Odds to Win the 2019 Men’s NCAA Basketball Tournament & Final Four

College basketball futures tend to be even more unpredictable than futures in most other sports.  You have a huge field of potential teams to start with.  With just five starters and thirteen players in total on each team, there is potential there for one or two excellent players to overcome a team that has better talent overall.  College basketball teams are also notoriously streaky with regards to shooting, so if a team gets hot or cold at the right time their fortunes can change on a dime.  This is nowhere more apparent than the NCAA Tournament, where top teams often fall in the early rounds to smaller schools.

The table below lists the top teams according to the odds at 5Dimes sportsbook.  We recommend 5Dimes for basketball betting because they offer reduced juice, giving you an edge you aren’t likely to find anywhere else.

Vegas Betting Favorites to Win the Final Four & 2019 NCAA Tournament (Updated)

Villanova is the 2017-18 NCAA Tournament Champion in what was truly a dominating season.  The Wildcats lost just four games in the regular season (32-4) and made their bracket look easy, winning by an average of almost 19 point per game, including a 17-point win over Michigan in the championship.

Despite that dominance, Duke and Kentucky are now listed as the favorites to win this year’s NCAA Tournament.  Villanova currently sits at +12225, which may have some value considering how well this team seems to reload and win season after season. The Wildcats definitely lost some talent, but it would be surprising if they weren’t serious contenders for the title again.

You will find many familiar names near the top of the list including perennial powerhouses like Kansas, North Carolina, and Virginia. The team I did not expect to find near the top of the odds is Nevada – currently listed ahead of Villanova. The Wolf Pack went 29-8 last season (15-3 in conference play) and ended up losing in the Sweet Sixteen to Loyola-Chicago. This team has a lot of talent returning, including three all-conference starters, however, with the number of quality teams required to beat to win the tournament, it’s a tall order for them to advance more than a round or two in this year’s tournament. I would be surprised if they remained near the top for the entire season, but we will see how it plays out.

2019 March Madness Futures Odds

Projected Final Four:  Duke, Kansas, Gonzaga, Kentucky

Team 2017-18 Record Conference Scoring Margin Odds Change NCAA Tournament
Duke 28-7 ACC 34.0 +295 None 17.37%
Kentucky 26-10 SEC -34.0 +715 None 8.42%
Kansas 29-7 Big 12 5.0 +715 None 8.42%
Gonzaga 32-4 West Coast 41.0 +1025 None 6.10%
North Carolina 26-11 ACC 11.0 +1025 None 6.10%
Nevada 29-7 MWC 16.0 +1225 None 5.18%
Virginia 31-3 ACC 31.0 +1225 None 5.18%
Villanova 32-4 Big East 23.0 +1550 None 4.16%
Tennessee 26-9 SEC +2500 None 2.64%
Oregon 23-13 Pac-12 27.0 +3000 None 2.21%
Michigan State 30-5 Big Ten -5.0 +3500 None 1.91%
Indiana 16-15 Big Ten 49.0 +4000 None 1.67%
UCLA 21-12 Pac-12 25.0 +4000 None 1.67%
Wichita State 25-8 AAC -13.0 +4500 None 1.49%
West Virginia 26-10 Big 12 +5000 None 1.35%
Syracuse 23-13 ACC 32.0 +5000 None 1.35%
Florida 21-13 SEC -21.0 +5000 None 1.35%
Michigan 30-7 Big Ten 19.0 +5000 None 1.35%
Auburn 26-8 SEC 43.0 +5000 None 1.35%
Cincinnati 31-5 AAC +8000 None 0.85%
Florida State 22-11 ACC 21.0 +8000 None 0.85%
Purdue 30-6 Big Ten 33.0 +8000 None 0.85%
Virginia Tech 21-12 ACC +8000 None 0.85%
Wisconsin 15-18 Big Ten 22.0 +10000 None 0.68%
Mississippi State 24-11 SEC +12000 None 0.57%
NC State 21-12 ACC 50.0 +12500 None 0.54%
Notre Dame 21-15 ACC 17.0 +12500 None 0.54%
Maryland 19-13 Big Ten 6.0 +12500 None 0.54%
Miami Florida 22-10 ACC +12500 None 0.54%
LSU 18-15 SEC 31.0 +12500 None 0.54%
Iowa State 13-18 Big 12 26.0 +12500 None 0.54%
Clemson 25-9 ACC 20.0 +12500 None 0.54%
Arizona State 20-12 Pac-12 8.0 +12500 None 0.54%
Alabama 20-16 SEC 20.0 +12500 None 0.54%
Texas Tech 26-9 Big 12 50.0 +12500 None 0.54%
Ohio State 25-9 Big Ten +12500 None 0.54%
Penn State 23-13 Big Ten +12500 None 0.54%
TCU 21-12 Big 12 +12500 None 0.54%
Texas 19-15 Big 12 12.0 +12500 None 0.54%
St John’s 16-17 Big East 21.0 +12500 None 0.54%
Seton Hall 22-12 Big East 40.0 +20000 None 0.34%
SMU 17-16 AAC +20000 None 0.34%
Saint Louis 17-16 A-10 10.0 +20000 None 0.34%
Xavier 29-6 Big East 13.0 +20000 None 0.34%
USC 24-12 Pac-12 21.0 +20000 None 0.34%
Vanderbilt 12-20 SEC 13.0 +20000 None 0.34%
Washington 21-13 Pac-12 18.0 +20000 None 0.34%
Western Kentucky 26-10 C-USA -18.0 +20000 None 0.34%
Arizona 27-8 Pac-12 +20000 None 0.34%
Central Florida 19-13 AAC 14.0 +20000 None 0.34%
Butler 21-14 Big East +20000 None 0.34%
Louisville 22-13 ACC +20000 None 0.34%
Memphis 21-13 AAC 15.0 +20000 None 0.34%
Missouri State 18-15 MVC 34.0 +20000 None 0.34%
Nebraska 22-11 Big Ten 69.0 +20000 None 0.34%
Houston 27-8 AAC +20000 None 0.34%
Illinois 14-18 Big Ten +30000 None 0.23%
Illinois State 18-15 MVC 8.0 +30000 None 0.23%
Iowa 14-19 Big Ten +30000 None 0.23%
Georgetown 15-15 Big East 15.0 +30000 None 0.23%
Davidson 21-12 A-10 20.0 +30000 None 0.23%
Missouri 20-13 SEC 13.0 +30000 None 0.23%
Minnesota 15-17 Big Ten 28.0 +30000 None 0.23%
Loyola Chicago 30-5 MVC 31.0 +30000 None 0.23%
BYU 24-11 West Coast -16.0 +30000 None 0.23%
Colorado 17-15 Pac-12 +30000 None 0.23%
Creighton 21-12 Big East 11.0 +30000 None 0.23%

Included in the table below are the regular season records for each team last year, their conference, Power Index (average margin of victory last season), current odds, change in the odds since last week’s update, and the normalized implied probability to win the NCAA Tournament based on the current market odds.

We’ve included the probability for each team to win the tournament based on the odds and the field listed (NCAA Tournament column).  It is sometimes easier to grasp what the odds are trying to say when thinking in terms of percentage probability versus how much a $100 bet would payout (e.g. +500 means a $100 bet would pay out $500).  The change column shows how much the odds have improved or decreased for that team since our last update.  If a team is “New” this means they were not listed as of our previous update.  Our Power Index is the approximate number of points a team would be favored by on a neutral court against an average college basketball team.

Be sure to check out the daily college basketball odds each night of the season to see if there is any value with these teams or others.

Read More Like This