and 121 points in their last three games overall for an average of 115.7 points per game.

Look for the Cavs to put up another big number against the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight to mostly take care of this OVER by themselves.  The T'Wolves have allowed 101 or more points in 13 of their last 18 games overall.

The last three meetings between the Cavs and T'Wolves have all seen at least 196 combined points.  They have combined for 196, 229 and 219 points in their last three meetings, respectively.  That's an average of 214.7 points per game, which is roughly 19 points more than this 196-point total.

Plays on the OVER on all teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (MINNESOTA) - in a game involving two good offensive teams (98-102 PPG), after scoring 80 points or less are 36-11 (76.6%) since 1996.  Take the OVER in this game Friday.

20* NBA Friday No-Doubt Rout on Orlando Magic -4.5

The Orlando Magic are extremely motivated for a win tonight.  They have lost four straight coming in with three of those coming on the road.  Look for them to give max effort to try and end this skid, and for it to be enough to beat the lowly Brooklyn Nets.

The Nets are in a world of hurt right now.  They have gone just 3-10 in their last 13 games overall, and the injuries are starting to pile up.  They just lost starting PG Jarrett Jack to a season-ending ACL injury.  They have proceeded to get blown out 94-103 by Boston and 74-91 to Toronto, both at home, in their two games without him.

The Magic have owned the Nets in two meetings this season.  They won 105-82 on the road and 100-93 at home.  The Magic have been a solid road team this season as they've gone 10-6-1 ATS in their 17 road games.

Orlando is 9-1 ATS in road games after failing to cover 5 or 6 of its last 7 games against the spread over the last two seasons.  The Magic are 31-17 ATS in road games after playing a game as an underdog over the last two years.  The Magic are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  The Nets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.  Bet the Magic Friday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Illinois +13.5

The Michigan State Spartans have looked pedestrian without their best player in Denzel Valentine, who will miss this game as well.  They needed overtime to beat Oakland on a neutral court, lost by 13 at Iowa, and had a hard-fought 69-61 win over a sub-.500 Minnesota team in their last three games without him.

Illinois has proven that it is not intimidated by facing the Spartans at the Breslin Center.  In fact, the Fighting Illini have won each of their last two trips to Michigan State.  They won 59-54 as 9.5-point road underdogs last season, and 53-46 as 12.5-point road dogs in 2014.

Illinois had won five straight games before opening 0-2 in Big Ten play.  But they lost by 10 to Michigan and by 2 at Ohio State, so they have been competitive to open conference play.  Now the Fighting Illini will be extra motivated to get that first Big Ten victory.  While they may not get it, it's certainly reasonable to think that they'll stay within 13 points of the Spartans tonight.

The Fighting Illini are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing 75 points or more in two straight games coming in.  Illinois is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six road games.  The Spartans are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. Big Ten opponents.  The Fighting Illini are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six trips to Michigan State.  The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with Illinois Thursday.

20* Celtics/Bulls TNT Thursday No-Brainer on Boston +6.5

The Boston Celtics are highly motivated for a victory after losing three of their last four games coming in.  They were outscored in the fourth quarter by 14 points by the Pistons last night to lost 94-99, and now they'll certainly come back playing with a chip on their shoulder tonight.

The Chicago Bulls come into this game overvalued because they have gone 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall, four of which have come at home.  It's  now time to fade them as they are simply laying too many points to the Celtics tonight.

Boston has been better on the road than it has been at home.  It is 10-6 SU & 11-5 ATS in road games this season, outscoring teams 103.1 to 99.1 on average.  In fact, the Celtics are 7-2 SU in their last nine road games with their only losses coming to the Piston (by 3) and Spurs (by 3).  So they haven't lost by more than 3 points in any of their last nine road games.

The Celtics are 9-1 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points over the last two seasons.  Boston is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning percentage of .600 or better.  The Celtics are 37-14-1 ATS in their last 52 games playing on 0 days rest.  Boston is 39-19 ATS in its last 58 road games.  The Bulls are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS win.  Bet the Celtics Thursday.

15* Sun Belt PLAY OF THE DAY on Troy State +11.5

The Georgia State Panthers made some noise in the NCAA Tournament last year due to the heroics of RJ Hunter, who is now gone.  They are now overvalued after that recognition as they only brought back one starter from that team.

Georgia State has gotten off to an 8-3 start this season, but it has been far from impressive.  Its best wins have come at home against Old Dominion (by 4) and Middle Tennessee (by 2).  This team is simply laying too many points here tonight.

Troy is only 5-8, but I have been impressed with how well this team has played on the road this season.  It is 1-2 in true road games with a 12-point win over North Texas, a 9-point loss at Seton Hall as 15.5-point underdogs, and a 3-point loss at Ole Miss as 3-point dogs.  To compare, Georgia State lost by 9 at Ole Miss as 6.5-point dogs earlier this year.  Seven of the Trojans' eight losses this season have come by 9 points or less.

The Trojans have played the Panthers very tough on the road in recent meetings.  They lost 72-77 as 19.5-point rod dogs last year and 72-81 as 16-point dogs in 2014.  The Trojans are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Trojans are 7-3-2 ATS in their last 12 road games.  The Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  Troy is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games off two consecutive home losses.  Take Troy Thursday.

15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on San Jose State +20

San Jose State was one of the worst teams in college basketball last year.  But this is now one of the most improved teams in the land in 2015-16.  The Spartans are 5-9 and fully capable of staying within 20 points of the San Diego State Aztecs, who haven't been as good as in year's past.

All nine of San Jose State's losses this season have come by 20 points or fewer.  That includes a 7-point loss at Air Force as 9-point road dogs and an 18-point loss at Marquette as 21.5-point dogs.  Considering the Spartans have played 14 games this season and haven't lost by more than 20 once, that's a 14-0 system backing them based on this 20-point spread.

San Diego State likely won't be going to the NCAA Tournament this season.  It is just 9-6 on the year with some ugly losses and wins this year.  It lost to West Virginia by 22 on a neutral court, and it was also upset at home by both Arkansas-Little Rock (by 6) as 16.5-point favorites and Grand Canyon (by 7) in a game that didn't even have a line.

SDSU is 5-15 ATS when playing its 2nd game in a week over the last two seasons.  The Aztecs are 1-8 ATS in home games off one or more consecutive overs over the last three seasons.  Plays against home favorites of 10 or more points (SAN DIEGO ST) - a good team (+3.5 to +8 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3.5 PPG differential), after 3 straight games where both teams score 70 points or less are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet San Jose State Wednesday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Mississippi State +7

Mississippi State is a team that I've had my eye on all season.  This is a squad that returned four starters from last year under the guidance of first-year head coach Ben Howland, who took UCLA to three straight Final Fours back in his prime.

As I expected, the Bulldogs have been undervalued all season as they've gone 7-2 ATS in their nine lined games.  They've been an especially profitable bet at home by going 5-1 SU & 4-0 ATS at home this season.  They are coming off three straight blowout wins over Tulane (by 10), Northern Colorado (by 24) and NC Central (by 23) and are chomping at the bit to play their first SEC game in front of their home crowd tonight.

Texas A&M is a highly ranked team this season and it is overvalued as a result of its 11-2 start.  While the Aggies have played some tough teams, they have actually only played one true road game all season.  That ended in a 54-67 upset loss at Arizona State as 3.5-point favorites.

Mississippi State is 7-0 ATS as a home underdog of 6.5 to 12 points since 1997.  Texas A&M is 0-8 ATS in road games when playing only its 2nd game in 8 days over the last three seasons.  The Bulldogs are 7-0 ATS in home games vs. teams who outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game over the last three years.  These three trends combine for a 22-0 system backing the Bulldogs.  Roll with Mississippi State Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Total DOMINATOR on Nuggets/Timberwolves OVER 202

This is a battle between two bad teams in the Denver Nuggets (12-23) and Minnesota Timberwolves (12-23) with identical awful records.  Look for defense to be optional tonight as this game sails way OVER this 202-point total set.

That's usually the case when these teams get together, anyways.  The first two meetings this season have seen 212 and 219 combined points, respectively.  Dating back further, 9 of the last 11 meetings between these teams have seen 205 or more combined points.  The OVER is 7-2 in the last nine meetings in Minnesota.

The Nuggets have been playing in a ton of high-scoring games here of late.  The OVER is 3-0 in their last three games with combined scores of 213, 219 and 218 points.  Now they are expected to get rookie PG Emmanuel Mudiay back in the lineup tonight and will be even more potent on the offensive end.

Plays on the OVER on all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (MINNESOTA) - cold team - having lost 15 or more of their last 20 games against opponent cold team - having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games are 39-17 (69.6%) over the last five seasons.  The OVER is 5-0 in Nuggets last five games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  The OVER is 4-1 in Timberwolves last five vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  Take the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on UMass +14.5

The Dayton Flyers are way overvalued here as 14.5-point home favorites over the UMass Minutemen.  The Flyers have won four in a row coming in, but they have been far from impressive in doing so.

Three of the four wins have come at home over Furman (by 20), Miami Ohio (by 1) and Arkansas (by 4), with the lone road win coming at Duquesne (by 7).  Don't forget that the Flyers lost to UT-Chattanooga (by 2) at home as 12.5-point favorites in their game prior to this 4-game winning streak.

UMass is starting to play better with wins in three of its last four games overall.  This is a team that puts up 79.2 points per game against teams that only give up 72.6 points per game, so it is a very good offensive unit.  UMass has actually won two of its last three meetings with Dayton with all three decided by 10 points or less.

Dayton is 0-6 ATS off a game where it made 20% or fewer of its 3-point shots over the last three seasons.  The Flyers are 8-17 ATS off two or more consecutive wins over the last two years.  Dayton is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games.  The Flyers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win.  Take UMass Wednesday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Central Michigan -2.5

This is a very generous price to get the Central Michigan Chippewas at Wednesday as they host the Eastern Michigan Eagles.  This is a CMU team that is undervalued right now because it hasn't lived up to expectations after returning all five starters from last season.

While the Chippewas have struggled on the road this year, they've been untouchable at home.  In fact, the they are a perfect 7-0 at home this season, outscoring teams by 15.7 points per game.  Now they take on an EMU team that is just 2-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in road games this season.

With all five starters back for Central Michigan, it's important to note that it crushed Eastern Michigan in both meetings last season.  Indeed, it won 65-51 at home and 72-56 on the road, winning by an average of 15.0 points per game.  Another blowout victory in the Chippewas' favor can be expected in their first meeting of 2016.

Eastern Michigan is 28-46 ATS in its last 74 games as a road dog of 6 points or less.  The Eagles are 18-35 ATS in their last 53 vs. good offensive teams who score 77-plus points per game.  EMU is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 Wednesday games.  The Eagles are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games.  Bet Central Michigan Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference Total ANNIHILATOR on Knicks/Hawks UNDER 203

The New York Knicks and Atlanta Hawks are very familiar with one another to say the least.  In fact, this will be the 2nd time in 3 days that they square off, and their 4th and final meeting of the season.  This familiarity will lead to a low-scoring game tonight as both teams know each other's tendencies by now.

The Knicks prefer to play at a slow pace as they rank 23rd in pace at 96.5 possessions per game.  The Knicks also rank just 22nd in offensive efficiency at 100.9 points per 100 possessions.  The Hawks are 10th in defensive efficiency, giving up 101.2 points per 100 possessions.

Atlanta is 12-3 to the UNDER in home games when playing 4 or less games in 10 days over the last two seasons.  Plays on the UNDER on road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (NEW YORK) - off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog are 50-22 (69.4%) over the last five seasons.  Bet the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Syracuse -5

The Syracuse Orange will be highly motivated for their first ACC win of the season tonight when they host the Clemson Tigers.  I look for them to get it in blowout fashion as they return home after a brutal 2-game road trip to open conference play.

Indeed, the Orange have already had to travel to face Pitt and Miami to open conference play.  They were competitive in both games before eventually losing by 11 and 13 points, respectively.  But now they return home where they are 7-1 this season, outscoring teams by 13.7 points per game.

The Clemson Tigers are 8-6 on the season and shouldn't be getting this much respect from oddsmakers.  That's especially the case considering they are 0-3 in true road games this year with losses to Minnesota (by 6), Georgia (by 23) and North Carolina (by 11).

Clemson is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 games off an upset win as a home underdog against a conference opponent.  The Tigers are 0-6 ATS in Tuesday night road games over the last three seasons.  The Tigers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Roll with Syracuse Tuesday.

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Joe's -2

The St. Joe's Hawks are one of the most underrated teams in college basketball this season.  They have gotten off to an 11-2 start with their only two losses coming against Villanova and Florida.

The Hawks have gone on the road and beaten Temple, Richmond and Old Dominion this season.  They have gone an impressive 8-4 ATS in all games this year, including a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six lined games.  They are once again undervalued as only 2-point home favorites tonight.

The VCU Rams used to be a force under Shaka Smart before he bolted for Texas in the offseason.  Now, the Rams are only 9-5 in their first season without him.  They are really short on quality wins this year as their nine wins have come against Prairie View A&M, Radford, American, Old Dominion, Middle Tennessee, Buffalo, Liberty, North Florida and George Mason.

St. Joe's is 6-0 ATS when playing only its 2nd game in 7 days this season.  The Hawks are 10-1 ATS versus good 3-point shooting teams who make 37% or more of their shots over the last three seasons.  The Hawks are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  St. Joe's is 5-0 ATS in its last five meetings with VCU.  These four trends combine for a 28-1 system backing the Hawks.  Take St. Joe's Tuesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hornets/Warriors UNDER 208

The books have set the bar too high with this total set tonight between the Charlotte Hornets and Golden State Warriors.  The injuries for both of these teams are really piling up now, which will help contribute to the UNDER.

Nicolas Batum, Jeremy Lin, and Spencer Hawes are all questionable for the Hornets, while Al Jefferson remains out.  Harrison Barnes and Brandon Rush are both banged up but expected to play for the Warriors.  Stephen Curry is questionable, while Festus Ezeli, Leandro Barbosa and James Michael McAdoo are all expected to miss tonight.

These are two solid defensive teams as the Warriors rank 4th in defensive efficiency, while the Hornets rank 11th.  Three of the last four meetings in this series have seen 207 or fewer combined points.  We're seeing an average of 196.8 combined points per game in those four meetings, which is 11 points less than this posted total of 208.

Charlotte is 19-8 UNDER vs. teams who score 103 or more points per game over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 15-4-2 in Hornets last 21 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 17-6 in Hornets last 23 Monday games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on Indiana Pacers +2.5

I will gladly fade the Miami Heat in this tough spot tonight.  They will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 7th game in 11 days.  They were in Washington last night, and now they have to return home to Miami tonight.

The Pacers are the better team here and should not be underdogs given the rest situation with them having yesterday off.  They have lost five of their last eight games overall, but three of those losses came by 4 points or less.

Indiana clearly matches up well with Miami.  It is 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in its last six meetings with the Heat with its only loss coming by exactly 2 points.  The Heat are 3-16 ATS off a road win over the last two seasons.

Indiana is 7-0 ATS against teams who win 60% to 70% of their games this season.  The Heat are 1-8 ATS versus teams who force 16 or more turnovers per game this year.  The Pacers are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The Heat are 13-36-2 ATS in their last 51 games following a straight up win.   Take the Pacers Monday.

15* UNC/FSU ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Florida State +3

I believe the oddsmakers have the wrong team favored here tonight in this game between the North Carolina Tar Heels and Florida State Seminoles.  I'll gladly back the home underdog Seminoles, who are one of the most underrated teams in the country.

Florida State's three losses this season have all come by single-digits and all on the road, including an overtime loss at Iowa.  This is a team that won 73-71 at Florida as 5-point dogs in its ACC opener.  The Seminoles are 5-0 at home this season, winning by 23.6 points per game.

North Carolina is more vulnerable than most expected it would be coming into the season.  The Tar Heels are 0-2 in true road games this season with losses at Northern Iowa and at Texas, which are two teams that aren't as good as Florida State.  They weren't impressive in their two ACC home games this season with an 11-point win over Clemson as 15.5-point favorites and an 8-point win over GA Tech as 14.5-point favorites, either.

The Tar Heels are 0-9 ATS after having won 12 or more of their last 15 games over the last three seasons.  The Seminoles are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games after being called for 5-plus more fouls than their opponents in two straight games.  Roll with Florida State Monday.

15* Vikings/Packers NBC Sunday Night BAILOUT on UNDER 46

I wish I would have got this UNDER when it opened at 48, but I still like it a lot at 46.  It has been bet down for good reason.  This game between the Vikings and Packers will be played at a high intensity level with first place on the line in the NFC North.  I believe that favors the defenses.

The oddsmakers made a mistake in setting this total too high because the Vikings scored 49 points last week against an awful Giants defense, while the Packers gave up 38 to Arizona.  But the Vikings got a defensive touchdown and only had 368 yards of offense, so there's no way they should have scored 49.  The Packers did give up 381 yards to the Cardinals, but they held them 39 yards below their season average.  The Cardinals also had two defensive touchdowns to pad their number.  So the Packers' defense only essentially gave up 24 points.

One thing that is certain heading into this game is that both offenses are horrible.  The Vikings rank 26th in the NFL in total offense at 326.5 yards per game.  The Packers are 24th at 333.5 yards per game.  In their last two games, the Packers were held to just 293 total yards against the Raiders and 178 total yards against the Cardinals.

The biggest reason for their struggles on offense is an O-Line that is banged up right now as both tackles in Bryan Bulaga and David Bakhtiari are likely to miss this game.  Aaron Rodgers was under duress all game long against the Cardinals, and he finished just 16-of-29 for 77 yards in the loss.

