The Philadelphia Eagles are now Super Bowl Champions after an incredible 41-33 performance against the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LII. Almost immediately after the game, oddsmakers were quick to release their odds for next year.
NFL futures odds are best described as the “odds to win the Super Bowl”. These are the odds given to each team based on the probability they will win the Super Bowl. As the season progresses the lines are updated to give a clear picture of who the favorite or favorites to win are.
According to 5Dimes, the New England Patriots (+500) are the favorites to win Super Bowl LIII, despite their losing effort against the Philadelphia Eagles (+700), who happen to be the second-favorite to win the Lombardi Trophy.
The change column represents how much the odds have moved since the last time they were updated. Our power index estimates the point advantage or disadvantage each team has against an approximately average NFL team on a neutral field. The Odds column are the latest odds from 5Dimes. The Super Bowl column represents the implied, normalized probability that team will win the Super Bowl.
|Team||2017 Record||Division||2017 Power Index||Odds||Change||Super Bowl|
|New England Patriots||13-3||AFC East||9.4||+500||None||12.25%|
|Philadelphia Eagles||13-3||NFC East||10.8||+950||-250||9.19%|
|Green Bay Packers||7-9||NFC North||-4.0||+1000||-200||8.17%|
|Pittsburgh Steelers||13-3||AFC North||5.6||+1100||-100||6.68%|
|Minnesota Vikings||13-3||NFC North||5.8||+1400||-200||5.66%|
|New Orleans Saints||11-5||NFC South||6.8||+1500||+350||3.77%|
|Atlanta Falcons||10-6||NFC South||2.6||+1700||+300||3.50%|
|San Francisco 49ers||6-10||NFC West||-3.2||+1800||None||3.87%|
|Los Angeles Rams||11-5||NFC West||8.0||+2000||-250||3.97%|
|Houston Texans||4-12||AFC South||-6.1||+2150||-300||3.77%|
|Jacksonville Jaguars||10-6||AFC South||8.2||+2200||-200||3.50%|
|Seattle Seahawks||9-7||NFC West||2.1||+2300||+200||2.83%|
|Oakland Raiders||6-10||AFC West||-4.5||+2450||-350||3.34%|
|Dallas Cowboys||9-7||NFC West||1.4||+2500||-500||3.50%|
|Kansas City Chiefs||10-6||AFC West||4.4||+2700||+300||2.37%|
|Carolina Panthers||11-5||NFC South||1.8||+3000||-500||2.83%|
|Los Angeles Chargers||9-7||AFC West||5.2||+3000||None||2.37%|
|Denver Broncos||5-11||AFC West||-5.8||+3250||+250||2.04%|
|Tennessee Titans||9-7||AFC South||-2.3||+4000||+1000||1.44%|
|Baltimore Ravens||9-7||AFC North||5.8||+4000||+1000||1.44%|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||5-11||NFC South||-2.9||+4500||-500||1.79%|
|Detroit Lions||9-7||NFC North||2.1||+4500||+500||1.44%|
|Indianapolis Colts||4-12||AFC South||-8.8||+5000||-1000||1.79%|
|New York Giants||3-13||NFC East||-8.9||+5000||+500||1.31%|
|Washington Redskins||7-9||NFC East||-2.9||+6000||+1000||1.04%|
|Arizona Cardinals||8-8||NFC West||-4.1||+6600||-1600||1.44%|
|Buffalo Bills||9-7||AFC East||-3.8||+6600||+3400||0.73%|
|Miami Dolphins||6-10||AFC East||-7.0||+7000||None||1.04%|
|Cincinnati Bengals||7-9||AFC North||-3.7||+8500||+1500||0.73%|
|Cleveland Browns||0-16||AFC North||-11.0||+9000||+1000||0.73%|
|Chicago Bears||5-11||NFC North||-3.5||+10000||None||0.73%|
|New York Jets||5-11||AFC East||-5.2||+10000||None||0.73%|
The term “Vegas Odds” has come to encompass any betting line on the game, but it is important to remember that Vegas odds can differ from lines you might see online or from a local bookie.
The “opener” is represents the first crack that oddsmakers take at giving what they think is a fair market price on each team. Once this is set and money starts to come in on different bets, books adjust and the lines eventually settle in.
For the Vegas odds we took a look at the major sportsbooks and found the the majority agreed with the odds at Caesar’s Palace, but that a few books (e.g. Westgate & Station Casino) had taken large wagers on the Eagles and had adjusted their lines further. The total has moved a point across the board in Vegas versus the opener, but it is uniform on and off the strip.
Much like the Vegas books, the majority of online books agree on this year’s spread, however, 5Dimes appears to be the outlier as of this posting. If you like the Patriots, you may want to grab an account as they have by far the best line available. There are also a few books (BetOnline being one) with a half-point different total than the consensus, however they have adjusted the vig so that it is essentially the same wager.
First half odds allow you to bet only on the first half of the game. The results are based on the score at halftime, regardless of what the final score ends up being.
By now everyone is familiar with the crazy props available on the Super Bowl each year. You can bet on just about anything. The length of the National Anthem, the coin flip, how many passing yards each quarterback will have, how many times the announcers will say certain words, etc., etc. I’ve posted some of my favorites from 5Dimes below, however, there are simply too many to list here.
And so on…Sign up for an account and you can bet on any of these props, and many, many more, should you feel you have and advantage on any of them.