2018 Heisman Trophy Winner Odds

The Heisman Trophy is awarded to the most outstanding player in college football each year.  Before the start of each season, oddsmakers set the odds for those players who are most likely to win the award.  Recently, being listed as the favorite in the preseason has been all but a guarantee not to win the Heisman (see our table at the bottom of the page for past results).

Alabama’s sophomore QB Too Tagovailoa has emerged as the front-runner in the preseason.  It’s not surprising considering his play in last year’s championship game, plus just the fact that he is the projected starting quarterback on team with the best odds to win the college football playoff.

Just two of the last nine Heisman winners have been running backs, however, 2018 features are pair of backs in Stanford’s Bryce Love and Wisconsin’s Jonathan Taylor that are the among favorites to be voted the best player in college football.  If history is any indication, however, a quarterback from this list, or perhaps from outside of it, will emerge as a contender before the season has concluded.

The Change column shows any movement in the odds since our last update (4/10).  The last column, titled “Hesiman” represents the implied odds each player has to win the award at the given market odds.

2018 Heisman Trophy: Updated Odds to Win

Player Class Pos School Odds Change Heisman
Tua Tagovailoa SO QB Alabama +760 +490 10.41%
Bryce Love SR RB Stanford +850 -50 9.42%
Jonathan Taylor SO RB Wisconsin +900 -150 8.95%
Jake Fromm SO QB Georgia +1600 -200 5.27%
Khalil Tate JR QB Arizona +1700 -300 4.97%
JK Dobbins SO RB Ohio State +2100 None 4.07%
Trace McSorley SR QB Penn State +2250 +250 3.81%
Justin Herbert JR QB Oregon +2400 +1100 3.58%
Kyler Murray JR QB Oklahoma +2500 -500 3.44%
Dwayne Haskins SO QB Ohio State +2500 +1000 3.44%
Will Grier SR QB West Virginia +2750 -250 3.14%
Jarrett Stidham JR QB Auburn +2900 -200 2.98%
Shea Patterson JR QB Michigan +3000 -800 2.89%
Trevor Lawrence FR QB Clemson +3000 New 2.89%
Cam Akers SO RB Florida State +3100 -600 2.80%
D’Andre Swift SO RB Georgia +3500 None 2.49%
Deondre Francois JR QB Florida State +4200 -700 2.08%
Jake Browning SR QB Washington +4500 +500 1.95%
Drew Lock SR QB Missouri +4500 -1000 1.95%
Rodney Anderson JR RB Oklahoma +5000 -2500 1.76%
Damien Harris SR RB Alabama +5500 New 1.60%
Kelly Bryant SR QB Clemson +5500 -2000 1.60%
Nick Fitzgerald SR QB Mississippi State +6000 -2000 1.47%
Brandon Wimbush SR QB Notre Dame +6000 -2500 1.47%
KJ Costello SO QB Stanford +7500 -2500 1.18%
McKenzie Milton JR QB UCF +8000 -4700 1.11%
Travis Etienne SO RB Clemson +8000 -1300 1.11%
Sam Ehlinger SO QB Texas +8500 -5800 1.04%
Jalen Hurts JR QB Alabama +10000 -5000 0.89%
Ed Oliver JR DT Houston +12500 -5900 0.71%
Nick Bosa JR DE Ohio State +12500 -4500 0.71%
Justice Hill JR RB Oklahoma State +12500 -4500 0.71%
Ryan Finley SR QB NC State +12500 -2500 0.71%
Myles Gaskin SR RB Washington +12500 New 0.71%
Malik Rosier SR QB Miami FL +12500 New 0.71%
JT Daniels FR QB USC +12500 New 0.71%
Jake Bentley JR QB South Carolina +12500 New 0.71%
Stephen Carr SO RB USC +15000 New 0.59%
Dexter Lawrence JR DT Clemson +15000 New 0.59%
N’Keal Harry JR WR Arizona State +15000 -7000 0.59%
JD Spielman SO WR Nebraska +15000 -5000 0.59%
Nick Starkel SO QB Texas A&M +20000 New 0.45%
KirVonte Benson JR RB Georgia Tech +20000 New 0.45%
AJ Brown JR WR Mississippi +20000 New 0.45%
David Montgomery JR RB Iowa State +20000 New 0.45%
Brian Lewerke JR QB Michigan State +20000 New 0.45%
Brett Rypien SR QB Boise State +20000 New 0.45%
Devin Singletary JR RB Florida Atlantic +20000 New 0.45%
Alex Hornibrook JR QB Wisconsin +20000 New 0.45%
Josh Jackson SO QB Virginia Tech +20000 New 0.45%
Juwan Washington JR RB San Diego State +20000 New 0.45%
Clayton Thorson SR QB Northwestern +20000 New 0.45%
Charlie Brewer SO QB Baylor +20000 New 0.45%
Frank Nutile SR QB Temple +20000 New 0.45%
Lorenzo Lingard FR RB Miami FL +22500 New 0.40%
David Sills SR WR West Virginia +22500 -7500 0.40%
Ben Hicks JR QB SMU +25000 -10000 0.36%
Adrian Killins JR RB UCF +25000 -10000 0.36%
Benny Snell JR RB Kentucky +30000 New 0.30%
Nathan Rourke JR QB Ohio +30000 New 0.30%
Jalen Hurd SR WR Baylor +30000 New 0.30%
Diontae Johnson JR WR Toledo +30000 New 0.30%
Micah Parsons FR LB Penn State +35000 New 0.26%
Malcolm Perry JR QB Navy +40000 -10000 0.22%
Penny Hart JR WR Georgia State +50000 New 0.18%

Past Heisman Winners & Preseason Favorites Odds

If you are thinking about placing a wager on a player to win the Heisman, you may want to consider picking someone other than the favorite.  Since we started archiving these odds in 2009, no favorite to win prior to the season has ended up taking home the award.  In fact, many of the players who ended up winning were not listed with odds to win in the preseason, we’ve marked those players with an asterisk (*).

Perhaps most notably, Johnny Manziel in 2012 wasn’t even available to bet in futures markets until the eight week of the season.  At that time he had the sixth-best odds on the board at +1200, with Geno Smith listed as the favorite at -250 (Braxton Miller +500, Collin Klein +700, Matt Barkley +800, and DeAnthony Thomas +800 were all listed ahead of him as well).

Given the past results, you’re better off taking a player in the +2000 range than hoping the preseason favorite pays off.

Year Winner Preseason Favorite Preseason
2017 Baker Mayfield +1000 Sam Darnold +500
2016 Lamar Jackson +10000 DeShaun Watson +500
2015 Derrick Henry +2500 Trevone Boykin +625
2014 Marcus Mariota +425 Jameis Winston +240
2013 Jameis Winston* +600 Braxton Miller/Johnny Manziel +350
2012 Johnny Manziel* +1200 Matt Barkley +300
2011 Robert Griffin III +2800 Andrew Luck +325
2010 Cam Newton* +2000 Mark Ingram +400
2009 Mark Ingram* +3300 Tim Tebow +225

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