Las Vegas Favorites & Each Teams Odds to Win Super Bowl 53 in 2019

The Philadelphia Eagles are now Super Bowl Champions after an incredible 41-33 performance against the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LII.  Almost immediately after the game, oddsmakers were quick to release their odds for next year.

NFL futures odds are best described as the “odds to win the Super Bowl”.  These are the odds given to each team based on the probability they will win the Super Bowl.  As the season progresses the lines are updated to give a clear picture of who the favorite or favorites to win are.

According to 5Dimes, the New England Patriots (+610) are the favorites to win Super Bowl LIII, despite their losing effort against the Philadelphia Eagles (+875), who happen to be the second-favorite to win the Lombardi Trophy.

Projected Division Winners & Super Bowl Matchup

AFC East:  Patriots
AFC North:  Steelers
AFC South:  Texans
AFC West:  Chargers

NFC East:  Eagles
NFC North:  Vikings
NFC South:  Saints
NFC West:  Rams

Super Bowl Matchup:  Patriots vs Eagles

SB LIII Winner: New England Patriots

NFL Futures: Odds to Win Super Bowl 53 (LIII)

The change column represents how much the odds have moved since the last time they were updated.  Our power index estimates the point advantage or disadvantage each team has against an approximately average NFL team on a neutral field.  The Odds column are the latest odds from 5Dimes.  The Super Bowl column represents the implied, normalized probability that team will win the Super Bowl.

Team 2017 Record Division 2017 Power Index Odds Change Super Bowl
Patriots 13-3 AFC East 9.4 +610 None 12.66%
Eagles 13-3 NFC East 10.8 +875 None 9.22%
Steelers 13-3 AFC North 5.6 +1100 None 7.49%
Vikings 13-3 NFC North 5.8 +1275 None 6.54%
Rams 11-5 NFC West 8.0 +1300 None 6.42%
Packers 7-9 NFC North -4.0 +1400 None 5.99%
Texans 4-12 AFC South -6.1 +1800 None 4.73%
Saints 11-5 NFC South 6.8 +1900 None 4.49%
Falcons 10-6 NFC South 2.6 +2250 None 3.83%
Jaguars 10-6 AFC South 8.2 +2250 None 3.83%
Chargers 9-7 AFC West 5.2 +2500 None 3.46%
49ers 6-10 NFC West -3.2 +2750 None 3.15%
Cowboys 9-7 NFC East 1.4 +3300 None 2.64%
Chiefs 10-6 AFC West 4.4 +3500 None 2.50%
Raiders 6-10 AFC West -4.5 +3800 +600 2.30%
Broncos 5-11 AFC West -5.8 +4400 None 2.00%
Panthers 11-5 NFC South 1.8 +4400 -600 2.00%
Giants 3-13 NFC East -8.9 +4750 None 1.85%
Ravens 9-7 AFC North 5.8 +5500 None 1.61%
Titans 9-7 AFC South -2.3 +5500 None 1.61%
Lions 9-7 NFC North 2.1 +5500 None 1.61%
Seahawks 9-7 NFC West 2.1 +6000 None 1.47%
Bucs 5-11 NFC South -2.9 +7200 None 1.23%
Colts 4-12 AFC South -8.8 +7500 None 1.18%
Redskins 7-9 NFC East -2.9 +7500 None 1.18%
Bengals 7-9 AFC North -3.7 +10000 None 0.89%
Browns 0-16 AFC North -11.0 +10000 None 0.89%
Cardinals 8-8 NFC West -4.1 +11000 None 0.81%
Bills 9-7 AFC East -3.8 +12000 None 0.74%
Bears 5-11 NFC North -3.5 +14000 None 0.64%
Dolphins 6-10 AFC East -7.0 +15000 None 0.60%
Jets 5-11 AFC East -5.2 +20000 None 0.45%

What Were the Vegas Odds on the Most Recent Super Bowl?

The term “Vegas Odds” has come to encompass any betting line on the game, but it is important to remember that Vegas odds can differ from lines you might see online or from a local bookie.

Super Bowl LII Opening Betting Line

The “opener” is represents the first crack that oddsmakers take at giving what they think is a fair market price on each team.  Once this is set and money starts to come in on different bets, books adjust and the lines eventually settle in.

Opening Point Spread:  Patriots -6 +100 / Eagles +6 -110
Opening Total:  Over 47.5 +100 / Under 47.5 -110
Opening Moneyline: Eagles +193 / Patriots -215

Current Vegas Odds

For the Vegas odds we took a look at the major sportsbooks and found the the majority agreed with the odds at Caesar’s Palace, but that a few books (e.g. Westgate & Station Casino) had taken large wagers on the Eagles and had adjusted their lines further.  The total has moved a point across the board in Vegas versus the opener, but it is uniform on and off the strip.

Caesar’s Palace (consensus):  Patriots -4.5 -110
Westgate/Station:  Patriots -4 -110
Over/Under:  48.5 -110
Moneyline:  Patriots -180 to -190 / Eagles +155 to +165

Current Offshore Odds

Much like the Vegas books, the majority of online books agree on this year’s spread, however, 5Dimes appears to be the outlier as of this posting. If you like the Patriots, you may want to grab an account as they have by far the best line available.  There are also a few books (BetOnline being one) with a half-point different total than the consensus, however they have adjusted the vig so that it is essentially the same wager.

Bovada (consensus):  Patriots -4.5 -110 / OU 48.5 -110
5Dimes: Patriots -4 -109
BetOnline:  Over 48 -120 / Under 48 +100
Moneyline: Patriots -175 to -205 / Eagles +155 to +175

1st Half Spread & Total

First half odds allow you to bet only on the first half of the game.  The results are based on the score at halftime, regardless of what the final score ends up being.

1st Half Spread:  Patriots -2.5 -110
1st Half Total:  Over 24 +100 / Under 24 -120
1st Half Moneyline:  Patriots -165 / Eagles +145

Super Bowl Props

By now everyone is familiar with the crazy props available on the Super Bowl each year.  You can bet on just about anything.  The length of the National Anthem, the coin flip, how many passing yards each quarterback will have, how many times the announcers will say certain words, etc., etc.  I’ve posted some of my favorites from 5Dimes below, however, there are simply too many to list here.

Pink’s Cleavage While Singing the National Anthem
Shows cleavage +300
No cleavage -420
Will Any Player Kneel During the Anthem?
Yes +525
No -975
Game Goes to Double Overtime
Yes +5000
No -15500
Tom Brady – Which Comes First?
Touchdown -345
Interception +285

And so on…Sign up for an account and you can bet on any of these props, and many, many more, should you feel you have and advantage on any of them.

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