Odds to Win the 2019 Men’s NCAA Basketball Tournament & Final Four

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College basketball futures tend to be even more unpredictable than futures in most other sports.  You have a huge field of potential teams to start with.  With just five starters and thirteen players in total on each team, there is potential there for one or two excellent players to overcome a team that has better talent overall.  College basketball teams are also notoriously streaky with regards to shooting, so if a team gets hot or cold at the right time their fortunes can change on a dime.  This is nowhere more apparent than the NCAA Tournament, where top teams often fall in the early rounds to smaller schools.

The table below lists the top teams according to the odds at BetOnline sportsbook.

Vegas Betting Favorites to Win the Final Four & 2020 NCAA Tournament

It’s still early in the season, but the odds now showing a clear projected Final Four in Kansas, Michigan State, Duke, and Gonzaga. These are of course likely to change, but as of now this is what the market is telling us.

Here’s a look at the projected Final 4 and championship matchups and winner based on current market odds.

2020 March Madness Futures Odds

Projected Final Four: Kansas, Michigan State, Duke, Gonzaga

Projected Championship Matchup: Kansas vs Michigan State

Projected NCAA Tournament Champions: Kansas/Michigan State [tie]

Team 2019-20 Record Conference Scoring Margin Odds Change NCAA Tournament
Kansas 11-2 Big 12 16.8 +900 +300 5.34%
Michigan State 12-3 Big Ten 17.7 +900 +300 5.34%
Duke 13-1 ACC 21.7 +1000 None 4.85%
Gonzaga 16-1 West Coast 18.9 +1000 +200 4.85%
Louisville 12-3 ACC 14.3 +1200 -200 4.11%
Ohio State 11-4 Big Ten 15.8 +1200 -200 4.11%
Kentucky 11-3 SEC 12.5 +1400 +200 3.56%
Maryland 13-2 Big Ten 13.5 +1400 +200 3.56%
Baylor 12-1 Big 12 15.8 +1600 +400 3.14%
Oregon 12-3 Pac-12 12.1 +1600 None 3.14%
Florida 10-4 SEC 8.4 +2000 None 2.54%
Michigan 10-4 Big Ten 10.9 +2000 -400 2.54%
Colorado 12-3 Pac-12 9.8 +2500 +800 2.05%
Dayton 13-2 A-10 17.8 +2500 +800 2.05%
North Carolina 8-6 ACC 0.7 +2500 None 2.05%
San Diego State 15-0 MWC 17.1 +2500 New 2.05%
Arizona 11-3 Pac-12 19.1 +3300 None 1.57%
Auburn 13-0 SEC 16.2 +3300 None 1.57%
Butler 14-1 Big East 14.6 +3300 +700 1.57%
Florida State 13-2 ACC 13.1 +3300 +1700 1.57%
Memphis 12-2 AAC 17.0 +3300 None 1.57%
Seton Hall 10-4 Big East 10.7 +3300 None 1.57%
Texas 10-3 Big 12 6.4 +3300 None 1.57%
Texas Tech 10-4 Big 12 13.2 +3300 -500 1.57%
Villanova 11-3 Big East 8.0 +3300 None 1.57%
Virginia 11-3 ACC 8.1 +3300 -800 1.57%
Tennessee 9-5 SEC 7.5 +4000 None 1.30%
Utah State 13-5 MWC 8.8 +4000 None 1.30%
Washington 11-4 Pac-12 10.5 +4000 None 1.30%
West Virginia 12-2 Big 12 11.5 +4000 +2600 1.30%
Cincinnati 8-6 AAC 4.9 +5000 None 1.05%
Marquette 11-4 Big East 10.1 +5000 None 1.05%
Purdue 9-6 Big Ten 9.1 +5000 None 1.05%
Wichita State 13-1 AAC 14.8 +5000 +3000 1.05%
Xavier 12-3 Big East 8.6 +5000 None 1.05%
Connecticut 9-5 AAC 8.4 +6600 None 0.80%
Houston 12-3 AAC 11.4 +6600 +1400 0.80%
