The Philadelphia Eagles are defending Super Bowl Champions this year after an incredible 41-33 performance against the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LII. Almost immediately after the game, oddsmakers were quick to release their odds for next year. They are now updated after the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs.
NFL futures odds are best described as the “odds to win the Super Bowl”. These are the odds given to each team based on the probability they will win the Super Bowl. As the season progresses the lines are updated to give a clear picture of who the favorite or favorites to win are.
According to the last update at BetOnline, the New Orleans Saints are still the favorites to win Super Bowl 53. Their most likely opponent out of the AFC right now are the Kansas City Chiefs.
Of the teams left in the field, the Patriots saw the biggest improvement in their odds. This shouldn’t be surprising. The Pats came out and looked unstoppable early against the Chargers on their way to a very convincing victory. The Chiefs are still the favorites to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, but the odds have narrowed significantly. For those looking for value on futures, both the Saints at +175 and Chiefs at +150 have a positive expected value based on the projected odds for the different possible Super Bowl matchups.
Super Bowl Matchup Projection: Chiefs vs Saints
Projected SB LIII Winner: New Orleans Saints
The change column represents how much the odds have moved since the last time they were updated. The MOV included is that team’s average margin of victory, which is sometimes helpful in creating your own spread on a game. The Odds column are the latest odds from BetOnline. The Super Bowl column represents the implied, normalized probability that team will win the Super Bowl.
| Team | 2018 Record | Division | 2018 MOV | Odds | Change | Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saints | 13-3-0 | NFC South | 9.2 | +175 | +75 | 33.24% |
| Chiefs | 12-4-0 | AFC West | 9.5 | +250 | +150 | 26.12% |
| Patriots | 11-5-0 | AFC East | 7.3 | +340 | +260 | 20.77% |
| Rams | 13-3-0 | NFC West | 8.9 | +360 | +90 | 19.87% |
The term “Vegas Odds” has come to encompass any betting line on the game, but it is important to remember that Vegas odds can differ from lines you might see online or from a local bookie.
The “opener” is represents the first crack that oddsmakers take at giving what they think is a fair market price on each team. Once this is set and money starts to come in on different bets, books adjust and the lines eventually settle in.
For the Vegas odds we took a look at the major sportsbooks and found the the majority agreed with the odds at Caesar’s Palace, but that a few books (e.g. Westgate & Station Casino) had taken large wagers on the Eagles and had adjusted their lines further. The total has moved a point across the board in Vegas versus the opener, but it is uniform on and off the strip.
Much like the Vegas books, the majority of online books agree on this year’s spread, however, 5Dimes appears to be the outlier as of this posting. If you like the Patriots, you may want to grab an account as they have by far the best line available. There are also a few books (BetOnline being one) with a half-point different total than the consensus, however they have adjusted the vig so that it is essentially the same wager.
First half odds allow you to bet only on the first half of the game. The results are based on the score at halftime, regardless of what the final score ends up being.
By now everyone is familiar with the crazy props available on the Super Bowl each year. You can bet on just about anything. The length of the National Anthem, the coin flip, how many passing yards each quarterback will have, how many times the announcers will say certain words, etc., etc. I’ve posted some of my favorites from 5Dimes below, however, there are simply too many to list here.
And so on…Sign up for an account and you can bet on any of these props, and many, many more, should you feel you have and advantage on any of them.