Las Vegas Favorites & Each Teams Odds to Win Super Bowl 53 in 2019

The Philadelphia Eagles are Super Bowl Champions after an incredible 41-33 performance against the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LII.  Almost immediately after the game, oddsmakers were quick to release their odds for next year.  They’ve since been updated several times.

NFL futures odds are best described as the “odds to win the Super Bowl”.  These are the odds given to each team based on the probability they will win the Super Bowl.  As the season progresses the lines are updated to give a clear picture of who the favorite or favorites to win are.

According to the last update at BetOnline, the Rams and the Saints are now tied with the best odds to win the Super Bowl at +400 (4 to 1 odds). These are the two best teams in the NFC right now and at this point in the season it would be surprising if one or the other did not represent their conference in the big game. Their most likely opponent as of this latest update is the Kansas City Chiefs out of the AFC. The Patriots and Steelers are also projected to contend.

Of the teams with a real shot at making the Super Bowl, the Patriots odds took the biggest hit with their blowout loss to the Titans. They are now +800 to win the championship. The Saints and Steelers were the biggest winners this week. Both teams put up over 50 points and won in convincing fashion, so this shouldn’t come as much of a surprise. The Bears also looked good this week and saw the biggest improvement (+300) of any team in the top quarter of the league.

The weirdest behavior in the betting market right now is that for the best team in the NFC East.  The Eagles at just 4-5 are tied with the 6-3 Redskins, and both are just in from of the 4-5 Cowboys. It’s clear from these odds that this division is still very much a toss up. Only the 2-7 Giants (+25000) are likely out of this race.

Now let’s look at the projected division winners and the odds for every team to win Super Bowl 53.

Projected Division Winners & Super Bowl Matchup

These are the projected winners for each division as predicted by the latest odds update.

AFC Division Winners

AFC East:  Patriots
AFC North:  Steelers
AFC South:  Texans
AFC West:  Chiefs

NFC Division Winners

NFC East:  Eagles
NFC North:  Vikings
NFC South:  Saints
NFC West:  Rams

AFC Championship Matchup: Chiefs vs Patriots

NFC Championship Matchup: Rams vs Saints

Super Bowl Matchup Projection:  Chiefs vs Rams/Saints [tie]

Projected SB LIII Winner: Los Angeles Rams/Saints [tie]

NFL Futures: Odds to Win Super Bowl 53 (LIII)

The change column represents how much the odds have moved since the last time they were updated.  Our power index estimates the point advantage or disadvantage each team has against an approximately average NFL team on a neutral field.  The Odds column are the latest odds from BetOnline.  The Super Bowl column represents the implied, normalized probability that team will win the Super Bowl.

Team 2018 Record Division 2018 MOV Odds Change Super Bowl
Rams 9-1-0 NFC West 10.4 +400 -50 15.91%
Saints 8-1-0 NFC South 10.9 +400 +100 15.91%
Chiefs 9-1-0 AFC West 11.3 +475 +75 13.83%
Patriots 7-3-0 AFC East 4.4 +800 -250 8.84%
Steelers 6-2-1 AFC North 7.8 +900 +100 7.95%
Chargers 7-2-0 AFC West 6.0 +1400 None 5.30%
Vikings 5-3-1 NFC North 1.9 +2000 -400 3.79%
Bears 6-3-0 NFC North 10.4 +2200 +300 3.46%
Texans 6-3-0 AFC South 3.6 +2500 None 3.06%
Panthers 6-3-0 NFC South 1.0 +3300 -1300 2.34%
Packers 4-4-1 NFC North 0.8 +3300 +1700 2.34%
Eagles 4-5-0 NFC East 1.7 +3300 -1100 2.34%
Redskins 6-3-0 NFC East 0.1 +3300 +3300 2.34%
Cowboys 4-5-0 NFC East 1.1 +4000 +4000 1.94%
Ravens 4-5-0 AFC North 5.9 +5000 -1000 1.56%
Colts 4-5-0 AFC South 2.3 +5000 +10000 1.56%
Titans 5-4-0 AFC South 1.9 +5000 +1600 1.56%
Falcons 4-5-0 NFC South -1.1 +8000 -4700 0.98%
Bengals 5-4-0 AFC North -5.9 +8000 -3000 0.98%
Seahawks 4-5-0 NFC West 3.0 +8000 None 0.98%
Jaguars 3-6-0 AFC South -4.3 +10000 -3400 0.79%
Browns 3-6-1 AFC North -4.5 +15000 +35000 0.53%
Dolphins 5-5-0 AFC East -5.7 +15000 None 0.53%
Giants 2-7-0 NFC East -5.7 +25000 +25000 0.32%
Bills 3-7-0 AFC East -11.4 +50000 +50000 0.16%
Broncos 3-6-0 AFC West -0.9 +50000 -25000 0.16%
Lions 3-6-0 NFC North -4.7 +50000 -25000 0.16%
Bucs 3-6-0 NFC South -6.6 +50000 None 0.16%
Cardinals 2-7-0 NFC West -11.2 +100000 -50000 0.08%
Jets 3-7-0 AFC East -4.6 +100000 -50000 0.08%
49ers 2-8-0 NFC West -3.6 +100000 -50000 0.08%

