The Rams sit at +500 to win Super Bowl LXI, a price that converts to 16.7% implied probability. That number does not say they will win more often than not. It says the field lacks a clear second contender, and the board, 32 teams deep, mostly agrees.
5 sportsbooks price this market, and bet365, BetMGM, DraftKings, Caesars, FanDuel rarely land on the same number past the top few names. Odds here were last updated September 9, 2026. In a market this heavily bet, the gap between the best and worst price on one team can decide whether a ticket is worth writing.
| Team | bet365 | BetMGM | DraftKings | Caesars | FanDuel | Implied | Kalshi, all in | Cheaper | 30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Rams | +650 | +650 | +500 | +650 | +650 | 13.3% | +68712.7c to buy · mid 11.5c | Kalshiby 0.6c | +50 |
| 2Bills | +700 | +800 | +1000 | +800 | +850 | 9.1% | +62513.8c to buy · mid 12.5c | Booksby 4.7c | flat |
| 3Ravens | +1000 | +1000 | +1000 | +900 | +900 | 9.1% | +10768.5c to buy · mid 7.5c | Kalshiby 0.6c | -300 |
| 4Seahawks | +1100 | +1100 | +1200 | +1100 | +1100 | 7.7% | +12337.5c to buy · mid 6.5c | Kalshiby 0.2c | flat |
| 5Chiefs | +1200 | +1400 | +1600 | +1400 | +1400 | 5.9% | +12337.5c to buy · mid 6.5c | Booksby 1.6c | -100 |
| 6Eagles | +1800 | +1600 | +1700 | +1600 | +1600 | 5.3% | +17875.3c to buy · mid 4.5c | Even | flat |
| 749ers | +1200 | +1400 | +1900 | +1200 | +1200 | 5.0% | +10768.5c to buy · mid 7.5c | Booksby 3.5c | flat |
| 8Texans | +1800 | +2000 | +1800 | +2000 | +1800 | 4.8% | +22264.3c to buy · mid 3.5c | Kalshiby 0.5c | +200 |
| 9Bengals | +2000 | +2000 | +1800 | +1800 | +1900 | 4.8% | +17875.3c to buy · mid 4.5c | Booksby 0.5c | flat |
| 10Lions | +2000 | +1800 | +1900 | +2200 | +2000 | 4.3% | +30253.2c to buy · mid 2.5c | Kalshiby 1.1c | +300 |
| 11Patriots | +2000 | +2000 | +1800 | +2400 | +2000 | 4.0% | +22264.3c to buy · mid 3.5c | Booksby 0.3c | +100 |
| 12Bears | +2000 | +2000 | +2400 | +1900 | +2000 | 4.0% | +17875.3c to buy · mid 4.5c | Booksby 1.3c | -100 |
| 13Broncos | +2000 | +2000 | +2000 | +2400 | +2500 | 3.8% | +22264.3c to buy · mid 3.5c | Booksby 0.5c | +500 |
| 14Cowboys | +2500 | +2800 | +2500 | +2500 | +2700 | 3.4% | +22264.3c to buy · mid 3.5c | Booksby 0.9c | +300 |
| 15Chargers | +3000 | +2500 | +1700 | +2500 | +3000 | 3.2% | +30253.2c to buy · mid 2.5c | Even | +1200 |
| 16Packers | +2500 | +2500 | +2000 | +2600 | +3000 | 3.2% | +30253.2c to buy · mid 2.5c | Even | +800 |
| 17Jaguars | +2200 | +2500 | +3000 | +2200 | +2200 | 3.2% | – | – | flat |
| 18Vikings | +4000 | +5000 | +5000 | +4000 | +3300 | 2.0% | +30253.2c to buy · mid 2.5c | Booksby 1.2c | flat |
| 19Buccaneers | +5000 | +5000 | +5500 | +5500 | +4000 | 1.8% | +46622.1c to buy · mid 1.5c | Booksby 0.3c | flat |
| 20Steelers | +6000 | +5000 | +5000 | +5500 | +7000 | 1.4% | +46622.1c to buy · mid 1.5c | Booksby 0.7c | -1000 |
| 21Giants | +5000 | +5000 | +7000 | +5000 | +5000 | 1.4% | +30253.2c to buy · mid 2.5c | Booksby 1.8c | flat |
| 22Colts | +7000 | +8000 | +6000 | +8000 | +7500 | 1.2% | +89911.1c to buy · mid 0.5c | Kalshiby 0.1c | +1400 |
| 23Commanders | +7500 | +8000 | +6000 | +9000 | +7500 | 1.1% | +89911.1c to buy · mid 0.5c | Even | +1000 |
| 24Saints | +10000 | +10000 | +9000 | +9000 | +8000 | 1.0% | +89911.1c to buy · mid 0.5c | Booksby 0.1c | +1000 |
| 25Panthers | +12500 | +12500 | +9000 | +15000 | +12500 | 0.7% | +89911.1c to buy · mid 0.5c | Booksby 0.4c | +5000 |
