The 2025 Kentucky Derby is set to get underway on Saturday, May 3rd at Churchill Downs. This is a Grade 1 stakes race for three-year-old thoroughbreds, and it’s held annually in Louisville, Kentucky. This is a 1 1/4-mile race that is known in the United States as “The Fastest Two Minutes in Sports” as well as the “Run for the Roses”.
It is the first leg of the Triple Crown, which is followed by the Preakness Stakes and the Belmont Stakes. The Kentucky Derby has been run every year since 1875, making this the 151st running. The attendance at the event ranks first in North America and surpasses that of all the other stakes races, including the Breeders’ Cup.
Because of its popularity, the Kentucky Derby draws millions of fans and bettors around the world. I’m going to take a look at the wagering side of it and go through and give my predictions for this year’s race. I will give my Win, Place and Show picks for the horses to finish in 1st, 2nd and 3rd. I will also give my exotic bets.
Final Gambit is my favorite long shot bet in the Kentucky Derby. He won the Jeff Ruby Stakes, which was the same prep race that produced 2011 Derby winner Animal Kingdom and 2023 runner-up Two Phils. The knock on Final Gambit is that he has never run on dirt before, but Animal Kingdom had never run on dirt before winning the Kentucky Derby, either.
Trainer Brad Cox won the 2021 Derby with Mandaloun. His sire, Note This Time, sired 2023 third-place finisher Essential Quality. Per GPS data from the Jeff Ruby Stakes, Final Gambit ran the fasted last eighth of a mile of any entrant in this field at 37 miles per hour. And with a fast pace expected with so many speed horses in this field, Final Gambit is going to be the horse closing the fastest and strongest down the stretch at Churchill Downs.
Pedigree, pedigree, pedigree. Baeza is out of mare Puca, who produced 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage and 2024 Kentucky Derby starter Dornoch, who went on to win the Belmont Stakes in June. I love this bloodline.
Baeza has run two big races in a row. He earned a 104 equibase figure when winning two starts ago, and he earned a 107 figure in the Santa Anita Derby while finishing 2nd to Kentucky Derby favorite Journalism only 3/4 lengths back. He is likely sitting on his best race yet in the Kentucky Derby.
I don’t think the outside post hurts his chances too much. Rich Strike got into the field the day before the race in 2022 and won from the outside post. Jockey Flavien Prat set an all-time record for stakes wins in North America in 2024, and he is excellent at finding ways to save ground. Prat chose Baeza over Neoequos, which tells you everything you need to know about what he thinks of this horse.
I have no knocks on Journalism and he is the favorite for good reason. I just like a couple price horses more. He has won four consecutive races including the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity and the San Felipe Stakes, where he posted a 108 Beyer Speed Figure that is on par with Breeders’ Cup Classic winners in the fall.
He was caught up in traffic in his final prep in the Santa Anita Derby and had to make a move to eventually pass Baeza for a 3/4 length victory that produced a 102 Beyer Speed Figure. His 108 and 102 Beyer Speed Figures are the two best numbers of the Kentucky Derby contenders. If he can sustain those two performances, he could easily be your winner on the 1st Saturday in May.
Sovereignty won the Street Sense Stakes at Churchill Downs last October. After four months off, he showed no rust at all winning the Fountain of Youth Stakes on March 1. He stamped his spot in the Kentucky Derby with that win, so I think he was saving some in the tank when he rallied for a 2nd place finish in the Florida Derby four weeks later. The winner of that race, Tappan Street, had to win to get in and likely would have been the Kentucky Derby favorite had he not gotten injured.
The Florida Derby has produced the most Kentucky Derby winners. The only knocks on this horse is that his equibase figures of 99, 98 and 94 are all below the 100 threshold of aforementioned contenders Baeza and Journalism. But he likely wasn’t fully extended in the Florida Derby, which is a much tougher track to close on than Churchill Downs is. Since he’s a deep closer, the #18 post won’t hurt him much if at all. If I’m wrong about Final Gambit, then Sovereignty could dual Journalism and Baeza and hit the board, which is why I’m using him in all my exotics.
Burnham Square is a poor man’s Sovereignty, and if you like Sovereignty, you almost have to play him. He rallied to win the Holy Bull Stakes at speed-favoring Gulfstream Park. He was 4th in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, but his numbers were similar to the Holy Bull. In his last start in the Blue Grass Stakes, he returned to the winners circle and passed Derby contender East Avenue while posting his best career speed figure (96).
That’s what I like about Burnham Square is he has steadily improved his speed figures with each race, and another jump forward will give him a chance to hit the board. Track observers at Churchill Downs say he has been one of the most impressive horses in workouts leading up to the Kentucky Derby. He has the best tactical speed of all the late-running closers, which would give him a jump on the others.
Jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. won the Kentucky Derby last year aboard Mystik Dan. The #9 posted is a good one as several of the horses inside him are either speed horses or deep closers, so he should get a ground-saving trip moving over to the rail. He finished 4 1/2 lengths behind Sovereignty in the Fountain of Youth and may not have as strong of a closing kick, but he has to be considered if you like Sovereignty.
$36 Win/$36 Place/$36 Show on #3: (can just say $36 on #3 across the board; costs $108)
Exacta Pick: $4 Exacta Box 3, 8, 18, 21 (Costs $48)
Trifecta Pick: $1 Trifecta Box 3, 8, 18, 21 (Costs $24)
Superfecta Pick: $1 Superfecta Box 3, 8, 9, 18, 21 (Costs $120)
Note: Boxing these horses means they can finish in any order on the exacta, trifecta and superfecta bets. As long as any combination of these four horses comes in 1st and 2nd for the exacta, 1st, 2nd and 3rd for the trifecta and 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th for the superfecta your wager will be a winner.
The wording for these exotic wagers at the betting window are as follows:
If you are new to the Kentucky Derby, then you might want to check out my betting guide for beginners. This year’s complete odds are listed below.
| Horse | Odds |
|---|---|
| 1. Citizen Bull | 20/1 |
| 2. Neoequos | 30/1 |
| 3. Final Gambit | 30/1 |
| 5. American Promise | 30/1 |
| 6. Admire Daytona | 30/1 |
| 7. Luxor Cafe | 15/1 |
| 8. Journalism | 3/1 |
| 9. Burnham Square | 12/1 |
| 11. Flying Mohawk | 30/1 |
| 12. East Avenue | 20/1 |
| 13. Publisher | 30/1 |
| 14. Tiztastic | 20/1 |
| 15. Render Judgement | 30/1 |
| 16. Coal Battle | 30/1 |
| 17. Sandman | 6/1 |
| 18. Sovereignty | 5/1 |
| 19. Chunk of Gold | 30/1 |
| 20. Owen Almighty | 30/1 |
| 21. Baeza | 12/1 |