Today’s Free Betting Picks from Top Sports ATS Cappers

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: New Mexico -6.5

I like the spot for the New Mexico Lobos Saturday as they host the Air Force Falcons.  The Lobos are coming off their bye week and have two full weeks to prepare for the triple-option.  The Falcons won't have the element of surprise here, plus New Mexico head coach Bronco Mendenhall has plenty of experience defending the triple-option.

The Lobos have been better than expected this season despite their 1-4 record.  They covered as 14-point dogs and nearly upset Montana State, which is one of the best FCS teams in the country.  They held their own against Arizona, Auburn and Fresno State.  They needed the bye week after that gauntlet, and they should come back refreshed and ready to go this week.

Air Force is one of the most overrated teams in college football this season.  The Falcons are 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS, and oddsmakers have failed to adjust enough for this being one of the worst teams in program history.  Their lone win came against FCS Merrimack 21-6 as 30-point favorites.  Merrimack went on to lose 63-17 to UConn the next week.  Their four losses all came by double-digits, including a 31-19 road loss at Wyoming, which is also one of the worst teams in college football.

This Air Force offense is the main culprit for their struggles.  The Falcons are scoring just 11.4 points per game, averaging 249 yards per game and just 3.4 yards per carry.  I don't believe they can keep up with this underrated New Mexico offense, which averages 32.0 points per game, 461.2 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play despite the tough schedule this season.  Bet New Mexico Saturday.

No. 1 Ranked Overall Capper All-Time! Jack Jones has absolutely CRUSHED the books over the past 7-plus years! He is riding a 5001-4329 Run L2588 Days on all premium plays that has seen his $1,000/game players cash in $282,630! He was the No. 6 Ranked Overall Capper in 2022 as well as the No. 8 Ranked Overall Capper in 2023 with his $1,000/game players up $92,690 in 2022 and 2023 combined!

No. 2 Ranked College Football Capper All-Time! Jack has delivered SIX Top-7 CFB Finishes L12 Years (#2 2012, #3 2018, #3 2014, #5 2016, #6 2020, #7 2017) to really put a beating on the books on the NCAA gridiron! He is riding a 1001-824 CFB Run long-term that has seen his $1,000/game players cash in $99,870!

Jack has delivered an EPIC 18-3 Run L6 Days on all premium plays which included a 9-0 CFB SWEEP last Saturday! This money train stays right on track with Jack's Saturday College Football 9-Pack for $59.95! Leading the charge are FOUR 20* Top Plays for you to crush your book with today folks!

It would cost you roughly $335.00 to buy all nine plays separately, so YOU SAVE $275.00 with this 9-Pack! Sign up and bet with confidence knowing you are GUARANTEED PROFITS or Sunday's entire NFL card is ON JACK!

1* NCAAF - Ga Tech/N Carolina FREE PICK on North Carolina +4

Dave's Saturday Free Play:

1* on Arkansas State/Texas State OVER 65.5

The Key: Two offensive-minded head coaches square off in this Sun Belt showdown between Texas State and Arkansas State Saturday.  Last year, Arkansas State turned their season around with a 77-31 win over Texas State that saw 108 combined points.  The Red Wolves kicked an onside kick up 28 and you can bet GJ Kinne and the Bobcats have not forgotten.  If they get the chance to run up the score in this one they will continue piling on the points.  Texas State is scoring 37.6 PPG and averaging 454 YPG this season and will be up against an Arkansas State defense that yields 30.2 PPG, 437 YPG and 6.7 YPP.  Texas State has faced an easy schedule of opposing offenses and even gave up 40 points to Sam Houston State and 31 to Arizona State.  Arkansas State has faced a tough schedule of opposing defenses including Iowa State and Michigan.  They should find some traction offensively this week against Texas State.  Take the OVER.

**4X Top 10 NCAAF Handicapper!** Dave was the #4 NCAAF Capper in 2011, the #7 NCAAF Capper in 2009 and the #5 NCAAF Capper in 2008! He had his best season to date finishing as the #2 Ranked NCAAF Capper in 2020! He is riding a 341-294 NCAAF Run over the past couple seasons! He is also on a 118-73 Run on NCAAF 7* Top Plays as well as a recent 10-3 NCAAF Run! Give your book the beating it deserves this weekend and hop on board for Dave's Saturday NCAA Football 9-Pack for $49.95! By doing so you'll earn access to his 7* NCAAF Blowout Game of the Year along with eight 6* picks in college football for you to crush your book with today ladies and gents! Dave guarantees you'll cash in a profit or you get Sunday's NFL picks for FREE!

