NFL futures odds are best described as the “odds to win the Super Bowl”. These are the odds given to each team based on the probability they will win the Super Bowl. As the season progresses the lines are updated to give a clear picture of who the favorite or favorites to win are.
Your Super Bowl LIII winners are the New England Patriots. The Pats defeated the Rams by a final score of 13-3 in one of the most unusual Super Bowls of all-time. There were already odds to win next year’s Super Bowl before the game was over, but we’ll start our tracking for the year today, the day after the game completed.
As you’ll see, New England is the favorite to win the title again next year, but I think that could change as we find out more about what their roster will look like for the upcoming season. All of the top contenders from last year are included at the top of the odds with the Chiefs, Rams, and Saints all expected to make a run again next year. As the odds stand, the Rams and Patriots are projected to return to the Super Bowl next season. We know from history that this is extremely unlikely, but it’s common for the winner and loser to be projected early on to make it back to the big game.
Here’s a look at the implied division winners and playoff picture based on these latest odds.
North: Steelers
West: Chiefs
East: Patriots
South: Colts
Conference Champion: Patriots
North: Bears
West: Rams
East: Eagles
South: Saints
Conference Champion: Rams
Matchup: Patriots vs Rams
SB LIV Winner: New England Patriots
The change column represents how much the odds have moved since the last time they were updated. The MOV included is that team’s average margin of victory, which is sometimes helpful in creating your own spread on a game. The Odds column are the latest odds from BetOnline. The Super Bowl column represents the implied no-vig probability that each team will win the big game.
| Team | 2018 Record | Division | 2018 MOV | Odds | Change | Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | 11-5-0 | AFC East | 7.2 | +600 | New | 11.05% |
| Chiefs | 12-4-0 | AFC West | 8.7 | +700 | New | 9.66% |
| Rams | 13-3-0 | NFC West | 8.6 | +800 | New | 8.59% |
| Saints | 13-3-0 | NFC South | 8.6 | +900 | New | 7.73% |
| Bears | 12-4-0 | NFC North | 8.1 | +1400 | New | 5.15% |
| Colts | 10-6-0 | AFC South | 4.7 | +1400 | New | 5.15% |
| Packers | 6-9-1 | NFC North | -1.5 | +1800 | New | 4.07% |
| Vikings | 8-7-1 | NFC North | 1.2 | +1800 | New | 4.07% |
| Chargers | 12-4-0 | AFC West | 5.1 | +2000 | New | 3.68% |
| Eagles | 9-7-0 | NFC East | 0.8 | +2000 | New | 3.68% |
| Steelers | 9-6-1 | AFC North | 4.2 | +2200 | New | 3.36% |
| Falcons | 7-9-0 | NFC South | -0.6 | +2500 | New | 2.97% |
| Browns | 7-8-1 | AFC North | -2.1 | +2500 | New | 2.97% |
| Cowboys | 10-6-0 | NFC East | 0.5 | +2500 | New | 2.97% |
| Ravens | 10-6-0 | AFC North | 5.6 | +3300 | New | 2.27% |
| Texans | 11-5-0 | AFC South | 4.2 | +3300 | New | 2.27% |
| 49ers | 4-12-0 | NFC West | -5.8 | +3300 | New | 2.27% |
| Panthers | 7-9-0 | NFC South | -0.4 | +4000 | New | 1.89% |
| Jaguars | 5-11-0 | AFC South | -4.4 | +4000 | New | 1.89% |
| Giants | 5-11-0 | NFC East | -2.7 | +4000 | New | 1.89% |
| Seahawks | 10-6-0 | NFC West | 4.6 | +4000 | New | 1.89% |
| Titans | 9-7-0 | AFC South | 0.4 | +5000 | New | 1.52% |
| Bucs | 5-11-0 | NFC South | -4.2 | +6600 | New | 1.15% |
| Bills | 6-10-0 | AFC East | -6.6 | +8000 | New | 0.95% |
| Bengals | 6-10-0 | AFC North | -5.4 | +8000 | New | 0.95% |
| Broncos | 6-10-0 | AFC West | -1.2 | +8000 | New | 0.95% |
| Lions | 6-10-0 | NFC North | -2.2 | +8000 | New | 0.95% |
| Redskins | 7-9-0 | NFC East | -4.9 | +8000 | New | 0.95% |
| Cardinals | 3-13-0 | NFC West | -12.5 | +10000 | New | 0.77% |
| Dolphins | 7-9-0 | AFC East | -7.1 | +10000 | New | 0.77% |
| Jets | 4-12-0 | AFC East | -6.8 | +10000 | New | 0.77% |
| Raiders | 4-12-0 | AFC West | -11.1 | +10000 | New | 0.77% |
The term “Vegas Odds” has come to encompass any betting line on the game, but it is important to remember that Vegas odds can differ from lines you might see online or from a local bookie.
The “opener” is represents the first crack that oddsmakers take at giving what they think is a fair market price on each team. Once this is set and money starts to come in on different bets, books adjust and the lines eventually settle in.
For the Vegas odds we took a look at the major sportsbooks and found the the majority agreed with the odds at Caesar’s Palace, but that a few books (e.g. Westgate & Station Casino) have adjusted by a half point. The total has moved a half point as well in some spots, but can be found at 57.5 at most shops.
You will find much more variety at offshore books right now, which don’t have a strong consensus. Granted, there isn’t much difference between a 1.5 and 2.5 line in the NFL, so take these early fluctuations with a grain of salt while the line settles in. The only number that really matters here is if anyone posts the spread at 3 points, which Bovada has, albeit at inflated prices. That said, if you like the Rams here, it’s worth the additional 20 cents to get the key number.
First half odds allow you to bet only on the first half of the game. The results are based on the score at halftime, regardless of what the final score ends up being.
By now everyone is familiar with the crazy props available on the Super Bowl each year. You can bet on just about anything. The length of the National Anthem, the coin flip, how many passing yards each quarterback will have, how many times the announcers will say certain words, etc., etc. I’ve posted some of my favorites from Bovada below, however, there are simply too many to list here.
And so on…Sign up for an account and you can bet on any of these props, and many, many more, should you feel you have and advantage on any of them.