John Ryan

7* graded play on Detroit (972) as they take on Houston (971) in MLB action set to start at 7:10 PM ET.

Fundamental Matchups and Data Metrics

When the SIM shows, for example, that team A has a 62% probability of winning, it is also dependent on the current line. The goal is always to achieve optimal risk/reward  opportunities. So, if Team A is lined at -175 favorite, a 62% projection does not have a solid risk/reward profile when compared a 62% probability aligned with a +140 DOG. In this game today, Detroit is today’s edition of that identified DOG. Playing all of these “+140 dogs” and hit  say 62%, for example, our cash balances will have a great chance of increasing significantly.

We have a large set of systems that we have coined The BlackJack Systems drawing on the popular casino game. In the game of BlackJack players have essentially a 50% probability of winning or losing money. However, these BJ systems hit in excess of 50% and produce significant amounts of profits over extended periods of time and multiple seasons.

    So, let’s construct an example where a system that has gone 60-60 averaging a +140 DOG play. If you played the same number of BJ hands as games wagered (125), you would have made $0 playing $100 per hand. However, if you had played this system, you would have made $8400 from the wins and lost $6000 from the losses, for a net profit of $2400 wagering $100 per hand. This is one of the near-countless reasons our team focuses on identifying the DOGS produced by the SIM and then reinforced by strong matchup fundamentals and other advanced analytics.

Now, let’s take a closer look at the supporting Black Jack system.

Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points

The following system has gone 51-21 hitting 71% winners and has made 35 units/unit wagered since 2013.

Play against road teams.

With a hot starting pitcher sporting a WHIP of 1.100 or lower  over his last 10 games.

After a game where the bullpen was hit hard for 4 or more earned runs.

This system is a perfect 3-0 making 3.2 units and 29-13 making 19.2 units over the last three seasons.

The spreadsheet below shows the results for when the Houston Astros lost a game by at least 8 runs, used four pitchers, and playing on the road since 2013. The ROI for this query has produced a very nice 21%.

Methodology Discussion Points

If you are new to my service and wager methodologies, I utilize several methods of artificial intelligence ranging from back propagation to decision trees and weighted simulated projections. So, when these align, then I get the graded play. In this case, it clearly shows a solid reason to get on board the Detroit Tigers.