1* Free Wiseguy Play on Memphis/South Florida under

*All picks are based on situations, trends, statistics and injuries among many other factors*

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Eastern Michigan +2.5

The Miami Ohio Redhawks are getting a lot of respect early in the season after winning the MAC last year.  But this team is a far cry from that one, and that has played out with the Redhawks going 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS through five games.  The only win came 23-20 at home over UMass.  That's the same UMass team that Eastern Michigan beat 28-14 on the road to give them a common opponent.  The Eagles have gone 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS this season and have been an undervalued commodity.  Their lone loss came on the road at Washington by 21 as 24.5-point dogs.  Their win over Jacksonville State has aged pretty well, and they blew out their other three opponents.  The Eagles had a bye last week so they will be the fresher team.  The Redhawks will be playing for a 4th consecutive week after losing to Cincinnati, Notre Dame and Toledo.  They have been through a tough stretch and I'm not quite sure how much they'll have left for EMU this week.  Wrong team favored.  Give me Eastern Michigan.

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*1518-1280 Football Run! ($1,000/game bettors up $111,440)*

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*780-657 Run on NCAAF 5 Unit Top Plays!*

I am the #4 Ranked Football Capper All-Time on this network! I am a 5-Time Top 3 NCAAF Capper and currently the #6 Ranked NCAAF Capper All-Time as well! I am riding a HOT 30-13 Run L12 Days in all sports that includes a 10-5 NCAAF Run! I keep the money coming your way this weekend with my Saturday All-Inclusive NCAAF 15-Pack for $49.99! This card features FIVE 5 Unit BEST BETS in the Cal/Pitt, Arkansas State/Texas State, Florida/Tennessee, Iowa State/Virginia & Boise State/Hawaii games! You pay *ONLY $3.33/Play* for all 15 winners, and you are GUARANTEED-to-PROFIT or I'll send you Sunday's NFL plays for FREE!

Rocketman Sports FREE CFB play Saturday 10-12-24

Ohio State @ Oregon  (7:30 PM EST)
Play On:  Oregon +3 1/2 -115

The Ohio State Buckeyes travel to Oregon to take on the Ducks on Saturday night.  Both teams come in with identical 5-0 SU overall records on the season.  Oregon is 34-1 SU last 35 home games including 11 in a row.  Oregon is 8-1-1 ATS last 10 games as an underdog against Big 10 opponents.  Oregon is scoring 35 points per game overall this year and 38 points per game past 3 games overall.  This should be a really good one.  We'll recommend a small play on Oregon tonight!  Thanks and good luck, Rocky

Rocky Atkinson is on an INCREDIBLE 113-81 (58%) run over his last 201 football picks! $1,000/game clients now up $23,510 since October 06, 2018!  Rocketman has two TOP 8* CFB BEST BETS and 6* CFB play for Saturday!

Rocky Atkinson has a TOP 8* NFL BEST BET for EARLY Sunday morning. One of the BEST HANDICAPPERS in the world is on an impressive 152-106 59% NFL run over his last 265 picks! Join the same handicapper that has made $1,000/game bettors $35,440 since December 15, 2013 with his Spread on Jaguars v. Bears!  Rocketman is documented 51-30 63% his last 81 NFL plays!

SATURDAY Loaded Card has the ACC Game of the Year early and a TOP TIER 1 Side and 6* going at night along with our Top total and NHL. MLB Play below.

The game 5 A.L.D.S Play is on Detroit at 1:10 eastern. The Tigers have Slubal going and he has allowed 2 or less runs in 10 straight starts and Rob note that game road favorites in the final game of a series are 8-2 since 2004. Skubal has allowed just 1 run in 14 innings against a Cleveland team that normally hits well vs leftys. Boyd for Cleveland has a nice ERA at home 2.25 this year. However he only goes 4-5 innings and likely wont be in long maybe he gets 2 trips around the order. Look for Detroit to pull it out. Rob V-

OHIO STATE/OREGON CFB FREE PICK

The Ohio State Buckeyes have started the season perfect 5-0 SU, and they are 3-1 ATS in their last four games. The Oregon Ducks are also 5-0 SU but only 1-4 ATS, although admittedly they have been dominant in all but one of their wins. 

These are two very solid teams, but I think the Buckeyes have a bigger edge than the market gives them credit for. Oregon gave up 34 points to Boise State in Week 2, and Ohio State has a well-balanced offense. Defensively, very few teams, if any, have been better than the Buckeyes. 

