Saturday NCAAF Free play. My selection is on the ‘under’ between Notre Dame and Wake Forest at 12 noon et on Saturday.
We won a big play on the ‘over’ in Wake Forest’s wild 41-34 home loss to Boston College last week but I won’t hesitate to switch gears and back the ‘under’ as the Demon Deacons host the Irish on Saturday afternoon.
While the Notre Dame offense has struggled a bit in the early going this season, its defense has been stout to say the least. The Irish have yet to allow more than 17 points in a game. Last week they didn’t allow Vanderbilt to reach the end zone until the closing seconds of the third quarter (we won with the ‘under’ in that contest). Even against a quality Michigan offense back in Week 1, Notre Dame held the Wolverines offense out of the end zone until the final three minutes of the fourth quarter (it did give up a kick return touchdown in the second quarter).
While Wake Forest has put up a whopping 85 points over its last two games, one of those came against FCS squad Towson and it’s hard to ignore the fact that the Demon Deacons were held out of the end zone until the back half of the second quarter in their season-opener at Tulane (they didn’t score another touchdown until the fourth quarter in that one).
Defensively, Wake Forest got ripped by Boston College last week but we’re talking about a multi-dimensional Eagles offense. That game really opened up after Wake Forest blocked a punt and returned it for a touchdown nearly halfway through the second quarter. The Deacons will undoubtedly need to do a better job of limiting big plays but it’s not as if the Irish offense has been lighting it up. Take the under (8*).
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3* on Western Michigan
1* Free Play on Washington State/USC under 53 -110
Free Play on Memphis -26 -110
The Golden Knights are at a nice number here on Friday and worth a flyer.
Central Florida has opened the season 2-0 and have absolutely been dominant in both contests. They've averaged 47 points per game through the short span as this offense has been extremely threatening.
QB McKenzie Milton has tossed for 6 touchdowns thus far as he has been able to link up with Tre Nixon and Gabriel Davis on a consistent basis. The duo has forced opposing secondaries into a lot of issues and they figure to give this FAU defense a tall task.
FAU has conceded 39.3 points per game here in 2018, which doesn't bode well here for them in this matchup.
Some trends to note. Owls are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in September. Owls are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Friday games.
Lay the points.
Back UCF ATS.
Good Luck, Razor Ray.
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Free Pick on Central Florida
Free Play on Penn State vs Illinois under 60 -105
UMass is 1-3 on the season, but has finally returned home after three straight losses. The common thread for those games was an underachieving offense and a lack of defense against the run. All three teams put up over 300 yards rushing on the Minutemen. Andrew Ford and Ross Comis are both injured at quarterback for them. Michael Curtis came in and moved the chains a little bit in the loss to FIU in garbage time. Charlotte is 2-1 and they are playing their first road game this season. Charlotte beat Fordham and ODU in between a 45-9 loss to Appalachian State. The team is using the run heavily to take the pressure off their redshirt freshman quarterback. The defense has held up for the most part although they did give up 70 the last two weeks. UMass has gone over in 16 of their last 27 including eight of their last 12 at home. I think this one does as well.
Jack’s Free Pick Saturday: Clemson -15
I think the fact that Clemson is 0-3 ATS thus far this season is keeping this number against Georgia Tech lower than it should be in Week 4. They beat Furman 48-7 but failed to cover as 50-point favorites, they beat Texas A&M on the road 28-26 but failed to cover as 12-point favorites, and they beat Georgia Southern 38-7 and barely failed to cover as 31.5-point favorites.
But that Georgia Southern game was a bigger blowout than the final score even. The Tigers outgained them by 455 yards and should have won by more. And the fact that they played Georgia Southern will be a huge help here because they are playing a triple-option offense for a second consecutive week.
Clemson has certainly had an answer for Georgia Tech’s triple-option offense in recent years, too. Over the past three years, the Tigers have held the Yellow Jackets to just 121 rushing yards per game and 2.9 per carry in their three meetings. Georgia Tech has only managed 17 combined points in its last two meetings with Clemson.
This is a Georgia Tech team that simply isn’t any good. They lost 38-49 as a 3-point favorite at South Florida in Week 2. Then they trailed 6-24 at Pitt last week as this game was decided early before they tacked on a couple of scores late in a 19-24 loss. The big blow was losing RB KirVonte Benson to a season-ending injury in that USF defeat. He rushed for 1,053 yards last year and was their best playmaker outside their QB. No other RB topped 280 yards rushing last year.