Things won't get any easier for Rodgers against a Minnesota defense that is dominant and just returned three key players in the middle of its defense in S Harrison Smith, LB Anthony Barr and DT Linval Joseph.  The Vikings are only yielding 19.3 points per game this season while ranking 14th in total defense at 343.8 yards per game.

The strength of the Packers this season, believe it or not, has been their defense.  They are only giving up 20.2 points per game this season, including 16.7 per game at home.  They had held six straight opponents to 23 points or fewer and an average of 16.3 points per game prior to giving up 38 to the Cardinals.  Again, only 24 of those were on the defense.

The Packers beat the Vikings 30-13 on the road in their first meeting this season for 43 combined points.  That 30 points was pretty fluky as well as the Packers did it on only 320 yards of total offense.  The Vikings managed just 13 points and 342 total yards in that game.  I believe a similar combined point total of 43 or less is likely in the rematch, especially in the cold weather at Lambeau Field.

Minnesota is 6-0 to the UNDER off two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  Green Bay is 9-2 UNDER vs. teams who complete 61% or more of their passes this season.  The UNDER is 8-1 in Vikings last nine vs. a team with a winning record.  The UNDER is 11-3 in all Vikings road games over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Vikings last 10 vs. NFC North opponents.  The UNDER is 5-0 in Packers last five home games.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Tampa Bay Buccaneers +11

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the most underrated team in the NFL heading into Week 17.  They are catching way too many points against the Carolina Panthers, who have been overvalued here down the stretch due to their 14-1 record.  They are once again overvalued here as double-digit favorites over the Bucs.

The reason I say the Bucs are underrated is because they rank 7th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 36.5 points per game.  Only the Cardinals, Seahawks, Broncos, Jets, Patriots and Panthers (6th, +48.3 YPG) have been better, so they are in some elite company with this yardage differential stat.

The Buccaneers are also an elite team from a yards per play standpoint, which is one of the most important stats in the NFL.  They average 6.1 yards per play on offense and only give up 5.3 per play on defense, outgaining teams by 0.8 yards per play.  The Panthers are good but not as good in this department.  They average 5.7 yards per play on offense and give up 5.1 per play on defense.  They outgain teams by 0.6 yards per play.

If the Bucs don't turn the ball over, they can beat anyone, and they will certainly be gunning for their rivals in the Panthers Sunday.  They want nothing more than to knock the Panthers from earning home-field advantage in the NFC, so they'll certainly be showing up for this one.

That's especially the case since they want revenge from a 23-37 home loss to the Panthers in their first meeting this year.  That final score couldn't have been any more misleading.  The Bucs outgained the Panthers 411-244 for the game, or by 167 total yards.  But they committed five turnovers, including two that were returned for touchdowns, which proved to be the difference.  It's going to take more turnovers from the Bucs for the Panthers to win this game by double-digits, and you can never bank on turnovers when betting games.

Back to my point about the Panthers being overvalued, they are just 1-3 ATS in their last four games.  They won by 3 at New Orleans as 5.5-point favorites on a last-minute TD, they won by 3 at the Giants as 5-point favorites on a last-second FG, and they lost to to the Falcons by 7 on the road last week despite being 7-point favorites.

Home-field advantage has meant very little in this series in recent meetings.  The road team is 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Tampa Bay is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. teams who outscore opponents by 10-plus points per game in the second half of the season.  Plays against home favorites of 10.5 or more points (CAROLINA) - versus division opponents, off an upset loss as a road favorite are 38-14 (73.1%) ATS since 1983.  Bet the Buccaneers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Bucs/Panthers UNDER 47

I'm taking the UNDER in this game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers.  This is a division game, which adds intensity.  It's also an important game for the Panthers as they wants to secure home-field advantage in the NFC.  With the pressure now mounting after a loss to the Falcons last week, I look for a conservative game plan from these Panthers just to try and get a win any way they can.

But what really makes me love this UNDER is the fact that both teams have great defenses.  The Panthers rank 4th in the NFL in total defense, giving up 318.7 yards per game and 5.1 per play against teams that average 358 yards per game and 5.7 per play.  The Buccaneers are 9th in total defense, allowing 338.7 yards per game and 5.3 per play against teams that average 353 yards per game and 5.6 per play.

There are a couple reasons the oddsmakers have set this total too high, which has provided value with the UNDER.  The first is that the Panthers have uncharacteristically scored a lot of points lately, but make no mistake, this is no offensive juggernaut.  The Panthers only average 5.7 yards per play against teams that give up 5.8 yards per play.  They have thrived against poor defenses like the Giants, Saints and Falcons in recent weeks.

The second reason the books have set this number higher than it should be is because the Panthers won the first meeting 37-23 over the Bucs for 60 combined points.  But the Panthers managed 37 points despite gaining just 244 total yards.  That's nearly impossible.  They took advantage of five Buccaneers' turnovers, including two that were returned for touchdowns.  Take away those two, and this game would have only seen 46 combined points.

That high-scoring affair between these teams was a rarity in this rivalry.  Indeed, the Falcons and Panthers have combined for 44 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation (not counting OT) in six of their last seven meetings.  They had combined for 36, 34, 33, 44, 42 and 26 points in their six previous meetings.  That's an average of just 35.8 combined points per game, which is more than 11 points less than this 47-point total.

The Panthers managed just 13 points and 268 total yards against the Falcons last week as they are dealing with a bunch of injuries on offense right now, including a foot injury to RB Jonathan Stewart that will likely keep him out again.  Backup RB Fozzy Whittaker is also expected to miss this game.

Tampa Bay is 11-1 to the UNDER after having lost four or five of its last six games over the last two seasons.  The Bucs are 6-0 UNDER vs. good passing teams that average 7 or more yards per attempt in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Bucs last eight games vs. NFC South opponents.  The UNDER is 12-4 in Panthers last 16 vs. NFC South foes.  The UNDER is 11-4 in the last 15 meetings in Carolina.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Hawks/Knicks UNDER 202.5

I'm backing the UNDER in this game between the New York Knicks and Atlanta Hawks today.  I like UNDERS in early Sunday NBA games, and this one really stands out as having some value with a total set of over 200 points.

For starters, the Knicks will be controlling the tempo as they are playing at home, and they prefer a slow pace.  Indeed, the Knicks rank 23rd in the NBA in pace at 96.4 possessions per game.  The Knicks also struggle on the offensive end as they rank 24th in offensive efficiency.

New York is 18-8 UNDER when the total is 200 or more over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 8-3 in Knicks last 11 Sunday games.  The UNDER is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in New York.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* WVU/Arizona State Cactus Bowl BAILOUT on Arizona State +1

For starters, this will be a home game for the Arizona State Sun Devils.  Indeed, the Cactus Bowl will be played at Sun Devil Stadium in Tempe.  Not only do I believe the Sun Devils will have a massive home-field advantage as a result, I also believe they are the better team anyway, and they should not be underdogs.

The Sun Devils are a much better team than their 6-6 record would indicate, but that record has them undervalued heading into the bowl season.  Big things were expected of this team as they returned 16 starters this year and were expected to compete for a Pac-12 South title.

But the Sun Devils had some poor fortune in close games this year.  They lost by 2 at California and by 6 in overtime at home to Oregon despite outgaining the Ducks by 241 yards in a complete fluke loss.  They did go on the road and beat UCLA 38-23 to flash their potential, and they played much better at home this season than on the road.  The beat Arizona (52-37), Washington (27-17) and Colorado (48-23) at home within the Pac-12 with their only losses coming to USC and Oregon.

While Arizona State has four wins against bowl teams (New Mexico, UCLA, Washington, Arizona) this year, West Virginia only has two wins (Georgia Southern, Texas Tech) against bowl teams.  And one of those was a lackluster 31-26 home win over Texas Tech.

The Mountaineers lost to all of the best teams they played this season.  None of them were close, either.  They lost by 20 to Oklahoma, by 7 to Oklahoma State, by 24 to Baylor and by 30 to TCU.  They also lost their season finale 23-24 to Kansas State.  I just believe this team is getting too much respect from oddsdmakers despite having not done anything this season.

This is a great matchup for the Sun Devils, too.  Their strength defensively is stopping the run, while WVU's strength offensively is running the ball.  WVU averages 235 rushing yards per game and 4.8 per carry.  But the Sun Devils only give up 125 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry against teams who average 193 yards per game and 4.6 per carry.  They will be up to the task of stopping the run here.

West Virginia is 0-9 ATS as a neutral field favorite since 1992.  It is losing in these spots by 6.1 points per game despite being the favorite in all nine.  The Mountaineers are 0-7 ATS as a neutral field favorite of 7 points or less since 1992.  They are losing in this spot by 12.5 points per game.

WVU is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games following a loss to a conference opponent.  The Mountaineers are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games vs. good offensive teams that score 34 or more points per game.  ASU is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games off a road cover where it lost straight up as an underdog.  Off that 2-point loss at Cal, the Sun Devils will be motivated to finish the season with a winning record instead of dropping to 6-7.  Take Arizona State Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves -1.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves are showing solid value today as small favorites over the Milwaukee Bucks.  They are undervalued because they have lost five of their last six games coming in.

But they have also played a very tough stretch of games having played San Antonio twice, Indiana, Boston on the road and Detroit on the road.  They did beat the Jazz at home 94-80 two games back, and the schedule lightens up tonight.

The Milwaukee Bucks simply are not very good this season.  They are 13-21 on the year, and they have been awful on the road.  They are just 4-15 in road games this season, getting outscored by 10.7 points per game.  They should not be getting this much respect from oddsmakers as a result.

Milwaukee is 16-42 ATS in its last 58 games off an upset win as an underdog against a division opponent.  The Bucks are 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.  Roll with the Timberwolves Saturday.

15* Iowa State/Oklahoma Big 12 No-Brainer on Iowa State +8

The Oklahoma Sooners are overvalued right now due to their 11-0 start to the season.  But their only significant win came against Villanova on a neutral court, otherwise they've played a very soft schedule outside of that game.

The Iowa State Cyclones suffered a bad loss to Northern Iowa.  But everything that could go wrong, did, as the Cyclones allowed 58% shooting as Northern Iowa simply could not miss from 3-point range.  But that loss has grounded this team, and they came back with a huge 81-79 upset win at Cincinnati as 5-point dogs their next time out.

Iowa State has won four of its last six meetings with Oklahoma with only one of its two losses coming by more than this 8-point margin.  The Cyclones are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game.  Iowa State is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five road games.  The Sooners are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games vs. Big 12 opponents.  Roll with Iowa State Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa +9

The betting public thinks that Iowa is going to have a letdown following its win over #1 Michigan State.  That would be the case if the Spartans were at full strength, but the Hawks were favored because Sparty didn't have their best player in Denzel Valentine.  The Hawks will show up in their first true Big Ten road game.

Iowa has lost three games this season, but all three came by 6 points or less on the road to quality opponents.  The Hawks lost to Dayton by 5, Notre Dame by 6, and Iowa State by 1.  They should have never lost to Iowa State as they blew a 20-point second half lead.

This has been a very closely-contested series in recent meetings, which is why there is a lot of value here with the Hawkeyes catching 9 points.  Each of the last seven meetings have been decided by 10 points or less, including six by 7 points or less.  The Hawkeyes haven't lost by more than 7 to the Boilermakers in any of those seven meetings.

Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (PURDUE) - bad pressure defensive team - forcing 12 or less turnovers/game, after four straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers are 98-50 ATS over the last five seasons.  The Hawkeyes are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight vs. Big Ten opponents.  Take Iowa Saturday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Syracuse +11

The Syracuse Orange are showing great value today as double-digit road underdogs to the Miami Hurricanes.  This is simply too many points today folks.

The Miami Hurricanes are having a great season as they're off to an 11-1 start.  They have taken advantage of a pretty easy schedule, though they do have a few good wins over Utah, Butler and Florida.  But they also lost to Northeastern 77-78 at home, so they are vulnerable.

The Orange check in off an 11-point loss at Pittsburgh, so they don't want to start ACC play 0-2.  I believe that 11-point loss is the reason they are getting 11 points here from Miami, but it's just too much as Pitt is a better team than Miami.

The road team has won each of the last two meetings between these teams.  The road team is 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Miami is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 home games vs. teams who win between 60% and 80% of their games.  The Hurricanes are 0-6 ATS in January home games over the last three seasons.  Bet Syracuse Saturday.

25* College Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Penn State +6.5

The Penn State Nittany Lions head into the bowl season undervalued because they have gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  Meanwhile, the Georgia Bulldogs come into the bowl season overvalued after going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  Those finishes to the regular season have forced oddsmakers to set this line higher than it should be because they know that the betting public wants nothing to do with Penn State right now.

The 16-55 loss to Michigan State certainly leaves an eye sore.  But a closer look at that game shows that it wasn't nearly as big of a blowout as the final score showed.  The Nittany Lions gave away that game by committing four turnovers, two of which were returned for touchdowns.  They were only outgained by the Spartans 418-436 for the game, or by 18 total yards.  The difference was clearly the turnovers.  But the Nittany Lions had only committed 13 turnovers in 11 games prior to that contest, so it was an aberration, and don't expect it to become a pattern now.

That finish to the season will certainly have the Nittany Lions extra motivated coming into this bowl game.  They want to right the ship and end the season on a winning note, and you can bet that head coach James Franklin will have his players ready to go on January 2nd as a result.  Franklin owns a 3-0 career record in bowl games, so he knows how to get his players prepared the right way.  While you can't question the motivation of the Nittany Lions, you can certainly question the motivation of the Bulldogs.

Indeed, Georgia will have an interim head coach for this game after Mark Richt was fired.  Richt has left the program to go coach at his alma mater in Miami.  The Bulldogs hired former Alabama defensive coordinator Kirby Smart.  Not only will Georgia be without Richt, it will also be without defensive coordinator Jeremy Pruitt, who took over Smart's previous role as the defensive coordinator at Alabama.  Plus, offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer won't coach in the bowl game either, leaving Georgia with a patchwork staff leading up to the game.

Receivers coach Bryan McClendon will take over as the interim coach, and I just cannot see this going well for the Bulldogs.  Few bowl teams undergo this many changes to their staff.  Losing your head coach, offensive coordinator and defensive coordinator is almost impossible to overcome.  You can see why this is my favorite play of the bowl season, ranked as my 25* College Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR!

I was not impressed with the way the Bulldogs closed out the season even though they won four straight.  Their wins came against Kentucky, Auburn, Georgia Southern and Georgia Tech.  They only beat Auburn by 7, needed overtime to beat Georgia Southern at home, and only beat Georgia Tech by 6.  While they may find a way to win this game, too, asking them to do so by a touchdown or more to beat us is asking too much.

The Bulldogs just don't have the firepower on offense to put away the Nittany Lions.  They have been held to an average of just 14.8 points per game at the end of regulation in their last six games overall.  They were held to 3 by Florida, 9 by Missouri, 13 by Georgia Tech and 17 by Georgia Southern in four of those games.  It's not going to get any easier for this Georgia offense against a Penn State defense that is one of the best units in the country.

The Nittany Lions only allow 21.7 points, 325 yards per game and 4.8 per play against teams that average 28.3 points, 386 yards per game and 5.5 per play.  I know the Penn State offense has struggled like Georgia, but the extra bowl practice will help the offensive line work on its problems.  Plus, QB Christian Hackenburg wants one big performance here to improve his draft stock after it plummeted throughout the regular season.

Penn State also falls into a proven bowl system that tells us to bet on teams entering the bowl season on an extended losing streak.  Since 1984, teams entering bowls on at least a three-game losing streak are 27-15 ATS, including 16-8 ATS if their opponent is coming off a straight up win.  The Nittany Lions are the only team that qualifies this year.  These teams on 3-game skids have been consistently undervalued.

Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (PENN ST) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 37-13 (74%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet Penn State Saturday.

20* Ole Miss/Oklahoma State Sugar Bowl BAILOUT on Ole Miss -7

The Oklahoma State Cowboys might be the biggest frauds in all of college football.  Yes, they had a chance to win the Big 12 in the season finale, but their true colors showed against the best teams they played this season.  Let's also not forget that this team struggled to beat suspect competition with an 11-point win over Central Michigan, a 3-point win over Texas, a 2-point win over Kansas State and a 4-point win over Iowa State.

But the most telling story about the Cowboys is their performance against the top three teams in the Big 12 in TCU, Baylor and Oklahoma.  They gave up 29 points and 663 yards to TCU, 45 points and 700 yards to Baylor, and 58 points and 524 yards to Oklahoma.  So, against those three teams, they allowed averages of 44.0 points and 629.0 yards per game.

Conversely, Ole Miss is one of the most underrated teams in the country.  It was the only team to beat Alabama this season, and it even did so in Tuscaloosa.  The Rebels had some mental lapses in a few losses this season to Memphis, Florida and Arkansas, but this is easily the second-best team in the SEC.  It took a fluke fourth-and-25 lateral play in overtime by Arkansas to beat the Rebels, and had they won that game, the Rebels would be your 2015 SEC champs.

Oklahoma State's suspect defense now has to go up against what I believe to be the best offense in the SEC.  The Rebels average 40.2 points, 515 yards per game and 7.0 per play against teams that give up 29.6 points, 402 yards per game and 5.8 per play.  They put up 43 points on Alabama, 52 on Arkansas, 38 on LSU and 38 on Mississippi State.  I would say that is getting it done against those four defenses.

Plus, it's not like the Rebels are slouches defensively.  They have a well above-average defense that gives up 22.8 points, 387 yards per game and 4.9 per play against teams that average 28.1 points, 406 yards per game and 5.9 per play.  They will be up against a good-but-not-great Oklahoma State offense that average 6.5 yards per play against teams that allow 5.9 per play.

