Odds to Win the 2021 Men’s NCAA Basketball Tournament & Final Four

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College basketball futures tend to be even more unpredictable than futures in most other sports.  You have a huge field of potential teams to start with.  With just five starters and thirteen players in total on each team, there is potential there for one or two excellent players to overcome a team that has better talent overall.  College basketball teams are also notoriously streaky with regards to shooting, so if a team gets hot or cold at the right time their fortunes can change on a dime.  This is nowhere more apparent than the NCAA Tournament, where top teams often fall in the early rounds to smaller schools.

The table below lists the top teams according to the odds at BetOnline sportsbook.

Vegas Betting Favorites to Win the Final Four & 2021 NCAA Tournament

Here’s a look at the projected Final 4 and championship matchups and winner based on current market odds.

2021 March Madness Futures Odds

Projected Final Four: Gonzaga, Baylor, Iowa, Illinois

Projected Championship Matchup: Gonzaga vs Baylor

Projected NCAA Tournament Champions: Gonzaga

Team 2019-20 Record Conference Scoring Margin Odds Change NCAA Tournament
Gonzaga 3-0 West Coast 13.3 +400 +500 9.86%
Baylor 4-0 Big 12 27.0 +850 +50 5.19%
Iowa 6-0 Big Ten 32.0 +900 -150 4.93%
Illinois 5-2 Big Ten 21.3 +1000 +400 4.48%
Villanova 5-1 Big East 10.2 +1200 -500 3.79%
West Virginia 6-1 Big 12 8.3 +1600 None 2.90%
Kansas 6-1 Big 12 10.5 +1800 -600 2.59%
Michigan State 6-0 Big Ten 12.5 +1800 -200 2.59%
Texas Tech 6-1 Big 12 23.7 +1800 +400 2.59%
Virginia 3-1 ACC 16.5 +1800 -600 2.59%
Creighton 4-2 Big East 15.2 +2000 -200 2.35%
Tennessee 3-0 SEC 19.7 +2000 +200 2.35%
Texas 5-1 Big 12 13.2 +2000 +4000 2.35%
Duke 2-2 ACC 2.8 +2500 -1100 1.90%
Florida State 4-0 ACC 13.8 +2500 -700 1.90%
Houston 4-0 AAC 18.8 +2500 +1000 1.90%
Indiana 4-2 Big Ten 13.0 +2800 +1200 1.70%
Kentucky 1-4 SEC 0.6 +2800 -1700 1.70%
North Carolina 4-2 ACC 6.8 +2800 -1000 1.70%
Wisconsin 5-1 Big Ten 17.8 +2800 -1200 1.70%
Ohio State 5-0 Big Ten 16.2 +3300 -300 1.45%
San Diego State 5-0 MWC 12.8 +3300 -1300 1.45%
Arizona State 4-2 Pac-12 2.8 +4000 None 1.20%
Connecticut 3-0 AAC 14.0 +4000 +1000 1.20%
Florida 3-1 SEC 15.2 +4000 -1000 1.20%
LSU 4-1 SEC 23.0 +4000 None 1.20%
Michigan 6-0 Big Ten 14.8 +4000 -1500 1.20%
Oregon 4-1 Pac-12 9.2 +4000 -1200 1.20%
Alabama 4-2 SEC 5.0 +5000 New 0.97%
Arizona 5-0 Pac-12 19.6 +5000 None 0.97%
Arkansas 6-0 SEC 33.8 +5000 +3000 0.97%
Louisville 4-0 ACC 19.8 +5000 -1700 0.97%
Richmond 4-1 A-10 5.8 +5000 +3000 0.97%
St. Louis 5-0 A-10 27.2 +5000 New 0.97%
UCLA 5-1 Pac-12 12.7 +5000 -2000 0.97%
Maryland 4-2 Big Ten 11.5 +6600 -1600 0.74%
Purdue 4-2 Big Ten 10.0 +6600 +1400 0.74%
Rutgers 5-0 Big Ten 16.4 +6600 -600 0.74%
SMU 4-0 AAC 24.0 +6600 +8400 0.74%
Stanford 3-2 Pac-12 8.2 +6600 -1600 0.74%
