Odds to Win the 2020 Men’s NCAA Basketball Tournament & Final Four

Avatar

College basketball futures tend to be even more unpredictable than futures in most other sports.  You have a huge field of potential teams to start with.  With just five starters and thirteen players in total on each team, there is potential there for one or two excellent players to overcome a team that has better talent overall.  College basketball teams are also notoriously streaky with regards to shooting, so if a team gets hot or cold at the right time their fortunes can change on a dime.  This is nowhere more apparent than the NCAA Tournament, where top teams often fall in the early rounds to smaller schools.

The table below lists the top teams according to the odds at BetOnline sportsbook.

Vegas Betting Favorites to Win the Final Four & 2020 NCAA Tournament

It’s still early in the season, but the odds now showing a clear projected Final Four in Kansas, Gonzaga, Dayton, and Baylor. Dayton is the most notable team here as they have recently rocketed into the Final Four conversation with a 27-2 record. Meanwhile, Michigan State was at the top of this list most of the early season, but has fallen to 20-9 and projected to finish outside of the Elite 8 in the tournament.

Here’s a look at the projected Final 4 and championship matchups and winner based on current market odds.

2020 March Madness Futures Odds

Projected Final Four: Kansas, Gonzaga, Dayton, Baylor

Projected Championship Matchup: Kansas vs Gonzaga

Projected NCAA Tournament Champions: Kansas

Team 2019-20 Record Conference Scoring Margin Odds Change NCAA Tournament
Kansas 26-3 Big 12 13.8 +600 +300 8.02%
Gonzaga 29-2 West Coast 20.1 +700 +300 7.02%
Dayton 27-2 A-10 14.8 +1000 +1500 5.10%
Baylor 25-3 Big 12 12.1 +1200 +400 4.32%
Duke 23-6 ACC 14.4 +1400 -400 3.74%
Kentucky 24-5 SEC 9.1 +1400 None 3.74%
San Diego State 28-1 MWC 15.2 +1400 +1100 3.74%
Louisville 24-6 ACC 10.8 +1600 -400 3.30%
Florida State 24-5 ACC 9.6 +2000 +1300 2.67%
Maryland 23-6 Big Ten 7.8 +2000 -600 2.67%
Michigan State 20-9 Big Ten 11.3 +2000 -1100 2.67%
Seton Hall 21-7 Big East 8.0 +2000 +1300 2.67%
Arizona 19-10 Pac-12 11.5 +2500 +800 2.16%
Oregon 22-7 Pac-12 8.1 +2500 -900 2.16%
Butler 20-9 Big East 6.1 +3300 None 1.65%
Creighton 22-7 Big East 7.0 +3300 +6700 1.65%
Iowa 20-9 Big Ten 6.2 +3300 +6700 1.65%
Ohio State 20-9 Big Ten 9.9 +3300 -2100 1.65%
West Virginia 19-10 Big 12 7.8 +3300 +700 1.65%
Clemson 15-13 ACC 3.0 +4000 +21000 1.37%
Michigan 18-11 Big Ten 6.9 +4000 -2000 1.37%
Penn State 21-8 Big Ten 8.0 +4000 +6000 1.37%
Villanova 22-7 Big East 7.2 +4000 -700 1.37%
Wisconsin 19-10 Big Ten 4.7 +4000 +2600 1.37%
Auburn 24-5 SEC 7.5 +5000 -1700 1.10%
Florida 18-11 SEC 5.8 +5000 -3000 1.10%
Illinois 20-9 Big Ten 6.0 +5000 +5000 1.10%
Providence 17-12 Big East 4.1 +5000 +20000 1.10%
Purdue 15-14 Big Ten 5.7 +5000 None 1.10%
Rutgers 18-11 Big Ten 6.0 +5000 +10000 1.10%
Texas Tech 18-11 Big 12 9.2 +5000 -1700 1.10%
Virginia 21-7 ACC 4.8 +5000 -1700 1.10%
BYU 24-7 West Coast 10.9 +6600 New 0.84%
Houston 22-7 AAC 10.8 +6600 None 0.84%
Indiana 18-11 Big Ten 4.3 +6600 +1400 0.84%
Memphis 20-9 AAC 7.6 +6600 -3300 0.84%