3% FREE PICK ON OHIO STATE. 

Mike Lundin is on a SIZZLING 14-3 (82%) RUN with his top-rated (4-5%) CFB picks on the season! He has a CFB 5-Game High Roller Report posted for Saturday, including his 5% CIN/UCF BIG 12 TOTAL OF THE YEAR MAX BET and 5% VAN/UK CFB GAME OF THE MONTH MAX BET!

For more information, check out Mike's complete selection of premium pick packages and subscription options on his handicapper page.

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take #128 Pittsburgh Panthers over California Golden Bears (3:30p.m., Saturday, October 12 ESPN) Cal is still in shellshock after blowing a big lead to Miami in the fourth quarter with some very questionable calls going against them. Now they must fly cross country to Pittsburgh to take on a 5-0 Panther squad. Pittsburgh is coming off a double-digit conference road win last time out and I see them winning this game by double digits as well. Lay the points with the home team on Saturday. Do not miss out on Doc’s Sports weekend card featuring a top play in college football.

Pure Lock's FREE NHL play Saturday 10-12-24

Washington +131

Pure Lock has a TOP NFL play available on Sunday on the Jaguars/Bears. Pure Lock is mainly known for his selectivity in handicapping all sports and normally releases one pick per sport per day or passes! QUALITY over Quantity here. Currently on an impressive 105-80 (57%) run over his last 193 football picks! $1,000 per game players have CASHED $17,070 since September 08, 2019!

 Pure Lock has a TOP WNBA play available on Sunday on the Lynx/Liberty. Pure Lock is mainly known for his selectivity in handicapping all sports and normally releases one pick per sport per day or passes! QUALITY over Quantity here. Currently on an impressive 22-4 (85%) run over his last 26 WNBA picks! $1,000 per game players have CASHED $17,620 since May 25, 2024!

Mikey Sports FREE CFB play Saturday 10-12-24

Marshall pickem

Mikey Sports is on an INCREDIBLE 21-8 (72%) run over his last 29 OVERALL picks! $1,000/game clients now up $11,750 since September 10, 2024!

Mikey Sports has been on an INCREDIBLE 21-8 (72%) RUN over his last 29 OVERALL picks! He has now made $1,000/game bettors $11,750 in profits since September 10, 2024. Join Mikey Sports with his TOP 10* NHL play for Saturday!

R&R Totals FREE CFB Over-Under Saturday 10-12-24

OVER 55 UAB/Army

R&R Totals has a TOP CFB Over-Under for Saturday! Now an impressive 2684-2413 (53%) over his last 5342 OVERALL picks! Join us and make money like the $1,000 per game clients who are up $53,780 since May 05, 2018!

R&R Totals has a TOP CFL Over-Under for Saturday! Now an impressive 20-8 (71%) over his last 29 CFL picks! Join us and make money like the $1,000 per game clients who are up $11,200 since August 18, 2023!

R&R Totals is on an INCREDIBLE 47-32 (59%) run over his last 83 NHL picks! $1,000/game clients now up $12,340 since February 27, 2024!  R&R Totals has a 2-Pack of NHL Totals for Saturday!

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#135 ASA PLAY ON Northern Illinois +3 over Bowling Green, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We love looking at underdogs that have a chance to dominate on the ground and that’s what we have here. NIU ranks 10th nationally averaging 230 YPG on the ground on 5.1 YPC. They are facing a BG defense that allows over 200 YPG on the ground and ranks outside the top 115 in both YPG allowed on the ground and YPC allowed. The Huskies rushing YPG differential is +113 while BG is -68 in that statistic. While BG has played the slightly higher strength of schedule, NIU’s is no slouch have played on the road at FBS opponents Notre Dame (NIU won by 2) and at NC State (NIU lost by 7 but outgained the Wolfpack by over 100 yards). The Falcons lost tough games @ Penn State and @ Texas A&M and those setbacks look like they’ve taken a lot out of this team as they haven’t been the same since. Two weeks ago those lost to a bad Old Dominion team as a double digit favorite and last week they barely got by at 1-5 Akron team (27-20) as a 16 point favorite. Those 2 teams have a combined record of 2-9 and Bowling Green was outgained on a YPP basis vs Akron and slightly outgained ODU. Not only should NIU control the trenches, they also have a much better overall defense ranking 11th in total defense and 19th in YPP allowed compared to 89th and 105th for the Falcon’s defense. NIU has a YPG differential of +100 and a YPP differential of +0.4. BG is +10 and dead even in those key stats. The better team is getting points here and we’ll grab the dog.