Oklahoma State only beat only one ranked team this season (TCU), and it was outgained by 207 yards by the Horned Frogs.  Ole Miss beat four ranked teams at the time they played them in Alabama, LSU, Mississippi State and Texas A&M.  The return of future first-round pick Laremy Tunsil at left tackle late in the year gave the Rebels' offensive line a boost, and I look for this offense to shred Oklahoma State's suspect defense while putting up a big number in this one.

Ole Miss has done very well when oddsmakers are expecting a high-scoring game.  The Rebels are 6-0 ATS when the total is between 63.5 and 70 points over the last three seasons, winning these games by an average of 24.3 points per game.  The Rebels are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games with a total set of 63 or higher as well.  Oklahoma State is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 after having won 8 or more of its last 10 games.  The Rebels are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight neutral site games.  Ole Miss is 24-8-1 ATS in its last 33 non-conference games.  Roll with Ole Miss Friday.

20* Iowa/Stanford Rose Bowl No-Brainer on Iowa +7

Iowa didn't get much respect all season, and that certainly hasn't changed here as the oddsmakers have pegged them as 7-point underdogs to the Stanford Cardinal.  They were 27 seconds away from a 13-0 season and a trip to the four-team playoff, but they still aren't getting any credit.  Look for the Hawkeyes to be playing with a chip on their shoulder in this game against Stanford as a result.

The Hawkeyes have never won the Rose Bowl, so they certainly won't be lacking any motivation anyways.  Fans are so excited that they are forking over some large cash to make the trip to Pasadena, and there will be more black and gold there than Cardinal fans as a result.  The Hawkeyes are expected to get at least 60,000 fans to Pasadena for their first Rose Bowl in 25 years.

Stanford lost 6-16 at Northwestern, while Iowa beat Northwestern 40-10 on the road.  That right there gives these teams a common opponent that lets you know that the Hawkeyes should not only be able to hang with the Cardinal, but to pull off the upset, too.  The Big Ten in general just never gets much respect from anyone outside of Ohio State.  But they have been a great bet in bowl games in recent years because of this false public perception of them.

This is a great matchup for the Hawkeyes.  They won't be overmatched athletically like they would be if, say, USC was the opponent in the Rose Bowl.  Both the Hawkeyes and Cardinal are similar teams who run the ball and stop the run, it's just that I believe the Hawkeyes do it better.

Iowa rushed for 192 yards per game while Stanford rushed for 225 per game.  So, the key is going to be which teams stops the run better.  The Hawkeyes only allow 115 rushing yards per game and 3.4 per carry, while the Cardinal give up 146 rushing yards per game and 4.6 per carry.  Overall, the Hawkeys give up 18.5 points, 334 yards per game and 4.8 per play, while the Cardinal give up 23.1 points, 375 yards per game and 5.7 per play.

The Hawkeyes are a tough team to blow out because they play such sound football.  They run the ball, stop the run, and take care of the football, and CJ Beathard is a better quarterback than he gets credit for.  You know when you bet the Hawkeyes that they aren't going to beat themselves.  They have only committed 14 turnovers in 13 games this season.  Conversely, they have forced 26 turnovers this year for a +12 differential.  CJ Bethard has thrown 15 touchdown passes against four interceptions in 13 games this year, while also rushing for 270 yards and six scores.

Iowa got some good news prior to the Rose Bowl with a healthy return of running back Jordan Canzeri, who was knocked out of the 13-16 loss to Michigan State early with an ankle injury.  While the Hawkeyes have two other capable backs in LeShun Daniels (609 yards, 8 TD) and Akrum Wadley (463 yards, 6.3 per carry, 7 TD), Canzeri (976 yards, 5.5/carry, 12 TD) is their most complete back.  Whoever is running the football should find plenty of success against a Stanford defense that allows 4.6 yards per carry.

Iowa is 8-1 ATS in road games after a game where it forced one or fewer turnovers over the last three seasons.  The Hawkeyes are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games vs. teams who score 37 or more points per game.  Iowa is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games vs. teams who average 5.9 or more yards per play.  Kirk Ferentz is 33-11 ATS versus good rushing teams that average 200 or more rushing yards per game as the head coach at Iowa.  Take Iowa Friday.

20* Tennessee/Northwestern Outback Bowl Early ANNIHILATOR on Tennessee -8

We saw last year in the bowl game how Tennessee crushed Iowa 45-28 in a game that wasn't even that close.  It was yet another example of a Big Ten team being outmatched athletically by an SEC team.  The Volunteers used their team speed and did whatever they wanted to offensively against the Hawkeyes.  I look for this one to play out exactly the same way as Northwestern doesn't have the athletes to match up.

I was very high on Tennessee coming into the season because this was Butch Jones' most talented team yet, and a team that returned 18 starters.  The Volunteers didn't disappoint, because believe it or not, they nearly went 12-0 this year.  All four of their losses came by 7 points or less.  They just had some bad fortune in close games against some of the best teams in the country.

The Vols lost in double-overtime 24-31 to Oklahoma after blowing a 17-3 lead in the 4th quarter.  They lost 20-24 to Arkansas after blowing a 14-0 lead.  They lost 27-28 to Florida after blowing a 27-14 lead in the final five minutes.  And they lost 14-19 at Alabama after holding a 14-13 lead with under three minutes to play.  As you can see, they played two playoff teams in Oklahoma & Alabama right down to the wire, a solid Arkansas team, and SEC East champ Florida. They easily could have won all four of those games.

But instead of being down about their poor fortune in those close games, the Volunteers got pissed off and played their best football of the season down the stretch.  They went 5-0 in their last five games overall with a 31-point win over Kentucky, a 3-point win over South Carolina, a 24-point win over North Texas, an 11-point win at Missouri and a 25-point win over Vanderbilt.

Northwestern might be the most overrated team in the country with its No. 13 ranking.  Oddsmakers agree in listing the 23rd-ranked Vols as 8-point favorites here.  The Wildcats have been winning ugly all season.  That works against suspect Big Ten competition, but it does not work against good teams.  That was evident in the 38-0 loss at Michigan and the 40-10 home loss to Iowa.  But the Wildcats are in for their stiffest challenge yet here because of the disadvantage they'll be at athletically.

Both teams have solid defenses as the Vols give up 21.2 points per game while the Wildcats surrender 16.4 points per game.  The Wildcats would have had a hard time only giving up 21.2 points per game against the schedule that Tennessee played.  So even though the Wildcats have the better numbers defensively, I don't believe they are the better defensive team.

The one thing that can't be argued is that Tennessee is head and shoulders better than Northwestern on offense.  The Vols put up 34.3 points per game this season.  The Wildcats managed to win 10 games despite only averaging 20.7 points, 333 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play this year.  Once the Wildcats get behind in this one, they aren't going to have the firepower to catch up, just as Iowa didn't against Tennessee in last year's bowl game.

Tennessee just beat Vanderbilt 53-28 in the season finale.  That is a Vanderbilt team that plays a similar style to Northwestern, relying on great defense to make up for suspect offense.  Well, the Vols racked up 53 points and 527 total yards on that good Vanderbilt defense, and the Commodores couldn't do anything to catch up.  The Wildcats average 13 completions, 50.2% passing and 139 passing yards per game this season.  That's not going to get it done.

I'd much rather put my money on Joshua Dobbs and this Tennessee offense.  Dobbs has thrown for 2,125 yards and 15 touchdowns against five interceptions, while also rushing for 623 yards and nine scores.  Jalen Hurd and Alvin Kamara give the Vols a great 1-2 punch in the backfield.  Hurd has rushed for 1,155 yards and 11 touchdowns, while Kamara has chipped in 645 yards and six scores while averaging 6.7 per carry.  Bet Tennessee Friday.

15* Michigan State/Alabama Cotton Bowl No-Brainer on Alabama -9.5

The Alabama Crimson Tide are on a mission heading into the four-team playoff.  Nick Saban is on record of saying that this team is a lot more focused than last year's squad that lost to eventual national champion, Ohio State.  I believe the business-like approach they are taking will have them ready to make easy work of the overmatched Michigan State Spartans in the Cotton Bowl.

This is big brother vs. little brother.  Mark Dantonio worked under Nick Saban before getting the job at Michigan State.  Dantonio calls Saban his mentor.  And while he has had success running a similar program to Saban at Alabama, he just doesn't do it quite as well.  That was evident a few years back when Saban's Alabama team crushed Michigan State 49-7 in the 2011 Capital One Bowl.  Another beat down can be expected here.

Alabama is back to having the best defense in the country.  It gives up just 14.4 points, 258 yards per game and 4.1 per play against teams that average 28.7 points, 398 yards per game and 5.7 per play.  The going is going to be very tough for Connor Cook and a Michigan State offense that is only averaging 397 yards per game and 5.6 per play against teams that give up 389 yards per game and 5.6 per play.

This is just an average Michigan State offense, and Cook doesn't have enough playmakers outside to have any kind of success against this Alabama defense.  The Spartans don't run the football well as they average just 4.0 yards per carry against teams that give up 4.3 per carry.  That won't change against an Alabama defense that allows 74 rushing yards per game and 2.4 per carry against teams that average 173 yards per game and 4.4 per carry.  The Crimson Tide have the best front seven in the country.

Alabama's offense has been better than it gets credit for, too.  It is putting up 34.1 points, 423 yards per game and 5.8 per play against teams that only give up 25.2 points, 366 yards per game and 5.3 per play.  Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry just keeps getting better as the games get bigger.  He has rushed for 1,986 yards and 23 touchdowns while averaging 5.9 per carry.  He had 189 against Florida, 271 against Auburn, 204 against Mississippi State and 210 against LSU in his last four SEC games.

Michigan State was so fortunate to even make the four-team playoff.  It needed a miracle punt block TD on the final play of the game to beat Michigan, needed to control the ball for almost 40 minutes to beat Ohio State by 3, and needed a last-second TD to beat Iowa.  It also let poor teams like Rutgers (31-24) and Purdue (24-21) hang around.  Now the Spartans face by far their stiffest test of the season in the Cotton Bowl, and I believe they will be exposed.

Alabama's loss to Ole Miss early in the season may have been the best team that could happen to this team.  It got them refocused and back to playing the best football in the country.  The Crimson Tide won each of their final 10 games of the season with nine of those wins coming by double-digits.  They aren't about to let up now.

Alabama beat Wisconsin 35-17 on a neutral field in the season opener and outgained the Badgers 502-268, or by 234 total yards.  That win improved the Crimson Tide to 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. Big Ten opponents.  Alabama is 6-1 ATS in its last seven vs. teams with winning records.  The Spartans are 0-4 ATS in their last four non-conference games.  Take Alabama Thursday.

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on New Orleans Pelicans -3

This is an awful spot for the Los Angeles Clippers.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 5th road game in 7 days and are running on fumes right now.  They won't have anything left to give tonight against the Pelicans.

That's especially the case since they're already short-handed without arguably their best player in Blake Griffin.  They won 122-117 in Charlotte last night in a fast-paced game.  On tired legs tonight, I look for Chris Paul, J.J. Redick and company to really struggle tonight on the offensive end, and to have little effort left to give on defensive.

The Pelicans have been playing better since head coach Alvin Gentry called out his players for their last of effort.  They have won three of their last five games since that occurred with one of their losses coming on the road at Miami in overtime.

The Pelicans have won four of their last five home games, including an upset win over the Cleveland Cavaliers.  They have one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the league.  And home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is a perfect 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Clippers are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 visits to New Orleans.  Roll with the Pelicans Thursday.

20* Clemson/Oklahoma Orange Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma -3.5

I believe Oklahoma is the most complete team in the playoff.  It has been dominant on both sides of the football, and it comes in playing better than anyone in the country.  The Sooners have gone 7-0 in their last seven games overall with six of those wins coming by double-digits.  What makes that most impressive is that the Sooners played their toughest Big 12 opponents down the stretch.

They went on the road and beat Baylor 44-34, topped TCU 30-29 at home in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score showed, and then went on the road and beat Oklahoma State 58-23 in its final three games of the season.  The Sooners have outgained seven straight opponents, including five of them by 146 or more total yards.

The offense is putting up 45.7 points per game, 543 yards per game and 7.0 per play against opposing defenses that allow 30.8 points, 440 yards per game and 5.8 per play.  Baker Mayfield deserved to be in the Heisman Trophy discussion as this guy just makes all the plays.  He is completing 68.6 percent of his passes for 3,389 yards with 35 touchdowns against five interceptions.  He has also rushed for 420 yards and seven scores as he's an underrated runner.

While the offensive improvement behind Mayfield has been a big reason for Oklahoma's success, it's the defense that doesn't get enough credit.  The Sooners had the best defense in the Big 12 this season.  They allowed just 20.7 points per game, 352 yards per game and 4.7 per play against opposing offenses that averaged 33.5 points, 455 yards per game and 6.0 per play.  This is one of the top defenses in the country.

Clemson played in the much weaker ACC this season.  It put up 38.5 points per game this year, which is less than Oklahoma.  It is right on par with Oklahoma in terms of scoring defense at 20.2 points per game, but not when you consider that opposing offenses faced only averaged 28.7 points per game.  The Tigers played a much easier slate of opposing offenses, and I believe their defense has been overrated all season because of it.

I was not impressed with the Tigers down the stretch.  They went 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  They failed to cover the 12.5-point spread in a 10-point win over FSU, only beat Syracuse by 10 as a 30-point favorite, only beat Wake Forest by 20 as a 29-point favorite, and only beat South Carolina by 5 as a 20.5-point favorite.  They did cover the 6.5-point spread in an 8-point win over UNC in the ACC Championship Game, but if the refs had not called a phantom offsides penalty on the Tar Heels on an onside kick that they recovered, that result might have been different.

This Clemson defense is not as good as it gets credit for.  It faced plenty of mediocre offensive teams and gave up a lot of points this season.  Over their final six games, the Tigers allowed 41 points to NC State, 27 to Syracuse, 32 to South Carolina and 37 to UNC.  That's not a championship defense like the one Oklahoma has.  Plus, the Sooners played the toughest non-conference schedule of any of the bowl teams with games against fellow bowl teams in Akron, Tennessee & Tulsa.

Oklahoma wants revenge from the blowout bowl loss to Clemson last year, which is added motivation.  Oklahoma is 7-0 ATS in road games off a win by 21 or points points over the last two seasons.  Clemson is 8-20 ATS off five or more consecutive wins since 1992.  Plays on any team (OKLAHOMA) - an excellent offensive team (34 PPG or more) against a good defensive team (16-21 PPG) after 7+ games, after a win by 35 or more points are 39-11 (78%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet Oklahoma Thursday.

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Providence +7.5

The Providence Friars are one of the best-kept secrets in college basketball.  They have gotten off to a 12-1 start this season behind three absolute studs in Ben Bentil (18.8 ppg, 8.0 rpg), Kris Dunn (16.5 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 7.3 apg) and Rodney Bullock (13.6 ppg, 7.5 rpg).

The only loss the Friars have suffered this year came against #1 Michigan State by 13 on a neutral court.  But they have beaten both Evansville (by 10) and Arizona (by 4) on a neutral court, as well as Rhode Island (by 2) and UMass (by 24) in its two true road games this season.  I really like what I've seen from the Friars and believe that they will give Butler a run for its money today.

Butler is also a solid team at 11-1 this season, but it should not be favored by 7.5 points here.  It comes in overvalued due to three straight ATS wins.  Tennessee only lost by 8 at Butler, which was the toughest opponent that the Bulldogs have faced at home this year.  They struggled to beat Temple (by 5) and lost to Miami (by 10) on a neutral court this year.

I really believe that home-court advantage means nothing in this series when you look at recent results.  The road team is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings.  Providence won 66-62 at Butler as 6-point dogs last season and 87-81 as 1.5-point dogs two years ago.  The Friars have actually won three of the last four meetings with their only loss coming by 4 points.

The Friars are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games.  Providence is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Friars are 10-2 ATS off two straight games where they committed 11 or fewer turnovers over the last two seasons.  Take Providence Thursday.

15* Xavier/Villanova Big East Early ANNIHILATOR on Xavier +4.5

The Xavier Musketeers just don't get the respect they deserve.  This team is arguably the best in the entire country, yet they don't get a lot of national attention.  They are out to prove that their run to the Elite 8 last year was no fluke like many believed it was.  So far, so good as far as proving it.

The Musketeers have gone 12-0 SU & 9-3 ATS in their 12 games this season, including a perfect 8-0 ATS run over their last eight games.  They've gone on the road and beaten Michigan (by 16) and Wake Forest (by 8).  They've also crushed Alabama (by 19), USC (by 10) and Dayton (by 29) on a neutral court.  And they've beaten Cincinnati (by 10) at home.  Those results show that they are the real deal.

Villanova is solid again this year at 10-2.  But it has lost to the two best teams it played, and it was thoroughly outplayed in both contests.  The Wildcats lost to Oklahoma (by 23) on a neutral court and to Virginia (by 11) on the road.  They really don't have a quality win yet as their best victories came over Georgia Tech and Stanford on a neutral court.

Xavier wants revenge on Villanova after losing all three meetings with the Wildcats last year, and five straight in this series overall.  I believe they will be playing with extra motivation because of it.  The Musketeers will also be the fresher team.  They last played on December 22 against Wake Forest.  Meanwhile, the Wildcats last played on December 28 against Pennsylvania, having just two days to prepare for the Musketeers.  That's a huge scheduling advantage for Xavier here.

The Musketeers are 43-21-1 ATS in their last 65 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Xavier is 11-1 ATS vs. teams who shoot 45% or better and allow 42% or worse over the last three seasons.  Again, the Musketeers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They should not be underdogs here.  Bet Xavier Thursday.

15* Wisconsin/USC Holiday Bowl BAILOUT on USC -3

One of my favorite tools for handicapping bowl games is strength of schedule.  Well, Holiday Bowl between USC and Wisconsin is one of the biggest SOS mismatches of the bowl season.  The Trojans played the 3rd-toughest schedule in the country, while the Badgers played the 70th-toughest.

