Odds to Win the 2019 Men’s NCAA Basketball Tournament & Final Four

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College basketball futures tend to be even more unpredictable than futures in most other sports.  You have a huge field of potential teams to start with.  With just five starters and thirteen players in total on each team, there is potential there for one or two excellent players to overcome a team that has better talent overall.  College basketball teams are also notoriously streaky with regards to shooting, so if a team gets hot or cold at the right time their fortunes can change on a dime.  This is nowhere more apparent than the NCAA Tournament, where top teams often fall in the early rounds to smaller schools.

The table below lists the top teams according to the odds at 5Dimes sportsbook.  We recommend 5Dimes for basketball betting because they offer reduced juice, giving you an edge you aren’t likely to find anywhere else.

Vegas Betting Favorites to Win the Final Four & 2019 NCAA Tournament (Updated)

Villanova was the 2017-18 NCAA Tournament Champion in what was truly a dominating season.  The Wildcats lost just four games in the regular season (32-4) and made their bracket look easy, winning by an average of almost 19 point per game, including a 17-point win over Michigan in the championship.

Despite that dominance, Duke is the overwhelming favorite to win this year’s NCAA Tournament.  Surprisingly, their loss to North Carolina this weekend did not have any impact on their odds. UNC, however, saw a big jump with the win.

2019 March Madness Futures Odds

Projected Final Four:  Duke, Gonzaga, Virginia, Tennessee

Projected Championship Matchup: Duke vs Gonzaga

Projected NCAA Tournament Champions: Duke Blue Devils

Team 2018-19 Record Conference Scoring Margin Odds Change NCAA Tournament
Duke 26-5 ACC 16.7 +220 None 21.20%
Gonzaga 29-2 West Coast 24.9 +570 +190 10.13%
Virginia 28-2 ACC 17.6 +685 +180 8.64%
Tennessee 27-4 SEC 13.7 +965 +235 6.37%
Kentucky 26-5 SEC 11.6 +1000 -100 6.17%
North Carolina 26-5 ACC 13.6 +1025 +375 6.03%
Michigan State 25-6 Big Ten 13.8 +1250 -150 5.03%
Michigan 26-5 Big Ten 11.6 +1400 -150 4.52%
Texas Tech 26-5 Big 12 14.4 +1850 +2150 3.48%
Kansas State 24-7 Big 12 6.8 +3000 +1750 2.19%
Purdue 23-8 Big Ten 9.7 +3000 -350 2.19%
Nevada 28-3 MWC 14.9 +3250 -900 2.03%
Houston 29-2 AAC 14.8 +4000 +1400 1.65%
Iowa State 20-11 Big 12 8.9 +4750 +250 1.40%
Marquette 23-8 Big East 8.2 +5000 -250 1.33%
Villanova 22-9 Big East 7.5 +5000 -2350 1.33%
LSU 26-5 SEC 8.7 +5400 -400 1.23%
Kansas 23-8 Big 12 5.5 +6000 -3200 1.11%
Florida State 25-6 ACC 8.5 +6600 +13400 1.01%
Virginia Tech 23-7 ACC 12.3 +7000 -400 0.96%
Maryland 22-9 Big Ten 6.7 +8000 -500 0.84%
Louisville 19-12 ACC 6.9 +8500 -1500 0.79%
Wisconsin 22-9 Big Ten 8.4 +8500 -1500 0.79%
Syracuse 19-12 ACC 4.2 +8500 -1000 0.79%
St John’s 20-11 Big East 3.7 +10000 +20000 0.67%
Mississippi State 22-9 SEC 7.1 +10000 -2000 0.67%
Iowa 21-10 Big Ten 5.0 +10000 +15000 0.67%
Auburn 22-9 SEC 10.3 +10000 -3500 0.67%
Cincinnati 25-6 AAC 9.7 +12500 -2500 0.54%
Wofford 28-4 Southern 13.7 +15000 +85000 0.45%
Washington 24-7 Pac-12 6.4 +20000 -12000 0.34%
Buffalo 28-3 MAC 13.4 +20000 +7500 0.34%
Texas 16-15 Big 12 4.1 +20000 -10000 0.34%
Baylor 19-12 Big 12 5.2 +20000 +25000 0.34%
Arizona State 21-9 Pac-12 4.8 +30000 +20000 0.23%
Florida 17-14 SEC 4.5 +30000 -20000 0.23%
Hofstra 26-6 CAA 10.4 +30000 New 0.23%
Mississippi 20-11 SEC 5.4 +30000 New 0.23%
TCU 19-12 Big 12 4.3 +30000 +70000 0.23%
Xavier 17-14 Big East 1.4 +30000 -10000 0.23%
Indiana 17-14 Big Ten 4.0 +40000 +160000 0.17%
Lipscomb 25-7 Atlantic Sun 11.5 +50000 None 0.14%
Oklahoma 19-12 Big 12 3.1 +50000 -30000 0.14%
Belmont 26-5 Ohio Valley 12.2 +50000 +150000 0.14%
Butler 16-15 Big East 2.1 +50000 +30000 0.14%
Central Florida 23-7 AAC 8.9 +50000 +50000 0.14%
VCU 25-6 A-10 10.3 +50000 +50000 0.14%
Loyola Chicago 20-13 MVC 4.6 +75000 +25000 0.09%
Minnesota 19-12 Big Ten 2.4 +100000 None 0.07%
Old Dominion 23-8 C-USA 5.7 +100000 +100000 0.07%
Oregon 19-12 Pac-12 6.3 +100000 +100000 0.07%
Oregon State 18-12 Pac-12 4.2 +100000 +100000 0.07%
Saint Mary’s 20-11 West Coast 8.5 +100000 -25000 0.07%
San Diego State 19-12 MWC 2.8 +100000 +400000 0.07%
Murray State 27-4 Ohio Valley 13.2 +100000 None 0.07%
New Mexico State 27-4 WAC 11.6 +100000 None 0.07%
Ohio State 18-13 Big Ten 3.7 +100000 -93000 0.07%
Alabama 17-14 SEC 0.9 +100000 None 0.07%
Harvard 17-10 Ivy 1.5 +100000 +400000 0.07%
Georgetown 19-12 Big East 2.2 +100000 None 0.07%
Fresno State 22-8 MWC 8.9 +100000 None 0.07%
Vermont 25-6 America East 8.5 +100000 None 0.07%
Utah 17-13 Pac-12 1.5 +100000 +100000 0.07%
UC Irvine 27-5 Big West 7.9 +100000 New 0.07%
Temple 23-8 AAC 4.0 +100000 None 0.07%
South Dakota State 24-8 The Summit 11.2 +100000 None 0.07%
Seton Hall 18-12 Big East 2.2 +100000 -70000 0.07%
South Carolina 16-15 SEC -1.0 +100000 None 0.07%

Included in the table below are the regular season records for each team last year, their conference, Power Index (average margin of victory last season), current odds, change in the odds since last week’s update, and the normalized implied probability to win the NCAA Tournament based on the current market odds.

We’ve included the probability for each team to win the tournament based on the odds and the field listed (NCAA Tournament column).  It is sometimes easier to grasp what the odds are trying to say when thinking in terms of percentage probability versus how much a $100 bet would payout (e.g. +500 means a $100 bet would pay out $500).  The change column shows how much the odds have improved or decreased for that team since our last update.  If a team is “New” this means they were not listed as of our previous update.  Our Power Index is the approximate number of points a team would be favored by on a neutral court against an average college basketball team.

Be sure to check out the daily college basketball odds each night of the season to see if there is any value with these teams or others.

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