NFL futures odds are best described as the “odds to win the Super Bowl”. These are the odds given to each team based on the probability they will win the Super Bowl. As the season progresses the lines are updated to give a clear picture of who the favorite or favorites to win are.
The Super Bowl LIII winners were the New England Patriots. The Pats defeated the Rams by a final score of 13-3 in one of the most unusual Super Bowls of all-time.
For the first time in a long time, the New England Patriots aren’t the favorites to win the Super Bowl. In fact, they aren’t even the favorites to win the AFC Championship now that the Ravens have rattled off back-to-back wins over the Pats and 49ers.
Out of the NFC, the Saints are currently the favorites to rep the conference in the Super Bowl, but only by a slim margin over the Seahawks, 49ers, and Packers.
You may notice that this week there are only 26 teams with posted odds to win the Super Bowl. The Dolphins, Bengals, Lions, Cardinals, Falcons, and Giants are now mathematically eliminated from the postseason.
Now, here’s a look at the implied division winners and playoffs based on current market odds.
AFC East: Patriots
AFC North: Ravens
AFC South: Texans
AFC West: Chiefs
NFC East: Cowboys
NFC North: Packers
NFC South: Saints
NFC West: Seahawks
Patriots vs Ravens
Saints vs Seahawks
Ravens vs Saints
Baltimore Ravens
The change column represents how much the odds have moved since the last time they were updated. The MOV included is that team’s average margin of victory, which is sometimes helpful in creating your own spread on a game. The Odds column are the latest odds from BetOnline. The Super Bowl column represents the implied no-vig probability that each team will win the big game.
| Ravens | 10-2-0 | AFC North | 15.6 | +250 | +200 | 22.71% |
| Patriots | 10-2-0 | AFC East | 14.8 | +400 | -125 | 15.90% |
| Saints | 10-2-0 | NFC South | 4.2 | +600 | None | 11.35% |
| Seahawks | 10-2-0 | NFC West | 3.0 | +700 | +900 | 9.93% |
| Chiefs | 8-4-0 | AFC West | 6.9 | +800 | +100 | 8.83% |
| 49ers | 10-2-0 | NFC West | 13.8 | +900 | -200 | 7.95% |
| Packers | 9-3-0 | NFC North | 2.8 | +1600 | -400 | 4.68% |
| Cowboys | 6-6-0 | NFC East | 6.2 | +2500 | -900 | 3.06% |
| Texans | 8-4-0 | AFC South | 1.8 | +2800 | +1200 | 2.74% |
| Bills | 9-3-0 | AFC East | 5.8 | +3300 | +4700 | 2.34% |
| Vikings | 8-4-0 | NFC North | 6.4 | +3300 | -1700 | 2.34% |
| Eagles | 5-7-0 | NFC East | -0.8 | +5000 | -2500 | 1.56% |
| Titans | 7-5-0 | AFC South | 3.5 | +5000 | +5000 | 1.56% |
| Steelers | 7-5-0 | AFC North | 0.9 | +6600 | +5900 | 1.19% |
| Rams | 7-5-0 | NFC West | 2.8 | +8000 | -4700 | 0.98% |
| Bears | 6-6-0 | NFC North | 0.3 | +12500 | +2500 | 0.63% |
| Raiders | 6-6-0 | AFC West | -7.2 | +15000 | -10000 | 0.53% |
| Browns | 5-7-0 | AFC North | -2.2 | +25000 | -17000 | 0.32% |
| Broncos | 4-8-0 | AFC West | -3.2 | +25000 | None | 0.32% |
| Colts | 6-6-0 | AFC South | 0.3 | +25000 | -20000 | 0.32% |
| Bucs | 5-7-0 | NFC South | -0.5 | +25000 | +25000 | 0.32% |
| Chargers | 4-8-0 | AFC West | 0.2 | +50000 | -35000 | 0.16% |
| Panthers | 5-7-0 | NFC South | -3.3 | +100000 | -90000 | 0.08% |
| Jaguars | 4-8-0 | AFC South | -6.0 | +100000 | -85000 | 0.08% |
| Jets | 4-8-0 | AFC East | -6.3 | +100000 | None | 0.08% |
| Redskins | 3-9-0 | NFC East | -9.8 | +100000 | +900000 | 0.08% |
The term “Vegas Odds” has come to encompass any betting line on the game, but it is important to remember that Vegas odds can differ from lines you might see online or from a local bookie.
The “opener” is represents the first crack that oddsmakers take at giving what they think is a fair market price on each team. Once this is set and money starts to come in on different bets, books adjust and the lines eventually settle in.
For the Vegas odds we took a look at the major sportsbooks and found the the majority agreed with the odds at Caesar’s Palace, but that a few books (e.g. Westgate & Station Casino) have adjusted by a half point. The total has moved a half point as well in some spots, but can be found at 57.5 at most shops.
You will find much more variety at offshore books right now, which don’t have a strong consensus. Granted, there isn’t much difference between a 1.5 and 2.5 line in the NFL, so take these early fluctuations with a grain of salt while the line settles in. The only number that really matters here is if anyone posts the spread at 3 points, which Bovada has, albeit at inflated prices. That said, if you like the Rams here, it’s worth the additional 20 cents to get the key number.
First half odds allow you to bet only on the first half of the game. The results are based on the score at halftime, regardless of what the final score ends up being.
By now everyone is familiar with the crazy props available on the Super Bowl each year. You can bet on just about anything. The length of the National Anthem, the coin flip, how many passing yards each quarterback will have, how many times the announcers will say certain words, etc., etc. I’ve posted some of my favorites from Bovada below, however, there are simply too many to list here.
And so on…Sign up for an account and you can bet on any of these props, and many, many more, should you feel you have and advantage on any of them.