23-5 ATS Documented Super Bowl Record and Ryan's Best bet is a MAX 10-UNIT Bet and they have won 68% ATS over more than 5 seasons across all sports
All Sports Sides (+7716) 2612-2425 L5037 52%
Top Basketball Sides (+6645) 850-720 L1570 54%
NHL Money Lines (+4359) 133-109 L242 55%
NCAA-F Sides (+4024) 394-325 L719 55%
Football Sides (+3834) 1249-1116 L2365 53%
Top NBA Sides (+2998) 442-379 L821 54%
NFLX Picks (+2472) 49-23 L72 68%
Top NCAA-B Picks (+2225) 64-38 L102 63%
MLB Money Lines (+2201) 51-32 L83 61%
NFL Sides (+1591) 181-152 L333 54%
WNBA Picks (+1121) 52-37 L89 58%
Top CFL Picks (+703) 33-24 L57 58%
Soccer Picks (+545) 4-0 L4 100%
Top PGA Picks (+300) 3-0 L3 100%
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**3x Top 10 Basketball handicapper!**
**#6 ranked Overall handicapper on this site!**
**#3 ranked NCAA-B in 2010-11**
**#7 ranked NCAA-B in 2008-09**
**#7 ranked NCAA-B in 2014-15**
**#9 ranked NCAA-B in 2012-13**
**#9 ranked Overall in 2009**
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**3x Top 10 Basketball handicapper!**
**#4 ranked NCAA-B handicapper on this site!**
**#11 ranked Overall handicapper on this site!**
**#2 ranked NCAA-B in 2010-11**
**#6 ranked NCAA-B in 2014-15**
**#7 ranked NCAA-B in 2008-09**
**#9 ranked NCAA-B in 2012-13**
**#8 ranked Overall in 2009**
**#10 ranked Overall in 2011**
**#10 ranked Overall in 2016**
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Match Up | Pick | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rhode Island vs George Mason | Rhode Island +8½ -108 | Top Premium | 67-82 | Loss | -108 | Show |
Alabama vs Arkansas | Arkansas +4½ -108 | Top Premium | 85-81 | Win | 100 | Show |
Florida vs Auburn | OVER 156 -110 | Top Premium | 90-81 | Win | 100 | Show |
Blazers vs Wolves | Blazers +6½ -108 | Premium | 98-114 | Loss | -108 | Show |
Pacers vs Lakers | Pacers -4 -110 | Top Premium | 117-124 | Loss | -110 | Show |
Warriors vs Bulls | UNDER 239½ -115 | Top Premium | 132-111 | Loss | -115 | Show |
Pelicans vs Kings | Pelicans +7½ -108 | Premium | 118-123 | Win | 100 | Show |
Maple Leafs vs Canucks | Canucks +125 | Premium | 1-2 | Win | 125 | Show |
Raptors vs Rockets
8-Unit bet on the Rockets priced as 9-point favorites.
The following NBA betting algorithm has produced a 38-51 SU and 56-33-1 ATS for 63% winning bets since 2016. The requirements are:
Bet on a team coming off three consecutive road losses.
That team is play on no rest.
The opponent has a winning record.
76ers vs Bucks
8-Unit bet on the 76ers priced as a 1.5-point favorite.
Betting on teams priced between a 3.5 point favorite and a 3.5 point underdog that lost their last two games priced as a favorite and also lost the previous meeting to the current foe has earned a solid 55-27 ATS record for 67% winning bets since 2016.
The following NBA Basketball betting algorithm has produced a 54-37 SU (59%) record and a 57-31-3 ATS record good for 65% winning bets since 2018. The requirements are:
Bet on road teams avenging a same-season loss to the host.
The road team is coming off two road losses priced as favorites.
Temple vs Memphis
8-Unit bet on the OVER priced at 156.5 points.
8-Unit Bet on Temple priced as 13.5-point underdogs.
Consider betting 7-units on the Ove4r and 7 units on Temple and 2-units on a parlay betting Temple +13.5 points and OVER 156.5 points.
The following NCAA basketball betting algorithm has produced a 56-26 OVER record good for 68% winning bets. The requirements are:
Bet the OVER.
The home team has won 15 or more of their past 20 games.
That team has won 80% or more of their games.
The opponent has a winning record.
The total is priced between 150 and 160 points.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles
SUPER BOWL LIX
10-Unit bet on the Eagles priced as a 1.5-point underdog. I suggest taking the 1.5 points paying –110 vig and not the money line, which is around +105. We are getting points and paying 15 points more vig for them. Obviously, the analytics show that the Eagles will win this game by 6 or more points. However, what if the model is not quite right and Patrick scores a TD in waning seconds and the Chiefs win 28-27?
Live Betting Strategy: As the grid below shows, the first quarter on average is the lowest scoring one of the four quarters. Scoring increases significantly in the second quarter. So, if this game starts out slowly, look to bet a few units (optional) at 44.5 points.
I recommend betting 7-Units preflop on the Eagles and then look to add 3-Units if the Chiefs score the first TD to go up 10-0,10-3, or 7-3, 7-0, or 7-6 if the Eagles kick two field goals and the 6 points is not the result of a missed extra point. The danger here is that this never happens during the first half of action which would leave you with only a 7-unit bet but implies the Eagles would be winning the game. If you want more units bet preflop then adjust the remaining bets accordingly.
Since 2000, there have been an average of 3.70 lead changes in the Super Bowl. For the favorites, their largest lead has averaged 7.56 points while the respective underdogs have enjoyed a biggest lead averaging 11.26 points. During this span of 24 Super Bowls, the favorites has averaged a loss by 3.22 points. This means that we want to get on the Eagles after any Chiefs score, especially focused on Chief Touchdowns during the first half.