USC has played Stanford (twice), Notre Dame, Utah, Oregon and UCLA among others.  It's amazing that the Trojans managed to win the tough Pac-12 South division with the schedule they had to endure.  They were competitive in almost every game they played, too, and they are certainly a more talented team than the Badgers.

Wisconsin went 9-3 this year, but it clearly wasn't as good as its record.  It lost to the three best teams it played in Alabama, Iowa (at home) and Northwestern (at home).  Its nine wins came against Miami Ohio, Troy, Hawaii, Nebraska, Purdue, Illinois, Rutgers, Maryland and Minnesota.  All nine of those teams finished with losing records.

USC is far and away the superior offensive team in this one.  It averages 34.9 points, 449.6 yards per game and 6.3 per play against teams that give up 28.5 points, 416 yards per game and 5.7 per play.  Wisconsin only averages 27.1 points, 377 yards per game and 5.3 per play against teams that give up 27.3 points, 383 yards per game and 5.4 per play.

Senior QB Cody Kessler wants to end his career a winner.  He is completing 67.6 percent of his passes for 3,315 yards with 28 touchdowns and only six interceptions this season.  The Trojans also boast a two-headed monster at running back in Ronald Jones (940 yards, 6.5/carry, 8 TD) and Justin Davis (875 yards, 5.6/carry, 5 TD).

This was not a typical season for Wisconsin offensively.  The Badgers rushed for 320 yards per game and 6.9 per carry last year, but fell all the way down to 148 per game and 3.8 per carry this season.  They will struggle to move the ball against a USC defense that is better than advertised.  The Trojans give up 25.9 points, 401 yards per game and 5.7 per play against teams that average 34.5 points, 452 yards per game and 6.2 per play.

Clay Helton got his long-term contract from the Trojans and there is now some stability with the program, finally.  He led them to a bowl win last year.  Wisconsin's Paul Chryst is just 1-2 in bowl games as a head coach.  USC is one of my favorite teams to back off a loss.  The Trojans are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss, coming back to win by 18.3 points per game.  Take USC Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Philadelphia +10

The Philadelphia 76ers have been much more competitive here of late, and I look for that to continue as they give the Sacramento Kings a run for their money tonight and stay within single-digits.

The 76ers have covered their last two against the spread.  They won outright at Phoenix 111-104 as 11.5-point underdogs, and then came back with a 91-95 loss at Utah as 8-point dogs.  The 76ers are finally getting healthy as Jahlil Okafor is expected to play tonight.  They don't have anyone else listed on the injury report aside from Joel Embid, who is out for the season with a foot injury.

The Kings shouldn't be this heavily favored against anyone.  They have lost three of their last four with their only win coming by two points.  They could be without DeMarcus Cousins tonight as he faced a possible suspension.  That would only be an added bonus.  They are already without Willie Cauley-Stein and could be without Kosta Koufos as well.

The 76ers played the Kings very tough last year, winning 114-107 at home as 4.5-point dogs, and only losing 106-107 on the road as 8.5-point dogs. Philadelphia is now 13-3 ATS in its last 16 meetings with Sacramento, including a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last seven road meetings.

Sacramento is 12-23 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons.  Philadelphia is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following an ATS win.  The 76ers are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. Western Conference opponents.  The Kings are 11-29-2 ATS in their last 42 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  Take the 76ers Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Minnesota Timberwolves -2

I'll gladly fade the Utah Jazz, who are dealing with a plethora of injuries right now.  They are without two starters in Alec Burks and Rudy Gobert.  They could also be without a 3rd starter tonight in Derrick Favors, who missed their lackluster 95-91 home win over the 76ers last time out.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are hungry for a win tonight after losing four straight coming in.  But those four losses came to the Celtics, Pacers and Spurs (twice), and they even hung with the Spurs in a 95-101 road loss as 13.5-point dogs last time out.  Look for the Timberwolves to get back in the win column tonight now that they take a step down in competition.

The Jazz are 5-9 on the road this season and should not be getting this much respect from oddsmakers given the state of their team health-wise.  The Timberwolves are basically at full strength heading into this one, which will be a huge advantage.  They should dominate in the paint with Gobert and possibly Favors out for the Jazz.  Bet the Timberwolves Wednesday.

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Bradley +20.5

The Bradley Braves are way undervalued here as 20.5-point road underdogs to the Northern Iowa Panthers in their Missouri Valley opener.  I'll gladly grab all the points I can get with the Braves here as there's little chance they lose by 21-plus points.

Bradley is just 2-11 this season while playing a brutal schedule that has featured games against Arizona, Virginia, Seton Hall, Ole Miss, UT-Arlington, Boise State and TCU.  Yet, the Braves have only lost by more than 20 points four times this season.

The Panthers are probably still feeling the after-effects of a 3-game trip to Hawaii over Christmas and cannot be fully prepared for this game.  They played three games against Hawaii, Washington State and BYU and lost two of the three with their only win coming by 4 points.  UNI only has two wins by more than 20 points this season.  Roll with Bradley Wednesday.

20* Louisville/Texas A&M Music City Bowl No-Brainer on Texas A&M +4.5

The oddsmakers opened Texas A&M as 3-point favorites for this Music City Bowl over Louisville.  Now, with the news that quarterbacks Kyle Allen and Kyler Murray have transferred, they've moved this line a whopping 7.5 points to Texas A&M +4.5.  I would still like the Aggies at -3, and I certainly love them catching 4.5 points here.

Now the Aggies will be playing with a chip on their shoulder in the role of the underdog.  They will be going with junior college transfer Jake Hubenak as their starter, and I like what I'm hearing about this kid.  I actually think this may be addition by subtraction not only for this game, but for the long run for the Aggies.

Allen and Murray were two quarterbacks who were promised playing time by the staff, which is why they were both so frustrated when they couldn't get that playing time consistently.  It's no surprise that they transferred.  They are two players who just want everything given to them instead of earning it, and they certainly didn't earn the playing time they were given.

Hubenak grew up wanting to be an Aggie and then earned his way up.  He went 19-1 as a starter in high school.  He walked on at Oklahoma State and played last season at Blinn College, where he threw for 4,052 yards and 47 touchdowns.  Breaking in new quarterbacks is nothing new for Kevin Sumlin.  Jameil Showers and Matt Davis left the program in 2013, while Kenny Hill and Matt Joeckel left in 2014.  This is a system where you can almost plug in any quarterback.

"I've said all along that I think he could get the job done for us," center Mike Matthews said of Hubenak. "He's been put in that role now and I have no doubt that he will do great for us. It helps that he's an easy guy to rally around. He's a hard-working guy and the team likes him a lot. It's kind of hard not to get along with him and it's easy to follow his lead."

The good news for Hubenak is he has boatloads of talent around him, so he won't be asked to do too much.  Sumlin has recruited very well along the offensive line and at the skill positions.  In fact, this is one of the most talented receiver corps in the country.  All Hubenak needs to do is get the ball into his playmakers' hands in space, and they will do the work for him.

Plus, the Aggies have the best defense that they've had in the Sumlin era.  The addition of former LSU coordinator John Chavis has made a huge difference.  The Aggies are only giving up 21.6 points, 367.2 yards per game and 5.2 per play against teams that average 27.8 points, 403 yards per game and 5.8 per play.  This is actually one of the better defenses in the SEC now.

They thrive against the pass, allowing just 161 passing yards per game and 5.8 per attempt on the season.  They are 20th in the nation in sacks per game (2.75), which doesn't bode well for a Louisville offense that ranks 126th in the country in sacks allowed  per game (3.67).

Louisville doesn't wow you offensively as it averages a mediocre 28.8 points, 406 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play.  Its defense is above average, but it is still giving up 24.3 points per game against teams that average 26.3.  The Aggies played a much tougher schedule this season and will be more battle-tested than the Cardinals.  They will also have a lot more talent on the field as they have 10 NFL prospects to Louisville's 5.  Bet Texas A&M Wednesday.

15* Michigan State/Iowa Big Ten Opener on Iowa -3

The oddsmakers know something here by having the Iowa Hawkeyes favored over the No. 1 team in the country in the Michigan State Spartans.  They expect the Hawkeyes to win, and are trying to get some money on the Spartans by making the Hawks favored.  That shouldn't be a problem considering the betting public loves ranked teams.

Indeed, roughly 67% of the bets as of this writing are coming in on Michigan State, yet the line has moved from Iowa -2 to Iowa -3.  So this reverse line movement shows us that the big money is on the Hawkeyes, and I totally agree that it should be given the situation.

Michigan State is playing without its best player in Denzel Valentine.  The Spartans secured their best start (13-0) in franchise history last time out, but it wasn't easy without him.  They needed overtime to escape with a 99-93 win over Oakland, and a 7-for-9 from 3-point range shooting effort out of Bryn Forbes.  They aren't going to get that again from him.

Iowa has really impressed me this season.  It blew out both Marquette (89-61) and Wichita State (84-61) on the road, while also beating a very good Florida State (78-75) team at home.  Its three losses have all come by 6 points or less on the road to Dayton (77-82), Notre Dame (62-68) and Iowa State (82-83).  It should have beaten Iowa State as it blew a 20-point lead in that game on the road at Hilton Coliseum, which is one of the toughest places to play in the country.  The Cyclones are currently the #11 ranked team in the land.

The Hawkeyes will be extremely motivated to end a 9-game losing streak to the Spartans.  They blew an 11-point halftime lead at home to Michigan State last year, and these players have not forgotten.  Look for them to be playing with some extra motivation here as a result, and for the home crowd to be a big influence as the No. 1 team in the country visits Iowa City tonight.

Tom Izzo is just 10-19 ATS as a road underdog of 3 points or less as the coach of Michigan State.  Fran McCaffery is 36-22 ATS as a home favorite as the coach of Iowa.  The Hawkeyes are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven vs. Big Ten opponents.  Roll with Iowa Tuesday.

15* NBA Tuesday Total DOMINATOR on Pistons/Knicks UNDER 200

The books have set the bar way too high in this contest between the Detroit Pistons and New York Knicks.  There are several reasons to love the UNDER in this one, not the least of which is the fact that this is the second-highest total set in the last 14 meetings between these teams.  They are used to playing low-scoring games when they get together.

Indeed, 9 of the last 10 meetings between the Knicks and Pistons have seen 193 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation.  Only once did they reach 200 points, and that was a 202-point effort in the final meeting last year when neither team had anything to play for in mid-April.  They have combined for an average of just 182.3 points per game at the end of regulation in their last 10 meetings, which is roughly 18 points less than tonight's posted total of 200.

Both teams prefer to play at a slow tempo as the Knicks rank 23rd in pace at 96.7 possessions per game while the Pistons are 18th (98.0).  Both teams also struggle offensively as the Knicks rank 24th in offensive efficiency while the Pistons are 23rd.  The Pistons are 10th in defensive efficiency while the Knicks are 16th.

The UNDER is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.  The UNDER is 16-4 in Pistons last 20 road games after playing two consecutive games as an underdog.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Knicks last four games following an ATS loss.  Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

20* Baylor/UNC Russell Athletic Bowl ANNIHILATOR on North Carolina -3

The Baylor Bears were picked by many to win the Big 12 this year with aspirations of playing in the four-team playoff after finishing No. 5 in the playoff rankings at the end of the regular season last year.  But injuries really hurt this team, their season ended with back-to-back losses to TCU and Texas.

That loss to Texas was real bad because it was at home and the Bears were 21-point favorites.  Now the Bears want no part of this Russell Athletic Bowl after expectations were to win the Big 12 and play in a much bigger bowl game coming into the season.  Plus, the Bears don't have the manpower now.

The Bears are down to third-string quarterback Chris Johnson, who did not play well at all in the final two games.  They are without star receiver Corey Coleman, who won the Biletnikoff Award as the nation's top receiver.  His 1,363 receiving yards and FBS-best 20 touchdown receptions will be missed.  Also out is star running back Shock Linwood, who rushed for 1,329 yards and 6.8 per attempt.

North Carolina went 11-2 this season and won the ACC Coastal.  The Tar Heels nearly upset No. 1 Clemson in the ACC Championship Game, and if not for a fluke offsides penalty on an onside kick that they recovered, they may have beaten the Tigers.  Now they'll be going for their 12th win, and senior QB Marquise Williams certainly wants to go out with a victory.

Williams led an offense that puts up 40.9 points and 486.9 yards per game.  He threw for 2,829 yards and 21 touchdowns, while also rushing for 867 yards and 11 scores.  There's no question that the Tar Heels are going to be the much better offensive team in this one.  Plus, Elijah Hood rushed for 1,345 yards and 17 touchdowns this season, so this is a balanced attack.

While the UNC offense is explosive, the improvement on defense was the biggest reason for the turnaround for the Tar Heels.  They only give up 22.6 points per game against teams that average 25.8 points per game.  They also only allow 5.3 yards per play against teams that average 5.5 per play.  This is now an above-average defense, and a lot of the credit has to go to first-year coordinator Gene Chizik.

Baylor is 2-14 ATS in its last 16 games off three consecutive games where it committed three or more turnovers.  The Tar Heels are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. teams with winning records.  The Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  Baylor coach Art Briles is 2-8 SU & 3-7 ATS in bowl games.  Bet North Carolina Tuesday.

20* Bengals/Broncos ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Denver -3

The Denver Broncos will be playing with a chip on their shoulder this week when they host the Cincinnati Bengals on Monday Night Football. They have simply given away their last two games, but that’s going to work in our favor here because of the determination they’ll be playing with. They still have everything in front of them as a first-round bye will be theirs if they win out. So don’t expect them to just fold.

The Broncos lost to the Raiders 12-15 at home despite outgaining them by 184 yards and limiting them to just 126 yards of total offense. They did not score a single point in the second half of that game. That is about as fluky of a loss as there is. Then last week they lost 27-34 on the road to the Steelers. That’s not a bad loss with how well the Steelers are playing right now, but is stings considering they had a 27-10 lead before getting shut out in the second half again.

But now the Broncos get to take a step down in competition and return to the friendly confines of Sports Authority Field at Mile High, where they have one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL. Now they get to take on a Bengals team that lost at home 20-33 to the Steelers two weeks ago. But the Bengals are getting too much respect for their 24-14 win at San Francisco last week. They were actually outgained by 76 yards by the 49ers as this game wasn’t as big of a blowout as the final score seemed.

The Bengals are dealing with a ton of injuries right now on offense. Andy Dalton is out for the season, leading touchdown catcher Tyler Eifert is questionable with a concussion, and A.J. Green has a back injury. AJ McCarron didn’t even play that well last week, but he’s getting a lot of praise. The Bengals managed just 242 total yards against an awful San Francisco defense with 68 rushing and 174 passing.

Now McCarron and company will meet their match against the league’s best defense. The Broncos rank 1st in the NFL in total defense, giving up 279.9 yards per game, which is 22.3 yards per game better than second place. They rank 1st against the pass (200.0 yards/game) and 1st against the run (79.9 yards/game). If that’s not domination, then I don’t know what is. Look for this defense to be the reason the Broncos get out of here with a much-needed victory by 4-plus points to cover this 3-point spread.

Everyone is making a big deal about whether or not Peyton Manning or Brock Osweiler will start this week. I think that controversy has been the reason for this line dropping all the way down to 3. But it’s not going to matter who is under center because this offense has proven it can do enough to win with either QB under center. That’s because they have the best defense in the NFL. The Broncos still rank 4th in the league in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 62.6 yards per game. Only the Cardinals, Seahawks and Patriots have been better.

Plays on favorites (DENVER) – off a road loss, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are 49-22 (69%) ATS over the last five seasons. Plays on favorites (DENVER) – off a road loss, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season are 33-12 (73.3%) ATS over the last five years. Denver is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games after allowing 50 or less rushing yards in two straight games. It is winning in this spot by 21.9 points per game. The Broncos are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up loss.  Bet the Broncos Monday.

15* NBA Monday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Bulls -1.5

The Chicago Bulls are showing excellent value as small home favorites against the Toronto Raptors tonight.  We'll gladly take advantage and back the Bulls as they pretty much just have to win this game to cover the spread.

The Bulls are a solid 11-5 at home this season.  But they come in undervalued due to having lost four of their last five games, including two by exactly 3 points.  But they did beat the Thunder 105-96 on the road on Christmas Day to show their potential, and I believe they'll live up to their potential tonight as they'll be motivated to turn this recent poor run around.

What you have to like about this game is that Chicago has owned Toronto.  The Bulls are a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings with the Raptors.  The last two have resulted in double-digit wins in favor of the Bulls with a 13-point road win and a 16-point home win.

Toronto is 5-17 ATS when playing 6 or less games in 14 days over the last two seasons.  The Raptors are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a ATS win.  Bet the Bulls Monday.

15* CBB Monday PLAY OF THE DAY on Belmont +3.5

This one is pretty simple folks.  The Belmont Bruins are going to be out for revenge after losing 57-61 at Valparaiso on December 3 earlier this month.  After that 4-point road loss, I like them to win this rematch outright at home this time around because they'll be the more motivated team.

Belmont has played a brutal schedule this year, which is why it is only 7-6 and better than its record would indicate.  The Bruins' six losses have come against ASU (by 9), Evansville (by 5), BYU, Valpo (by 4), Middle Tennessee and Cleveland State (by 2).  All six of those losses came on the road.

The Bruins are 3-0 at home this season, outscoring teams by 15.7 points per game.  Valpo is 4-2 on the road with narrow wins over Rhode Island (by 3), Oregon State (by 6) and Indiana State (by 6).  It has also lost at Oregon and at Ball State in two of its other three road games, and its only road blowout came at Chicago State.

