The Philadelphia Eagles are Super Bowl Champions after an incredible 41-33 performance against the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LII. Almost immediately after the game, oddsmakers were quick to release their odds for next year. They’ve since been updated several times.
NFL futures odds are best described as the “odds to win the Super Bowl”. These are the odds given to each team based on the probability they will win the Super Bowl. As the season progresses the lines are updated to give a clear picture of who the favorite or favorites to win are.
According to BetOnline, the LA Rams (+300) are the favorites to win Super Bowl LIII after their Week 5 win over the Seahawks in Seattle in what was the Rams closest game to date. The Rams and the Chiefs are the only two undefeated teams left in the NFL and, not surprisingly, they are each favored to represent their conference in this year’s Super Bowl.
Among the serious contenders to win this year’s Lombardi Trophy, the Jacksonville Jaguars took the biggest hit with a lackluster performance against Kansas City this past week. The Jags are still favored to win the AFC South, however, confidence in them right now is at a season low. This is still a good team and an attractive price at 18-to-1, however, I don’t see much value in taking them to win the Super Bowl at this time with the Chiefs and Patriots being as good as they are in the same conference.
Now let’s look at the projected division winners and the odds for every team to win Super Bowl 53.
These are the projected winners for each division as predicted by the latest odds update.
AFC East: Patriots
AFC North: Ravens
AFC South: Jaguars
AFC West: Chiefs
NFC East: Eagles
NFC North: Packers
NFC South: Saints
NFC West: Rams
Super Bowl Matchup Projection: Chiefs vs Rams
Projected SB LIII Winner: Los Angeles Rams
The change column represents how much the odds have moved since the last time they were updated. Our power index estimates the point advantage or disadvantage each team has against an approximately average NFL team on a neutral field. The Odds column are the latest odds from BetOnline. The Super Bowl column represents the implied, normalized probability that team will win the Super Bowl.
| Team | 2018 Record | Division | 2018 MOV | Odds | Change | Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rams | 5-0-0 | NFC West | 15.0 | +300 | None | 20.57% |
| Chiefs | 5-0-0 | AFC West | 9.2 | +650 | +50 | 10.97% |
| Patriots | 3-2-0 | AFC East | 5.0 | +700 | None | 10.29% |
| Saints | 4-1-0 | NFC South | 8.0 | +1000 | +400 | 7.48% |
| Jaguars | 3-2-0 | AFC South | 3.2 | +1800 | -800 | 4.33% |
| Vikings | 2-2-1 | NFC North | -3.6 | +1800 | +200 | 4.33% |
| Ravens | 3-2-0 | AFC North | 11.0 | +2000 | None | 3.92% |
| Chargers | 3-2-0 | AFC West | 1.4 | +2000 | +800 | 3.92% |
| Panthers | 3-1-0 | NFC South | 3.2 | +2500 | +1500 | 3.16% |
| Bears | 3-1-0 | NFC North | 11.5 | +2500 | None | 3.16% |
| Bengals | 4-1-0 | AFC North | 4.6 | +2500 | +800 | 3.16% |
| Eagles | 2-3-0 | NFC East | -0.2 | +2500 | -500 | 3.16% |
| Steelers | 2-2-1 | AFC North | 2.0 | +2500 | +300 | 3.16% |
| Packers | 2-2-1 | NFC North | 0.2 | +2800 | -1000 | 2.84% |
| Texans | 2-3-0 | AFC South | -1.8 | +4000 | +1000 | 2.01% |
| Browns | 2-2-1 | AFC North | 0.2 | +6600 | +3400 | 1.23% |
| Falcons | 1-4-0 | NFC South | -6.0 | +6600 | -1600 | 1.23% |
| Cowboys | 2-3-0 | NFC East | -2.6 | +6600 | None | 1.23% |
| Redskins | 2-2-0 | NFC East | -1.0 | +6600 | -1600 | 1.23% |
| Titans | 3-2-0 | AFC South | 0.2 | +6600 | -1600 | 1.23% |
| Lions | 2-3-0 | NFC North | -2.4 | +6600 | +3400 | 1.23% |
| Seahawks | 2-3-0 | NFC West | 0.4 | +8000 | -1400 | 1.02% |
| Dolphins | 3-2-0 | AFC East | -3.6 | +10000 | -3400 | 0.81% |
| Bucs | 2-2-0 | NFC South | -6.8 | +10000 | None | 0.81% |
| Giants | 1-4-0 | NFC East | -4.8 | +10000 | None | 0.81% |
| Bills | 2-3-0 | AFC East | -11.0 | +15000 | +60000 | 0.54% |
| Broncos | 2-3-0 | AFC West | -6.2 | +15000 | -7000 | 0.54% |
| Jets | 2-3-0 | AFC East | 3.6 | +15000 | +15000 | 0.54% |
| Colts | 1-4-0 | AFC South | -4.0 | +20000 | -10000 | 0.41% |
| Raiders | 1-4-0 | AFC West | -8.4 | +25000 | -15000 | 0.33% |
| Cardinals | 1-4-0 | NFC West | -9.4 | +50000 | +50000 | 0.16% |
| 49ers | 1-4-0 | NFC West | -5.6 | +50000 | None | 0.16% |
The term “Vegas Odds” has come to encompass any betting line on the game, but it is important to remember that Vegas odds can differ from lines you might see online or from a local bookie.
The “opener” is represents the first crack that oddsmakers take at giving what they think is a fair market price on each team. Once this is set and money starts to come in on different bets, books adjust and the lines eventually settle in.
For the Vegas odds we took a look at the major sportsbooks and found the the majority agreed with the odds at Caesar’s Palace, but that a few books (e.g. Westgate & Station Casino) had taken large wagers on the Eagles and had adjusted their lines further. The total has moved a point across the board in Vegas versus the opener, but it is uniform on and off the strip.
Much like the Vegas books, the majority of online books agree on this year’s spread, however, 5Dimes appears to be the outlier as of this posting. If you like the Patriots, you may want to grab an account as they have by far the best line available. There are also a few books (BetOnline being one) with a half-point different total than the consensus, however they have adjusted the vig so that it is essentially the same wager.
First half odds allow you to bet only on the first half of the game. The results are based on the score at halftime, regardless of what the final score ends up being.
By now everyone is familiar with the crazy props available on the Super Bowl each year. You can bet on just about anything. The length of the National Anthem, the coin flip, how many passing yards each quarterback will have, how many times the announcers will say certain words, etc., etc. I’ve posted some of my favorites from 5Dimes below, however, there are simply too many to list here.
And so on…Sign up for an account and you can bet on any of these props, and many, many more, should you feel you have and advantage on any of them.