Ricky's 1* play on PIT.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- Pittsburgh are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games.

- Toronto are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games at home.

- Toronto are 4-9 SU in their last 13 games.

Verdict: The value is on the road Underdog.

My football is HEATING UP, and this week, WE SCORCH THR BOOKS: ACC GAME OF THE WEEK, 4-0-1 ODDSMAKERS MISTAKE, 66.6% CRUSHER, & 3-1 CONSENSUS WINNERS. Get them all and SCORCH YOUR BOOK.

Saturday’s FREE WINNER: Clemson

Game 147.

9:00 AM PST/12:00 PM EST.

Since their season-opening loss on the road at Georgia, Clemson has now rattled off four consecutive straight up wins, and are just a half-point away from covering four straight. Another victory here can further cushion the Tigers from the rest of the ACC. This might be a big number, but Wake Forest got crushed by 34 points at the hands of Mississippi. The Demon Deacons defense has gotten exploited in consecutive games by 31, 40, 41, and 30 points. I feel Clemson must make a statement here. Take the Tigers. Thank you.

The upcoming Mountain West Conference matchup between the San Diego State Aztecs (2-3) and the Wyoming Cowboys (1-4) on Saturday presents an interesting contest between two teams that have struggled but showed flashes of potential recently. San Diego State enters this game after a close 27-24 victory over Hawaii, which saw solid performances from quarterback Danny O'Neil (791 passing yards, 5 TDs this season) and running back Marquez Cooper, who rushed for over 100 yards and two touchdowns. The Aztecs' offense averages around 20.6 points per game, with their defense allowing about 22.4 points. They'll rely on their running game, as Wyoming has one of the weaker run defenses, allowing 185.2 rushing yards per game. Wyoming, on the other hand, comes off their first win of the season, a 31-19 upset over Air Force. They've struggled offensively, scoring just 16.4 points per game on average, and their passing game, led by quarterback Evan Svoboda, has been inconsistent. Defensively, Wyoming has allowed 32.4 points per game, but their third-down conversion rate of 36.5% is respectable. Wyoming's home-field advantage at War Memorial Stadium could play a crucial role, as they've historically performed well in conference home games. Both teams are known for inconsistent play this season, making this a close matchup. Neither team will compete in the postseason but Wyoming is my play here on Saturday

*Free Play on Ohio State* The Ohio State Buckeyes have the best unit on the field in their defense led by Jim Knowles. Caleb Downs has been a fantastic addition to the secondary, and I expect he and Denzel Burke to have a big game here for the Buckeyes. 

Oregon's defensive line is 64th in defensive line yards. Ohio State is 1st in offensive line yards. With Henderson and Judkins the Buckeyes have the best running back duo in the country. Will Howard will likely run it more often in this game too. I think Ohio State can be very successful on the ground in this matchup.

Dillon Gabriel isn't going downfield much at all this year, and he has made several bad decisions with the football. Oregon is 106th in offensive explosiveness in the country. The Ducks are up against an Ohio State defense that is 5th in the nation in success rate allowed. 

Ohio State hasn't been tested so far this year and that is the negative on them. The Buckeyes have a clear talent advantage though, and I think they'll come with a strong effort here.

Take Ohio State.

(31-14 last 45 college football plays. Saturday 5 or $75 Special Offer includes my Sun Belt Game of the Year. Get on board!) 

Cincinnati/UCF 3:30: Bearcats much improved from a season ago under Satterfield. They've got themselves a QB with Sorsby (66% completions; 12 TD/ 1 INT), a veteran offensive line and a quality run game. UCF defense, mediocre at best, has difficulty sacking (134th nationally - 0.6 sacks per game) the QB and that should prove to be fatal with big strike receivers Henderson and Covey running through the secondary. UCF 0-6 ATS off SU/ATS loss vs opponent off SU/ATS loss. Cincinnati sports a 6-1 ATS mark as a dogs of 2 or more points in the second of back-to-back road games. Look for the Bearcats to avenge last year's close loss. 

Chip’s FAB-5 NCAAF Best Bet Winners

Chip Chirimbes, Las Vegas Hilton Handicapping Champion, ‘Big-Game’ Player and Seven-time NCAA Champion was 5-1 in NCAF action last Saturday and has posted his FAB-5 of NCAAF Best Bet winners including Chip’s Highest-Rated Megabucks (4-2) winner between Ohio State and Oregon, his 'Top-Rated' Vegas Hotline winner between Penn State and USC, his Power Play winner between Arizona and BYU, his Money Game winner between Washington State and Fresno State and his Double-Down (Bail-Out) winner between Minnesota and UCLA. Get this 'Guaranteed' to 'Profit' FAB-5 of NCAAF Best Bet winners for only $99. 

