The odds to win the NBA Finals have recently been updated and are listed below. The Golden State Warriors are heavy favorites to repeat as champions this year. As far as the odds are concerned, if anyone is going to knock the Warriors from the top in the West, it would be the Rockets, Lakers or the Thunder. Golden State’s most likely Finals opponent looks to be the Raptors out of the East, with the Celtics, Bucks, and 76ers expected to be their top contenders.
The latest Finals odds from 5Dimes are listed below. The change column represents how much a team’s odds have improved or decreased since our last update (2/14). Our MOV represents the average margin of victor for each team. This can be useful in setting your own point spread. For example, the Warriors (6.7) versus the Rockets (2.2) on a neutral court should have an approximate line of the Warriors -4.5. This is of course only a starting point for the line, but it should give you a good place to start when estimating matchup odds. Finally, our NBA Finals column is the probability each team will win the NBA Finals as implied by their current market odds.
| Team | Record | Conference (Division) | MOV | Odds | Change | NBA Finals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 43-18 | West (Pacific) | 6.7 | -225 | +60 | 60.75% |
| Raptors | 45-17 | East (Atlantic) | 5.5 | +1100 | -350 | 7.31% |
| Bucks | 47-14 | East (Central) | 9.5 | +1100 | +750 | 7.31% |
| 76ers | 39-22 | East (Atlantic) | 3.4 | +1600 | +650 | 5.16% |
| Rockets | 36-25 | West (Southwest) | 2.2 | +1700 | -300 | 4.87% |
| Celtics | 37-25 | East (Atlantic) | 5.4 | +1800 | -825 | 4.62% |
| Thunder | 38-22 | West (Northwest) | 4.8 | +2600 | +50 | 3.25% |
| Nuggets | 42-18 | West (Northwest) | 5.4 | +4000 | None | 2.14% |
| Lakers | 30-31 | West (Pacific) | -1.2 | +6500 | -2250 | 1.33% |
| Jazz | 34-26 | West (Northwest) | 3.4 | +9000 | +1000 | 0.96% |
| Blazers | 38-23 | West (Northwest) | 3.6 | +12000 | +4000 | 0.73% |
| Spurs | 34-29 | West (Southwest) | 0.6 | +18500 | -10000 | 0.47% |
| Pacers | 40-22 | East (Central) | 5.0 | +24000 | -16250 | 0.36% |
| Kings | 31-30 | West (Pacific) | -1.3 | +50000 | -17500 | 0.18% |
| Magic | 28-34 | East (Southeast) | -0.9 | +100000 | -50000 | 0.09% |
| Clippers | 34-29 | West (Pacific) | 0.1 | +100000 | -77500 | 0.09% |
| Heat | 27-33 | East (Southeast) | -1.1 | +100000 | -67500 | 0.09% |
| Nets | 32-31 | East (Atlantic) | -0.5 | +100000 | -70000 | 0.09% |
| T-Wolves | 29-32 | West (Northwest) | 0.1 | +200000 | -165000 | 0.04% |
| Pistons | 29-31 | East (Central) | -1.1 | +200000 | -150000 | 0.04% |
| Pelicans | 27-36 | West (Southwest) | 0.6 | +300000 | -280000 | 0.03% |
| Mavs | 27-34 | West (Southwest) | -0.5 | +300000 | -250000 | 0.03% |
| Wizards | 25-36 | East (Southeast) | -3.0 | +300000 | -250000 | 0.03% |
| Hornets | 28-33 | East (Southeast) | -0.6 | +300000 | -265000 | 0.03% |
Our projections are based on the latest odds to win the finals as of the most recent update.
Atlantic: Raptors
Central: Bucks
Southeast: Magic
Northwest: Thunder
Pacific: Warriors
Southwest: Rockets
West: Warriors
East: Raptors/Bucks [tie]
Matchup: Raptors/Bucks [tie] vs Warriors
Winner: Golden State Warriors