NFL futures odds are best described as the “odds to win the Super Bowl”. These are the odds given to each team based on the probability they will win the Super Bowl. As the season progresses the lines are updated to give a clear picture of who the favorite or favorites to win are.
The Super Bowl LIII winners were the New England Patriots. The Pats defeated the Rams by a final score of 13-3 in one of the most unusual Super Bowls of all-time.
The Conference Championship matchups are now set and the odds to win the Super Bowl have undergone some significant changes. The biggest jump came from the Kansas City Chiefs, who fell behind 0-24 last week against the Titans, then mounted one of the most impressive comebacks in NFL history and ran away with a 51-31 victory when all was said and done.
Further strengthening the Chiefs’ position was the result in the other AFC Divisional round game. The Ravens entered the game as the odds-on favorites to win the Super Bowl, but were shocked by Tennessee Titans, who earned a 28-12 victory thanks in large part to a dominating performance by RB Derrick Henry who carried the ball 30 times for 195 yards.
The results in the NFC were more along the lines of what we expected to see. The 49ers were heavy favorites against the Vikings and coasted to a 27-10 victory. The Seahawks/Packers game was expected to be the closest of the matchups last weekend and it was. The Packers got up early and held the Seahawks off on route to a 28-23 win and a spot in the NFC Championship game.
Entering this week’s championship round the Chiefs are the favorites to win the title and they are expected to square off against the 49ers. Both teams are pretty heavy favorites in their games but, as we’ve seen, the favorites are not guaranteed to advance. The Packers can definitely get hot with Aaron Rodgers at QB and the Titans might be the most underrated team in the NFL this year.
Now, here’s a look at the division winners and projected rounds of the playoffs based on current market odds.
AFC East: Patriots
AFC North: Ravens
AFC South: Texans
AFC West: Chiefs
NFC East: Eagles
NFC North: Packers
NFC South: Saints
NFC West: 49ers
Chiefs vs Titans
Packers vs 49ers
Chiefs vs 49ers
Kansas City Chiefs
The change column represents how much the odds have moved since the last time they were updated. The MOV included is that team’s average margin of victory, which is sometimes helpful in creating your own spread on a game. The Odds column are the latest odds from BetOnline. The Super Bowl column represents the implied no-vig probability that each team will win the big game.
| Team | 2019 Record | Division | 2019 MOV | Odds | Change | Super Bowl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | 12-4-0 | AFC West | 9.6 | +130 | +220 | 41.49% |
| 49ers | 13-3-0 | NFC West | 10.9 | +170 | +180 | 35.35% |
| Packers | 13-3-0 | NFC North | 4.0 | +700 | None | 11.93% |
| Titans | 9-7-0 | AFC South | 5.2 | +750 | +1250 | 11.23% |
The term “Vegas Odds” has come to encompass any betting line on the game, but it is important to remember that Vegas odds can differ from lines you might see online or from a local bookie.
The “opener” is represents the first crack that oddsmakers take at giving what they think is a fair market price on each team. Once this is set and money starts to come in on different bets, books adjust and the lines eventually settle in.
For the Vegas odds we took a look at the major sportsbooks and found the the majority agreed with the odds at Caesar’s Palace, but that a few books (e.g. Westgate & Station Casino) have adjusted by a half point. The total has moved a half point as well in some spots, but can be found at 57.5 at most shops.
You will find much more variety at offshore books right now, which don’t have a strong consensus. Granted, there isn’t much difference between a 1.5 and 2.5 line in the NFL, so take these early fluctuations with a grain of salt while the line settles in. The only number that really matters here is if anyone posts the spread at 3 points, which Bovada has, albeit at inflated prices. That said, if you like the Rams here, it’s worth the additional 20 cents to get the key number.
First half odds allow you to bet only on the first half of the game. The results are based on the score at halftime, regardless of what the final score ends up being.
By now everyone is familiar with the crazy props available on the Super Bowl each year. You can bet on just about anything. The length of the National Anthem, the coin flip, how many passing yards each quarterback will have, how many times the announcers will say certain words, etc., etc. I’ve posted some of my favorites from Bovada below, however, there are simply too many to list here.
And so on…Sign up for an account and you can bet on any of these props, and many, many more, should you feel you have and advantage on any of them.