NFL futures odds are best described as the “odds to win the Super Bowl”. These are the odds given to each team based on the probability they will win the Super Bowl. As the season progresses the lines are updated to give a clear picture of who the favorite or favorites to win are.
After 50 years of waiting, the Kansas City Chiefs are the Super Bowl LIV Champions! The Chiefs came back from a 10-20 deficit in the fourth quarter to defeat the San Francisco 49ers. Almost immediately after the game, the odds per posted for next year’s big game. It should come as no surprise that the Chiefs are listed as the favorites. They have a great young quarterback in Patrick Mahomes, plus a ton of young, fast talent around him that should make them contenders for years to come.
Here’s a look at the projected division winners and playoff matchups given the current market odds.
AFC East: Patriots
AFC North: Ravens
AFC South: Titans
AFC West: Chiefs
NFC East: Eagles/Cowboys [Tie]
NFC North: Packers
NFC South: Saints
NFC West: 49ers
Chiefs vs Ravens
Saints vs 49ers
Chiefs vs Ravens
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs are set as the odds-on favorites, with the Ravens being their top contenders out of the AFC. The defending NFC Champion 49ers are the favorites to get back to the Super Bowl next season, with their top contenders listed as the Saints. These odds are very likely to change with free agency and the results of the NFL Draft, so be sure to check back and see how those events impact the market.
The change column represents how much the odds have moved since the last time they were updated. The MOV included is that team’s average margin of victory, which is sometimes helpful in creating your own spread on a game. The Odds column are the latest odds from BetOnline. The Super Bowl column represents the implied no-vig probability that each team will win the big game.
| Team | 2019 Record | Division | 2019 MOV | Odds | Change | Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | 12-4-0 | AFC West | 9.7 | +600 | -100 | 10.98% |
| Ravens | 14-2-0 | AFC North | 13.7 | +700 | None | 9.61% |
| Patriots | 12-4-0 | AFC East | 11.1 | +1000 | -100 | 6.99% |
| 49ers | 13-3-0 | NFC West | 11.3 | +1000 | -200 | 6.99% |
| Saints | 13-3-0 | NFC South | 6.5 | +1200 | +400 | 5.91% |
| Eagles | 9-7-0 | NFC East | 1.4 | +1400 | +400 | 5.13% |
| Packers | 13-3-0 | NFC North | 4.0 | +1600 | +200 | 4.52% |
| Cowboys | 8-8-0 | NFC East | 7.1 | +2000 | -200 | 3.66% |
| Texans | 10-6-0 | AFC South | -1.3 | +2000 | +1300 | 3.66% |
| Seahawks | 11-5-0 | NFC West | 0.6 | +2000 | +200 | 3.66% |
| Chargers | 5-11-0 | AFC West | -0.5 | +2500 | +300 | 2.96% |
| Rams | 9-7-0 | NFC West | 1.9 | +2500 | None | 2.96% |
| Titans | 9-7-0 | AFC South | 5.2 | +2500 | None | 2.96% |
| Bills | 10-6-0 | AFC East | 3.1 | +3300 | +700 | 2.26% |
| Bears | 8-8-0 | NFC North | -1.1 | +3300 | None | 2.26% |
| Browns | 6-10-0 | AFC North | -3.6 | +3300 | None | 2.26% |
| Raiders | 7-9-0 | AFC West | -6.6 | +3300 | None | 2.26% |
| Vikings | 10-6-0 | NFC North | 5.2 | +3300 | -800 | 2.26% |
| Steelers | 8-8-0 | AFC North | -0.9 | +3300 | -1100 | 2.26% |
| Falcons | 7-9-0 | NFC South | -1.1 | +4000 | -700 | 1.88% |
| Colts | 7-9-0 | AFC South | -0.8 | +4000 | -700 | 1.88% |
| Buccaneers | 7-9-0 | NFC South | 0.6 | +4000 | +2600 | 1.88% |
| Cardinals | 5-10-1 | NFC West | -5.1 | +5000 | +3000 | 1.51% |
| Giants | 4-12-0 | NFC East | -6.9 | +5000 | +1600 | 1.51% |
| Jets | 7-9-0 | AFC East | -5.2 | +5000 | +1600 | 1.51% |
| Broncos | 7-9-0 | AFC West | -2.1 | +6600 | -1600 | 1.15% |
| Lions | 3-12-1 | NFC North | -5.1 | +6600 | None | 1.15% |
| Panthers | 5-11-0 | NFC South | -8.1 | +8000 | -1400 | 0.95% |
| Bengals | 2-14-0 | AFC North | -8.8 | +10000 | -2000 | 0.76% |
| Jaguars | 6-10-0 | AFC South | -6.1 | +10000 | -2000 | 0.76% |
| Dolphins | 5-11-0 | AFC East | -11.8 | +10000 | None | 0.76% |
| Redskins | 3-13-0 | NFC East | -10.6 | +10000 | None | 0.76% |
The term “Vegas Odds” has come to encompass any betting line on the game, but it is important to remember that Vegas odds can differ from lines you might see online or from a local bookie.
The “opener” is represents the first crack that oddsmakers take at giving what they think is a fair market price on each team. Once this is set and money starts to come in on different bets, books adjust and the lines eventually settle in.
For the Vegas odds we took a look at the major sportsbooks and found the the majority agreed with the odds at Caesar’s Palace, but that a few books (e.g. Westgate & Station Casino) have adjusted by a half point. The total has moved significantly all the way up to 55 in a lot of spots.
You won’t find much more variety at offshore books right now. Granted, there isn’t much difference between a 1 and 1.5 line in the NFL, so it’s not surprising to see. The only number that really matters here is if anyone posts the spread at 3 points, which is virtually guaranteed not to happen in this situation.
First half odds allow you to bet only on the first half of the game. The results are based on the score at halftime, regardless of what the final score ends up being.
By now everyone is familiar with the crazy props available on the Super Bowl each year. You can bet on just about anything. The length of the National Anthem, the coin flip, how many passing yards each quarterback will have, how many times the announcers will say certain words, etc., etc. I’ve posted some of my favorites from Bovada below, however, there are simply too many to list here.
And so on…Sign up for an account and you can bet on any of these props, and many, many more, should you feel you have and advantage on any of them.