Odds to Win the 2019 Men’s NCAA Basketball Tournament & Final Four


College basketball futures tend to be even more unpredictable than futures in most other sports.  You have a huge field of potential teams to start with.  With just five starters and thirteen players in total on each team, there is potential there for one or two excellent players to overcome a team that has better talent overall.  College basketball teams are also notoriously streaky with regards to shooting, so if a team gets hot or cold at the right time their fortunes can change on a dime.  This is nowhere more apparent than the NCAA Tournament, where top teams often fall in the early rounds to smaller schools.

The table below lists the top teams according to the odds at BetOnline sportsbook.

Vegas Betting Favorites to Win the Final Four & 2020 NCAA Tournament (Updated for Next Year)

Virginia captured the 2019 NCAA Tournament Championship with an overtime victory over Texas Tech. The Cavs had one of the most improbable runs through the bracket in recent memory and are currently listed behind both Kentucky and Duke as far as probability to win it all in 2020.

You will also see the odds for plenty of familiar teams near the top of the list. Michigan, Michigan State, North Carolina, Gonzaga, Villanova, and Kansas are all expected to be contenders again next season.

There is still a lot we don’t know about most of these teams given that the 2018-19 season just ended. Be sure to check back throughout the offseason and again once next season gets started to see how these odds are adjusted.

2020 March Madness Futures Odds

Projected Final Four: Kentucky, Duke, Virginia, Michigan State

Projected Championship Matchup: Kentucky vs Duke

Projected NCAA Tournament Champions: Kentucky

Team 2018-19 Record Conference Scoring Margin Odds Change NCAA Tournament
Kentucky 30-7 SEC 11.1 +500 New 13.91%
Duke 32-6 ACC 14.9 +600 New 11.92%
Virginia 35-3 ACC 15.3 +650 New 11.13%
Michigan State 32-7 Big Ten 12.6 +800 New 9.27%
Michigan 30-7 Big Ten 11.3 +1200 New 6.42%
North Carolina 29-7 ACC 12.6 +1200 New 6.42%
Gonzaga 33-4 West Coast 22.8 +1400 New 5.56%
Villanova 26-10 Big East 6.4 +1600 New 4.91%
Kansas 26-10 Big 12 5.6 +2000 New 3.97%
Oregon 25-13 Pac-12 7.8 +2200 New 3.63%
Arizona 17-15 Pac-12 2.0 +2500 New 3.21%
Louisville 20-14 ACC 6.2 +2500 New 3.21%
Auburn 30-10 SEC 9.9 +3300 New 2.45%
Mississippi State 23-11 SEC 6.9 +3300 New 2.45%
Tennessee 31-6 SEC 11.4 +3300 New 2.45%
Texas 21-16 Big 12 4.6 +3300 New 2.45%
Texas Tech 31-7 Big 12 13.3 +3300 New 2.45%
Florida State 29-8 ACC 7.7 +6600 New 1.25%
Wisconsin 23-11 Big Ten 6.9 +6600 New 1.25%
UCLA 17-16 Pac-12 0.4 +10000 New 0.83%
USC 16-17 Pac-12 3.3 +10000 New 0.83%

Included in the table below are the regular season records for each team last year, their conference, Power Index (average margin of victory last season), current odds, change in the odds since last week’s update, and the normalized implied probability to win the NCAA Tournament based on the current market odds.

We’ve included the probability for each team to win the tournament based on the odds and the field listed (NCAA Tournament column).  It is sometimes easier to grasp what the odds are trying to say when thinking in terms of percentage probability versus how much a $100 bet would payout (e.g. +500 means a $100 bet would pay out $500).  The change column shows how much the odds have improved or decreased for that team since our last update.  If a team is “New” this means they were not listed as of our previous update.  Our Power Index is the approximate number of points a team would be favored by on a neutral court against an average college basketball team.

Be sure to check out the daily college basketball odds each night of the season to see if there is any value with these teams or others.

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