Chips FREE NCAAF Best Bet winner

California at Pittsburgh 3:30 ET

Golden Bears (+) over Panthers- All week long I have been hearing what a tough spot that California is in after they blew a huge 2nd half lead against Miami. Now, they take to the road against an undefeated Pittsburgh club that is also 5-0 ATS. This number opened minus-3.5 and seemed a bit shy and all the interest has been on the Panthers and yet the price has dropped. Something tells me...take CALIFORNIA!

UNDER 62.5

LSU and Ole Miss clash in a big conference showdown and we’re on the Under. For starters, the trend this college season has been under for high totals. Entering Saturday, games with totals of 60 or more are hitting at a 63% rate to the under. Scoring has been down and this game is going to be dominated by the Rebels defense. They are near the top in the nation in rush yards against and they don’t allow a lot of big plays down field. This will be a game that’s won by both of these teams sustaining drives and winning the game with rushing. Expect a slow developing game and neither side will have any sort of explosive plays. Grab the under. My daily free plays are meant to be 5* bankroll plays. Remember folks, money management is the key to profits when it comes to sports gambling. Strong lean on THE UNDER ON SATURDAY. You know what to do. Hop ON! Good Luck, Razor Ray

Saturday 5* FREE NCAAF O/U Play

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Yes, an anticipated Vanderbilt letdown after upsetting Alabama last week is fully expected. 

But that's not the only reason why I like Kentucky to cover this number.
 
The Wildcats have one of the best defenses in the country. They give up the fifth-fewest yards per game and rank 11th in scoring defense holding foes to 13.4 points a game. The Wildcats held the powerful offenses of Georgia and Mississippi to season-lows in points. 

Kentucky's offense is not on par with its defense. But Brock Vandragriff is improving at quarterback and faces arguably the SEC's weakest defense. Vanderbilt ranks 90th in pass defense. The Commodores are giving up an average of 33.6 points during their past three games. 

Vanderbilt runs a sophisticated offense that features a lot of triple-option looks. Kentucky not only catches a break with Vanderbilt in a prime letdown spot, but the Wildcats were idle last week. That gave them ample practice time to key on Vanderbilt's intricate attack and quarterback Diego Pavia. 

Kentucky has won seven of the past eight times the teams have met. The Wildcats are 8-2 SU and ATS during the last 10 meetings. 

(Editor's note: Stephen Nover is 26-13 on his premium/free college football picks this season for 67 percent. Stephen has three premium CFB plays going Saturday in addition to this free selection headed by his SEC Game of the Month.)

Saturday's Free NCAAF Pick

PLAY ON: Tennessee -14

I'm betting the Volunteers as a 14-point favorite against the Gators. The only thing that's keeping this from being a premium selection, is the lookahead spot with a home game against Alabama on deck. I just think it will be hard for them to lookahead coming off that upset loss at Arkansas. There's more wiggle room with the 12-team playoff, but a loss here and a loss at home to Alabama or at Georgia and they probably don't have a shot. My money is on them to show up against what I think is a very mediocre Florida team. The Gators come in off back-to-back wins and covers at Miss St and home vs UCF. I don't think either of those teams are any good. They were lucky to only lose by 13 at home to Texas A&M (gave up 488 total yards) and lost 17-41 at home to Miami (gave up 529 yards). I don't think Florida's offense will be able to enough here to keep this one close. Give me Tennessee -14! 

In games featuring two ranked teams darting back 7 seasons, home sides  are 178-88 SU and 151-107-8 ATS for. a 59% conversion rate for bettors. .Considering OSU’s  1-5 ATS record away when both squads are unbeaten we have a trending situation that favors the home side.It must be noted that the last time these teams met back in 2021 the Ducks waddled away with the victory and according to my projections are live dogs in this spot play situation. 

Play on 

Saturday CFB Free play. My selection is on Oklahoma plus the points over Texas at 3:30 pm et on Saturday.

Most wrote off Oklahoma following its home loss against Tennessee two games back but I liked what I saw out of the Sooners in their bounce-back performance on the road against Auburn. Off its bye week, I expect Oklahoma to give rival Texas its best shot. The Longhorns are obviously the hunted right now as they check in undefeated on the season. Of course you can throw records out the window in rivalry matchups such as this one. Oklahoma has owned this series in recent years, winning five of the last six and 11 of the last 14 meetings. Also note that four of the last five matchups have been decided by eight points or less. Take Oklahoma.

