Odds to Win the 2018 Men’s NCAA Basketball Tournament & Final Four

College basketball futures tend to be even more unpredictable than futures in most other sports.  You have a huge field of potential teams to start with.  With just five starters and thirteen players in total on each team, there is potential there for one or two excellent players to overcome a team that has better talent overall.  College basketball teams are also notoriously streaky with regards to shooting, so if a team gets hot or cold at the right time their fortunes can change on a dime.  This is nowhere more apparent than the NCAA Tournament, where top teams often fall in the early rounds to smaller schools.

The table below lists the top teams according to the odds at 5Dimes sportsbook.  We recommend 5Dimes for basketball betting because they offer reduced juice, giving you an edge you aren’t likely to find anywhere else.

We’ve also included the probability for each team to win the tournament based on the odds and the field listed (NCAA Tournament column).  It is sometimes easier to grasp what the odds are trying to say when thinking in terms of percentage probability versus how much a $100 bet would payout (e.g. +500 means a $100 bet would pay out $500).  The change column shows how much the odds have improved or decreased for that team since our last update.  If a team is “New” this means they were not listed as of our previous update.  Our Power Index is the approximate number of points a team would be favored by on a neutral court against an average college basketball team.

Vegas Betting Favorites to Win the Final Four & 2018 NCAA Tournament (Updated for the Sweet 16)

Wow, what a tournament we’ve seen so far!  Duke is the current favorite to win the tournament, while both Gonzaga and Kentucky have seen their odds improve significantly due to how the rest of their region has played out to date.  Looking for a Cinderella Story?  Syracuse and Loyola-Chicago each have the worst odds to win the tournament at about 100 to 1.

2018 March Madness Sweet 16 & Final Four Futures Odds

Team Record Conference Power Index Odds Change NCAA Tournament
Duke 28-7 ACC 15.6 +375 +425 18.71%
Villanova 32-4 Big East 16.6 +400 +150 17.78%
Gonzaga 32-4 West Coast 16.7 +750 +1150 10.46%
Kentucky 26-10 SEC 6.8 +750 +2550 10.46%
Kansas 29-7 Big 12 10.5 +825 +625 9.61%
Michigan 30-7 Big Ten 10.0 +1200 +500 6.84%
Purdue 30-6 Big Ten 15.4 +1400 -50 5.93%
West Virginia 26-10 Big 12 11.1 +1500 +1800 5.55%
Texas Tech 26-9 Big 12 10.3 +2500 None 3.42%
Texas A&M 22-12 SEC 5.6 +2500 +20500 3.42%
Clemson 25-9 ACC 8.3 +3300 +16700 2.61%
Kansas State 24-11 Big 12 4.7 +6600 +53400 1.33%
Florida State 22-11 ACC 7.4 +7700 +24800 1.14%
Nevada 29-7 MWC 9.8 +8800 +29200 1.00%
Syracuse 23-13 ACC 3.1 +10000 +65000 0.88%
Loyola Chicago 30-5 MVC 9.2 +10000 +50000 0.88%

My Predictions: Futures Bets to Capture the 2017-2018 NCAA Basketball Championship

Top Value Bet: Kentucky +750, Kansas +825

Of the remaining teams, I believe Kentucky and Kansas have the best value to win the tournament based on talent and their remaining opponents.

Be sure to check out the daily college basketball odds each night of the season to see if there is any value with these teams or others.

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