Alabama 16-13 SEC 4.1 +8000 None 0.69%
Arizona State 19-10 Pac-12 3.5 +8000 +2000 0.69%
Cincinnati 18-10 AAC 5.5 +8000 -3000 0.69%
Colorado 21-9 Pac-12 7.6 +8000 -5500 0.69%
Marquette 18-10 Big East 6.7 +8000 -3000 0.69%
TCU 16-13 Big 12 0.3 +8000 New 0.69%
Texas 18-11 Big 12 1.7 +8000 -4700 0.69%
LSU 20-9 SEC 7.0 +10000 -2000 0.56%
Minnesota 13-15 Big Ten 3.8 +10000 New 0.56%
NC State 18-11 ACC 4.9 +10000 +10000 0.56%
Syracuse 16-13 ACC 4.3 +10000 +5000 0.56%
Tennessee 16-13 SEC 3.6 +10000 -6000 0.56%
Texas A&M 14-14 SEC -2.6 +10000 New 0.56%
UCLA 19-11 Pac-12 1.7 +10000 +5000 0.56%
USC 21-9 Pac-12 4.4 +10000 +5000 0.56%
Utah State 23-8 MWC 10.1 +10000 -6000 0.56%
Wichita State 22-7 AAC 8.1 +10000 -5000 0.56%
Xavier 19-10 Big East 3.8 +10000 -5000 0.56%
Arkansas 18-11 SEC 6.3 +15000 -5000 0.37%
Connecticut 17-12 AAC 5.9 +15000 -8400 0.37%
Davidson 15-13 A-10 5.9 +15000 +10000 0.37%
Georgetown 15-14 Big East 1.9 +15000 +10000 0.37%
Liberty 27-4 Big South 12.8 +15000 +35000 0.37%
Oklahoma 18-11 Big 12 3.0 +15000 None 0.37%
Rhode Island 20-8 A-10 5.7 +15000 New 0.37%
Saint Mary’s 24-7 West Coast 8.1 +15000 -8400 0.37%
SMU 19-9 AAC 4.9 +15000 +10000 0.37%
South Carolina 17-12 SEC 4.0 +15000 None 0.37%
Stephen F. Austin 26-3 Southland 11.2 +15000 -5000 0.37%
UNLV 17-14 MWC 2.3 +15000 New 0.37%
VCU 18-11 A-10 6.4 +15000 -5000 0.37%
Virginia Tech 15-14 ACC 2.9 +15000 None 0.37%
East Tennessee State 27-4 Southern 8.7 +25000 New 0.22%
Georgia Tech 15-14 ACC 0.7 +25000 None 0.22%
Mississippi State 19-10 SEC 5.2 +25000 -10000 0.22%
New Mexico State 24-6 WAC 7.5 +25000 New 0.22%
Notre Dame 18-11 ACC 5.2 +25000 None 0.22%
Pittsburgh 15-15 ACC 0.2 +25000 -10000 0.22%
Richmond 22-7 A-10 8.2 +25000 None 0.22%
Temple 14-15 AAC 0.8 +25000 None 0.22%
Tulsa 20-9 AAC 5.0 +25000 New 0.22%
Boston College 13-16 ACC -4.8 +50000 None 0.11%
UMBC 14-16 America East -4.3 +50000 None 0.11%
Vermont 23-7 America East 10.6 +50000 None 0.11%
Winthrop 21-10 Big South 6.6 +50000 New 0.11%
Wright State 25-6 Horizon 9.6 +50000 New 0.11%

Included in the table below are the regular season records for each team last year, their conference, Power Index (average margin of victory last season), current odds, change in the odds since last week’s update, and the normalized implied probability to win the NCAA Tournament based on the current market odds.

We’ve included the probability for each team to win the tournament based on the odds and the field listed (NCAA Tournament column).  It is sometimes easier to grasp what the odds are trying to say when thinking in terms of percentage probability versus how much a $100 bet would payout (e.g. +500 means a $100 bet would pay out $500).  The change column shows how much the odds have improved or decreased for that team since our last update.  If a team is “New” this means they were not listed as of our previous update.  Our Power Index is the approximate number of points a team would be favored by on a neutral court against an average college basketball team.

Be sure to check out the daily college basketball odds each night of the season to see if there is any value with these teams or others.

Read More Like This