In Super Bowl 57:
Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes went 21/27/182/3/0, 6-44
KC ran the ball 26 times and passed 27.
Isiah Pacheco 15-76-TD, Jerick McKinnon 4-34, 3/15
Travis Kelce 6/81/TD (6)
JuJu Smith-Schuster 7/53 (9)
All other pass catchers combined for 5/33
Eagles
Eagles threw 38 passes to 32 rush attempts
Jalen Hurts 27/38/304/1/0, 15-70-3 TDs
Kenneth Gainwell, Miles Sanders, Boston Scott: 17-40, 5/29 (6)
A.J. Brown 6/96/TD (8)
DeVonta Smith 7/100 (9)
Dallas Goedert 6/60 (7)
All other pass catchers 3/19
Important note regarding Super Bowl 57. In my opinion, one of the reasons the Eagles had a great passing attack was due to the ‘ineligible man downfield’ penalties not being called that year. Since then, the league placed emphasis on calling that penalty. Why was it a ‘cheat code’ for the Eagles? Their elite offensive line was able to send players to the second level of the defense on RPO (read/pass options). When those plays were called, defenses were at a massive advantage, and Jalen Hurts had very easy options that led the team to consistently picking up big chunks of yardage. Can we say that every team had that advantage? Maybe. But the combination of the elite (and very athletic) offensive line, Hurts and the great wide receivers were a trio that specifically had the maximum advantage and leveraged that advantage frequently. Since the league began enforcing that penalty, the Eagles no longer have that advantage.
From my Predictive model:The Eagles will pound the ball and then pound the ball again. This simple fact will steadily wear down the Chiefs defense, who has not faced an offensive line as great as the Eagles – even with the OL not all at even 90% due to nagging injuries. The two weeks off has been gold for this unit and a much greater benefit then for the Chiefs. So, the Eagles are projected to gain at least 165 rushing yards, have a 2 or more-minute edge in time of possession and have the same or fewer turnovers, and score 25 or more points.
So, in last Super Bowls in which a team gained over 150 rushing yards saw them go 6-2 SUATS. In all playoff games, teams that have gained 150 or more rushing yards have gone 180-60-2 (76%) and 174-71-5 ATS for 71% winning bets. If the team gaining175 or more rushing yards has seen them produce a 114-24 SU (83%), and 106-31-2 ATS record good for 77% winning bets.
In the playoffs, teams that have scored 25 or more points and gained 150 rushing yards have gone an impressive 134-13 SU (91%) and 123-24-1 ATS good for 84% winning bets; 4-1 SUATS in Super Bowls. Dogs that have scored 25 or more points have gone 9-3 SU and 10-2 ATS (83%) in Super Bowls.
Dogs that had the same or fewer turnovers have gone 12-6 SU and 14-4 ATS in the Super Bowls. If our dog scored 25 or more points and had the same or fewer turnovers has seen them go 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS for 90% winning bets.
Teams that had an edge in time-of-possession, the same or fewer turnovers, and scored 215 or more points are 10-0 DSU and 8-2 ATS and if a dog have produced an incredible 6-0 SUATS record. Dogs that gained 100 rushing yards, had an edge in time-of-possession, and had the same or fewer turnovers have gone 5-1 SUATS.
Teams that scored 25 or more points, had the same or fewer turnovers have gone 13-3 SU (81%) and 12-4 SATS for 75% winners. If these teams were priced as the dog, has seen them bark loudly and angrily with an 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS record for 90% winning bets.
Under head coach Sirianni, his Eagles are 30-3 SU and 24-8-1 ATS when they have scored 25 or more points, had the same or fewer turnovers. When his teams met this pair of performance measures, and they gained 125 or more rushing yards has seen them go 25-1 SU and 20-5-1 ATS for 80% winners; when gaining 150 or more rushing yards, they have gone 21-1 SU and 17-4-1 ATS for 81% winning bets.
Andy Reid as the head coach of the Chiefs is just 8-15 SU and 6-17 ATS for 26% winning bets when allowing 25 or more points, having the same or turnovers, and allowing 125 or rushing yards.
I have a whole lot more research on this game but chose not to be overwhelming. If however, you want to see the details of the rest of the research, simply send me a message to johnryansportsgmail or find me on the X.
John Ryan brings a wealth of handicapping experience to the table. He has been capping football, basketball, and baseball for 18 years, and it shows.
John has developed not only a winning strategy over time, but a winning philosophy. He focuses on the long-term outcomes and growing your bankroll gradually. And how does he do that? With sophisticated data-driven handicapping methods.
Advanced metrics are giving people new ways to analyze sports in every way. So John Ryan has found a way to incorporate these stats in sports handicapping as well.
In his method, there is no “going with your gut” or “emotional analysis.” It’s all about the science. He rates games the way financial analysts rate a stock. There’s no “feeling lucky” in stocks, decisions are made after after heavy analysis.
That’s how John handles his picks, and sometimes they end up seeming contrarian. But before you judge the method, judge the results.
John has 19 finishes in the top 10 of football, basketball, baseball and even hockey since 2009. That’s including a #1 finish in football, and #2 finishes in NHL, NFL and college football.
He hit 69% of his college football picks against the spread in 2015, and carries a 62% streak into the 2016 season. Meanwhile, his college basketball streak has earned over $2,000 on a 54% winning clip. And that’s just the surface.
John’s way of handicapping is new, and unlike anyone else’s. Such an advanced system might scare off some people who are tied to traditional methods. But his results speak for themselves, and he looks to only get more accurate he gets more data.