Plays on a home team (BELMONT) - off two or more consecutive upset losses as a road favorite, with four starters returning from last season are 35-10 (77.8%) ATS since 1997.  The Bruins will have their revenge tonight.  Roll with Belmont Monday.

15* NBA Monday Undervalued Underdog on New Orleans Pelicans +4.5

The New Orleans Pelicans have started to turn their season around now that they are finally healthy.  They have won three of their last four games overall with home wins over the Blazers (by 26) and Rockets, as well as a road win at Denver.

The only loss by the Pelicans during this 4-game stretch came at Miami by a final of 88-94 in overtime.  So, they have either won or forced overtime in each of their last four games.  I think we're getting some good value with them at +4.5 here against Eastern Conference foe, Orlando.

The Magic come into this game overvalued due to sinning five of their last seven games overall.  But their two losses came against the two best teams they played in Atlanta and Miami, both at home.  Their five wins came against the Nets, Hornets, Blazers, Knicks and Rockets.

Orlando is 9-20 ATS in home games off one or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons.  New Orleans is 34-17 ATS in its last 51 road games after a game where both teams scored 105 or more points.  The Pelicans are 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 trips to Orlando.  The underdog is 20-6-1 ATS in the last 27 meetings.  Take the Pelicans Monday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Indiana Pacers -2

The Atlanta Hawks come into this game way overvalued because they have gone 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  But those six wins came against the 76ers, Celtics, Magic, Blazers, Pistons and Knicks.  Now they take a step up in competition tonight.

At the same time, the Pacers come in undervalued due to going 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall.  They lost on the road to Memphis and San Antonio, while also falling at home to Sacramento by 2.  They bounced back with a 102-88 win at Minnesota on Saturday, though.

The Pacers are 10-4 at home this season.  They are outscoring teams by 6.6 points per game at home this year.  The Hawks are 8-6 on the road, but they're getting outscored by 0.7 points per game away from home.

Indiana is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games after having lost 3 of its last 4 games coming in.  The Pacers are 10-1 ATS against teams who average 48 or fewer rebounds per game over the last two seasons.  The Pacers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Indiana is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 vs. Eastern Conference foes.  Roll with the Pacers Monday.

15* CMU/Minnesota Quick Lane Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Central Michigan +6

The Central Michigan Chippewas will be happy to be bowling in their home start of Michigan.  They will have a nice home-field advantage here as they get to play this Quick Lane Bowl in Detroit inside of Ford Field, the home of the NFL's Lions.

Central Michigan was better than its 7-5 record would indicate.  Its five losses came to Oklahoma State (by 11), Syracuse (by 3), Michigan State (by 20), Western Michigan (by 2) and Toledo (by 5).  It actually went 4-1 ATS in those five games, which were against five of the best teams that it played.

The Chippewas actually outgained Michigan State by 16 yards despite losing by 20.  They also outgained Western Michigan by 5 yards and Syracuse by 194.  They were only outgained by 78 yards by Toledo and by 77 yards against Oklahoma State, so they really showed that they could play with all five of those teams.

Now the Chippewas are up against a 5-7 Minnesota team that doesn't even deserve to be playing in a bowl game.  But since it's a team from the Power 5, the Chippewas will certainly be up for this game.

"I think it's a big help from a confidence standpoint," first-year coach John Bonamego told the school's official website. "I think our guys feel like we can play with anybody and they've demonstrated that this year. This is another opportunity to go toe-to-toe with a Power 5 opponent and show that we belong in Division I."

Four of Minnesota's five wins this year came by single-digits, including three 3-point wins against Colorado State (23-20), Kent State (10-7) and Ohio (10-7).  If those three teams can play with the Golden Gophers, there's no question that the Chippewas can as well.

The Chippewas are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  Central Michigan is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 vs. a team with a losing record.  The Chippewas are 5-0 ATS in their last five non-conference games.  Central Michigan is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 vs. Big Ten foes.  The Golden Gophers are 1-4 ATS in their last five bowl games.  Minnesota is 0-7 in its last seven postseason games with its last win coming in 2004.  Take Central Michigan Monday.

15* NBA Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Knicks/Celtics UNDER 201.5

The books have set the bar too high in this contest between the New York Knicks and Boston Celtics.  I look for a defensive battle between these two teams as neither gets to 100 points in this one, paving the way for an easy UNDER winner.

The biggest reason for the Celtics' turnaround this season has been defense.  They rank 3rd in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up just 97.6 points per 100 possessions.  The Knicks are improved in this area as well as they rank 16th in defensive efficiency.

The Knicks are improved on offense this season, but only marginally as they still rank a woeful 22nd in offensive efficiency at 100.6 points per 100 possessions.  The Celtics have only been slightly better, ranking 21st at 101.0 points per 100 possessions.  The Knicks rank 23rd in pace at 96.7 possessions per game, so this one should be played at a slow pace.

I also think that it will be played at a slow pace for the simple fact that both teams played on Saturday, so they are both going to be tired playing this second of a back-to-back.  I think that hurts the offense more than the defense, which has proven to be the case over time.  Neither team is going to be looking to fast break with regularity.

New York is 30-15 UNDER versus teams who score 103 or more points per game over the last three seasons.  Boston is 21-9 UNDER after covering three of its last four games against the spread over the last two seasons.  The UNDER is 11-4 in Knicks last 15 games following a straight up loss.  The UNDER is 7-3 in Knicks last 10 Sunday games.  The UNDER is 4-1 in Celtics last five Sunday games.  The UNDER is 12-5 in the last 17 meetings, including 9-4 in the last 13 meetings in Boston.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* Packers/Cardinals NFC Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Green Bay +4.5

There are a couple different ways you can look at this one. People who like the Cardinals will say that the Packers aren’t going to show up. It is true that the Packers can lose this game and still win the NFC North with a win at home against the Minnesota Vikings next week. But I believe that is not what the Packers are really thinking heading into this one. They could also clinch the division with a win this week and a Minnesota loss to to the Giants.

I think the Packers actually believe they still have a shot at a first-round bye, which is certainly the case. They would need to win their final two games of the season, while also having the Cardinals lose their final two games. And it’s really not a long shot at all considering the Cardinals play the Seahawks at home next week. That’s a Seattle team that is still fighting to make the playoffs and one that won’t just let the Cardinals win next week considering they are bitter rivals. So, it’s realistic to think that the Packers will finish 2-0, while the Cardinals will go 0-2.

The Cardinals are certainly overvalued right now due to their 8-game winning streak. I do believe that this has been the best team in the NFC up to this point, but I also realize that they are laying too many points here and that there is value with the Packers at +4.5, who I consider the second-best team in the NFC. The Cardinals are also dealing with some injuries right now as Carson Palmer has an injured finger on his throwing hand, and star safety Tyrann Mathieu is out for the season after suffering a knee injury last week.

Aaron Rodgers is going to have a much easier day against a Cardinals secondary that doesn’t include Mathieu, who leads the team in pass break-ups and had five interceptions this year. The Cardinals could also be without fellow safety Rashad Johnson, who is battling an ankle injury and missed last game.  They clearly aren't the best team in the NFC this week with the injuries they are dealing with.

Rodgers and the offense are hitting their stride right now. They have put up an average of 28.3 points per game in their last three games. Mike McCarthy just took over play-calling duties two weeks ago, and the Packers responded with 435 total yards against a good Cowboys defense. They scored 30 last week against the Raiders and left a lot of points on the field as Mason Crosby kicked three short field goals of 21, 24 and 33 yards. I love that McCarthy is calling plays again because he and Rodgers have had great chemistry together in their history.

But the defense has been the biggest reason for the Packers' success here of late.  They have given up 23 or fewer points in six straight games coming in.  They are allowing just 16.3 points per game in their last six.  I look for this defense to continue to play well against the Cardinals this week, and to keep them in this game for four quarters.  Keep in mind that at +4.5, we are getting two key numbers in 3 and 4, so if this goes down to the wire like I think it will, then were are in great shape.

The Packers have won seven of their last nine meetings with the Cardinals. Arizona is 0-6 ATS against teams who commit one or fewer turnovers per game on the season over the last two seasons. It is losing to these teams by an average of 11.5 points per game. The Packers have only committed 11 turnovers in 14 games, which is mighty impressive. You know that Rodgers is going to take care of the football and give his team a chance to win. The Packers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games. The Cardinals are 0-4 ATS in their last four games vs. teams with winning records.  Take the Packers Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH on Atlanta Falcons +7.5

The Carolina Panthers could not be more overvalued than they are right now. They are 14-0 on the season and now find themselves in the role of being huge road favorites over a division rival. That’s because the oddsmakers know that the betting public is going to keep pounding the unbeaten Panthers, so they are forced to set the line higher than it should be to try and get even action on both sides.

It’s really the perfect storm here because the betting public wants nothing to do with the Falcons. They have lost six of their last seven games overall while also going a pitiful 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games overall. The betting public has been killed backing this team, and those who have gone against them have made a fortune. They are going to look to keep fading the Falcons this week.

One obvious indication that this line is inflated is comparing it to the line of the first game these teams played. The Panthers were 8.5-point home favorites over the Falcons two weeks ago. Adjusting for home-field advantage, they should only be about 2.5-point road favorites in the rematch. Instead, this line has been set at 7.5, so the clear value is with the Falcons here.

The Panthers pretty much have home-field advantage already locked up in the NFC. They can afford to lose this game and win next week to secure the No. 1 seed. They have already been careful in resting players with nagging injuries in recent weeks, so don’t be surprised to see that continue.  Jonathan Stewart sat out last week and is expected to sit again here.

Carolina has also been overvalued in each of its last two road games. It needed a last-minute touchdown to beat the Saints 41-38 as 5.5-point favorites, failing to cover that spread three weeks ago. Then last week the Panthers needed a last-second field goal to beat the Giants 38-35 on the road as 4.5-point favorites, also failing to cover that spread. Now they’re being asked to lay 7.5 points against a Falcons team that I believe to be better than both the Saints and Giants.

Statistically and record-wise, the Falcons are better than both the Saints and Giants. They rank 11th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by an average of 21.9 yards per game. Of the top 10 teams in yardage differential, only the Bucs are not going to make the playoffs. The other nine teams would all be in the playoffs if the season ended today, so the Falcons are in some elite company here with this yardage differential stat, which I find to be very important.

The Falcons are still alive for the playoffs. Yes, they would need a lot of help, but the fact of the matter is that they are still alive. I like the fight I saw from them last week in their win over the Jaguars. They are going to treat this game against the Panthers as their Super Bowl. Beating a division rival who is 14-0 and ending their perfect season is plenty of motivation to show up at home Sunday. I also like the fact that nine of the Falcons’ 14 games this season have been decided by 6 points or less. They have only lost by more than 4 points three times all season.

Atlanta is 12-1 ATS after allowing 6 or more yards per play in two consecutive games over the last three seasons. It is coming back to win this this spot by an average of 7.2 points per game. Plays on any team (ATLANTA) – after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last seven games against opponent after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games are 26-3 (89.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Bet the Falcons Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Tampa Bay Bucs -3

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are one of the best-kept secrets in the NFL this season.  When you look at the numbers this team is putting up, it's clear to me that they are much better than their 6-8 record would indicate.  Look for them to show it this week at home against a Chicago Bears team that appears to have quit.

The Buccaneers rank 7th in the NFL in yardage differential, outgaining teams by 34.7 yards per game.  Of the top nine teams in the yardage differential category, they are the only one that wouldn't be in the playoffs if the season ended today.  They are in some elite company with the Cardinals, Seahawks, Patriots, Broncos, Panthers, Jets, Steelers and Bengals as the top nine teams in this all-important yardage differential stat.

The Bucs average 6.0 yards per play on offense and give up 5.4 yards per play on defense, outgaining teams by 0.6 yards per play.  The Bears average 5.5 yards per play on offense and give up 5.8 per play on defense, getting outgained by 0.3 yards per play.  As long as the Bucs take care of the football, they should have no problem making easy work of the Bears.

After all, the Bears have lost three straight coming into this one to be eliminated from the playoffs.  They lost a pair of heartbreakers at home to the 49ers (in OT) and the Redskins (by 3) before going on the road and getting demolished by the Vikings (by 21) last week.  I don't believe they will pick themselves back up off the mat in time to face the Bucs this week.

I also like this spot for the Bucs.  They fought hard to nearly erase a 28-6 deficit to the Rams last Thursday.  They got back to within 23-31 before missing an onside kick that would have given them the ball with a chance to tie.  They outgianed the Rams by 190 yards in that game.  That showed the character of this team.  Now, the Bucs have three extra days to rest and get ready for the Bears after playing last Thursday.  Look for Jameis Winston and company to put forth one of their best efforts of the season this week.

Doug Martin is second in the NFL in rushing with 1,305 yards this season.  That number would be bigger if the Bucs weren't playing from behind the majority of the time.  Look for them to ride him early and to play from ahead the whole way in this game.  The Bears are awful against the run as they give up 126 rushing yards per game and 4.6 per carry against teams that only average 112 yards per game and 4.2 per carry.

Chicago is 14-31 ATS in its last 45 road games over the final four weeks of the regular season.  Chicago is 10-24 ATS in its last 34 road games with a total set of 45.5 or higher.  The Bears are 15-39 ATS in their last 54 games vs. excellent offensive teams that average 6.0 or more yards per play.  The Buccaneers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS loss.  Tampa Bay is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after allowing 30 or more points in its previous game.  Roll with the Bucs Sunday.

15* Redskins/Eagles NFC East No-Brainer on Washington +3

The Washington Redskins are the most complete team in the NFC East this season and deserving of winning it. That’s especially the case with the way they have played here down the stretch. They have won three of their last four games overall with their only loss coming at home to the Dallas Cowboys by a field goal.

Their offense has scored a combined 29.5 points per game in back-to-back wins over Chicago and Buffalo. That’s mighty impressive against those two defenses. Their defense has been playing its best football of the season, too. The Redskins are only giving up 19.8 points per game over their last four.  I just trust this team with the way they are playing right now a lot more than the Eagles, and getting the 3 points is an added bonus.

The Eagles have been thoroughly outplayed each of the last five weeks. They have managed to go 2-3 despite it, but they had two fluke wins. They beat the Patriots 35-28 despite getting outgained by 179 yards.  They only won that game due to three non-offensive touchdowns. They also beat the Bills 23-20 despite getting outgained by 64 yards.

Philadelphia has been outgained in five straight games by an average of 130.6 yards per game. Its defense has been shredded for an average of 35.6 points and 456.6 yards per game in its last five. There’s no way you can trust this team with the way its defense is playing. Kirk Cousins is coming off a 22 of 28, 319-yard, 4-touchdown performance against a good Bills defense last week, and I trust him to have another big game here against the Eagles.

Each of the last six meetings in this series have been decided by eight points or less. In fact, each of the last three meetings have been decided by exactly a field goal. I’d certainly rather have the team catching a field goal in this series because of the close nature of it as well. The Redskins are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings in Philadelphia.

The Eagles are still getting too much respect here even after how poorly they’ve been playing, and with their 23-point loss to the Cardinals last week. They haven’t responded well in this situation, either. The Eagles are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games following a double-digit loss at home. The Eagles are 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.  Bet the Redskins Saturday.

15* NBA Saturday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -1

Both the Rockets and Pelicans played on Christmas Day.  The difference is that the Pelicans have had more time to recover since they played the 12:00 EST game, while the Rockets played the second-to-last game last night.  The Pelicans will be the more rested team as a result.

I also believe the Pelicans will be the more motivated team.  They let one get away from them yesterday, losing in overtime to the Heat.  The Rockets are in a massive letdown spot here after beating the Spurs at home.  The Pelicans will want this one more because they are the ones coming off a loss.

The Pelicans haave played the Rockets tough in recent meetings in winning three of the last six.  All three of their losses came by 7 points or less with two of them coming on the road.  The Pelicans lost 101-108 at Houston in their first meeting this season in early December, so they'll be out for revenge as well.

The Pelicans are 6-6 at home this year while the Rockets are just 6-8 on the road.  Houston is 4-12 ATS off a home game this season.  New Orleans is 25-14 ATS off a road loss over the last two seasons.  The Rockets are 7-15-1 ATS in the last 23 meetings, including 2-6 ATS in their last eight trips to New Orleans.  Take the Pelicans Saturday.

15* CFB Bowl Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Tulsa +14

The fact that this is Frank Beamer's last game as head coach at Virginia Tech has the Hokies way overvalued against Tulsa in the Independence Bowl.  While the Hokies will likely give Beamer a win in his final game, they have no business being two-touchdown favorites with the way that they have played this year.

The Hokies needed a 23-20 win at Virginia just to get bowl eligible in their season finale.  They were thoroughly outplayed by the Cavaliers in that game, but found a way to win.  They were outgained 304-433 by the Cavaliers, or by 129 total yards.

There's no question that Tulsa's defense isn't very good.  They give up 38.6 points per game, but that has come against teams that average 30.3 points per game, so they've played some very good offenses this year.  Fortunately for them, the Hokies won't be one of them.

Virginia Tech only averages 367 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play against teams that give up 374 yards per game and 5.4 yards per play.  It is 114th in the country in yards per carry (3.6).  The Hokies play a conservative brand of football on offense, which makes it tough for them to blow teams out.  That's going to make it very difficult for them to cover this 14-point spread.

VA Tech does have a good defense, but it hasn't been as good as in year's past.  The Hokies give up 24.2 points, 354 yards per game and 5.4 per play against teams that average 37.6 points, 385 yards per game and 5.6 per play.  So, this is just a slightly above-average defense, not one that is among the best in the country.

The Hokies will have their hands full against a Toledo offense that has thrived under first-year head coach Philip Montgomery, the former Baylor offensive coordinator.  The Golden Hurricane are putting up 35.9 points, 503 yards per game and 6.0 per play against teams that give up 29.9 points, 414 yards per game and 5.7 per play.