| 26Falcons | +12500 | +12500 | +13000 | +15000 | +10000 | 0.7% | +89911.1c to buy · mid 0.5c | Booksby 0.4c | +2000 |
| 27Raiders | +15000 | +15000 | +15000 | +12500 | +12500 | 0.7% | +89911.1c to buy · mid 0.5c | Booksby 0.4c | -10000 |
| 28Jets | +20000 | +25000 | +20000 | +25000 | +17500 | 0.4% | +89911.1c to buy · mid 0.5c | Booksby 0.7c | -5000 |
| 29Cardinals | +30000 | +50000 | +50000 | +30000 | +25000 | 0.2% | +89911.1c to buy · mid 0.5c | Booksby 0.9c | -50000 |
| 30Titans | +25000 | +75000 | +13000 | +40000 | +35000 | 0.1% | +89911.1c to buy · mid 0.5c | Booksby 1c | +50000 |
| 31Browns | +50000 | +75000 | +20000 | +75000 | +100000 | 0.1% | +89911.1c to buy · mid 0.5c | Booksby 1c | +75000 |
| 32Dolphins | +100000 | +100000 | +35000 | +100000 | +100000 | 0.1% | +89911.1c to buy · mid 0.5c | Booksby 1c | +30000 |
Red is the best price on that row. The 30-day line is the best available price over time; green shortened, amber drifted. Implied probability comes from the best price and includes the books’ margin. A Kalshi price is what a $1 payout costs, in cents, so the price is the win chance: 40c is +150, 60c is -150. How to read a Kalshi price. Kalshi is what a buyer actually pays for that team’s contract, shown as sportsbook odds so it lines up with the book prices: the ask plus the 7% taker fee, in cents on the dollar. The mid under it is the market’s fair read, halfway between bid and ask, which nobody can buy at. Cheaper compares the all-in Kalshi cost to the best book price.
This is the most heavily bet futures market in football, and the volume makes it the sharpest priced board in the sport. Locking a price on a contender matters more than eventually picking the winner. A team that wins early draws money fast, and its number shortens across bet365, BetMGM, DraftKings, Caesars, FanDuel within days. Waiting for more proof costs the value that made the bet worth making.
Public money piles onto recognizable names, and that demand prices them shorter than the roster alone justifies. The value tends to sit one tier below whichever team is drawing the attention.
The Cardinals sit at +100000, a price that only pays if there is a real path to a deep run, not just a plausible one. A settled quarterback situation, a manageable schedule, and a coaching staff with a track record of overachieving are what separate a live longshot from one carried on the board out of habit.
The signal is in the spread between books. If bet365, BetMGM, DraftKings, Caesars, FanDuel all sit within a point of each other at the long end, the market has already made up its mind. Real disagreement between books on the same team is worth chasing. Anything else is a stake parked for months with no case behind it.
Backing the Rams at +500 pays a 16.7% rate over time if the price is fair, which still means it loses more often than it wins. That is what a 32-team field guarantees. The return comes from a full season of near-misses covered by the times the bet actually lands, not from any single result.
Names like the Bills at +1000 and the Seahawks at +1200 draw enough attention to attract public money but not enough scrutiny to get priced as tightly as the top of the board. Checking 5 books for the best number on a mid-tier contender works the part of this market least likely to already be efficient, which is where an edge tends to show up.