Browns vs Eagles 
1 ET | Citizens Bank Park | FOX 
5-Unit Bet on the Browns priced as 9.5-point underdogs. 

The Eagles are a team in flux, and it all starts at the top of the coaching staff and then trickles down to the players, who really do not know which coach is steering the ship. They will get back their two top wide receivers in AJ Brown and Davonte Smith, who both will have a significant impact on the performance of the offense. However, they need to execute no matter who is on the field of play and that has been largely absent since week 1. 

Currently, both WR are expected to start this Sunday, but they are listed as questionable Monday morning. The market has priced them as starting so getting 50% of your bet placed now is a wise strategy because if either does not start this line is going to move toward 7.5 points ahead of the kickoff. 

Offensive multi-All-Pro tackle Lane Johnson is expected to start but is listed as questionable, His level of play has hurt the offensive line’s pass protection, and the result has been that QB Hurts gets flushed out of the pocket early and he then holds on to the ball too long searching for an open receiver.  

The Eagles rank 7th in the NFL gaining an average of 366 YPG but rank 17th averaging 5.5 yard per play and 31st averaging two turnovers per game. The Eagles ground attack led by Barkley has been their saving grace and as a unit rank 4th averaging 154 yards per game and they will need to pound the rock successfully against the Browns defense and control the clock as a game-winning plan. 

The Eagles have had their BYE week and expect them to come in with a offensive game plan to attack the middle of the field with vertical crossing routes. Currently, the Eagles have not stretched defenses with vertical routes as they have averaged just 6.29 adjusted yards per pass attempt. The formula for this ratio is: 

(Passing yards + 20*passing TDs – 45* interceptions)/(pass attempts) 

930 passing yards + 20*4 passing TDs- 4*45 interceptions)/(132 pass attempts) 
(930+80-180)/(132) 

830/132 = 6.29 adjust passing yards per attempt. 

By comparison, the Broncos are last with a 3.6 adjusted passing yards per attempt and the 5-0 Vikings are tops with an impressive 9.6 adjusted passing yards per attempt. So, the Eagles must improve on this passing metric not just this coming week but over the remainder of the season if they are going to make any deep run in the playoffs.  

The Cleveland Defense 

The largest problem for the Eagles offensive line to navigate is the fact that the Browns defense ranks 6th with a 32% blitz percentage, 7th with a 12.4% quarterback knockdown, and have pressured the quarterback on 25% of their defensive plays. The Browns will blitz even more in this game looking to prevent Hurts from looking downfield to complete large chunk gain passes.  

The Philadelphia Defense 

To sum up the Eagles defense with just one meaningful metric is that they rank 26th with a –31.2 expected points contributed by the defense and that compares poorly to the NFL league average of –10.5 this season. Before the season started, the Eagles were expected to score a ton of points and simply outscore their opponents to earn wins. However, the offense is scoring just 21 PPG and the defense allowing even more. My experience tells me that the problems on the sidelines between the coaches and the offensive issues with executing plays to move the chains is not going to improve simply with the return of three players. 

The Analytics in 2024 

The larger underdogs have performed extremely well from a straight-up (SU) and against-the-spread (ATS) in the first five weeks of the season. Teams priced as the underdog, including pick-em have produced a 29-48 SU and 40-36-1 ATS record (53%) so far. Underdogs of 6 or more points have produced a highly profitable 9-10 SU and 16-3 ATS record (84%) and marks the highest ATS win percentage through five weeks ever since 1989 and the highest since the 1999 season where these pups went 9-22 SU and 20-8-3 ATS for 71.4% winning bets. If these dogs were on the road, they have gone 8-8 SU and 14-2 ATS (88%) this season and the highest win percentage sice 1999 when they went 8-18 SU and 18-6-2 ATS (75%). 

The NFL Betting Algorithm for Week 6 

The following NFL betting algorithm has produced a highly profitable 40-55 SU and 62-33 ATS mark good for 65% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. The requirements are: 

Bet on underdogs priced between 3.5 and 10 points. 

That dog has committed no more than a single turnover in each of their two previous games. 

They are facing a favorite, whose defense forced zero turnovers in their previous game. 

If the favorite is coming off the BYE week our underdogs have barked fiercely going 5-6 SU and 9-2 ATS for 82% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.