This is an offense that put up some solid numbers against bowl teams this year.  Tulsa put up 40 points and 600 total yards against New Mexico, 38 points and 603 yards against Oklahoma, 24 points and 456 yards against Houston, 42 points and 534 yards against Memphis, and 38 points and 588 yards against Cincinnati.

Quarterback Dane Evans has thrived in Montgomery's system, completing 63 percent of his passes for 3,958 yards with 22 touchdowns and eight interceptions while averaging a whopping 9.0 yards per attempt.  The Golden Hurricane have two 700-plus yard rushers in Zack Langer and D'Angelo Brewers, who have combined for 21 touchdowns, so they aren't one-dimensional at all.

The Golden Hurricane have only been beaten by more than 14 points twice all season, which came against Memphis (by 24) and Navy (by 23).  They even stayed within 14 of Oklahoma on the road, so they clearly have proven they can play with anyone.

The Golden Hurricane are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.  Tulsa is 4-1 ATS in its last five bowl games.  Virginia Tech is 7-15-2 ATS in its last 24 non-conference games.  The Hokies are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight neutral site games.  Roll with Tulsa in the Independence Bowl Saturday.

20* CFB Bowl Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Washington -8.5

Look out for the Washington Huskies to win the Pac-12 next year.  But first, they have some unfinished business after losing to Oklahoma State in their bowl game last year.  They want to finish their season the right way this time.  That shouldn't be a problem against an overmatched Southern Miss team in the Heart of Dallas Bowl.

Washington certainly earned its way into this bowl game by needing wins in its final two games to get here.  And boy did it deliver.  The Huskies beat Oregon State 52-7 on the road before topping Washington State 45-10 at home.  It's safe to say they are playing their best football of the season coming in.

Indeed, they have outgained five straight opponents.  They did lose to Arizona State by 10 and Utah by 11, but they outgained ASU by 150 yards and Utah by 35 yards and arguably should have won both games.  Their three wins have all been via blowout as they've beaten Arizona by 46, Oregon State by 45 and Washington State by 35 over their last five games.

Jake Browning is going to be a great quarterback for this program for years.  The freshman is completing 63% of his passes this season while averaging 8.0 yards per attempt.  He leads a Washington offense that is putting up 37 points per game and 464 total yards per game over its last five contests.

Browning should have his way with a Southern Miss defense that allowed 45 points and 522 total yards to Western Kentucky in the Conference USA Championship.  This Southern Miss defense also has a ton of injury concerns right now after several starters left the WKU game with various injuries.

On the other side of the ball, the Huskies have the best defense in the Pac-12.  They are giving up 17.7 points and 350 yards per game against teams that average 31 points and 431 yards per game.  So, they are holding their opponents to 13.3 points per game less than their season averages.

This is a massive strength of schedule mismatch.  Washington played the 21st-toughest schedule in the country, while Southern Miss played the 135th-toughest.  The Golden Eagles lost to the four best teams they played in Mississippi State (by 18), Nebraska (by 8), Marshall (by 21) and Western Kentucky (by 17).  I believe Washington is better than all four of those teams, and I fully expect the Huskies to roll by double-digits Saturday.

Washington is 8-1 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points over the last three seasons.  It is winning by an average of 22.6 points per game in this spot.  Plays against any team (SOUTHERN MISS) - after allowing 37 points or more last game against opponent after two straight wins by 28 or more points are 60-23 (72.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet Washington in the Heart of Dallas Bowl Saturday.

15* UConn/Marshall Early ANNIHILATOR on Connecticut +5

The Huskies were one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  They went just 2-10 in Bob Diaco's first season last year, but they managed to go 6-6 this season to get bowl eligible.  Diaco certainly has this team on the rise, and they'll be hungry to be playing in their first bowl game since 2010.

Marshall went 9-3 this year, but I wasn't impressed with this team.  The Thundering Herd play in a weak conference in Conference USA.  Their only win against a conference opponent that finished with a winning record was Southern Miss.  But they were fortunate to win that game.  They were outgained by 162 yards, had 14 first downs and 277 yards of total offense.  Southern Miss turned the ball over five times to give the game away.

When you look at what Marshall did out of conference, it was even less impressive.  The Thundering Herd lost by double-digits to a poor Ohio team.  They also needed overtime to beat Kent State, a team that went 3-9.  They were fortunate to beat Purdue at home as the Boilermakers led that game most of the way.  That's a Purdue team that went 2-10.

I think the betting public is a little stuck on this Marshall team because it went 13-1 last year.  But this isn't the same Marshall team as last year.  This is a Marshall offense that is terrible, and one that averages just 5.4 yards per play against teams that give up 5.7 yards per play, so this is a well-below average offense.

UConn boasts an elite defense that is giving up just 19.7 points per game, holding opponents to 7.1 points per game below their season averages.  They only give up 352 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play on the season.  This is expected to be a low-scoring game with both teams featuring decent defenses, so I like getting the +5 points here.

UConn also has a stud running back in Arkeel Newsome, who comes in ranked 18th in the country in all-purpose yards this year.  The Huskies are 5-1 when they rush for at least rush for at least 145 yards this season.  They should have a great chance to do just that against a Marshall defense that gives up 172 rushing yards per game against teams that only average 147 yards per game on the ground.

This is a big strength of schedule mismatch in favor of the Huskies as well.  UConn played the 69th-toughest schedule this season, while Marshall played the 138th-toughest.  As you can see, Marshall's schedule this year could not have been any easier.  The Thundering Herd lost to the best team they played in Western Kentucky by 21 points.

UConn actually beat the 14th-ranked Houston Cougars 20-17 to become bowl eligible on November 21.  That was the only loss the Cougars suffered all season.  That was the second-to-last game for the Huskies, who went on to have a letdown in their season finale at Temple, a team that needed that win to get into the AAC Championship and wanted it more.  The Huskies are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five vs. C-USA opponents.  Take UConn in the St. Petersburg Bowl.

25* NBA Pre-New Year's GAME OF THE YEAR on Cleveland Cavaliers +7

The Cleveland Cavaliers want serious revenge on the Golden State Warriors.  They led the NBA Finals 2-1 last year, only to lose three straight and to fall short of a championship.  The only difference this time around is that the Cavaliers are healthy, which is a huge difference.

Back in 2011, Lebron James and the Miami Heat played the Dallas Mavericks on Christmas.  Coming off a Finals loss to Dirk Nowitzki & Co. Miami routed Dallas, leading by 32 points after three quarters.  I fully expect the Cavaliers to want this game more and to likely come away with an outright victory.

The Cavs come in playing their best basketball of the season.  They have won six straight games with three coming by double-digits, including both of their road wins over Boston (89-77) and Orlando (111-76) during this stretch.  Kyrie Irving returned to the lineup two games ago and should be up to game speed now in time for face the Warriors.

Remember, the Cavs didn't have Irving or Kevin Love against the Warriors in the NBA Finals, which are two of their three best players.  While James and company are downplaying the significance of this game to the media coming in, there's no question that deep down inside they want to kill the Warriors.  That will show on the court Friday.  Bet the Cavaliers Friday.

20* Bulls/Thunder Christmas Day No-Brainer on UNDER 205.5

This Christmas Day matchup between the Chicago Bulls and Oklahoma City Thunder features two of the best defensive teams in the NBA.  The Bulls rank 3rd in defensive efficiency, giving up 97.8 points per 100 possessions.  The Thunder rank 6th, giving up 98.8 points per 100 possessions.

The Bulls will be playing with extra determination in this game because they are coming off three straight losses and really need a win.  The last time they lost three straight this season, they came back with an 83-80 home win over the Clippers in a low-scoring, defensive battle that saw 163 combined points.

The Bulls have struggled to find easy baskets this season under Fred Hoiberg as they rank just 27th in offensive efficiency at 98.4 points per 100 possessions.  Things won't get any easier for them on that end against a Thunder team that has allowed 99 or fewer points in 10 of their last 11 games overall.  Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook get all the hype, but it's OKC's effort on the defensive end that makes them so good.

The UNDER in Christmas Day games is 27-13-1 (67.5%) since 2005.  While I do like some other UNDERS, this is my favorite of the bunch.  The UNDER is 15-4-2 in Bulls last 21 games when playing on 3 or more days' rest.   The UNDER is 10-1 in Bulls last 11 vs. Western Conference opponents.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Thunder's last seven home games.  The UNDER is 9-0 in OKC's last nine when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 8-1 in OKC's last nine vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  These last four trends combine for a 34-2 system backing the UNDER.  Take the UNDER in this game Friday.

15* Pelicans/Heat XMas Day Early ANNIHILATOR on New Orleans +6

I've backed the Pelicans with success in each of their last two games and I'll continue riding them on Christmas Day as 6-point underdogs to the Miami Heat.  Head coach Alvin Gentry called out his players for their lack of effort three games ago in a loss to the Suns, and they've responded very well.

Indeed, the Pelicans went on the road in their first game after the loss to the Suns and beat the Nuggets 130-125 as 1-point underdogs.  In their second game since Gentry called out his players, the Pelicans rolled to a 115-89 home win over the Blazers as 7.5-point favorites.  Now I fully expect them to win this game outright against the Heat.

The Pelicans have had the Heat's number in recent meetings.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with home wins by 10 and 2 points, and a blowout 14-point road win.  I believe Anthony Davis' domination of Hassan Whiteside inside will be the difference in this game.  Davis is a tough matchup for Whiteside because he can hit 3-pointers, so Whiteside is forced away from the rim, making it much easier for other players to get uncontested layups.

The Pelicans are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  New Orleans is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games vs. teams with winning records.  The Heat are 5-17-1 ATS in their last 23 vs. NBA Southwest Division opponents.  The Pelicans are 13-5-1 ATS in the last 19 meetings overall.  Roll with the Pelicans Friday.

20* Chargers/Raiders NFL Thursday No-Brainer on San Diego +6

The Oakland Raiders were just officially eliminated from the playoffs with their 20-30 home loss to the Green Bay Packers last week.  With that realization comes a disappointment that is tough for players to get over.  And they don't have much time to get over it because they have to play just four days later this week against the San Diego Chargers.  I look for the Raiders to come out flat in this one, and for them to likely lose this game outright.

Given the situation, the Raiders should not be this heavily favored over the Chargers.  I think the biggest reason they are is because they already beat San Diego 37-29 on the road in the first meeting.  But that was an awful spot for San Diego, and a great one for Oakland.

The Chargers were coming of a deflating last-second loss at Green Bay the previous week, and they promptly suffered a hangover from it.  They fell behind 37-6 to the Raiders before finally get their wits about them and making it interesting late.  Meanwhile, the Raiders were coming off their bye week, so they had a two full weeks to prepare for the Chargers.  It's no surprise that they came out guns-a-blazing and played one of their best games of the season off their bye.

What I like about San Diego is that it clearly has not packed it in.  The Chargers have gone 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall while being underdogs in three of the four, and a pick 'em in another.  They beat the Jags 31-25 on the road as 5-point dogs, lost to the Broncos 3-17 at home as 6-point dogs in a game that was closer than the final score, had a chance to tie the game against Kansas City in the closing seconds in a 3-10 loss as 13-point road dogs, and crushed Miami 30-14 at home last week.

The Chargers have one of the best offenses in the NFL.  They rank 6th in the NFL in total offense at 377.8 yards per game, including 4th in passing offense at 293.8 yards per game.  That makes this an excellent matchup for the Chargers.  The Raiders rank 23rd in the NFL in total defense, including 28th against the pass.  The Chargers just put up 30 points, 442 total yards and 302 passing yards on the Dolphins last week and should continue to roll.

The Raiders aren't that good offensively contrary to popular belief.  They have been held to 24 or fewer points in six straight games, including 20 or fewer in five of the six.  They are averaging just 17.7 points per game during this stretch.  They are 2-5 in their last seven games overall and easily could be 0-7.  They beat Tennessee by 3 only after needing a last-minute touchdown.  Their 15-12 win over Denver was a complete fluke considering they were held to just 126 yards of total offense and were outgained by 184 yards.

It won't be any easier for the Oakland offense this week against a San Diego defense that is hitting its stride here down the stretch.  The Chargers are only giving up 13.7 points per game and 284.3 yards per game over their last three contests.  What you also have to love about the Chargers getting 6 points is that they are better than their 4-10 record as they have lost a lot of close games this year.  Indeed, seven of their 10 losses have come by a touchdown or less.

The Raiders' win over the Chargers in their first meeting this season was an aberration.  The Chargers have won six of the last eight meetings.  They've outgained the Raiders in five straight meetings.  Plus, it hasn't been good to be the favorite in this series.  In fact, the underdog is 12-1 (92%) ATS in the last 13 meetings.

The Chargers are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.  The Raiders are 16-36-1 ATS in their last 53 games in December.  The Raiders are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  Plays on road underdogs or pick (SAN DIEGO) - after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.

15* Cincinnati/SDSU Hawaii Bowl BAILOUT on San Diego State -3

The San Diego State Aztecs went 10-3 this season and will be going for their first 10-game winning streak in 39 yards.  I look for them to continue their roll and to cap off a fine season with a win and cover against the inconsistent Cincinnati Bearcats in the Hawaii Bowl.

San Diego State's defense has been simply dominant this season.  It ranks first or second in the MWC in 13 different categories.  It ranks 5th nationally in total defense (287.9 yards/game), 6th in rushing D (111.2 yards/game) and 10th in scoring D (17.2 PPG).  The Aztecs held eight straight opponents to 17 points or fewer before beating Air Force in the league title game.

The Aztecs lead the nation in turnover margin (+1.46) and their 31 takeaways are the third-most in the country.  Now they'll be up against a Cincinnati team that is prone to turnovers.  The Bearcats have committed 30 turnovers this season and are -16 in turnover differential.  There's a great chance that turnovers decide this game.

Cincinnati had a late scratch at the quarterback position.  Gunner Kiel has missed the trip for undisclosed personal reasons.  That leaves freshman Hayden Moore to start.  He played well in limited action this year for a freshman with 58.5 percent completions and 1,683 yards, but he threw just nine touchdowns against eight interceptions.  This freshman will be under duress all game against SDSU's fierce pass rush, and I expect him to make plenty of mistakes with the football.

The Aztecs boast a rushing attack that averages 235 yards per game and 4.9 per carry.  Donnel Pumphrey is a game-changer.  He was the league's Offensive Player of the Year.  Pumphrey's 1,554 yards are good for 10th nationally.  He has 19 total touchdowns and 27 receptions to boot.

Pumphrey is in line for a big day against Cincinnati's horrid rush defense.  The Bearcats give up 191 rushing yards per game and 5.0 per carry against teams that only average 151 yards per game and 4.0 per carry.  They gave up 215 to Temple, 220 to Miami Ohio, 212 to UCF, 266 to Houston, 213 to Tulsa and 361 to South Florida.

Cincinnati is 0-8 ATS in non-conference road games over the last three seasons.  It is losing by an average of 13.1 points per game in this spot.  SDSU is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 road games versus good offensive teams that score 34 or more points per game.  The Aztecs are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  The Bearcats are 2-6 ATS in their last eight bowl games.  Take San Diego State in the Hawaii Bowl Thursday.

5* Oklahoma/Hawaii ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on Oklahoma -6.5

This is a very generous price to get one of the best teams in the country tonight in the Oklahoma Sooners.  This team legitimately has a chance to win the Big 12 this season with four returning starters from last year.  Lon Kruger is on record as saying this is the hardest-working team he's ever coached.

The Sooners haven't disappointed in the early going.  They're off to a 9-0 start while winning their last eight games by an average of 26.1 points, including a 78-55 victory over then-No. 9 Villanova in Hawaii on December 7.  The Sooners opened their second trip to Honolulu with Tuesday's easy 88-60 victory over Washington State in the first round of the eight-team tournament.

That blowout victory allowed the Sooners to rest their starters down the stretch, so they'll be fresh tonight.  Buddy Hield had two straight 30-point performances before scoring an efficient 25 points in just 26 minutes yesterday.  They played the early game in Honolulu last night, while Hawaii played the late game that didn't tip until 12 AM EST.  Now the Rainbow Warriors will have to get ready for a 9 PM EST tip tonight.

Oklahoma is scoring 87.8 points against teams that give up 72.7, and it is giving up 63.9 points against teams that average 75.1.  That is roughly a plus-26 mark based off what its opponents average.  Hawaii puts up 80.2 points against teams that allow 75.9, and it allows 67.4 against teams that average 72.8.  That's a plus-10 mark for the Warriors.

That means Oklahoma should be favored by 16 points on a neutral court over Hawaii, and roughly 12 points in a true road game.  But the Sooners have played a lot tougher schedule, so their plus-26 mark is much more impressive than Hawaii's plus-10 mark.  This line should be in the 12-to-15-point range instead of 7.5.

The Sooners are 6-1 ATS in their last seven non-conference games.  The Warriors are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  The Warriors are getting too much respect for their win over Northern Iowa last night.  That was a UNI team that wasn't used to playing that late at night, and also one that was in a huge letdown spot off its win over Iowa State just three days earlier.  Take Oklahoma Wednesday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference Total ANNIHILATOR on Pistons/Hawks UNDER 202.5

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this contest between the Atlanta Hawks and Detroit Pistons.  I look for a low-scoring battle with neither team topping 100 points in this one folks.

These two teams both prefer to play at slower paces.  The Pistons rank 21st in pace while the Hawks rank 15th.  Both teams are above-average defensively as the Pistons rank 11th in defensive efficiency, while the Hawks check in at 13th.  The Pistons are only 24th in offensive efficiency this season.
 
