Odds to Win the 2019 Men’s NCAA Basketball Tournament & Final Four

College basketball futures tend to be even more unpredictable than futures in most other sports.  You have a huge field of potential teams to start with.  With just five starters and thirteen players in total on each team, there is potential there for one or two excellent players to overcome a team that has better talent overall.  College basketball teams are also notoriously streaky with regards to shooting, so if a team gets hot or cold at the right time their fortunes can change on a dime.  This is nowhere more apparent than the NCAA Tournament, where top teams often fall in the early rounds to smaller schools.

The table below lists the top teams according to the odds at 5Dimes sportsbook.  We recommend 5Dimes for basketball betting because they offer reduced juice, giving you an edge you aren’t likely to find anywhere else.

Vegas Betting Favorites to Win the Final Four & 2019 NCAA Tournament (Updated)

Villanova is the 2017-18 NCAA Tournament Champion in what was truly a dominating season.  The Wildcats lost just four games in the regular season (32-4) and made their bracket look easy, winning by an average of almost 19 point per game, including a 17-point win over Michigan in the championship.

Despite that dominance, Duke is currently listed as the favorite to take home the trophy next season.  Villanova is listed with the second-best odds (along with Kansas), but their future is a bit unknown with some key upperclassmen likely heading to the NBA Draft.  The rest of the teams at the top of the list should come as no surprise as they seem to be here every year:  Kentucky, North Carolina, Michigan State, Gonzaga, Virginia, and Michigan are all expected to compete for the title next season.  Check back closer to the start of the season to see how recruiting and player turnover impacts these odds.

2019 March Madness Futures Odds

Projected Final Four:  Duke, Villanova, Kansas, Kentucky

Included in the table below are the regular season records for each team last year, their conference, Power Index (average margin of victory last season), current odds, change in the odds from the last update, and the normalized implied probability to win the NCAA Tournament based on the current market odds.

TEAM 2017-18 Record Conference 2017 Power Index Odds Change NCAA Tournament
Duke 28-7 ACC 14.7 +600 None 8.41%
Kansas 29-7 Big 12 10.2 +700 +125 7.36%
Villanova 32-4 Big East 16.4 +700 None 7.36%
Kentucky 26-10 SEC 6.5 +900 +100 5.88%
Gonzaga 32-4 West Coast 15.8 +1000 +100 5.35%
North Carolina 26-11 ACC 8.3 +1200 None 4.53%
Nevada 29-7 MWC 9.5 +1250 +1750 4.36%
Virginia 31-3 ACC 13.1 +1500 None 3.68%
Michigan 30-7 Big Ten 10.3 +2500 None 2.26%
Michigan State 30-5 Big Ten 15.3 +2500 None 2.26%
Tennessee 26-9 SEC 8.1 +2800 +950 2.03%
Virginia Tech 21-12 ACC 7.6 +3000 None 1.90%
Auburn 26-8 SEC 8.7 +3000 +500 1.90%
Oregon 23-13 Pac-12 5.9 +3300 None 1.73%
West Virginia 26-10 Big 12 10.5 +3500 None 1.63%
UCLA 21-12 Pac-12 5.2 +4000 None 1.44%
Indiana 16-15 Big Ten 1.6 +4500 None 1.28%
Florida 21-13 SEC 6.6 +5000 None 1.15%
Wichita State 25-8 AAC 11.1 +5000 None 1.15%
Purdue 30-6 Big Ten 14.7 +5000 None 1.15%
Texas Tech 26-9 Big 12 9.8 +5000 None 1.15%
Cincinnati 31-5 AAC 16.7 +6500 None 0.89%
Syracuse 23-13 ACC 2.9 +6600 +1400 0.88%
Ohio State 25-9 Big Ten 8.6 +7000 None 0.83%
Vanderbilt 12-20 SEC -1.6 +7000 None 0.83%
Maryland 19-13 Big Ten 5.8 +7000 None 0.83%
Miami Florida 22-10 ACC 5.9 +7000 None 0.83%
NC State 21-12 ACC 6.2 +7000 None 0.83%
Clemson 25-9 ACC 7.9 +7000 None 0.83%
Arizona State 20-12 Pac-12 7.8 +7000 None 0.83%
LSU 18-15 SEC 2.9 +7350 None 0.79%
Louisville 22-13 ACC 5.2 +7500 None 0.77%
Mississippi State 24-11 SEC 5.5 +8000 None 0.73%
Florida State 22-11 ACC 7.3 +8200 None 0.71%
Penn State 23-13 Big Ten 7.6 +8250 None 0.70%
Wisconsin 15-18 Big Ten 0.9 +8750 +250 0.66%
Xavier 29-6 Big East 9.6 +9000 None 0.65%
TCU 21-12 Big 12 6.7 +9000 None 0.65%
Texas 19-15 Big 12 3.3 +9000 None 0.65%
Texas A&M 22-12 SEC 4.7 +9000 None 0.65%
St John’s 16-17 Big East -0.4 +9000 None 0.65%
Seton Hall 22-12 Big East 5.6 +9000 None 0.65%
Baylor 19-15 Big 12 5.4 +9000 None 0.65%
Butler 21-14 Big East 6.4 +9000 None 0.65%
Arizona 27-8 Pac-12 8.8 +10000 None 0.58%
Central Florida 19-13 AAC 1.0 +10000 None 0.58%
Kansas State 24-11 Big 12 4.1 +10000 +2500 0.58%
Arkansas 23-12 SEC 4.9 +12000 None 0.49%
Iowa State 13-18 Big 12 -2.6 +17500 +5000 0.33%
Notre Dame 21-15 ACC 5.7 +18500 None 0.32%
Missouri 20-13 SEC 4.6 +20000 +2500 0.29%
Washington 21-13 Pac-12 1.6 +20000 None 0.29%
Alabama 20-16 SEC 1.7 +20500 None 0.29%
Creighton 21-12 Big East 8.2 +22500 None 0.26%
USC 24-12 Pac-12 6.5 +22500 None 0.26%
Utah 21-11 Pac-12 5.6 +22500 None 0.26%
SMU 17-16 AAC 5.4 +22500 None 0.26%
South Carolina 17-16 SEC 0.2 +22500 None 0.26%
Stanford 19-16 Pac-12 0.9 +22500 None 0.26%
Oklahoma 18-14 Big 12 3.2 +22500 None 0.26%
Providence 21-14 Big East 0.9 +22500 None 0.26%
Rhode Island 26-8 A-10 7.2 +22500 None 0.26%
Saint Mary’s 30-5 West Coast 12.5 +22500 None 0.26%
San Diego State 22-11 MWC 8.3 +22500 None 0.26%
Minnesota 15-17 Big Ten 0.1 +22500 None 0.26%
Memphis 21-13 AAC -0.4 +22500 None 0.26%
Marquette 21-13 Big East 2.8 +22500 None 0.26%
Illinois 14-18 Big Ten 1.0 +22500 None 0.26%

We’ve included the probability for each team to win the tournament based on the odds and the field listed (NCAA Tournament column).  It is sometimes easier to grasp what the odds are trying to say when thinking in terms of percentage probability versus how much a $100 bet would payout (e.g. +500 means a $100 bet would pay out $500).  The change column shows how much the odds have improved or decreased for that team since our last update.  If a team is “New” this means they were not listed as of our previous update.  Our Power Index is the approximate number of points a team would be favored by on a neutral court against an average college basketball team.

Be sure to check out the daily college basketball odds each night of the season to see if there is any value with these teams or others.

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