NFL futures odds are best described as the “odds to win the Super Bowl”. These are the odds given to each team based on the probability they will win the Super Bowl. As the season progresses the lines are updated to give a clear picture of who the favorite or favorites to win are.
Your Super Bowl LIII winners weret the New England Patriots. The Pats defeated the Rams by a final score of 13-3 in one of the most unusual Super Bowls of all-time.
After the draft, the Patriots are once again the odds-on favorite to win it all. Their top contender in the AFC is expected to be the Kansas City Chiefs with either the Saints or Rams having the best odds to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.
Here’s a look at the implied division winners and playoff picture based on these latest odds.
North: Browns
West: Chiefs
East: Patriots
South: Colts
Conference Champion: Patriots
North: Bears
West: Rams
East: Eagles
South: Saints
Conference Champion: Saints/Chiefs
Matchup: Patriots vs Saints/Chiefs
SB LIV Winner: New England Patriots
The change column represents how much the odds have moved since the last time they were updated. The MOV included is that team’s average margin of victory, which is sometimes helpful in creating your own spread on a game. The Odds column are the latest odds from BetOnline. The Super Bowl column represents the implied no-vig probability that each team will win the big game.
| Team | 2018 Record | Division | 2018 MOV | Odds | Change | Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | 11-5-0 | AFC East | 7.2 | +800 | -200 | 8.80% |
| Chiefs | 12-4-0 | AFC West | 8.7 | +1000 | -300 | 7.20% |
| Rams | 13-3-0 | NFC West | 8.6 | +1000 | None | 7.20% |
| Saints | 13-3-0 | NFC South | 8.6 | +1000 | -200 | 7.20% |
| Browns | 7-8-1 | AFC North | -2.1 | +1400 | None | 5.28% |
| Chargers | 12-4-0 | AFC West | 5.1 | +1400 | +200 | 5.28% |
| Eagles | 9-7-0 | NFC East | 0.8 | +1400 | +200 | 5.28% |
| Bears | 12-4-0 | NFC North | 8.1 | +1600 | -400 | 4.66% |
| Colts | 10-6-0 | AFC South | 4.7 | +1600 | None | 4.66% |
| Packers | 6-9-1 | NFC North | -1.5 | +2200 | None | 3.44% |
| Cowboys | 10-6-0 | NFC East | 0.5 | +2500 | None | 3.05% |
| Texans | 11-5-0 | AFC South | 4.2 | +2500 | None | 3.05% |
| Vikings | 8-7-1 | NFC North | 1.2 | +2500 | -500 | 3.05% |
| Steelers | 9-6-1 | AFC North | 4.2 | +2500 | None | 3.05% |
| 49ers | 4-12-0 | NFC West | -5.8 | +2500 | None | 3.05% |
| Falcons | 7-9-0 | NFC South | -0.6 | +3300 | None | 2.33% |
| Ravens | 10-6-0 | AFC North | 5.6 | +3300 | +700 | 2.33% |
| Jaguars | 5-11-0 | AFC South | -4.4 | +3300 | None | 2.33% |
| Seahawks | 10-6-0 | NFC West | 4.6 | +3300 | None | 2.33% |
| Raiders | 4-12-0 | AFC West | -11.1 | +4000 | None | 1.93% |
| Panthers | 7-9-0 | NFC South | -0.4 | +5000 | -1000 | 1.55% |
| Broncos | 6-10-0 | AFC West | -1.2 | +5000 | None | 1.55% |
| Giants | 5-11-0 | NFC East | -2.7 | +5000 | None | 1.55% |
| Jets | 4-12-0 | AFC East | -6.8 | +5000 | None | 1.55% |
| Titans | 9-7-0 | AFC South | 0.4 | +5000 | +1600 | 1.55% |
| Bills | 6-10-0 | AFC East | -6.6 | +6600 | None | 1.18% |
| Lions | 6-10-0 | NFC North | -2.2 | +6600 | None | 1.18% |
| Bucs | 5-11-0 | NFC South | -4.2 | +6600 | None | 1.18% |
| Cardinals | 3-13-0 | NFC West | -12.5 | +8000 | +2000 | 0.98% |
| Bengals | 6-10-0 | AFC North | -5.4 | +10000 | -2000 | 0.78% |
| Redskins | 7-9-0 | NFC East | -4.9 | +10000 | -2000 | 0.78% |
| Dolphins | 7-9-0 | AFC East | -7.1 | +12500 | -2500 | 0.63% |
The term “Vegas Odds” has come to encompass any betting line on the game, but it is important to remember that Vegas odds can differ from lines you might see online or from a local bookie.
The “opener” is represents the first crack that oddsmakers take at giving what they think is a fair market price on each team. Once this is set and money starts to come in on different bets, books adjust and the lines eventually settle in.
For the Vegas odds we took a look at the major sportsbooks and found the the majority agreed with the odds at Caesar’s Palace, but that a few books (e.g. Westgate & Station Casino) have adjusted by a half point. The total has moved a half point as well in some spots, but can be found at 57.5 at most shops.
You will find much more variety at offshore books right now, which don’t have a strong consensus. Granted, there isn’t much difference between a 1.5 and 2.5 line in the NFL, so take these early fluctuations with a grain of salt while the line settles in. The only number that really matters here is if anyone posts the spread at 3 points, which Bovada has, albeit at inflated prices. That said, if you like the Rams here, it’s worth the additional 20 cents to get the key number.
First half odds allow you to bet only on the first half of the game. The results are based on the score at halftime, regardless of what the final score ends up being.
By now everyone is familiar with the crazy props available on the Super Bowl each year. You can bet on just about anything. The length of the National Anthem, the coin flip, how many passing yards each quarterback will have, how many times the announcers will say certain words, etc., etc. I’ve posted some of my favorites from Bovada below, however, there are simply too many to list here.
And so on…Sign up for an account and you can bet on any of these props, and many, many more, should you feel you have and advantage on any of them.