The Toronto Raptors captured their first ever NBA Finals championship for the 2018-19 NBA season with a shocking six-game win over the Golden State Warriors. Almost immediately after the game, sportsbooks started posting their odds for next season’s winner. The Milwaukee Bucks started the season as the odds-on favorites, but now that the dust has settled from an epic free agency period we have seen some unprecedented movement.
The biggest winners (as far as the odds are concerned) has to be the LA Clippers, who went from +1200 (12 to 1) all the way up to +350 (3.5 to 1) to win this year’s Finals. The Clips added two incredible talents in Paul George and Kawhi Leonard to their starting roster, which also includes Patrick Beverly, Landry Shamet, and Ivica Zubac.
The Clippers weren’t the only LA team to make a splash in free agency. The Lakers also improved their odds significantly when they landed Anthony Davis and then DeMarcus Cousins to play with LeBron James, Rajon Rondo, and Danny Green. At +500 in the same division as the Clippers, the market sees one of the two Los Angeles teams capturing the title this year.
We should also mention the Brooklyn Nets, who scored major points in picking up both Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving in the offseason, however, Durant won’t play this upcoming season with his achilles injury. The Nets still have a lot of solid pieces in place, but they will likely need to wait another season before they are true contenders.
With Durant heading to Brooklyn, the Golden State Warriors picked up a very solid player in D’Angelo Russell, plus re-signed the sharp-shooting Klay Thompson. With that being said, the market isn’t high on the defending Western Conference Champs as they’ve slid all the way below the Clippers, Lakers, and Rockets according to the latest odds. I wouldn’t sleep on the Warriors in this spot, they still have a tremendous core of talent and they seem to get the best out of their role players. This might be the best price you see them at all season.
Of the teams that had potential to be contenders, the New York Knicks missed the mark more than anyone else. NY was thought to be the landing spot for at least one of the big free agents (Durant or Leonard), but ended up with Julius Randle. He’s a solid NBA player, but not the kind of addition New York needs to compete in the East.
The latest Finals odds from BetOnline are listed below. The change column represents how much a team’s odds have improved or decreased since our last update (current odds are the opening odds for the 2019-20 NBA season). The MOV represents the average margin of victory for each team last season. This number can be useful in setting your own point spread. For example, the Warriors (5.8) versus the Raptors (5.9) on a neutral court should have an approximate line of a Pick ’em. This is of course only a starting point for the line, but it should give you a good place to start when estimating matchup odds. The percentage represented in the NBA Finals column is the implied no-vig probability of that team winning the championship this season based on the current market values.
| Team | Record | Conference (Division) | MOV | Odds | Change | NBA Finals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clippers | 48-34 | West (Pacific) | 0.1 | +350 | -50 | 16.85% |
| Lakers | 37-45 | West (Pacific) | -1.7 | +500 | -100 | 12.64% |
| Bucks | 60-22 | East (Central) | 8.9 | +500 | None | 12.64% |
| Rockets | 53-29 | West (Southwest) | 4.6 | +800 | +600 | 8.43% |
| 76ers | 51-31 | East (Atlantic) | 2.7 | +900 | -100 | 7.58% |
| Warriors | 57-25 | West (Pacific) | 5.8 | +1200 | +200 | 5.83% |
| Jazz | 50-32 | West (Northwest) | 4.4 | +1200 | +400 | 5.83% |
| Celtics | 49-33 | East (Atlantic) | 3.9 | +1600 | +400 | 4.46% |
| Nuggets | 54-28 | West (Northwest) | 3.6 | +1600 | -200 | 4.46% |
| Nets | 42-40 | East (Atlantic) | -0.7 | +2500 | -500 | 2.92% |
| Raptors | 58-24 | East (Atlantic) | 5.9 | +2500 | -500 | 2.92% |
| Pacers | 48-34 | East (Central) | 2.8 | +3300 | None | 2.23% |
| Blazers | 53-29 | West (Northwest) | 3.3 | +3300 | +700 | 2.23% |
| Mavs | 33-49 | West (Southwest) | -1.3 | +4000 | None | 1.85% |
| Heat | 39-43 | East (Southeast) | -0.2 | +5000 | None | 1.49% |
| Spurs | 48-34 | West (Southwest) | 1.4 | +6600 | None | 1.13% |
| Pelicans | 33-49 | West (Southwest) | -1.3 | +8000 | -1400 | 0.94% |
| Thunder | 49-33 | West (Northwest) | 2.9 | +10000 | -5000 | 0.75% |
| Magic | 42-40 | East (Southeast) | -0.2 | +10000 | None | 0.75% |
| Hawks | 29-53 | East (Southeast) | -6.0 | +12500 | None | 0.60% |
| Kings | 39-43 | West (Pacific) | -1.1 | +12500 | +2500 | 0.60% |
| Bulls | 22-60 | East (Central) | -8.4 | +15000 | None | 0.50% |
| Pistons | 41-41 | East (Central) | -1.3 | +15000 | None | 0.50% |
| T-Wolves | 36-46 | West (Northwest) | -1.5 | +15000 | None | 0.50% |
| Grizzlies | 33-49 | West (Southwest) | -2.6 | +25000 | -10000 | 0.30% |
| Knicks | 17-65 | East (Atlantic) | -9.2 | +25000 | -15000 | 0.30% |
| Wizards | 32-50 | East (Southeast) | -2.9 | +25000 | -10000 | 0.30% |
| Hornets | 39-43 | East (Southeast) | -1.1 | +50000 | -35000 | 0.15% |
| Cavs | 19-63 | East (Central) | -9.6 | +50000 | -35000 | 0.15% |
| Suns | 19-63 | West (Pacific) | -9.3 | +50000 | -25000 | 0.15% |
Our projections are based on the latest odds to win the finals as of the most recent update.
Matchup: Milwaukee Bucks vs Philadelphia 76ers
Winner: Milwaukee Bucks
Matchup: LA Clippers vs Rockets
Winner: LA Clippers
Matchup: Milwaukee Bucks vs LA Clippers
Winner: LA Clippers