NFL odds to win the Super Bowl refer to the probability of a team winning the championship. These odds are usually released months before the Super Bowl is set to take place, and the sportsbook will continue to update the odds as the season progresses. The team with the lowest odds is considered the favorite to win the Super Bowl.
We’ve also included each team’s margin of victory this season. While not 100% correlated to how strong a team is, it is a great baseline for establishing the strength of a team or modeling your own power rankings for the NFL.
The Change column indicates how much each team’s odds have moved and in which direction since the last time they were updated. This shows how the market reacts week to week and can be useful when betting in-season futures odds if the market overreacts to a team’s result.
Our Super Bowl column in the table below indicates the true probability implied by the odds. This is different from simply converting the odds to a probability as we have taken out the sportsbook’s margin so that the sum of all probabilities equals 100%. You can use this to your advantage by shopping futures odds. If a team you like to win the Super Bowl this season is being offered at odds that imply a lower probability than the percentage we have listed, that wager would have a positive expected value.
Something you may also want to consider with NFL futures like this is how long your money will be tied up. This is money you could be using to bet throughout the season, so you will want to make sure you are getting enough value out of your wager to justify taking that money out of your bankroll for so long.
| Team | 2022 Record | Division | 2022 MOV | Odds | Change | Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eagles | 14-3-0 | NFC East | 9.9 | -120 | +645 | 52.17% |
| Chiefs | 14-3-0 | AFC West | 7.2 | +100 | +360 | 47.83% |