Saint Mary’s 14-3 West Coast 10.9 +6600 None 0.80%
Wisconsin 9-5 Big Ten 8.2 +6600 +3400 0.80%
Alabama 7-6 SEC 4.2 +8000 None 0.66%
Georgia 10-4 SEC 6.9 +8000 +2000 0.66%
Indiana 11-3 Big Ten 10.3 +8000 None 0.66%
LSU 9-4 SEC 13.4 +8000 None 0.66%
Arizona State 9-5 Pac-12 4.8 +10000 None 0.53%
Arkansas 12-1 SEC 14.5 +10000 None 0.53%
Creighton 12-4 Big East 6.9 +10000 -5000 0.53%
Illinois 10-5 Big Ten 9.9 +10000 None 0.53%
Iowa 10-5 Big Ten 9.7 +10000 None 0.53%
Penn State 12-3 Big Ten 12.0 +10000 +5000 0.53%
St. John’s 11-4 Big East 10.6 +10000 -3400 0.53%
Stephen F. Austin 13-2 Southland 10.5 +10000 None 0.53%
Utah 10-4 Pac-12 9.0 +10000 None 0.53%
VCU 12-3 A-10 11.3 +10000 None 0.53%
Mississippi 9-5 SEC 4.3 +15000 None 0.35%
Mississippi State 9-4 SEC 8.2 +15000 None 0.35%
Oklahoma 10-3 Big 12 5.5 +15000 None 0.35%
Oklahoma State 9-5 Big 12 5.2 +15000 -5000 0.35%
Pittsburgh 10-4 ACC 5.9 +15000 None 0.35%
Rutgers 12-3 Big Ten 11.6 +15000 +10000 0.35%
South Carolina 8-6 SEC 3.4 +15000 None 0.35%
Syracuse 8-7 ACC 6.8 +15000 None 0.35%
UCLA 8-7 Pac-12 2.1 +15000 None 0.35%
USC 12-3 Pac-12 4.7 +15000 None 0.35%
Virginia Tech 11-4 ACC 9.9 +15000 None 0.35%
NC State 10-4 ACC 9.6 +20000 New 0.27%
Clemson 7-7 ACC 5.1 +25000 None 0.21%
Davidson 6-7 A-10 3.5 +25000 None 0.21%
DePaul 12-3 Big East 8.1 +25000 None 0.21%
Evansville 9-6 MVC -1.6 +25000 None 0.21%
Georgetown 10-5 Big East 6.5 +25000 None 0.21%
Georgia Tech 7-7 ACC -0.4 +25000 None 0.21%
Iowa State 7-6 Big 12 8.8 +25000 None 0.21%
Kansas State 7-7 Big 12 5.1 +25000 None 0.21%
Notre Dame 10-4 ACC 11.1 +25000 None 0.21%
Providence 10-6 Big East 6.9 +25000 None 0.21%
Richmond 12-3 A-10 9.0 +25000 None 0.21%
SMU 11-2 AAC 10.8 +25000 None 0.21%
Stanford 12-2 Pac-12 13.7 +25000 None 0.21%
Temple 9-5 AAC 6.5 +25000 None 0.21%
Boston College 9-6 ACC -0.3 +50000 None 0.11%
California 6-8 Pac-12 -4.8 +50000 None 0.11%
Liberty 16-1 Big South 13.2 +50000 None 0.11%

Included in the table below are the regular season records for each team last year, their conference, Power Index (average margin of victory last season), current odds, change in the odds since last week’s update, and the normalized implied probability to win the NCAA Tournament based on the current market odds.

We’ve included the probability for each team to win the tournament based on the odds and the field listed (NCAA Tournament column).  It is sometimes easier to grasp what the odds are trying to say when thinking in terms of percentage probability versus how much a $100 bet would payout (e.g. +500 means a $100 bet would pay out $500).  The change column shows how much the odds have improved or decreased for that team since our last update.  If a team is “New” this means they were not listed as of our previous update.  Our Power Index is the approximate number of points a team would be favored by on a neutral court against an average college basketball team.

Be sure to check out the daily college basketball odds each night of the season to see if there is any value with these teams or others.

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