Las Vegas Favorites & Each Teams Odds to Win Super Bowl 54 in 2020

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NFL futures odds are best described as the “odds to win the Super Bowl”.  These are the odds given to each team based on the probability they will win the Super Bowl.  As the season progresses the lines are updated to give a clear picture of who the favorite or favorites to win are.

The Super Bowl LIII winners were the New England Patriots. The Pats defeated the Rams by a final score of 13-3 in one of the most unusual Super Bowls of all-time.

The Conference Championship matchups are now set and the odds to win the Super Bowl have undergone some significant changes. The biggest jump came from the Kansas City Chiefs, who fell behind 0-24 last week against the Titans, then mounted one of the most impressive comebacks in NFL history and ran away with a 51-31 victory when all was said and done.

Further strengthening the Chiefs’ position was the result in the other AFC Divisional round game. The Ravens entered the game as the odds-on favorites to win the Super Bowl, but were shocked by Tennessee Titans, who earned a 28-12 victory thanks in large part to a dominating performance by RB Derrick Henry who carried the ball 30 times for 195 yards.

The results in the NFC were more along the lines of what we expected to see. The 49ers were heavy favorites against the Vikings and coasted to a 27-10 victory. The Seahawks/Packers game was expected to be the closest of the matchups last weekend and it was. The Packers got up early and held the Seahawks off on route to a 28-23 win and a spot in the NFC Championship game.

Entering this week’s championship round the Chiefs are the favorites to win the title and they are expected to square off against the 49ers. Both teams are pretty heavy favorites in their games but, as we’ve seen, the favorites are not guaranteed to advance. The Packers can definitely get hot with Aaron Rodgers at QB and the Titans might be the most underrated team in the NFL this year.

Now, here’s a look at the division winners and projected rounds of the playoffs based on current market odds.

2019 Division Winners

AFC Division Winners

AFC East:  Patriots
AFC North:  Ravens
AFC South:  Texans
AFC West:  Chiefs

NFC Division Winners

NFC East:  Eagles
NFC North:  Packers
NFC South:  Saints
NFC West:  49ers

AFC Championship

Chiefs vs Titans

NFC Championship

Packers vs 49ers

Super Bowl Projections

Super Bowl Matchup

Chiefs vs 49ers

Winner

Kansas City Chiefs

NFL Futures: Odds to Win Super Bowl 54 (LIV)

The change column represents how much the odds have moved since the last time they were updated.  The MOV included is that team’s average margin of victory, which is sometimes helpful in creating your own spread on a game.  The Odds column are the latest odds from BetOnline.  The Super Bowl column represents the implied no-vig probability that each team will win the big game.

Team 2019 Record Division 2019 MOV Odds Change Super Bowl
Chiefs 12-4-0 AFC West 9.6 +130 +220 41.49%
49ers 13-3-0 NFC West 10.9 +170 +180 35.35%
Packers 13-3-0 NFC North 4.0 +700 None 11.93%
Titans 9-7-0 AFC South 5.2 +750 +1250 11.23%

What Were the Vegas Odds on the Most Recent Super Bowl?

The term “Vegas Odds” has come to encompass any betting line on the game, but it is important to remember that Vegas odds can differ from lines you might see online or from a local bookie.

Super Bowl LIII Opening Betting Line

The “opener” is represents the first crack that oddsmakers take at giving what they think is a fair market price on each team.  Once this is set and money starts to come in on different bets, books adjust and the lines eventually settle in.

Opening Point Spread:  Patriots PK +105 / Rams PK -125
Opening Total:  Over 57.5 -110 / Under 57.5 -110
Opening Moneyline: Patriots +105/ Rams -125

Current Vegas Odds

For the Vegas odds we took a look at the major sportsbooks and found the the majority agreed with the odds at Caesar’s Palace, but that a few books (e.g. Westgate & Station Casino) have adjusted by a half point.  The total has moved a half point as well in some spots, but can be found at 57.5 at most shops.

Caesar’s Palace (consensus):  Patriots -2 -110
Westgate/Station:  Patriots -1.5 -110
Consensus Over/Under:  57.5 -110
Westgate/Station Over/Under: 58 -110
Moneyline:  Patriots -130 to -135 / Rams +110 to +115

Current Offshore Odds

You will find much more variety at offshore books right now, which don’t have a strong consensus. Granted, there isn’t much difference between a 1.5 and 2.5 line in the NFL, so take these early fluctuations with a grain of salt while the line settles in. The only number that really matters here is if anyone posts the spread at 3 points, which Bovada has, albeit at inflated prices. That said, if you like the Rams here, it’s worth the additional 20 cents to get the key number.

Pinnacle:  Patriots -1.5 -112 / Rams +1.5 +101 | Over 58 +101/Under 58 -112
5Dimes: Patriots -2.5 -110 / Under 58 -110
Bovada:  Patriots -3 +110 / Rams +3 -130 | OU 58 -110
Moneyline: Patriots -127 to -135 / Rams +113 to +125

1st Half Spread & Total

First half odds allow you to bet only on the first half of the game.  The results are based on the score at halftime, regardless of what the final score ends up being.

1st Half Spread:  Patriots -0.5 -110
1st Half Total:  Over 28 +100 / Under 28 -120
1st Half Moneyline:  Patriots -125 / Rams +105

Super Bowl Props

By now everyone is familiar with the crazy props available on the Super Bowl each year.  You can bet on just about anything.  The length of the National Anthem, the coin flip, how many passing yards each quarterback will have, how many times the announcers will say certain words, etc., etc.  I’ve posted some of my favorites from Bovada below, however, there are simply too many to list here.

Donald Trump Tweets on February 3rd
Over 6 -120
Under 6 -120
Will a non-Quarterback throw a touchdown?
Yes +350
No -600
Which commercial will appear first?
Coke -170
Pepsi +130
Will either kicker hit the upright or crossbar?
Yes +375
No -650

And so on…Sign up for an account and you can bet on any of these props, and many, many more, should you feel you have and advantage on any of them.

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