Clemson boasts a potent offense that is putting up 38.0 points and 513 yards per game this season. They will do enough offensively to put Georgia Tech away, and I expect their defense to continue the three-year trend of coordinator Will Venables shutting down the triple-option. Look for the Tigers to be focused for their ACC opener and win big in this one. Bet Clemson Saturday.
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My free play is on Utah State at 10:15 ET. The Air Force Falcons and the Utah State Aggies, a pair of teams from the Mountain Division of the Mountain West Conference, will square off Saturday night at Maverik Stadium in Logan, Utah. The Falcons opened the 2018 season with a 38-0 win over Stony Brook 38but then lost 33-27 at Florida Atlantic 33-27 on September 8. Air Force had a bye last weekend and now face a Utah State team that's 2-1, losing only at Michigan State on August 31 as about a 24-point underdog. The Aggies come in off back-to-back blowout wins at home, 60-13 over New Mexico State and 73-12 over Tennessee Tech.
It looks as if Air Force will go with Isaiah Sanders at QB, who was 8-of-13 for 164 yards, one TD and one INT in the loss at FAU. The Air Force D was unable to contain FAU, allowing
525 total yards, including 471 through the air. They became the first service academy beaten by the Owls in their school history. Air Force never led in the game, falling behind 13-0.
After giving a Michigan State team all it wanted at East Lansing in Utah State's opener, the Aggies have shown no mercy in the last two weeks, piling up 133 points in blowing out New Mexico State and Tennessee Tech. Utah St has scored 60-plus points in back-to-back games for the first time in school history.
Both teams have struggled in conference games ATS as of late. Air Force is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 conference games, while Utah State is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 conference games. It's true that the Falcons have a 4-2 edge in the all-time series and have won three straight meetings (including a 38-35 home win in the last meeting on November 25, 2017) but Utah State's offense has been terrific (not many schools score 31 at Michigan St) and the team's 54.7 PPG ranks 4th-best in the nation. Lay the points.
Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take #411 Eastern Michigan Eagles over San Diego State Aztecs (10:30p.m., Saturday, September 22CBSSN) The Aztecs are coming off a big win over Arizona State last Saturday. That being said they are not an explosive offense to be laying this many points. EMU already has a win against Purdue this season and they are able to move the football through the air averaging over 332 passing yards per game. This game should go down to the wire and expect the Eagles to easily cover the spread. Eastern Michigan is 14-3 ATS in their last 17 nonconference games. SDSU is 7-15 ATS (1 push) in their last 23 games played during September.
Free Total Annihilator On Washington State vs USC under 54 -115
1* Free Play on Notre Dame -7½ +100
Kansas is one of the early-season feel good stories. The Jayhawks have won their last two games beating Central Michigan and Rutgers. Kansas had won three games during its previous three years under fourth-year head coach David Beaty. So what gives with the Jayhawks? Are they really better. Maybe a little. But look for things to revert back to normal for Kansas as it can't maintain it's unbelievable plus 12 turnover margin. That's No. 1 in the country! Kansas had all of nine takeaways last year. Baylor has a far more explosive offense than Kansas and is a step up for the Jayhawks. The Bears have defeated Kansas eight straight times with the average winning margin being by 37 points. Kansas has lost 38 straight Big 12 road contests. The 2-1 Bears will be fired up after a disappointing 40-27 home loss to Duke last week. Duke is good, though. Kansas is not. Pooka Williams is a promising runner. Steven Sims Jr. is a dependable wide receiver. Other than that, I don't think much of Kansas' offense. Baylor has a solid quarterback rotation of Charlie Brewer and Jalan McClendon and are deep at running back and wide receiver. Look for reality to hit the Jayhawks here. (Editor's note: Stephen Nover is one of the top football handicappers in North America and he's off to hot starts both in the NFL, where he 12-6-2 through preseason and the first two weeks of the season, and 8-3 the past two weeks in college football entering this week. Stick with Stephen and stack the odds high in your favor!)
