The Toronto Raptors captured their first ever NBA Finals championship for the 2018-19 NBA season with a shocking six-game win over the Golden State Warriors. Almost immediately after the game, sportsbooks started posting their odds for next season’s winner. The Milwaukee Bucks started the season as the odds-on favorites, but after free agency the Clippers emerged as the favorites, and the Lakers have surged their way to now being tied with them as the favorites to win the Finals.
We’ve only seen an handful of games from each team, but there has already been some dramatic swings. The Warriors have looked downright awful through their first eight games and have fallen all the way to +5000 and are on the verge of playing themselves out of the playoff picture. Meanwhile, both the Heat and Suns have gotten off to fast starts and the market has adjusted accordingly.
The latest Finals odds from BetOnline are listed below. The change column represents how much a team’s odds have improved or decreased since our last update (10/25). The MOV represents the average margin of victory for each team last season. This number can be useful in setting your own point spread. For example, the Clippers (4.4) versus the Lakers (9.9) on a neutral court should have an approximate line of the Lakers -5.5. This is of course only a starting point for the line, but it should give you a good place to start when estimating matchup odds. The percentage represented in the NBA Finals column is the implied no-vig probability of that team winning the championship this season based on the current market values.
| Team | Record | Conference (Division) | MOV | Odds | Change | NBA Finals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clippers | 6-3 | West (Pacific) | 4.4 | +300 | +50 | 18.82% |
| Lakers | 6-1 | West (Pacific) | 9.9 | +300 | +150 | 18.82% |
| Bucks | 6-2 | East (Central) | 10.2 | +600 | None | 10.75% |
| 76ers | 5-2 | East (Atlantic) | 5.4 | +600 | None | 10.75% |
| Rockets | 5-3 | West (Southwest) | -1.2 | +900 | -300 | 7.53% |
| Nuggets | 5-2 | West (Northwest) | 3.1 | +1600 | None | 4.43% |
| Jazz | 5-3 | West (Northwest) | 4.1 | +2000 | -800 | 3.58% |
| Celtics | 6-1 | East (Atlantic) | 7.9 | +2500 | -500 | 2.90% |
| Heat | 6-2 | East (Southeast) | 8.2 | +2500 | +4100 | 2.90% |
| Raptors | 5-2 | East (Atlantic) | 5.9 | +3300 | None | 2.21% |
| Nets | 3-4 | East (Atlantic) | 0.7 | +4000 | -700 | 1.84% |
| Blazers | 3-5 | West (Northwest) | -1.5 | +4000 | -700 | 1.84% |
| Spurs | 5-3 | West (Southwest) | 2.4 | +4000 | +1000 | 1.84% |
| Warriors | 2-6 | West (Pacific) | -9.8 | +5000 | -4000 | 1.48% |
| Suns | 5-3 | West (Pacific) | 5.5 | +5000 | +45000 | 1.48% |
| Mavs | 5-2 | West (Southwest) | 4.0 | +6600 | None | 1.12% |
| Pacers | 4-4 | East (Central) | 2.6 | +6600 | -1600 | 1.12% |
| T-Wolves | 4-3 | West (Northwest) | -2.0 | +6600 | +8400 | 1.12% |
| Hawks | 3-4 | East (Southeast) | -2.4 | +10000 | +5000 | 0.75% |
| Pistons | 4-5 | East (Central) | -2.4 | +10000 | +5000 | 0.75% |
| Pelicans | 1-6 | West (Southwest) | -5.0 | +10000 | -2000 | 0.75% |
| Magic | 2-6 | East (Southeast) | -4.6 | +10000 | None | 0.75% |
| Bulls | 3-6 | East (Central) | -2.6 | +15000 | None | 0.50% |
| Thunder | 3-5 | West (Northwest) | 1.8 | +15000 | -5000 | 0.50% |
| Hornets | 4-4 | East (Southeast) | -7.6 | +25000 | +25000 | 0.30% |
| Cavs | 2-5 | East (Central) | -6.0 | +25000 | +25000 | 0.30% |
| Kings | 2-6 | West (Pacific) | -8.4 | +25000 | -10000 | 0.30% |
| Wizards | 2-5 | East (Southeast) | -2.9 | +25000 | None | 0.30% |
| Grizzlies | 2-5 | West (Southwest) | -7.9 | +50000 | -25000 | 0.15% |
| Knicks | 1-7 | East (Atlantic) | -10.5 | +50000 | -25000 | 0.15% |
Our projections are based on the latest odds to win the finals as of the most recent update.
Matchup: Milwaukee Bucks vs Philadelphia 76ers
Winner: Milwaukee Bucks/Philadelphia 76ers [Tie]
Matchup: LA Clippers vs LA Lakers
Winner: LA Clippers/LA Lakers [Tie]
Matchup: Bucks/76ers [Tie] vs Clippers/Lakers [Tie]
Winner: Clippers/Lakers [Tie]