Odds to Win the 2021 Men’s NCAA Basketball Tournament & Final Four

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College basketball futures tend to be even more unpredictable than futures in most other sports.  You have a huge field of potential teams to start with.  With just five starters and thirteen players in total on each team, there is potential there for one or two excellent players to overcome a team that has better talent overall.  College basketball teams are also notoriously streaky with regards to shooting, so if a team gets hot or cold at the right time their fortunes can change on a dime.  This is nowhere more apparent than the NCAA Tournament, where top teams often fall in the early rounds to smaller schools.

The table below lists the top teams according to the odds at BetOnline sportsbook.

Vegas Betting Favorites to Win the Final Four & 2021 NCAA Tournament

Here’s a look at the projected Final 4 and championship matchups and winner based on current market odds.

2021 March Madness Futures Odds

Projected Final Four: Villanova, Iowa, Baylor, Gonzaga

Projected Championship Matchup: Villanova vs Iowa

Projected NCAA Tournament Champions: Villanova

Team 2019-20 Record Conference Scoring Margin Odds Change NCAA Tournament
Villanova 22-7 Big East 6.8 +700 +3300 5.99%
Iowa 20-9 Big Ten 5.5 +750 +2550 5.64%
Baylor 25-3 Big 12 11.0 +900 +300 4.79%
Gonzaga 29-2 West Coast 19.6 +900 -200 4.79%
Kentucky 24-5 SEC 8.3 +1100 +300 3.99%
Kansas 26-3 Big 12 13.3 +1200 -600 3.68%
Virginia 21-7 ACC 4.7 +1200 +3800 3.68%
Duke 23-6 ACC 14.5 +1400 None 3.19%
Illinois 20-9 Big Ten 5.4 +1400 +3600 3.19%
Michigan State 20-9 Big Ten 11.2 +1600 +400 2.82%
West Virginia 19-10 Big 12 7.9 +1600 +1700 2.82%
Wisconsin 19-10 Big Ten 5.0 +1600 +2400 2.82%
Creighton 22-7 Big East 7.6 +1800 +1500 2.52%
Florida State 24-5 ACC 9.6 +1800 +200 2.52%
North Carolina 12-17 ACC -0.6 +1800 New 2.52%
San Diego State 28-1 MWC 14.5 +2000 -600 2.28%
Tennessee 16-13 SEC 2.9 +2200 +7800 2.08%
Texas Tech 18-11 Big 12 8.4 +2200 +2800 2.08%
Michigan 18-11 Big Ten 6.8 +2500 +1500 1.84%
Oregon 22-7 Pac-12 9.1 +2800 -300 1.65%
Florida 18-11 SEC 5.8 +3000 +2000 1.55%
Ohio State 20-9 Big Ten 9.1 +3000 +300 1.55%
UCLA 19-11 Pac-12 1.6 +3000 +7000 1.55%
Louisville 24-6 ACC 10.4 +3300 -1700 1.41%
Seton Hall 21-7 Big East 6.8 +3300 -1300 1.41%
Houston 22-7 AAC 10.2 +3500 +3100 1.33%
Arizona State 19-10 Pac-12 3.4 +4000 +4000 1.17%
Auburn 24-5 SEC 7.6 +4000 +1000 1.17%
Indiana 18-11 Big Ten 4.7 +4000 +2600 1.17%
LSU 20-9 SEC 7.2 +4000 +6000 1.17%
Arizona 19-10 Pac-12 11.1 +5000 -2500 0.94%
Connecticut 17-12 AAC 5.8 +5000 +10000 0.94%
Maryland 23-6 Big Ten 7.3 +5000 -3000 0.94%
Stanford 20-9 Pac-12 7.0 +5000 New 0.94%
Rutgers 18-11 Big Ten 6.0 +6000 -1000 0.79%
Texas 18-11 Big 12 0.9 +6000 +2000 0.79%
USC 21-9 Pac-12 4.3 +6000 +4000 0.79%
Memphis 20-9 AAC 7.1 +7500 -900 0.63%
Arkansas 18-11 SEC 6.2 +8000 +7000 0.59%
BYU 24-7 West Coast 10.5 +8000 -1400 0.59%