Detroit shot 15-of-29 from 3-point range last night at Miami, yet it still only won 93-92 for 185 combined points.  It has not played well offensively in second of back-to-back road games.  The Pistons are averaging 88.0 points on 39.9 percent shooting in losing all three of their second half of back-to-backs played on the road.

You also have to like the UNDER in this game based off the recent history in this series.  Five of the last six meetings between the Pistons and Hawks have seen 200 or fewer combined points.  They're averaging 194.8 combined points in their last six meetings, which is roughly eight points less than this 202.5-point total.

Atlanta is 16-4 UNDER in home games versus good rebounding teams who outrebound opponents by 3-plus boards per game over the last three seasons.  Detroit is 16-3 UNDER in road games after playing two consecutive games as an underdog over the last two years.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Atlanta.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* NBA Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -8

I was on the New Orleans Pelicans in their last game, a 130-125 win at Denver as 1-point underdogs.  I stated that head coach Alvin Gentry had called out his players for their lack of effort following a loss to the Suns, and that they'd come back with a great effort against the Nuggets.

That proved to be the case as Anthony Davis led the way with 27 points, including 19 in the first quarter, despite playing through an illness that required four IV treatments prior to the game.  It was a gutsy performance from him, and I believe the Pelicans will rally around him now and come back with another great effort against the Blazers tonight.

Portland has lost its first four games on this 5-game road trip.  It is getting outscored by 10.0 points per game while giving up 107.5 points on 49.8 percent shooting defensively.  Now the Blazers are expected to be without their two best players in Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum.  They stand no chance of keeping this game close considering that duo is responsible for 42.6 percent of Portland's scoring this season.

The Pelicans want revenge from two losses at Portland already this season, including a 101-105 loss on December 14 just nine days ago.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team has won five of the last six meetings, and 12 of the last 14 meetings overall.

Portland is 1-10 ATS off three consecutive non-conference games over the last two seasons.  The Blazers are 11-25 ATS off a road loss over the last two years.  The Pelicans are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.  Roll with the Pelicans Wednesday.

15* Knicks/Cavs NBA Wednesday No-Brainer on UNDER 197

The books have set the bar too high tonight in this game between the New York Knicks and Cleveland Cavaliers.  I look for a low-scoring affair whether or not Carmelo Anthony plays for the Knicks.  He is currently questionable with an ankle injury.

The Knicks rank just 21st in offensive efficiency this season.  Things won't get any easier against a Cleveland team that ranks 6th in defensive efficiency.  The Knicks are solid in this category as well as they are 16th in defensive efficiency.

One thing is almost certain, and that is the fact that this game is going to be played at a snail's pace.  The Cavs rank 28th in the league in pace at 95.6 possessions per game, while the Knicks are 23rd at 96.9 possessions per game.  A snail's pace has indeed been the trend when these teams have gotten together recently.

In fact, the UNDER is 5-0 in the last five meetings with combined scores of 174, 182, 184, 177 and 185 points.  That's an average of 180.4 combined points per game, which is roughly 17 points less than tonight's posted total of 197.

The UNDER is 10-3 in Knicks last 13 games following a straight up loss.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Cavs last seven vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The UNDER is 20-8 in Cavs last 28 vs. NBA Atlantic Division foes.  Take the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

15* Boise State/NIU Poinsettia Bowl Total DOMINATOR on OVER 56

I expect a shootout in the Poinsettia Bowl between the Boise State Broncos and Northern Illinois Huskies this afternoon. For starters, the weather is going to be perfect for this bowl game at Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego, which will help aid the offensive fireworks.

This Boise State offense will do the heavy lifting in doing its part to get the OVER.  After all, the Broncos are putting up 37.7 points and 488.6 yards per game on the season.  Brett Rypien is completing 62.5 percent of his passes for 2,973 yards and 17 touchdowns.  Jeremy McNichols has rushed for 1,244 yards and 18 scores.

The Huskies have been solid offensively this season, averaging 33.0 points per game.  That's very impressive when you consider they've played musical chairs at the quarterback position.  Drew Hare got hurt, Ryan Graham got hurt, and Tommy Fiedler was forced into action in the final two games of the season.  The offense did not go well under Fiedler.

But the good news is that Graham is returning at quarterback fro the bowl game as he's fully recovered from his leg injury.  And Graham didn't miss a beat in replacing Hare.  He actually averaged 8.1 yards per attempt compared to the 7.6 from Hare and the 5.9 from Fiedler.  Graham also produced 153 rushing yards in his limited action.

Neither of these defenses are playing very well coming into the bowl game.  The Huskies have allowed an average of 26.3 points and 463.7 yards per game in their last three contests.  The Broncos have been even worse, giving up 30.3 points and 498.0 yards per game in their last three.

Boise State is 6-0 OVER as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points over the last two seasons.  The Broncos are 6-0 OVER in road games off one or more consecutive overs over the last three seasons.  Boise State is 10-2 OVER when the total is between 49.5 and 56 points over the last two years.  The OVER is 13-3 in Broncos last 16 vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

15* Kansas/SDSU Late-Night BAILOUT on Kansas -6.5

Northing is certainly except death, taxes and Kansas winning the Big 12.  The Jayhawks are once again the best team in arguably the best conference in the country.  This team is a little different in that it finally has some experience with four returning starters from last year.  The Jayhawks are on a mission to finish the deal this year.

They are off to a 9-1 start with their only loss coming to top-ranked Michigan State by a final of 73-79 on a neutral court.  They led that game the whole way, too, but allowed the Spartans to come back.  They rest of their games haven't even been close as all nine of their wins have come by 6 points or more.   They are outscoring teams by 23.7 points per game on the season.

The Jayhawks score 89.8 points against teams that allow 73.1, and they allow 66.1 against teams that score 73.4.  That's roughly a plus-24 mark based off of what their opponents average.  San Diego State is scoring 65.7 points per game against teams that allow 69.3, and allowing 59.3 against teams that score 70.2.  That's a plus-7 mark.  Kansas has played a tougher schedule, so it should be at least a 17-point favorite against SDSU on a neutral court.  Factor in the home floor for the Aztecs, and the Jayhawks should be a 13 to 14-point favorite here.

There are several performances by the Aztecs this year that lead me to believe that they can't hang with the Jayhawks.  They lost at home to Arkansas-Little Rock (by 6) as 16.5-point favorites and at home to Grand Canyon (by 7).  There wasn't even a line on that Grand Canyon game as they were expected to blow them out.  They also lost to West Virginia (by 22) on a neutral court.  This is a team that has already lost five games and isn't as good as in year's past under head coach Steve Fisher.

Two seasons ago, SDSU pulled one of the biggest upsets of the season with a 61-57 win at Kansas as 10.5-point underdogs.  This veteran Jayhawks team that returned four starters this year remembers that loss, and it will certainly want to exact some revenge this year.
 
San Diego is 0-12 ATS when playing only its 2nd game in 8 days over the last two seasons.  For whatever reason, Fisher hasn't been able to get his team to respond very well with good rest coming into games.  Take Kansas Tuesday.

20* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Grizzlies/76ers UNDER 195

I look for an ugly, low-scoring defensive battle between the Memphis Grizzlies and Philadelphia 76ers tonight.  These are two of the worst offensive teams in the NBA, and that will be on full display tonight.

The 76ers rank 30th in offensive efficiency, while the Grizzlies are 26th.  Not only are they both inefficient, but this game is sure to be played at a pretty slow pace as well.  The Grizzlies rank 24th in the NBA in pace at 96.6 possessions per game.

The 76ers try to play faster, but they aren't equipped to do it, which is why they are so inefficient.  The 76ers have scored 97 or fewer points in seven of their last eight games overall and put up just 91.2 points per game on the season.  The Grizzlies have been held to 99 or fewer points in nine of their last 10 games overall.

Both meetings last season between these teams were very low-scoring.  They combined for 176 and 184 points in their last two meetings.  That's an average of 180 combined points per game, which is 15 points less than this 195-point total.

The UNDER is 13-5 in Grizzlies last 18 road games.  The UNDER is 33-13-1 in Grizzlies last 47 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Grizzlies last eight games vs. Western Conference opponents.  Take the UNDER in this game Tuesday.

25* Pre-New Year's Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Temple -1.5

The Temple Owls over the Toledo Rockets in the Boca Raton Bowl represents my strongest release of the bowl season prior to the new year.  That makes this my second-favorite bowl play of the season, only behind my 25* Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR, which will be coming later.  Wager accordingly.

After finishing 2-10 in 2013 and 6-6 last year while not getting selected to a bowl game, the Owls came into the season with the motto "Leave No Doubt".  They certainly left no doubt as they went 10-3 this season and were a win away from playing in a New Year's Day bowl.  Now they get to play in their first bowl game of the Matt Rhule era.

The Owls played a brutal schedule this year, too.  Their three losses came against very good teams.  They lost 20-24 at home to Notre Dame, which about made the four-team playoff.  They did have a 23-44 loss at South Florida, which is a Bulls team that is playing as well as almost anyone in the country, and that game was to get bowl eligible for the Bulls.  It was also a lookahead spot for Temple as it had Memphis on deck.

The other loss came in the AAC Championship in what turned out to be a true road game at Houston.  The Owls lost that game 13-24, but they actually outgained the Cougars by 46 yards in that contest.  They held the high-powered Cougars to just 339 yards in that loss, but two turnovers committed by their offense were their undoing.

This Temple defense is legitimately one of the top stop units in the country.  It held Notre Dame to just 24 points, Houston to 24 points, and a high-powered Memphis attack to just 12 points and 232 total yards.  The Owls only give up 19.2 points, 329.2 yards per game and 4.9 per play against teams that average 27.5 points, 403 yards per game and 5.6 per play.  Their defense is going to be the difference in this one.

Toledo is getting way too much credit for its 9-2 season that featured wins over Power 5 schools in Iowa State and Arkansas.  But the Rockets were outgained by 172 yards by Iowa State and only won that game in OT after the Cyclones missed a chip-shot field goal that would have won it.  They were also outgained by 197 yards in a fluke 16-12 win over Arkansas.

Temple head coach Matt Rhule is going to be on the sideline for this game after signing a new contract and seeing it through with his players that they win a bowl game after getting snubbed last year.  I trust in Bronko Nagurski Award winner Tyler Matakevich and this huge senior class at Temple to show up for this bowl game and finish the season on a high note with a win to get their 11th victory.

I do not trust the Toledo players to show up.  Head coach Matt Campbell left for Iowa State, leaving first-time coach Jason Candle to guide the Rockets.  That's one of the biggest factors in this game for me is that the Rockets have an interim coach after Campbell bailed on them.

I also like this matchup for the Owls.  The Rockets rely heavily on their running game to move the ball.  They rush for 213 yards per game and 5.1 per carry.  But the going is going to be tough against this Owls defense, which gives up just 126 rushing yards per game and 3.8 per carry.  The Owls held five of their opponents this season to season lows in yards.

Toledo is 0-7 ATS after allowing 6.25 or more yards per play in its previous game over the last there seasons.  Rhule is 9-2 ATS versus good offensive teams that score 31 or more points per game as the coach of Temple.  The Owls are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a straight up loss.  The Rockets are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss.  Bet Temple Tuesday.

15* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Xavier -7

The Xavier Musketeers have been the most underrated team in the country this season.  They made the Elite 8 last year, but everyone felt like they got lucky.  The Musketeers have been making a point to prove that it was no fluke and that they are a legitimate Final Four contender this year.

Indeed, they are off to an 11-0 start this season and have left almost everyone in the dust.  They are outscoring teams by 18.8 points per game.  They are scoring 81.7 points per game against teams that allow 68.9, and giving up 62.9 points per game against teams that score 73.4.  That's essentially a plus-24 mark based off of what their opponents average.

Let's highlight some of their wins just to show how good they really are.  They won by 16 in a true road game at Michigan, by 19 on a neutral court over Alabama, by 10 on a neutral court over USC, by 29 on the neutral court against Dayton, and by 10 at home against Cincinnati.

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are off to an 8-2 start this season, but they are only outscoring teams by 0.9 points per game.  They score 79.7 points per game against teams that allow 72.1, but they give up 78.8 points per game against teams that score 77.8.  That's only a plus-7 mark based off of what their opponents average.

Both teams have played equal schedules, so the Musketeers' plus-24 mark over the Demon Deacons' plus-7 mark means the Musketeers should be favored by 17 on a neutral court.  That also means they should be favored by 13-14 at Wake Forest, yet this line is only -7.

The Demon Deacons have been beaten badly at home against Richmond (by 9) and on a neutral court against Vanderbilt (by 22).  They also have narrow home wins this season over MD-Balt County (by 5), Arkansas (by 3), UNC-Greensboro (by 10) and Coastal Carolina (by 6).  Those performances don't lead me to believe that they can even keep this game close against arguably the best team in the country in Xavier.

Xavier is 8-0 ATS off a home blowout win by 20 points or more over the last three seasons.  The Musketeers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall.  The Demon Deacons are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.  Wake Forest is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following a win.  These four trends combine for a perfect 25-0 system backing the Musketeers.  Bet Xavier Tuesday.

15* Iowa State/Cincinnati ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Iowa State +4.5

The 11th-ranked Iowa State Cyclones needed a wake-up call.  They started the season 9-0 but gave lackluster efforts in the first 30 minutes of most of their games before turning it on in the final 10.  That was evident in an 83-82 win over Iowa in which they trailed by 20 points in the second half.

In their last game, the Cyclones trailed most the way against Northern Iowa and again made a comeback.  But it fell just short as they lost 79-81.  Now, everything went right for Northern Iowa as it shot 58% from the floor, including an unlikely 13-of-22 (59.1%) from 3-point range.  That's what it took to beat a team as good as the Cyclones.

But after getting that wake-up call, I expect to see the best effort of the season from the Cyclones tonight against the Cincinnati Bearcats.  They have shown what they're capable of when they have their foot on the gas in the final 10 minutes of games, and now I expect to see that effort over a full 40 minutes now that they finally lost a game.

Cincinnati has lost to the two best teams it has played in Xavier (lost by 10) and Butler.  It doesn't really have many good wins as its best victories have come against Nebraska (by 4), George Washington (by 5) and VCU (by 6).  While I expect the Cyclones to win this game outright, the +4.5 could certainly come into play if it's close late.

Cincinnati is 9-21 ATS in its last 30 games as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points.  The Cyclones are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Iowa State is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four road games.  The Cyclones are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss.  Roll with Iowa State Tuesday.

15* NBA Western Conference ANNIHILATOR on Utah Jazz -4

The Utah Jazz are way undervalued right now because of their recent results.  They have lost four of their last five games, but two of those came to Oklahoma City and another to San Antonio.  They lost to OKC by 4 and 6 points with one going into OT.  They did get back on track Friday with a 97-88 home win over the Nuggets, though.

Now the Jazz have had two days off since that game and will be well-rested and ready to go.  The same cannot be said for the Phoenix Suns, who lost 95-101 at home to the Milwaukee Bucks Sunday.  Now the Suns will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 6th game in 9 days.  They won't be able to match the Jazz's energy or intensity level in this one as a result.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 4-0 in the last four meetings.  The Jazz have won their last two home meetings with the Suns by 27 and 25 points.  They've won five of their last six home meetings with the Suns.  Phoenix has dropped 10 of 14 road games this season and 25 of 33 dating back to January.

The Jazz are 9-1 ATS after playing a game as a favorite this season.  The Suns are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.  Utah is 33-16 ATS when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points over the last two seasons.  Roll with the Jazz Monday.

25* MNF TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Lions/Saints OVER 50.5

While I would take the Saints if I was forced to take a side, I don't trust either of these teams against the spread.  I do, however, feel there is great value with the OVER in this game.  Both teams have been eliminated from playoff contention, and when two teams don't have anything to play for, there's a good chance it's going to be a high-scoring, playground-type game.  I foresee that being the case in this one, especially in front of the bright lights on Monday Night Football.

Both teams are used to playing inside a dome, and this will be ideal conditions for each to maximize their offense.  After all, the last four Saints' home games have all exceeded this 50.5-point total.  Indeed, they combined for 52 points with the Falcons (31-21), 101 points with the Giants (52-49), 62 points with the Titans (28-34) and 79 points with the Panthers (38-41) in their last four home games, respectively.  They have combined for an average of 73.5 points and 866 total yards per game with their opponents in their last four home games.  That's 23 more points than this 50.5-point total.

It has been well documented that the Saints are on a record-setting pace for attrition defensively this season.  They give up a league-most 30.5 points and 416.1 yards per game this season while surrendering 6.7 yards per play as well.  And it's not like the Lions have been a whole lot better as they give up 25.8 points and 5.8 yards per play this season, both among the worst marks in the league.
 
The Lions have been better offensively here of late as they are averaging 27.3 points per game in their last three contests.  The Saints still have a high-powered offense that puts up 24.8 points per game while ranking 4th in the NFL in total offense at 395.0 yards per game.  Plus, Drew Brees and company have really enjoyed facing the Lions.

The last four meetings in this series have seen 47, 73, 48 and 72 combined points with the 73 and 72-point performances both coming in New Orleans.  That's an average of 60.0 combined points per game.  The Saints have owned the Lions in the last five meetings, averaging 37.2 points and 503.8 yards per game.  They will certainly do their part in getting this OVER, and I fully expect one of the best offensive outputs of the season from the Lions against this putrid New Orleans defense.

The OVER is 5-1 in Lions last six games on fieldturf.  The OVER is 8-2 in Lions last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing record.  New Orleans is 18-6 to the OVER in its last 24 home games versus poor rushing teams that average 90 or fewer rushing yards per game.  Neither team can run the football, which is going to make this a pass-heavy game, and that favors the over with more clock stoppages.  The Saints are 32nd in the league in giving up 8.5 yards per pass attempt, while the Lions are 23rd at 7.7 per attempt.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Houston -2

The Houston Cougars are one of the most improved teams in the country this season under legendary head coach Kelvin Sampson.  They returned four starters this year and were going to be better, but not many saw this 8-1 start coming.  They continue to be undervalued here as only 2-point favorites over Grand Canyon in this Global Sports Classic in Las Vegas.