USC 4-1 Pac-12 16.0 +6600 -600 0.74%
Auburn 4-2 SEC 0.5 +8000 -4000 0.61%
Clemson 5-1 ACC 12.8 +8000 New 0.61%
Colorado 3-1 Pac-12 17.0 +8000 +2000 0.61%
Dayton 3-1 A-10 2.5 +8000 None 0.61%
Memphis 4-3 AAC 11.4 +8000 -500 0.61%
Minnesota 6-1 Big Ten 9.1 +8000 +2000 0.61%
Xavier 7-0 Big East 17.1 +8000 New 0.61%
Butler 1-0 Big East 4.0 +10000 None 0.49%
BYU 6-2 West Coast 6.3 +10000 -2000 0.49%
Marquette 5-2 Big East 10.1 +10000 None 0.49%
Miami FL 3-1 ACC 10.0 +10000 -2000 0.49%
Missouri 5-0 SEC 11.4 +10000 New 0.49%
NC State 3-0 ACC 33.3 +10000 New 0.49%
Northern Iowa 1-4 MVC -7.2 +10000 New 0.49%
Oklahoma 3-1 Big 12 13.0 +10000 None 0.49%
Penn State 3-2 Big Ten 6.8 +10000 None 0.49%
Providence 4-2 Big East 4.2 +10000 New 0.49%
South Carolina 1-2 SEC -5.0 +10000 +5000 0.49%
Syracuse 4-1 ACC 18.8 +10000 +2500 0.49%
VCU 6-2 A-10 14.2 +10000 +5000 0.49%
Virginia Tech 5-1 ACC 5.7 +10000 +5000 0.49%
Western Kentucky 5-2 C-USA 2.4 +10000 New 0.49%
Boise State 4-1 MWC 9.0 +12500 New 0.39%
Cincinnati 2-2 AAC 0.0 +12500 +7500 0.39%
Georgia Tech 2-3 ACC 0.4 +12500 +12500 0.39%
Notre Dame 2-2 ACC -1.5 +12500 +12500 0.39%
Pittsburgh 4-1 ACC 9.4 +12500 +12500 0.39%
Seton Hall 4-3 Big East 6.1 +12500 -9200 0.39%
St. Mary’s CA 7-1 West Coast 10.6 +12500 New 0.39%
Temple 0-0 AAC +12500 +12500 0.39%
UNLV 1-4 MWC -9.2 +12500 +2500 0.39%
Washington 1-4 Pac-12 -6.8 +12500 New 0.39%
Wichita State 2-2 AAC -1.0 +12500 New 0.39%
Utah 3-1 Pac-12 5.0 +15000 New 0.33%
Utah State 2-3 MWC -8.0 +15000 New 0.33%
Georgetown 3-3 Big East 2.3 +20000 -5000 0.25%
Mississippi State 3-3 SEC 3.5 +20000 +5000 0.25%
Rhode Island 3-4 A-10 2.4 +20000 -5000 0.25%
Davidson 3-3 A-10 5.2 +25000 -10000 0.20%
DePaul 0-0 Big East +25000 New 0.20%

Included in the table below are the regular season records for each team last year, their conference, Power Index (average margin of victory last season), current odds, change in the odds since last week’s update, and the normalized implied probability to win the NCAA Tournament based on the current market odds.

We’ve included the probability for each team to win the tournament based on the odds and the field listed (NCAA Tournament column).  It is sometimes easier to grasp what the odds are trying to say when thinking in terms of percentage probability versus how much a $100 bet would payout (e.g. +500 means a $100 bet would pay out $500).  The change column shows how much the odds have improved or decreased for that team since our last update.  If a team is “New” this means they were not listed as of our previous update.  Our Power Index is the approximate number of points a team would be favored by on a neutral court against an average college basketball team.

Be sure to check out the daily college basketball odds each night of the season to see if there is any value with these teams or others.

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