NFL futures odds are best described as the “odds to win the Super Bowl”. These are the odds given to each team based on the probability they will win the Super Bowl. As the season progresses the lines are updated to give a clear picture of who the favorite or favorites to win are.
The Super Bowl LIII winners were the New England Patriots. The Pats defeated the Rams by a final score of 13-3 in one of the most unusual Super Bowls of all-time.
After the opening week of the season, the Patriots are once again the odds-on favorites to win the Super Bowl. The Pats looked impressive in their win over the Steelers last week, plus they added wide receiver Antonio Brown, though he may not be able to play any time soon due to the recently announced sexual assault/rape lawsuit. Despite that news, expect New England to remain the favorites.
The team near the top hit the hardest by their Week 1 results are the Browns. Many thought this was the year for the Browns to turn things around, however, they looked awful in a 30-point loss and are now tied with the Ravens as the favorites to win the AFC North. The Cowboys and Vikings also made big moves this week with their victories.
The Dolphins were already expected to have a down year, but their 49-point loss to the Ravens has pushed them well below any other team in terms of probability to win the Super Bowl this season.
Now, here’s a look at the implied division winners and playoffs based on current market odds.
North: Browns/Ravens (tie)
West: Chiefs
East: Patriots
South: Texans
Conference Champion: Patriots
North: Bears
West: Rams
East: Eagles
South: Saints
Conference Champion: Saints
Matchup: Patriots vs Saints
SB LIV Winner: New England Patriots
The change column represents how much the odds have moved since the last time they were updated. The MOV included is that team’s average margin of victory, which is sometimes helpful in creating your own spread on a game. The Odds column are the latest odds from BetOnline. The Super Bowl column represents the implied no-vig probability that each team will win the big game.
| Team | 2019 Record | Division | 2019 MOV | Odds | Change | Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | 1-0-0 | AFC East | 30.0 | +400 | +400 | 15.32% |
| Chiefs | 1-0-0 | AFC West | 14.0 | +700 | +100 | 9.58% |
| Saints | 1-0-0 | NFC South | 2.0 | +800 | +200 | 8.51% |
| Rams | 1-0-0 | NFC West | 3.0 | +1200 | +200 | 5.89% |
| Eagles | 1-0-0 | NFC East | 5.0 | +1200 | None | 5.89% |
| Chargers | 1-0-0 | AFC West | 6.0 | +1400 | None | 5.11% |
| Cowboys | 1-0-0 | NFC East | 18.0 | +1600 | +1200 | 4.51% |
| Packers | 1-0-0 | NFC North | 7.0 | +1600 | +400 | 4.51% |
| Vikings | 1-0-0 | NFC North | 16.0 | +1600 | +1200 | 4.51% |
| Bears | 0-1-0 | NFC North | -7.0 | +2000 | -400 | 3.65% |
| Ravens | 1-0-0 | AFC North | 49.0 | +2500 | +800 | 2.95% |
| Browns | 0-1-0 | AFC North | -30.0 | +2500 | -700 | 2.95% |
| 49ers | 1-0-0 | NFC West | 14.0 | +2500 | +1500 | 2.95% |
| Seahawks | 1-0-0 | NFC West | 1.0 | +2500 | +800 | 2.95% |
| Texans | 0-1-0 | AFC South | -2.0 | +2800 | None | 2.64% |
| Steelers | 0-1-0 | AFC North | -30.0 | +2800 | -600 | 2.64% |
| Titans | 1-0-0 | AFC South | 30.0 | +3300 | +4700 | 2.25% |
| Falcons | 0-1-0 | NFC South | -16.0 | +4000 | -700 | 1.87% |
| Panthers | 0-1-0 | NFC South | -3.0 | +5000 | -1000 | 1.50% |
| Bills | 1-0-0 | AFC East | 1.0 | +6600 | +3400 | 1.14% |
| Colts | 0-1-0 | AFC South | -6.0 | +6600 | -1600 | 1.14% |
| Jaguars | 0-1-0 | AFC South | -14.0 | +6600 | -1600 | 1.14% |
| Jets | 0-1-0 | AFC East | -1.0 | +8000 | -1400 | 0.95% |
| Cardinals | 0-0-1 | NFC West | 0.0 | +10000 | +5000 | 0.76% |
| Broncos | 0-1-0 | AFC West | -8.0 | +10000 | -2000 | 0.76% |
| Lions | 0-0-1 | NFC North | 0.0 | +10000 | None | 0.76% |
| Giants | 0-1-0 | NFC East | -18.0 | +10000 | -2000 | 0.76% |
| Raiders | 1-0-0 | AFC West | 8.0 | +10000 | None | 0.76% |
| Bengals | 0-1-0 | AFC North | -1.0 | +15000 | None | 0.51% |
| Bucs | 0-1-0 | NFC South | -14.0 | +15000 | -2500 | 0.51% |
| Redskins | 0-1-0 | NFC East | -5.0 | +15000 | None | 0.51% |
| Dolphins | 0-1-0 | AFC East | -49.0 | +50000 | -25000 | 0.15% |
The term “Vegas Odds” has come to encompass any betting line on the game, but it is important to remember that Vegas odds can differ from lines you might see online or from a local bookie.
The “opener” is represents the first crack that oddsmakers take at giving what they think is a fair market price on each team. Once this is set and money starts to come in on different bets, books adjust and the lines eventually settle in.
For the Vegas odds we took a look at the major sportsbooks and found the the majority agreed with the odds at Caesar’s Palace, but that a few books (e.g. Westgate & Station Casino) have adjusted by a half point. The total has moved a half point as well in some spots, but can be found at 57.5 at most shops.
You will find much more variety at offshore books right now, which don’t have a strong consensus. Granted, there isn’t much difference between a 1.5 and 2.5 line in the NFL, so take these early fluctuations with a grain of salt while the line settles in. The only number that really matters here is if anyone posts the spread at 3 points, which Bovada has, albeit at inflated prices. That said, if you like the Rams here, it’s worth the additional 20 cents to get the key number.
First half odds allow you to bet only on the first half of the game. The results are based on the score at halftime, regardless of what the final score ends up being.
By now everyone is familiar with the crazy props available on the Super Bowl each year. You can bet on just about anything. The length of the National Anthem, the coin flip, how many passing yards each quarterback will have, how many times the announcers will say certain words, etc., etc. I’ve posted some of my favorites from Bovada below, however, there are simply too many to list here.
And so on…Sign up for an account and you can bet on any of these props, and many, many more, should you feel you have and advantage on any of them.