Las Vegas Favorites & Each Teams Odds to Win Super Bowl 54 in 2020

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NFL futures odds are best described as the “odds to win the Super Bowl”.  These are the odds given to each team based on the probability they will win the Super Bowl.  As the season progresses the lines are updated to give a clear picture of who the favorite or favorites to win are.

The Super Bowl LIII winners were the New England Patriots. The Pats defeated the Rams by a final score of 13-3 in one of the most unusual Super Bowls of all-time.

After the opening week of the season, the Patriots are once again the odds-on favorites to win the Super Bowl. The Pats looked impressive in their win over the Steelers last week, plus they added wide receiver Antonio Brown, though he may not be able to play any time soon due to the recently announced sexual assault/rape lawsuit. Despite that news, expect New England to remain the favorites.

The team near the top hit the hardest by their Week 1 results are the Browns. Many thought this was the year for the Browns to turn things around, however, they looked awful in a 30-point loss and are now tied with the Ravens as the favorites to win the AFC North. The Cowboys and Vikings also made big moves this week with their victories.

The Dolphins were already expected to have a down year, but their 49-point loss to the Ravens has pushed them well below any other team in terms of probability to win the Super Bowl this season.

Now, here’s a look at the implied division winners and playoffs based on current market odds.

Projected Division Winners

AFC

North: Browns/Ravens (tie)
West: Chiefs
East: Patriots
South: Texans

Conference Champion: Patriots

NFC

North: Bears
West: Rams
East: Eagles
South: Saints

Conference Champion: Saints

Super Bowl Projections

Matchup: Patriots vs Saints
SB LIV Winner:
New England Patriots

NFL Futures: Odds to Win Super Bowl 54 (LIV)

The change column represents how much the odds have moved since the last time they were updated.  The MOV included is that team’s average margin of victory, which is sometimes helpful in creating your own spread on a game.  The Odds column are the latest odds from BetOnline.  The Super Bowl column represents the implied no-vig probability that each team will win the big game.

Team 2019 Record Division 2019 MOV Odds Change Super Bowl
Patriots 1-0-0 AFC East 30.0 +400 +400 15.32%
Chiefs 1-0-0 AFC West 14.0 +700 +100 9.58%
Saints 1-0-0 NFC South 2.0 +800 +200 8.51%
Rams 1-0-0 NFC West 3.0 +1200 +200 5.89%
Eagles 1-0-0 NFC East 5.0 +1200 None 5.89%
Chargers 1-0-0 AFC West 6.0 +1400 None 5.11%
Cowboys 1-0-0 NFC East 18.0 +1600 +1200 4.51%
Packers 1-0-0 NFC North 7.0 +1600 +400 4.51%
Vikings 1-0-0 NFC North 16.0 +1600 +1200 4.51%
Bears 0-1-0 NFC North -7.0 +2000 -400 3.65%
Ravens 1-0-0 AFC North 49.0 +2500 +800 2.95%
Browns 0-1-0 AFC North -30.0 +2500 -700 2.95%
49ers 1-0-0 NFC West 14.0 +2500 +1500 2.95%
Seahawks 1-0-0 NFC West 1.0 +2500 +800 2.95%
Texans 0-1-0 AFC South -2.0 +2800 None 2.64%
Steelers 0-1-0 AFC North -30.0 +2800 -600 2.64%
Titans 1-0-0 AFC South 30.0 +3300 +4700 2.25%
Falcons 0-1-0 NFC South -16.0 +4000 -700 1.87%
Panthers 0-1-0 NFC South -3.0 +5000 -1000 1.50%
Bills 1-0-0 AFC East 1.0 +6600 +3400 1.14%
Colts 0-1-0 AFC South -6.0 +6600 -1600 1.14%
Jaguars 0-1-0 AFC South -14.0 +6600 -1600 1.14%
Jets 0-1-0 AFC East -1.0 +8000 -1400 0.95%
Cardinals 0-0-1 NFC West 0.0 +10000 +5000 0.76%
Broncos 0-1-0 AFC West -8.0 +10000 -2000 0.76%
Lions 0-0-1 NFC North 0.0 +10000 None 0.76%
Giants 0-1-0 NFC East -18.0 +10000 -2000 0.76%
Raiders 1-0-0 AFC West 8.0 +10000 None 0.76%
Bengals 0-1-0 AFC North -1.0 +15000 None 0.51%
Bucs 0-1-0 NFC South -14.0 +15000 -2500 0.51%
Redskins 0-1-0 NFC East -5.0 +15000 None 0.51%
Dolphins 0-1-0 AFC East -49.0 +50000 -25000 0.15%

What Were the Vegas Odds on the Most Recent Super Bowl?

The term “Vegas Odds” has come to encompass any betting line on the game, but it is important to remember that Vegas odds can differ from lines you might see online or from a local bookie.

Super Bowl LIII Opening Betting Line

The “opener” is represents the first crack that oddsmakers take at giving what they think is a fair market price on each team.  Once this is set and money starts to come in on different bets, books adjust and the lines eventually settle in.

Opening Point Spread:  Patriots PK +105 / Rams PK -125
Opening Total:  Over 57.5 -110 / Under 57.5 -110
Opening Moneyline: Patriots +105/ Rams -125

Current Vegas Odds

For the Vegas odds we took a look at the major sportsbooks and found the the majority agreed with the odds at Caesar’s Palace, but that a few books (e.g. Westgate & Station Casino) have adjusted by a half point.  The total has moved a half point as well in some spots, but can be found at 57.5 at most shops.

Caesar’s Palace (consensus):  Patriots -2 -110
Westgate/Station:  Patriots -1.5 -110
Consensus Over/Under:  57.5 -110
Westgate/Station Over/Under: 58 -110
Moneyline:  Patriots -130 to -135 / Rams +110 to +115

Current Offshore Odds

You will find much more variety at offshore books right now, which don’t have a strong consensus. Granted, there isn’t much difference between a 1.5 and 2.5 line in the NFL, so take these early fluctuations with a grain of salt while the line settles in. The only number that really matters here is if anyone posts the spread at 3 points, which Bovada has, albeit at inflated prices. That said, if you like the Rams here, it’s worth the additional 20 cents to get the key number.

Pinnacle:  Patriots -1.5 -112 / Rams +1.5 +101 | Over 58 +101/Under 58 -112
5Dimes: Patriots -2.5 -110 / Under 58 -110
Bovada:  Patriots -3 +110 / Rams +3 -130 | OU 58 -110
Moneyline: Patriots -127 to -135 / Rams +113 to +125

1st Half Spread & Total

First half odds allow you to bet only on the first half of the game.  The results are based on the score at halftime, regardless of what the final score ends up being.

1st Half Spread:  Patriots -0.5 -110
1st Half Total:  Over 28 +100 / Under 28 -120
1st Half Moneyline:  Patriots -125 / Rams +105

Super Bowl Props

By now everyone is familiar with the crazy props available on the Super Bowl each year.  You can bet on just about anything.  The length of the National Anthem, the coin flip, how many passing yards each quarterback will have, how many times the announcers will say certain words, etc., etc.  I’ve posted some of my favorites from Bovada below, however, there are simply too many to list here.

Donald Trump Tweets on February 3rd
Over 6 -120
Under 6 -120
Will a non-Quarterback throw a touchdown?
Yes +350
No -600
Which commercial will appear first?
Coke -170
Pepsi +130
Will either kicker hit the upright or crossbar?
Yes +375
No -650

And so on…Sign up for an account and you can bet on any of these props, and many, many more, should you feel you have and advantage on any of them.

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