College basketball futures tend to be even more unpredictable than futures in most other sports. You have a huge field of potential teams to start with. With just five starters and thirteen players in total on each team, there is potential there for one or two excellent players to overcome a team that has better talent overall. College basketball teams are also notoriously streaky with regards to shooting, so if a team gets hot or cold at the right time their fortunes can change on a dime. This is nowhere more apparent than the NCAA Tournament, where top teams often fall in the early rounds to smaller schools.
The table below lists the top teams according to the odds at BetOnline sportsbook.
Virginia captured the 2019 NCAA Tournament Championship with an overtime victory over Texas Tech. The Cavs had one of the most improbable runs through the bracket in recent memory and are currently listed behind both Kentucky and Duke as far as probability to win it all in 2020.
You will also see the odds for plenty of familiar teams near the top of the list. Michigan, Michigan State, North Carolina, Gonzaga, Villanova, and Kansas are all expected to be contenders again next season.
There is still a lot we don’t know about most of these teams given that the 2018-19 season just ended. Be sure to check back throughout the offseason and again once next season gets started to see how these odds are adjusted.
Projected Final Four: Kentucky, Duke, Virginia, Michigan State
Projected Championship Matchup: Kentucky vs Duke
Projected NCAA Tournament Champions: Kentucky
|Team||2018-19 Record||Conference||Scoring Margin||Odds||Change||NCAA Tournament|
|Michigan State||32-7||Big Ten||12.6||+800||New||9.27%|
|Texas Tech||31-7||Big 12||13.3||+3300||New||2.45%|
Included in the table below are the regular season records for each team last year, their conference, Power Index (average margin of victory last season), current odds, change in the odds since last week’s update, and the normalized implied probability to win the NCAA Tournament based on the current market odds.
We’ve included the probability for each team to win the tournament based on the odds and the field listed (NCAA Tournament column). It is sometimes easier to grasp what the odds are trying to say when thinking in terms of percentage probability versus how much a $100 bet would payout (e.g. +500 means a $100 bet would pay out $500). The change column shows how much the odds have improved or decreased for that team since our last update. If a team is “New” this means they were not listed as of our previous update. Our Power Index is the approximate number of points a team would be favored by on a neutral court against an average college basketball team.
Be sure to check out the daily college basketball odds each night of the season to see if there is any value with these teams or others.