Free Play on Dolphins -3½ -104
1* Free Play on Broncos vs Ravens under 43½ -109
This is a 1* Free Play on the Dallas Cowboys.
The Hawks are staring 0-3 in the face this Sunday and we think it’ll become a reality. Dallas finally found its footing in the second half of its 20-13 win over the Giants last Sunday night and we look for it to grind out a win here as well. Dallas’ QB Dak Prescott was 16 of 25 for 160 yards last week, along with another 45 yards rushing. The Dallas defense had six sacks of Eli Manning and now that aggressive unit faces the Seahawks suspect offensive line which has already given up 12 sacks this year (the most in the NFL.) Note that Dallas is 10-6 ATS its last 16 on the road, while Seattle is just 7-9 ATS in its last 16 at home. Consider the COWBOYS Sunday afternoon.
1* Free Pick on Broncos UNDER
Analysis will be posted shortly
Take the Colts +7 as they showed they have a solid defense and Andrew Luck played well at Washington in an easy win vs. the Redskins. There are +6, +6.5 and I even saw a +7.5 out there so shop around.
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Jack’s Free Pick Sunday: Baltimore Ravens -5
The Baltimore Ravens are in a good spot here. They have extra rest after playing last Thursday in a 23-34 loss to the Bengals. It was a tough scheduling spot there and they fell behind 21-0 quickly, but rallied and made a game out of it. They actually outgained the Bengals by 52 yards in that contest a week after outgaining the Bills by 216 yards in a dominant 47-3 home win.
I really like this Ravens team as I believe they are one of the better teams in the AFC. And I think Denver is a bit overvalued here off its 2-0 start. That 2-0 start has come at home against both the Seahawks and Raiders by a combined 4 points. They could easily be 0-2 as they trailed in the fourth quarter in both of those games.
And keep in mind playing in Denver is tough for any road team early in the season with the altitude. Now the Broncos will be hitting the road for the first time this season. They’ll be facing a hungry Ravens team here. And home-field advantage has been big in this series as the home team is 10-3 SU in the last 13 meetings. The Ravens are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six home meetings with the Broncos.
Denver’s pass defense has been exposed against two weak offenses in Oakland and Seattle. Russell Wilson threw for 298 yards and 3 touchdowns against them in Week 1. Then Derek Carr went 29-of-32 passing for 288 yards and a touchdown against them in Week 2. Joe Flacco should do more of the same here. He is completing 64% of his passes for 612 yards with five touchdowns and two picks through two games. He finally has some weapons outside with the additions of John Brown, Michael Crabtree and Willie Snead, who are their three leading receivers to this point.
Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Baltimore) - a good team from last season that outscoring their opponents by 4 or more points per game, after playing a game where 50 or more total points were scored are 35-12 (74.5%) ATS since 1983. The Broncos are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games. The favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Bet the Ravens Sunday.
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1 Unit FREE PLAY on New England Patriots -6.5
The Patriots are coming off an ugly loss to the Jaguars. Jacksonville simply wanted that game more after losing to New England in the AFC Championship Game last year. It’s a forgivable loss because the Jaguars are one of the best teams in the AFC again. But now the Patriots are off a loss, and they are dangerous off a defeat. Bill Belichick is 21-6 ATS off a double-digit loss as the coach of the Patriots. Belichick is also 14-3 ATS off a double-digit loss as a favorite as the coach of New England. Tom Brady should score at will against a Lions defense that has allowed 78 combined points through the first two weeks of the season. I don’t think the Lions will be able to keep up. Give me the Patriots.
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