Odds to Win the 2019 Men’s NCAA Basketball Tournament & Final Four

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College basketball futures tend to be even more unpredictable than futures in most other sports.  You have a huge field of potential teams to start with.  With just five starters and thirteen players in total on each team, there is potential there for one or two excellent players to overcome a team that has better talent overall.  College basketball teams are also notoriously streaky with regards to shooting, so if a team gets hot or cold at the right time their fortunes can change on a dime.  This is nowhere more apparent than the NCAA Tournament, where top teams often fall in the early rounds to smaller schools.

The table below lists the top teams according to the odds at BetOnline sportsbook.

Vegas Betting Favorites to Win the Final Four & 2020 NCAA Tournament

It’s still super early in the season, but the Michigan State Spartans are currently the favorites to win the 2020 Final Four. Near the top of the market you’ll see plenty of familiar names including Kentucky, Duke, and Kansas, who always seem to be in the discussion for the title.  These odds are sure to shake up once we get into conference play and we start seeing how good some of these teams really are.

Here’s a look at the projected Final 4 and championship matchups and winner based on current market odds.

2020 March Madness Futures Odds

Projected Final Four: Michigan State, Kentucky, Duke, Kansas

Projected Championship Matchup: Michigan State vs Kentucky

Projected NCAA Tournament Champions: Michigan State

Team 2019-20 Record Conference Scoring Margin Odds Change NCAA Tournament
Michigan State 1-1 Big Ten 23.0 +700 +100 8.32%
Kentucky 2-0 SEC 24.5 +800 -300 7.40%
Duke 2-0 ACC 18.0 +1000 -400 6.05%
Kansas 1-1 Big 12 5.0 +1200 +800 5.12%
Louisville 2-0 ACC 18.0 +1400 +1100 4.44%
Memphis 2-0 AAC 39.5 +1400 New 4.44%
Florida 1-1 SEC 1.5 +1600 New 3.92%
North Carolina 2-0 ACC 13.5 +1600 -400 3.92%
Gonzaga 2-0 West Coast 40.5 +2000 -600 3.17%
Villanova 1-0 Big East 43.0 +2000 -400 3.17%
Virginia 2-0 ACC 22.5 +2000 -1350 3.17%
Texas Tech 2-0 Big 12 30.0 +2500 +800 2.56%
Maryland 2-0 Big Ten 21.0 +2800 New 2.30%
Oregon 2-0 Pac-12 22.5 +2800 -600 2.30%
Arizona 2-0 Pac-12 30.0 +3300 -800 1.96%
Auburn 2-0 SEC 9.5 +3300 None 1.96%
Michigan 1-0 Big Ten 8.0 +3300 -2100 1.96%
Ohio State 2-0 Big Ten 14.0 +3300 New 1.96%
Purdue 1-1 Big Ten 9.0 +3300 New 1.96%
Texas 2-0 Big 12 14.0 +3300 None 1.96%
Florida State 1-1 ACC 5.0 +4000 +2600 1.62%
Seton Hall 2-0 Big East 25.5 +4000 New 1.62%
Tennessee 1-0 SEC 15.0 +4000 -700 1.62%
Washington 1-0 Pac-12 3.0 +4000 New 1.62%
Baylor 1-1 Big 12 20.5 +5000 New 1.31%
Creighton 1-0 Big East 26.0 +5000 New 1.31%
Houston 0-0 AAC +5000 New 1.31%
Marquette 1-0 Big East 35.0 +5000 New 1.31%
Mississippi State 2-0 SEC 8.5 +5000 -1700 1.31%
Syracuse 0-1 ACC -14.0 +5000 New 1.31%
Xavier 2-0 Big East 18.5 +5000 New 1.31%
Alabama 1-1 SEC 9.0 +6600 New 0.99%
Cincinnati 1-1 AAC 7.0 +6600 New 0.99%
Colorado 1-0 Pac-12 10.0 +6600 New 0.99%
Iowa 1-1 Big Ten 6.0 +6600 New 0.99%
LSU 1-0 SEC 9.0 +6600 New 0.99%
Connecticut 1-0 AAC 22.0 +8000 New 0.82%
Wisconsin 1-1 Big Ten 5.5 +8000 -1400 0.82%
Arizona State 0-1 Pac-12 -10.0 +10000 New 0.66%
Georgia 1-0 SEC 19.0 +10000 New 0.66%
Indiana 2-0 Big Ten 22.0 +10000 New 0.66%
Mississippi 1-0 SEC 28.0 +10000 New 0.66%
Notre Dame 1-1 ACC 12.0 +10000 New 0.66%
UCLA 2-0 Pac-12 10.0 +10000 None 0.66%
USC 2-0 Pac-12 20.0 +10000 None 0.66%
Arkansas 1-0 SEC 48.0 +15000 New 0.44%
Georgetown 2-0 Big East 12.0 +15000 New 0.44%
San Diego State 2-0 MWC 20.0 +25000 New 0.27%

Included in the table below are the regular season records for each team last year, their conference, Power Index (average margin of victory last season), current odds, change in the odds since last week’s update, and the normalized implied probability to win the NCAA Tournament based on the current market odds.

We’ve included the probability for each team to win the tournament based on the odds and the field listed (NCAA Tournament column).  It is sometimes easier to grasp what the odds are trying to say when thinking in terms of percentage probability versus how much a $100 bet would payout (e.g. +500 means a $100 bet would pay out $500).  The change column shows how much the odds have improved or decreased for that team since our last update.  If a team is “New” this means they were not listed as of our previous update.  Our Power Index is the approximate number of points a team would be favored by on a neutral court against an average college basketball team.

Be sure to check out the daily college basketball odds each night of the season to see if there is any value with these teams or others.

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