What Were the Vegas Odds on the Most Recent Super Bowl?

The term “Vegas Odds” has come to encompass any betting line on the game, but it is important to remember that Vegas odds can differ from lines you might see online or from a local bookie.

Super Bowl LII Opening Betting Line

The “opener” is represents the first crack that oddsmakers take at giving what they think is a fair market price on each team.  Once this is set and money starts to come in on different bets, books adjust and the lines eventually settle in.

Opening Point Spread:  Patriots -6 +100 / Eagles +6 -110
Opening Total:  Over 47.5 +100 / Under 47.5 -110
Opening Moneyline: Eagles +193 / Patriots -215

Current Vegas Odds

For the Vegas odds we took a look at the major sportsbooks and found the the majority agreed with the odds at Caesar’s Palace, but that a few books (e.g. Westgate & Station Casino) had taken large wagers on the Eagles and had adjusted their lines further.  The total has moved a point across the board in Vegas versus the opener, but it is uniform on and off the strip.

Caesar’s Palace (consensus):  Patriots -4.5 -110
Westgate/Station:  Patriots -4 -110
Over/Under:  48.5 -110
Moneyline:  Patriots -180 to -190 / Eagles +155 to +165

Current Offshore Odds

Much like the Vegas books, the majority of online books agree on this year’s spread, however, 5Dimes appears to be the outlier as of this posting. If you like the Patriots, you may want to grab an account as they have by far the best line available.  There are also a few books (BetOnline being one) with a half-point different total than the consensus, however they have adjusted the vig so that it is essentially the same wager.

Bovada (consensus):  Patriots -4.5 -110 / OU 48.5 -110
5Dimes: Patriots -4 -109
BetOnline:  Over 48 -120 / Under 48 +100
Moneyline: Patriots -175 to -205 / Eagles +155 to +175

1st Half Spread & Total

First half odds allow you to bet only on the first half of the game.  The results are based on the score at halftime, regardless of what the final score ends up being.

1st Half Spread:  Patriots -2.5 -110
1st Half Total:  Over 24 +100 / Under 24 -120
1st Half Moneyline:  Patriots -165 / Eagles +145

Super Bowl Props

By now everyone is familiar with the crazy props available on the Super Bowl each year.  You can bet on just about anything.  The length of the National Anthem, the coin flip, how many passing yards each quarterback will have, how many times the announcers will say certain words, etc., etc.  I’ve posted some of my favorites from 5Dimes below, however, there are simply too many to list here.

Pink’s Cleavage While Singing the National Anthem
Shows cleavage +300
No cleavage -420
Will Any Player Kneel During the Anthem?
Yes +525
No -975
Game Goes to Double Overtime
Yes +5000
No -15500
Tom Brady – Which Comes First?
Touchdown -345
Interception +285

And so on…Sign up for an account and you can bet on any of these props, and many, many more, should you feel you have and advantage on any of them.

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