The Heisman Trophy is awarded to the most outstanding player in college football each year. Before the start of each season, oddsmakers set the odds for those players who are most likely to win the award. Recently, being listed as the favorite in the preseason has been all but a guarantee not to win the Heisman (see our table at the bottom of the page for past results).
Alabama’s sophomore QB Too Tagovailoa has emerged as the front-runner in the preseason. It’s not surprising considering his play in last year’s championship game, plus just the fact that he is the projected starting quarterback on team with the best odds to win the college football playoff.
Just two of the last nine Heisman winners have been running backs, however, 2018 features are pair of backs in Stanford’s Bryce Love and Wisconsin’s Jonathan Taylor that are the among favorites to be voted the best player in college football. If history is any indication, however, a quarterback from this list, or perhaps from outside of it, will emerge as a contender before the season has concluded.
The Change column shows any movement in the odds since our last update (4/10). The last column, titled “Hesiman” represents the implied odds each player has to win the award at the given market odds.
| Player | Class | Pos | School | Odds | Change | Heisman |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | SO | QB | Alabama | +760 | +490 | 10.41% |
| Bryce Love | SR | RB | Stanford | +850 | -50 | 9.42% |
| Jonathan Taylor | SO | RB | Wisconsin | +900 | -150 | 8.95% |
| Jake Fromm | SO | QB | Georgia | +1600 | -200 | 5.27% |
| Khalil Tate | JR | QB | Arizona | +1700 | -300 | 4.97% |
| JK Dobbins | SO | RB | Ohio State | +2100 | None | 4.07% |
| Trace McSorley | SR | QB | Penn State | +2250 | +250 | 3.81% |
| Justin Herbert | JR | QB | Oregon | +2400 | +1100 | 3.58% |
| Kyler Murray | JR | QB | Oklahoma | +2500 | -500 | 3.44% |
| Dwayne Haskins | SO | QB | Ohio State | +2500 | +1000 | 3.44% |
| Will Grier | SR | QB | West Virginia | +2750 | -250 | 3.14% |
| Jarrett Stidham | JR | QB | Auburn | +2900 | -200 | 2.98% |
| Shea Patterson | JR | QB | Michigan | +3000 | -800 | 2.89% |
| Trevor Lawrence | FR | QB | Clemson | +3000 | New | 2.89% |
| Cam Akers | SO | RB | Florida State | +3100 | -600 | 2.80% |
| D’Andre Swift | SO | RB | Georgia | +3500 | None | 2.49% |
| Deondre Francois | JR | QB | Florida State | +4200 | -700 | 2.08% |
| Jake Browning | SR | QB | Washington | +4500 | +500 | 1.95% |
| Drew Lock | SR | QB | Missouri | +4500 | -1000 | 1.95% |
| Rodney Anderson | JR | RB | Oklahoma | +5000 | -2500 | 1.76% |
| Damien Harris | SR | RB | Alabama | +5500 | New | 1.60% |
| Kelly Bryant | SR | QB | Clemson | +5500 | -2000 | 1.60% |
| Nick Fitzgerald | SR | QB | Mississippi State | +6000 | -2000 | 1.47% |
| Brandon Wimbush | SR | QB | Notre Dame | +6000 | -2500 | 1.47% |
| KJ Costello | SO | QB | Stanford | +7500 | -2500 | 1.18% |
| McKenzie Milton | JR | QB | UCF | +8000 | -4700 | 1.11% |
| Travis Etienne | SO | RB | Clemson | +8000 | -1300 | 1.11% |
| Sam Ehlinger | SO | QB | Texas | +8500 | -5800 | 1.04% |
| Jalen Hurts | JR | QB | Alabama | +10000 | -5000 | 0.89% |
| Ed Oliver | JR | DT | Houston | +12500 | -5900 | 0.71% |
| Nick Bosa | JR | DE | Ohio State | +12500 | -4500 | 0.71% |
| Justice Hill | JR | RB | Oklahoma State | +12500 | -4500 | 0.71% |
| Ryan Finley | SR | QB | NC State | +12500 | -2500 | 0.71% |
| Myles Gaskin | SR | RB | Washington | +12500 | New | 0.71% |
