John Ryan

Miami Dolphins vs Washington Commanders
1:00 ET | FOX
FedEx Field
8-Unit Best Bet OVER the posted total currently priced at 49.5 points and is valid up to and including 51.5 points.

The weather in the DC region is not going to be a factor in this game and current forecasts are for no rain to start to the game. Temps are milder than normal for this time of year.

The Commanders rank last or near last in 10 of my defense power ratings. They rank last in scoring defense, points per play allowed, TDs allowed per game, third-worst in passing yards allowed per game. Miami ranks second in scoring offense, first in offensive yards per game, first in points-per-play, first in yards gained per play, first in red zone scoring percentage, first in TDs scored per game. Get the point?

Betting on the Over in a game priced between 42.5 and 49 points that features a road team scoring at least 28 PPG on the season and is coming off two consecutive games in which they allowed 14 or fewer points in each one has produced a highly profitable 22-7 for 76% winning bets over the past 30 seasons. If our road team is the favorite, the Over has gone 20-6 for 77% winning bets over the past five seasons. Plus, if we increase the PPG to 30 PPG, this system has gone 11-4 OVER for 73% winning bets for the base part of this system.

San Francisco 49ers vs Philadelphia Eagles
4:25 PM EST | FOX

Lincoln Financial Field
5-Unit best bet on the OVER 48 points and is valid up to 49.5 points

This is game 4 of the 6-game gauntlet of having to facing winning record teams, who are also playoff and divisional contenders. The game will be the third one in the past 13 days and coming off the OT and come from behind win over the Bills last Sunday adds the fatigue factor the Eagles team is dealing with. However, the entire betting world is on the 49ers and I did put out a betting angle and breakdown supporting the 49ers earlier the week on many shows including ESPN Syracuse. My appetite to bet the 49ers has been reduced to a tepid one to say the least as I find it extremely difficult to fade this Eagles team is 28-2 with Hurts under center. They may be getting smoked in games in the box score, but the style points just do not matter to a team that is 10-1 and has will to win second to none. Yet, the total in this game is the opportunity presented by the models.

Betting on the Over in a game priced between 42.5 and 49 points that features a road team scoring at least 28 PPG on the season and is coming off two consecutive games in which they allowed 14 or fewer points in each one has produced a highly profitable 22-7 for 76% winning bets over the past 30 seasons. If our road team is the favorite, the Over has gone 20-6 for 77% winning bets over the past five seasons.

Denver Broncos vs Houston Texans
1:00 ET | CBS
NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
8-Unit Best bet OVER the posted total of 47.5 points and is valid up to 48.5 points.

This is the highest total each of these teams have played in and stands to reason given the various matchups favoring a much higher scoring affair than is expected.

Betting on the Over in a game with a total priced at 47 or more points with one of the teams (Texans) coming off a three or fewer point loss to a divisional foe and with the game taking place in December has earned a solid 24-11-1 for 69% winning bets since 1996.

Betting the Over in a game with a total priced between 45 and 49.5 points that is coming off a loss of fewer than 7 points to a divisional foe and with the game taking place in the second half of the season has earned a 31-13-1 record good for 71% winning bets over the past five seasons.

Kansas City vs Green Bay Packers
Lambeau Field
8:20 ET | NBC
8-Unit bet on the Packers plus the 6 points and is good to 5.5 points.

Betting on dogs that are coming off two consecutive wins priced as the underdog in each one and has won between 40 and 49% of their 8 or more games played on the season has earned a solid 28-10-2. ATS for 74% winners over the past 30 seasons and is 6-0 ATS and 4-2 SU since 2019.

Chiefs are 1-7 ATS when coming off an ATS win and facing a foe also coming of an ATS win.

Chiefs are 0-6 ATS coming off a win in which that opponent had a double-digit lead.

Chiefs are 1-10 ATS coming off a double-digit win.

From the predictive model, the Packers are 29-2 SU and 27-4 ATS (87%) when scoring 21 or more points and forcing 2 or more opponent turnovers in home games since 2014.

Detroit Lions vs New Orleans Saints
Caesars Superdome
1:00 ET | FOX
Lions -4.5 | 47.5-point total

Betting on teams that have won 60% or more of their games after having played at least 8 games and is coming off a home loss have gone 63-28 SU and 61-28-2 ATS for 69% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.

The Lions defense has been getting better each week with the exception of the Thanksgiving Day loss to the Packers. However, winning teams at this point of the season refocus after a humiliating home loss and get back on track. The Lions defense ranks 11th in the NFL having allowed 1038 yards after the catch or 94 yards per game this season.

On offense the Lions have been outstanding in the passing game ranking 6th with 1,411 yards gained after the catch. I do not see the Saints being able to contain the Lions ariel attack and see the Lions winning this one fairly easily.

Longwood vs Morgan State
8-Unit On Longwood minus the 10 points and is valid up to 11.5 points.

From the predictive model, we learn that Longwood is 10-2 Ats when scoring 75 to 80 points and MS is just 1-8 ASTS when allowing 75 to 80 points over the last three seasons.

Betting on favorites between -4.5 and -11.5 points that have won each of their last three games by double-digits and facing a foe that has trailed in each of their last three games at the half by 5 or more points has produced a 21-2 SU record and 16-6-1 ATS mark for 73% winning bets over the past 15 seasons.