Expert Predictions on Who Will Win the Kentucky Derby

The 2018 Kentucky Derby is set to get underway at 6:50 PM ET on Saturday, May 5th at Churchill Downs. This is a Grade 1 stakes race for three-year-old thoroughbreds, and it’s held annually in Louisville, Kentucky. This is a 1 1/4-mile race that is known in the United States as “The Fastest Two Minutes in Sports” as well as the “Run for the Roses”.

It is the first leg of the Triple Crown, which is followed by the Preakness Stakes and the Belmont Stakes. The Kentucky Derby has been run every year since 1875, making this the 144th running. The attendance at the event ranks first in North America and surpasses that of all the other stakes races, including the Breeders’ Cup.

Because of it’s popularity, the Kentucky Derby draws millions of fans and bettors around the world. I’m going to take a look at the wagering side of it and go through and give my predictions for this year’s race. I provide my Trifecta below, which is picking the 1-2-3 (win, place, show) finishers in the correct order. If you Box these horses together, they can finish 1-2-3 in any order, but it costs more.

**Note – I have picked three of the past six Kentucky Derby Winners with American Pharaoh (5/2) in 2015, Orb (7/2) in 2013, and I’ll Have Another (12/1) in 2012 with my ‘Win’ selections.  Last year, I picked winner Always Dreaming to place (noting I may regret not picking him to win).

2018 Kentucky Derby Betting: Win, Place, Show, Exacta, and Trifecta Picks

This year’s predictions will be posted around May 1 (see updated odds below).

Win: TBD

Place: TBD

Show:  TBD

Exacta Pick: TBD

Trifecta Pick: TBD

If you are new to the Kentucky Derby, then you might want to check out my betting guide for beginners.  This year’s complete odds are listed below.

Updated Odds to Win the Kentucky Derby (2018)

Horse Jockey Trainer Career Earnings Odds Change Kentucky Derby
Justify Mike Smith Bob Baffert $666,000 +200 New 24.03%
Mendelssohn Ryan Moore Aidan O’Brien $1,961,137 +525 New 11.53%
Bolt d’Oro Victor Espinoza Mick Ruiz $1,016,000 +575 New 10.68%
Audible Javier Castellano Todd Pletcher $882,920 +650 New 9.61%
Magnum Moon Luis Saez Todd Pletcher $1,177,800 +725 New 8.74%
Good Magic Jose Ortiz Chad Brown $1,855,000 +825 New 7.79%
Vino Rosso John Velazquez Todd Pletcher $620,500 +950 New 6.86%
Enticed Junior Alvarado Kiaran McLaughlin $595,680 +3000 New 2.33%
My Boy Jack Ken Desmormeaux Keith Desormeaux $645,145 +3000 New 2.33%
Solomini Flavien Prat Bob Baffert $752,000 +3000 New 2.33%
Noble Indy John Velazquez Todd Pletcher $691,600 +3000 New 2.33%
Hofburg Joze Ortiz Bill Mott $227,950 +3500 New 2.00%
Flameaway Jose Lezcano Mark Casse $704,834 +4500 New 1.57%
Lone Sailor James Graham Tom Amoss $334,237 +6000 New 1.18%
Combatant Ricardo Santana Steve Asmussen $388,550 +6500 New 1.09%
Free Drop Billy Irad Ortiz Dale Romans $625,220 +6500 New 1.09%
Instilled Regard Joel Rosario Jerry Hollendorfer $294,000 +6500 New 1.09%
Bravazo Gary Stevens D. Wayne Lukas $436,528 +6500 New 1.09%
Promises Fulfilled Robby Albarado Dale Romans $337,280 +8500 New 0.84%
Firenze Fire Manuel Franco Jason Servis $669,100 +9000 New 0.79%
Snapper Sinclair Jose Ortiz Steve Asmussen $372,360 +10000 New 0.71%

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