| Malik Rosier | SR | QB | Miami FL | +12500 | New | 0.71% |
| JT Daniels | FR | QB | USC | +12500 | New | 0.71% |
| Jake Bentley | JR | QB | South Carolina | +12500 | New | 0.71% |
| Stephen Carr | SO | RB | USC | +15000 | New | 0.59% |
| Dexter Lawrence | JR | DT | Clemson | +15000 | New | 0.59% |
| N’Keal Harry | JR | WR | Arizona State | +15000 | -7000 | 0.59% |
| JD Spielman | SO | WR | Nebraska | +15000 | -5000 | 0.59% |
| Nick Starkel | SO | QB | Texas A&M | +20000 | New | 0.45% |
| KirVonte Benson | JR | RB | Georgia Tech | +20000 | New | 0.45% |
| AJ Brown | JR | WR | Mississippi | +20000 | New | 0.45% |
| David Montgomery | JR | RB | Iowa State | +20000 | New | 0.45% |
| Brian Lewerke | JR | QB | Michigan State | +20000 | New | 0.45% |
| Brett Rypien | SR | QB | Boise State | +20000 | New | 0.45% |
| Devin Singletary | JR | RB | Florida Atlantic | +20000 | New | 0.45% |
| Alex Hornibrook | JR | QB | Wisconsin | +20000 | New | 0.45% |
| Josh Jackson | SO | QB | Virginia Tech | +20000 | New | 0.45% |
| Juwan Washington | JR | RB | San Diego State | +20000 | New | 0.45% |
| Clayton Thorson | SR | QB | Northwestern | +20000 | New | 0.45% |
| Charlie Brewer | SO | QB | Baylor | +20000 | New | 0.45% |
| Frank Nutile | SR | QB | Temple | +20000 | New | 0.45% |
| Lorenzo Lingard | FR | RB | Miami FL | +22500 | New | 0.40% |
| David Sills | SR | WR | West Virginia | +22500 | -7500 | 0.40% |
| Ben Hicks | JR | QB | SMU | +25000 | -10000 | 0.36% |
| Adrian Killins | JR | RB | UCF | +25000 | -10000 | 0.36% |
| Benny Snell | JR | RB | Kentucky | +30000 | New | 0.30% |
| Nathan Rourke | JR | QB | Ohio | +30000 | New | 0.30% |
| Jalen Hurd | SR | WR | Baylor | +30000 | New | 0.30% |
| Diontae Johnson | JR | WR | Toledo | +30000 | New | 0.30% |
| Micah Parsons | FR | LB | Penn State | +35000 | New | 0.26% |
| Malcolm Perry | JR | QB | Navy | +40000 | -10000 | 0.22% |
| Penny Hart | JR | WR | Georgia State | +50000 | New | 0.18% |
If you are thinking about placing a wager on a player to win the Heisman, you may want to consider picking someone other than the favorite. Since we started archiving these odds in 2009, no favorite to win prior to the season has ended up taking home the award. In fact, many of the players who ended up winning were not listed with odds to win in the preseason, we’ve marked those players with an asterisk (*).
Perhaps most notably, Johnny Manziel in 2012 wasn’t even available to bet in futures markets until the eight week of the season. At that time he had the sixth-best odds on the board at +1200, with Geno Smith listed as the favorite at -250 (Braxton Miller +500, Collin Klein +700, Matt Barkley +800, and DeAnthony Thomas +800 were all listed ahead of him as well).
Given the past results, you’re better off taking a player in the +2000 range than hoping the preseason favorite pays off.
| Year | Winner | Preseason | Favorite | Preseason |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | Baker Mayfield | +1000 | Sam Darnold | +500 |
| 2016 | Lamar Jackson | +10000 | DeShaun Watson | +500 |
| 2015 | Derrick Henry | +2500 | Trevone Boykin | +625 |
| 2014 | Marcus Mariota | +425 | Jameis Winston | +240 |
| 2013 | Jameis Winston* | +600 | Braxton Miller/Johnny Manziel | +350 |
| 2012 | Johnny Manziel* | +1200 | Matt Barkley | +300 |
| 2011 | Robert Griffin III | +2800 | Andrew Luck | +325 |
| 2010 | Cam Newton* | +2000 | Mark Ingram | +400 |
| 2009 | Mark Ingram* | +3300 | Tim Tebow | +225 |