The Cougars have been rolling this season, averaging 85.6 points and 49.4% shooting offensively, while giving up 69.2 points and 43.1% shooting defensively.  They are outscoring foes by 16.4 points per game.  Their only loss came on the road at Rhode Island, and they've beaten the likes of LSU and Murray State.

Grand Canyon has certainly played well under head coach Dan Majerle.  It is 9-2 on the season, but that has come against a very easy schedule.  This is a team that lost 63-111 to Louisville.  But Grand Canyon comes in overvalued off a huge upset win at San Diego State on Friday, which sets it up for a letdown spot here.

The Cougars are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Houston is 7-1 ATS in its last eight non-conference games.  The Cougars are 4-0 ATS in their last four neutral site games.  The Antelopes are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  Take Houston Monday.

15* WKU/USF Miami Beach Bowl No-Brainer on South Florida +2.5

The South Florida Bulls are ecstatic to be playing in a bowl game this year.  After going a combined 6-18 in Willie Taggart's first two seasons, the Bulls put together an 8-4 campaign this year that not many saw coming.  This team was one of the most improved teams in the country, and yet they still aren't getting the respect they deserve here as underdogs to C-USA opponent Western Kentucky.

The Bulls head into this bowl game playing literally as well as almost anyone in the country.  They have won four straight and seven of their last eight.  The last four wins have been mighty impressive to say the least when you dive a little deeper into the box scores of the four games.

It started with a 22-17 win at East Carolina as 5.5-point dogs as the Bulls outgained the Pirates by 222 yards in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score.  Then came a 44-23 win over Temple as 2.5-point home dogs.  The Bulls outgained the Owls by 176 yards.  Then came a 65-27 home win over Cincinnati as 1-point dogs as the Bulls outgained the Bearcats by 131 yards.  They finished their season with a 44-3 win at UCF as 24.5-point favorites and outgained the Knights by 252 yards.

Add it all up, and this 4-0 run has seen the Bulls pull three 'upsets' while outscoring their four opponents by an average of 26.3 points per game and outgain them by an average of 195.3 yards per game.  In their last three games alone, the Bulls are putting up 52.3 points and 514.7 yards per game, while allowing just 21.0 points and 260.3 yards per game.  If that's not great football, then I don't know what is.

"The beauty is they're a young team, they're young guys, and they're learning to be that way at a young age," Taggart said. "The future is very bright here at USF."

That optimism is centered around a pair of sophomores, running back Marlon Mack (1,273 rushing yards, 8 TDs) and dynamic quarterback Quinton Flowers (883 rushing yards, 10 TDs, 21 TD passes). The duo heads a relentless rushing attack that's amassed at least 242 yards in all eight wins.

Western Kentucky also had a great season with an 11-2 record and a Conference USA Championship.  However, the difference is that C-USA isn't nearly as strong as the American Athletic.  So, Western Kentucky's wins over top C-USA teams like Marshall and Southern Miss aren't nearly as impressive as South Florida's wins over top AAC teams like Temple and Cincinnati.

We saw the Hilltoppers struggle when they stepped out of conference, which is an even bigger indication that C-USA isn't very good considering WKU is its best team.  WKU only beat Vanderbilt 14-12 and gained just 247 total yards against the Commodores.  WKU also lost to Indiana 35-38 and gave up 639 total yards to the Hoosiers.  The other loss was a 20-48 setback at LSU.

WKU is perceived to have the better offense because it put up better numbers than USF, but keep in mind it came against a much easier schedule.  I believe the way the Bulls are playing right now offensively that they are every bit as good as the Hilltoppers on that side of the ball.

But the difference is going to be USF's defense, which is better than WKU's stop unit.  The Bulls only give up 21.1 points, 361 yards per game and 5.0 per play this season.  The Hilltoppers allow 25.2 points, 389 yards per game and 5.5 per play this season.  Keep in mind the ease of the schedule in which the Hilltoppers played, too, when comparing these numbers.

South Florida is 9-0 ATS in games played on a grass field this season.  The Bulls are 7-0 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better over the last two years.  Stopping Brandon Doughty and the WKU passing attack will be key, and the Bulls have the goods to do it.  They give up just 54.5% completions, 221 passing yards per game and 6.6 yards per pass attempt.  Take South Florida Monday.

15* NBA Sunday No-Doubt Rout on New Orleans Pelicans -1

After going 45-37 last year, the New Orleans Pelicans had high hopes of being among the Western Conference's best teams this season.  Instead, injuries derailed them early, and despite the fact that they are now healthy, they continue to be inconsistent.  They are just 7-19 this year.

Things came to a boiling point in their loss to Phoenix on Friday, and first-year head coach Alvin Gentry called out his team.   ''Terrible, terrible, bad effort,'' Gentry said after a 104-88 loss to the Suns. ''Not playing hard, not giving a damn, that's the way I want to sum it up. We didn't play with effort. We didn't play together as a team, so nothing worked. Nothing, nothing.''

"We played terrible," start center Anthony Davis said. "We weren't competing and we didn't play hard. They just did whatever they wanted and we acted like we didn't want to be here."

After voicing their frustrations through the media and amongst each other, I fully expect the Pelicans to put forth their best effort of the season Sunday against the Denver Nuggets.  This is a team that they can and should beat with the talent they have, and with a little more effort here, I expect them to roll to victory.

The Nuggets come in overvalued after winning five of their last seven games, but four of those wins came by 6 points or less and by a combined 12 points.  They have beaten the Raptors, 76ers, Rockets & Timberwolves (twice) during this stretch.  They also lost by 11 to Orlando and by 9 to Utah.

Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series as the road team has won four straight meetings.  The Pelicans also want revenge from their 98-115 home loss to the Nuggets in their first meeting this season on November 17.

Denver is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home games after playing two consecutive road games.  The Pelicans are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 Sunday games.  The Nuggets are 16-38-2 ATS in their last 56 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Roll with the Pelicans Sunday.

20* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Green Bay Packers -3

I've been saying for a while now that Mike McCarthy needed to resume his old role of calling the plays for the Packers.  This offense was really lost up to this point and underperforming based off of the success they had in recent seasons.  But McCarthy finally made the right move and took over the playbook last week against the Cowboys.

The result? How about a 28-7 win over Dallas in which the Packers racked up 435 total yards, including 230 rushing, to take some pressure off of Aaron Rodgers.  This offense should keep rolling this week against an Oakland defense that is one of the worst in the NFL.

The Raiders rank 25th in total defense, giving up 373 yards per game.  They are also 28th against the pass, allowing an average of 371.5 passing yards per game.  While they are only giving up 101 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry, that's not that great when you consider their opponents only average 104 rushing yards per game and 4.0 per carry on the season.  This is just an average run defense, so expect Eddie Lacy to continue his late-season surge this week.

While the Packers have gotten it together offensively in recent weeks, their defense continues to play at a very high level.  They are only allowing 18.8 points per game on the season, including 15.7 points and 288.7 yards per game over their last three contests.

The Raiders could easily be 0-6 in their last six games instead of 2-4.  They needed a last-minute touchdown to beat Tennessee by 3.  Then they were thoroughly outplayed by Denver last week, getting outgained by 184 yards while being held to just 126 yards of total offense.  But somehow they managed to win that game 15-12, and now they are clearly being overvalued after that huge win.

The Raiders are just 2-4 at home this season and have one of the worst home-field advantages in the NFL.  They are 9-22 ATS in their last 31 games as a home underdog of 3 points or less.  They are losing in these games by an average of 9.0 points per game.  The Raiders are 16-35-1 ATS in their last 52 December games as well.

The Packers are notorious strong finishers as they are 4-0 ATS in their last four December games.  Green Bay is 57-33 ATS in the last four weeks of the regular season since 1992.  The Raiders are 6-15 ATS following an ATS win over the last three seasons.  McCarthy is 24-7 ATS vs. mistake-prone teams who commit 60-plus yards in penalties as the coach of Green Bay.  Jack Del Rio is 1-11 ATS in home games off a win by 6 points or less in all games he has coached.  Take the Packers Sunday.

25* NFL DOG OF THE YEAR on New York Giants +4.5

Eli Manning is a man of few words. However, after a three-game losing streak and a ton of close losses this season, Manning gave his team a speech leading up to the Miami game last week. It emphasized finishing games, and boy did he back up his talk. Manning had his best game of the year, completing 27 of 31 passes for 337 yards and four touchdowns without an interception in the 31-24 win at Miami. Look for this team to be brimming with confidence now heading into this game against undefeated Carolina.

Because the Giants have lost so many close games this year, it’s easy to see why I believe there is value in getting them as 4.5-point home underdogs here. Six of the Giants’ seven losses this season have come by 6 points or less, so they have only been blown out once all season. There’s a great chance this game is decided by less than 4.5 points.

I also like the fact that the Giants have a lot to play for right now and need this win more. They are currently in a 3-way tie with the Eagles and Redskins atop the NFC East as all three teams won last week. The Panthers can afford a loss now that they’re 13-0 knowing that they’d still be in line to earn the No. 1 seed in the NFC even with a defeat.

The Giants are 3-3 at home this season with wins over the Redskins, 49ers and Cowboys. But in their three losses, they held a late lead over the Patriots, Jets and Falcons. The blew a 20-10 fourth quarter lead against the Falcons and lost by 4, they blew an identical 20-10 fourth quarter lead against the Jets and lost in overtime by 3, and they allowed Tom Brady to engineer a game-winning drive, losing on a last-second field goal by 1. If they can play with the Patriots at home, then can certainly hang with the Panthers.

The fact of the matter is that bettors are being asked to pay a premium to back the Panthers right now. That’s because they are 13-0 SU & 10-3 ATS this season, making backers a ton of money at the pay window. This 4.5-point spread is essentially saying that the Panthers would be 7.5-point favorites on a neutral field, which is too much. The Panthers nearly lost as 5.5-point road favorites at New Orleans in their last road game, winning by 3. It’s time to fade this team here down the stretch.

Three key Carolina players are all nursing injuries but are expected to play Sunday. TE Greg Olsen (knee), QB Cam Newton (wrist) and LB Luke Kuechly (ankle) are all banged up right now. Now to mention, RB Jonathan Stewart will miss this game with a foot injury. Stewart is a big loss because he’s far and away the team’s top rusher with 989 yards and six touchdowns. Next in line are Mike Tolbert (175 yards) and Fozzy Whittaker (74 yards).

The Panthers are going to have their hands full with this Giants' passing attack that ranks 6th in the league at 272.0 yards per game.  Odell Beckham has been an absolute beast as he's tied for the NFL lead with 12 touchdown receptions.  Carolina is banged up in the secondary as well.  It lost cornerback Bene Benwikere to a fractured leg last weekend after he had been starting for Charles Tillman, who has missed the last four games with a sprained knee.

Plays against road favorites (CAROLINA) – off a home blowout win by 21 points or more are 67-36 (65%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Plays against road teams (CAROLINA) – off a win against a division rival, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season are 29-9 (76.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet the Giants Sunday.

15* Davidson/Pitt ESPNU Early ANNIHILATOR on Pittsburgh -5

The Pitt Panthers are one of the most improved teams in the country this season.  They are off to an 8-1 start with their only loss coming to Purdue, which is 11-1 on the season.  The numbers this team is putting up are very impressive and certainly lead me to believe they will win this game against Davidson by more than five points.

Jamie Dixon returned four starters and has his best team in years.  The Panthers are outscoring teams by 23.7 points per game this season.  They score 85.3 points per game against teams that give up 75.3 points per game, and they give up 61.6 points per game against teams that average 73.9.  That's roughly a plus-24 point edge against what their opponents average.

Davidson is also off to a solid 7-1 start, but this team has feasted on an easy schedule.  Its seven wins have come against UCF (by 5), College of Charleston (by 1), Mercer (by 6), Denison (by 13), Charlotte, (by 35), Eastern Washington (by 10), and Western Carolina (by 33).  As you can see, the Wildcats have won a lot of close games this year.

In their toughest game of the season, the Wildcats were thoroughly overmatched at North Carolina in a 65-98 road loss as 15-point dogs.  UNC is a better team than Pitt, but it's not that far off.  The Panthers are a real force to be reckoned with in the ACC this season.

Davidson is scoring 13 more points than its opponents give up on average, but it is giving up 2 more points than its opponents average.  That's a plus-11 point edge against what its opponents average.  Compare that to Pitt's plus-24 point edge, and I would make the Panthers 13-point favorites on a neutral court.  Well, this is on a neutral court, and the Panthers should be heavier favorites.

These teams do have a common opponent in Eastern Washington.  Davidson only beat Eastern Washington 96-86 as 16.5-point home favorites.  Pittsburgh beat Eastern Washington 84-51 as 19-point home favorites.  So, the Wildcats only won by 10 while the Panthers won by 33.  This is another sign that the Panthers are far and away the superior team.

The Wildcats are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.  Davidson is 0-5 ATS in its last five neutral site games.  The Wildcats are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.  Davidson is 1-6 ATS in its last seven Sunday games.  These four trends make for a combined 24-1 system going against the Wildcats.  Bet Pitt Sunday.

20* Arkansas State/LA Tech New Orleans Bowl BAILOUT on Louisiana Tech -1.5

Arkansas State rolled through the awful Sun Belt this season with a perfect 8-0 record.  They also went 6-2 ATS in those final eight games.  That finish has them way overvalued heading into this New Orleans Bowl against Louisiana Tech as just 1.5-point underdogs.

When the Red Wolves stepped out of conference against tougher competition, they really struggled.  They lost by 30 to Toledo and by 49 to USC en route to a 1-3 non-conference record.  Now they face the best team that they have since the non-conference in LA Tech.

The Bulldogs failed to cover the spread in their final two games this season, which I believe has them undervalued.  They have a sour taste in their mouths from a 34-point loss to Southern Miss in the finale that will have these players chomping at the bit to get back on the field and redeem themselves.  But everything that could go wrong against Southern Miss, did.  They turned the ball over 7 times to give the game away.

That loss to Southern Miss was one of four for the Bulldogs this season.  The other three all came on the road, including narrow losses to quality teams in Western Kentucky (by 3) and Kansas State (by 6, OT).  The other was a 25-point loss at SEC power Mississippi State.

LA Tech has had the opportunity to face a Sun Belt team this season, and it rolled.  The Bulldogs beat Louisiana-Lafayette by 29 and outgained the Rajin' Cajuns by 97 yards.  They won that game 43-14, limiting them to just 331 yards of total offense.  That gives LA Tech and Arkansas State a common opponent.

Arkansas State only beat Louisiana-Lafayette 37-27 on the road.  The Red Wolves won that game despite getting outgained by 50 yards by the Rajin Cajuns.  They allowed 485 total yards and were very fortunate to come away with a victory.

LA Tech played a tougher schedule than Arkansas State, yet it was still better statistically this season.  The Bulldogs are outgaining teams by 83 yards per game and 1.3 yards per play.  The Red Wolves are only outgaining teams by 51 yards per game and 0.4 yards per play.

This is a great matchup for the Bulldogs.  The Red Wolves rely heavily on the run, rushing for 236 yards per game and 5.0 per carry.  But the strength of the Bulldogs is their ability to stop the run defensively.  They give up just 116 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry.

This is going to be like a home game for LA Tech as it will be playing in their home state down in New Orleans.  Senior QB Jeff Driskel, who has thrown 24 touchdowns against eight interceptions while also rushing for 307 yards and five scores, wants to go out with a bang.

As does senior RB Kenneth Dixon, who has rushed for 971 yards and 22 total touchdowns this season despite missing two games with an ankle injury.  He has rushed for 4,378 yards in his career here.  His 83 career touchdowns are currently two behind Navy's Keenan Reynolds for the all-time mark, so he will certainly be determined to try and post one final big game to push Reynolds for that record.

This is a matchup of former conference rivals.  Louisiana Tech has gone 9-1 straight up in its last 10 meetings with Arkansas State with seven of those wins coming by 14 points or more.  Arkansas State is 2-14 ATS in its last 16 games after gaining 300 or more rushing yards in its last game.  LA Tech is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games following an upset loss as a favorite.  The Bulldogs are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a double-digit loss at home.  The Bulldogs are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.  Bet Louisiana Tech Saturday.

15* Baylor/Texas A&M ESPNU ANNIHILATOR on Texas A&M -2.5

The Baylor Bears are off to a 7-1 start because they have played one of the easiest schedules in the country.  They have played seven of their first eight games at home.  In their lone road game, they lost 67-74 at Oregon.  This will be just their second true road game of the season.

The Texas A&M Aggies are the real deal this season.  They are off to an 8-2 start despite playing a brutal schedule.  They have already faced the likes of Texas, Gonzaga, Syracuse and Arizona State all on the road, while also beating Kansas State by 10 at home.  They beat Texas and Gonzaga with their two losses coming to Syracuse and ASU.

So, the Aggies are clearly battle-tested due to the schedule they've been up against.  The Bears are not battle-tested at all.  I'll gladly back the better team that has played tougher competition up to this point, especially when that team is playing at home and laying only 2.5 points.  The Aggies are 6-0 at home this year, beating teams by 25.8 points per game.

Texas A&M is 6-0 ATS versus good passing teams that average 16 or more assists per game over the last three seasons.  The Aggies are 9-2 ATS versus good shooting teams that make 45% or more of their shots over the last two years.  The Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  The Aggies also have a nice scheduling advantage as they last played 7 days ago while the Bears last played 3 days ago.  Take Texas A&M Saturday.