Dayton 27-2 A-10 15.5 +8000 -7000 0.59%
Miami FL 14-14 ACC -2.0 +8000 New 0.59%
Purdue 15-14 Big Ten 5.5 +8000 -3000 0.59%
Richmond 22-7 A-10 8.5 +8000 +17000 0.59%
Butler 20-9 Big East 6.4 +10000 -6700 0.47%
Colorado 21-9 Pac-12 6.6 +10000 -2000 0.47%
Marquette 18-10 Big East 6.1 +10000 -2000 0.47%
Minnesota 13-15 Big Ten 4.8 +10000 None 0.47%
Oklahoma 18-11 Big 12 2.8 +10000 +5000 0.47%
Penn State 21-8 Big Ten 6.9 +10000 -6000 0.47%
Syracuse 16-13 ACC 5.1 +12500 -2500 0.38%
Cincinnati 18-10 AAC 5.6 +20000 -12000 0.24%
Iona 11-14 MAAC -0.9 +25000 New 0.19%
Ole Miss 14-15 SEC 0.5 +25000 New 0.19%
Connecticut 17-12 AAC 5.8 +5000 +10000 0.94%
Davidson 15-13 A-10 5.2 +15000 None 0.32%
Georgetown 15-14 Big East 0.8 +15000 None 0.32%
Liberty 27-4 Big South 12.4 +15000 None 0.32%
Oklahoma 18-11 Big 12 2.8 +10000 +5000 0.47%
Rhode Island 20-8 A-10 4.5 +15000 None 0.32%
Saint Mary’s 24-7 West Coast 7.0 +15000 None 0.32%
SMU 19-9 AAC 4.5 +15000 None 0.32%
South Carolina 17-12 SEC 3.8 +15000 None 0.32%
Stephen F. Austin 26-3 Southland 10.9 +15000 None 0.32%
UNLV 17-14 MWC 2.0 +15000 None 0.32%
VCU 18-11 A-10 5.6 +15000 None 0.32%
Virginia Tech 15-14 ACC 2.1 +15000 None 0.32%
East Tennessee State 27-4 Southern 9.5 +25000 None 0.19%
Georgia Tech 15-14 ACC 1.3 +25000 None 0.19%
Mississippi State 19-10 SEC 5.3 +25000 None 0.19%
New Mexico State 24-6 WAC 8.3 +25000 None 0.19%
Notre Dame 18-11 ACC 5.6 +25000 None 0.19%
Pittsburgh 15-15 ACC -0.5 +25000 None 0.19%
Richmond 22-7 A-10 8.5 +8000 +17000 0.59%
Temple 14-15 AAC 0.4 +25000 None 0.19%
Tulsa 20-9 AAC 4.3 +25000 None 0.19%
Boston College 13-16 ACC -6.0 +50000 None 0.10%
UMBC 14-16 America East -3.7 +50000 None 0.10%
Vermont 23-7 America East 10.9 +50000 None 0.10%
Winthrop 21-10 Big South 7.7 +50000 None 0.10%
Wright State 25-6 Horizon 8.7 +50000 None 0.10%

Included in the table below are the regular season records for each team last year, their conference, Power Index (average margin of victory last season), current odds, change in the odds since last week’s update, and the normalized implied probability to win the NCAA Tournament based on the current market odds.

We’ve included the probability for each team to win the tournament based on the odds and the field listed (NCAA Tournament column).  It is sometimes easier to grasp what the odds are trying to say when thinking in terms of percentage probability versus how much a $100 bet would payout (e.g. +500 means a $100 bet would pay out $500).  The change column shows how much the odds have improved or decreased for that team since our last update.  If a team is “New” this means they were not listed as of our previous update.  Our Power Index is the approximate number of points a team would be favored by on a neutral court against an average college basketball team.

Be sure to check out the daily college basketball odds each night of the season to see if there is any value with these teams or others.

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