1* Free Sharp Play on Penn State vs Illinois under 58 -109
My money is on the UNDER in Friday's Big Ten matchup that has Illinois hosting Penn State. While Illinois is improved from last year, they still got a long way to go, especially on the offensive side of the ball. They couldn't even manage 400 yards against an awful USF defense at home last week and finished that game with a mere 19-points. It's not going to be any easier against the Nittany Lions, who are holding teams to 12 less than their average. Illinois also has no passing attack and Penn State is only giving up 3.5 yards/carry. The key here is the Nittany Lions offense has started out slow and this Illinois defense should be able to hold their own at home in front of a rowdy crowd. I'm not saying the Nittany Lions won't score, I just don't think they can keep them under 40 points and that should keep this well below the mark. Bet the UNDER 58!
Play - Illinois (Game 308).
Edges - Illini: 7-1 ATS as home dogs of 18 or more points; and Lovie Smith 3-0 ATS as a dog of 27 or more points … With Penn State looking dead ahead to a game with Ohio State next week, we recommend a 1* play ion Illinois. Thank you and good luck as always.
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1* Free Pick on Oregon +
Analysis will be posted shortly
The Knights on a 15 game winning streak dating back to last season have not played since a 38-0 shutout of South Carolina State at home the second weekend of the season. With some practices missed and the team having to deal with a little bit of rust, Im betting they take time to find their footing against what I have pegged as an explosive Florida Atlantic offence fighting for area bragging rights going into next years recruiting wars. FAU's Lane Kiffin also gives Florida Atlantic a edge as the superior coach vs Heupel who makes only his third start as a FBS coach. I know Florida Atlantic got smashed by the Oklahoma Sooners in their opener, but they did follow that up with a win vs Air Force in their next game, and than a lower tiered Bethune Cookman last week.
Owls 5-1 ATS L/6 as DD chalk.
CFB Road underdogs (FLA ATLANTIC) - with a terrible defense - allowing 6.1 or more yards/play, after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game are 52-16 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on Florida Atlantic to cover
NC State @ Marshall 7:00 PM ET
Play On: Marshall +5.5
This is a dangerous spot for NC State with their ACC slate about to begin next week. Furthermore, they had their game against nationally ranked West Virginia cancelled last week due to “Hurricane Florence” which stalled their momentum from a 2-0 start. Ryan Finley is an excellent quarterback but I’m not crazy about his surrounding cast. This will be by far their toughest game to date after facing James Madison and Georgia State at home in their first 2 games.
Marshall is an experienced and very good “Group of Five” team. The Thundering Herd has gone 28-7 straight up in their last 35 home games and that includes 10-2 when facing non-conference opponents. Since 2017, Marshall is a perfect 4-0 ATS as an underdog of 3.0-points or less and they won 3 of those contests straight up. They’ll also be playing with revenge stemming from last year’s 37-20 loss at NC State. I wouldn’t be shocked at all to see the Thundering Herb pull off an upset on Saturday. However, I won’t be greedy and will take the points with Marshall for my Saturday 9/22 college football free pick of the day.
Take the Penn State Nittany Lions minus the points versus the Illinois Fighting Illini. Penn State (3-0) comes off a 63-10 blowout win over Kent State last Saturday. The Nittany Lions are then 21-5-1 ATS in their last 27 games after a straight-up win. Penn State is also 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Illinois (2-1) looks to bounce-back from a 29-15 loss to South Florida last Saturday. The Fighting Illini have questions at quarterback with their graduate transfer A.J. Bush questionable with a leg injury which caused him to miss that game against the Bulls. Freshman M.J. Rivers was under center last week — and he might have to start again in this contest which is not a good sign for an Illinois team that has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. The Illini has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. I don’t like laying four touchdowns — especially with road favorites — but the Nittany Lions should roll on national television. Lay the points with Penn State. Best of luck — Frank.
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Mikey Sports FREE CFB play Friday 9-21-18
Central Florida -12 1/2
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1 Unit FREE PLAY on Texas +3.5
The Texas Longhorns had a statement win last week in a 37-14 beat down of USC at home. I think this is a program headed in the right direction and are one of the best teams in the Big 12. They will be out to prove that this week at home against TCU as they look to build on the momentum they’ve gained. I think this is a bad situation for TCU as it feels like it should have won last week against Ohio State, but lost 28-40. I believe they will have dwelled on that loss for at least a few days before turning their attention to Texas. Tom Herman is going to use the ‘underdog card’ in this game. Including his time as an assistant at Iowa State and Ohio State, Herman is a ridiculous 21-1 ATS as an underdog in all games as a coach. Wrong team favored here. Give me Texas.
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Pure Lock's FREE CFB play Friday 9-21-18
Penn State -27 -107
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