The Philadelphia Eagles are Super Bowl Champions after an incredible 41-33 performance against the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LII. Almost immediately after the game, oddsmakers were quick to release their odds for next year. They’ve since been updated several times.
NFL futures odds are best described as the “odds to win the Super Bowl”. These are the odds given to each team based on the probability they will win the Super Bowl. As the season progresses the lines are updated to give a clear picture of who the favorite or favorites to win are.
According to the last update at BetOnline, the Rams and the Saints are now tied with the best odds to win the Super Bowl at +400 (4 to 1 odds). These are the two best teams in the NFC right now and at this point in the season it would be surprising if one or the other did not represent their conference in the big game. Their most likely opponent as of this latest update is the Kansas City Chiefs out of the AFC. The Patriots and Steelers are also projected to contend.
Of the teams with a real shot at making the Super Bowl, the Patriots odds took the biggest hit with their blowout loss to the Titans. They are now +800 to win the championship. The Saints and Steelers were the biggest winners this week. Both teams put up over 50 points and won in convincing fashion, so this shouldn’t come as much of a surprise. The Bears also looked good this week and saw the biggest improvement (+300) of any team in the top quarter of the league.
The weirdest behavior in the betting market right now is that for the best team in the NFC East. The Eagles at just 4-5 are tied with the 6-3 Redskins, and both are just in from of the 4-5 Cowboys. It’s clear from these odds that this division is still very much a toss up. Only the 2-7 Giants (+25000) are likely out of this race.
Now let’s look at the projected division winners and the odds for every team to win Super Bowl 53.
These are the projected winners for each division as predicted by the latest odds update.
AFC East: Patriots
AFC North: Steelers
AFC South: Texans
AFC West: Chiefs
NFC East: Eagles
NFC North: Vikings
NFC South: Saints
NFC West: Rams
AFC Championship Matchup: Chiefs vs Patriots
NFC Championship Matchup: Rams vs Saints
Super Bowl Matchup Projection: Chiefs vs Rams/Saints [tie]
Projected SB LIII Winner: Los Angeles Rams/Saints [tie]
The change column represents how much the odds have moved since the last time they were updated. Our power index estimates the point advantage or disadvantage each team has against an approximately average NFL team on a neutral field. The Odds column are the latest odds from BetOnline. The Super Bowl column represents the implied, normalized probability that team will win the Super Bowl.
| Team | 2018 Record | Division | 2018 MOV | Odds | Change | Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rams | 9-1-0 | NFC West | 10.4 | +400 | -50 | 15.91% |
| Saints | 8-1-0 | NFC South | 10.9 | +400 | +100 | 15.91% |
| Chiefs | 9-1-0 | AFC West | 11.3 | +475 | +75 | 13.83% |
| Patriots | 7-3-0 | AFC East | 4.4 | +800 | -250 | 8.84% |
| Steelers | 6-2-1 | AFC North | 7.8 | +900 | +100 | 7.95% |
| Chargers | 7-2-0 | AFC West | 6.0 | +1400 | None | 5.30% |
| Vikings | 5-3-1 | NFC North | 1.9 | +2000 | -400 | 3.79% |
| Bears | 6-3-0 | NFC North | 10.4 | +2200 | +300 | 3.46% |
| Texans | 6-3-0 | AFC South | 3.6 | +2500 | None | 3.06% |
| Panthers | 6-3-0 | NFC South | 1.0 | +3300 | -1300 | 2.34% |
| Packers | 4-4-1 | NFC North | 0.8 | +3300 | +1700 | 2.34% |
| Eagles | 4-5-0 | NFC East | 1.7 | +3300 | -1100 | 2.34% |
| Redskins | 6-3-0 | NFC East | 0.1 | +3300 | +3300 | 2.34% |
| Cowboys | 4-5-0 | NFC East | 1.1 | +4000 | +4000 | 1.94% |
| Ravens | 4-5-0 | AFC North | 5.9 | +5000 | -1000 | 1.56% |
| Colts | 4-5-0 | AFC South | 2.3 | +5000 | +10000 | 1.56% |
| Titans | 5-4-0 | AFC South | 1.9 | +5000 | +1600 | 1.56% |
| Falcons | 4-5-0 | NFC South | -1.1 | +8000 | -4700 | 0.98% |
| Bengals | 5-4-0 | AFC North | -5.9 | +8000 | -3000 | 0.98% |
| Seahawks | 4-5-0 | NFC West | 3.0 | +8000 | None | 0.98% |
| Jaguars | 3-6-0 | AFC South | -4.3 | +10000 | -3400 | 0.79% |
| Browns | 3-6-1 | AFC North | -4.5 | +15000 | +35000 | 0.53% |
| Dolphins | 5-5-0 | AFC East | -5.7 | +15000 | None | 0.53% |
| Giants | 2-7-0 | NFC East | -5.7 | +25000 | +25000 | 0.32% |
| Bills | 3-7-0 | AFC East | -11.4 | +50000 | +50000 | 0.16% |
| Broncos | 3-6-0 | AFC West | -0.9 | +50000 | -25000 | 0.16% |
| Lions | 3-6-0 | NFC North | -4.7 | +50000 | -25000 | 0.16% |
| Bucs | 3-6-0 | NFC South | -6.6 | +50000 | None | 0.16% |
| Cardinals | 2-7-0 | NFC West | -11.2 | +100000 | -50000 | 0.08% |
| Jets | 3-7-0 | AFC East | -4.6 | +100000 | -50000 | 0.08% |
| 49ers | 2-8-0 | NFC West | -3.6 | +100000 | -50000 | 0.08% |
The term “Vegas Odds” has come to encompass any betting line on the game, but it is important to remember that Vegas odds can differ from lines you might see online or from a local bookie.
The “opener” is represents the first crack that oddsmakers take at giving what they think is a fair market price on each team. Once this is set and money starts to come in on different bets, books adjust and the lines eventually settle in.
For the Vegas odds we took a look at the major sportsbooks and found the the majority agreed with the odds at Caesar’s Palace, but that a few books (e.g. Westgate & Station Casino) had taken large wagers on the Eagles and had adjusted their lines further. The total has moved a point across the board in Vegas versus the opener, but it is uniform on and off the strip.
Much like the Vegas books, the majority of online books agree on this year’s spread, however, 5Dimes appears to be the outlier as of this posting. If you like the Patriots, you may want to grab an account as they have by far the best line available. There are also a few books (BetOnline being one) with a half-point different total than the consensus, however they have adjusted the vig so that it is essentially the same wager.
First half odds allow you to bet only on the first half of the game. The results are based on the score at halftime, regardless of what the final score ends up being.
By now everyone is familiar with the crazy props available on the Super Bowl each year. You can bet on just about anything. The length of the National Anthem, the coin flip, how many passing yards each quarterback will have, how many times the announcers will say certain words, etc., etc. I’ve posted some of my favorites from 5Dimes below, however, there are simply too many to list here.
And so on…Sign up for an account and you can bet on any of these props, and many, many more, should you feel you have and advantage on any of them.