The NFL futures market can be pretty tough to beat. That’s especially the case when you’re betting against the odds to win the Super Bowl, the conference, and the divisions. The value really just isn’t there.
That said, the futures market can be a great way to make some money if you know what you’re doing. It’s important to understand the different types of bets available and how to use them to your advantage.
One of the most popular types of NFL futures bets is on season win totals. This type of bet involves predicting how many games a team will win during the regular season. If you think a team will win more games than the oddsmakers predict, you would bet the over. If you think they’ll win fewer games, you would bet the under.
There are a few things to keep in mind when betting on season win totals. First, you need to understand the strength of the team’s schedule. You also need to be aware of how a team performed last year. While not an exact science, most NFL teams do not under or over perform by much compared to last year. The exception to this rule seems to be at the edges, where teams that had three or fewer or twelve or more wins last season tend to progress/regress at a larger margin than, say, a team with seven wins last season.
Finally, you need to factor in the odds when making your bet. As the market matures, you’ll see the price of each win total adjust. Most books open the over/under around -115 on each side, then shade that price based on the money coming in on that side of the wager. For example, if the Bills opened at 10.5 wins -115 on each side, by the time the season starts the Bills might be -150 over 10.5 wins and +110 under 10.5 wins. This means that the market feels strongly that the Bill will win at least 11 games this upcoming season. The trick will be deciding whether or you not you think the market is right in its analysis and if there is any value on either side of the wager.
A lot of books put out their lines for every matchup of the NFL season before the season starts. You can use these in general to come up with a rough estimate of their expected wins. The only problem with that method is that this is generally how the books come up with their win totals, so you will need to find a unique angle when looking at the schedule. Maybe there are lines for a week that don’t look right to you, or you think this is a spot where a team has a good chance of winning outright as a projected underdog.
Here are some additional tips for winning at NFL futures betting:
|Team||Division||2022 Wins||2023 Win Total||Over||Under||+/- Wins|
|Cincinnati Bengals||AFC North||12||11.5||+115||-145||-0.5|
|Kansas City Chiefs||AFC West||14||11.5||-140||+110||-2.5|
|Philadelphia Eagles||NFC East||14||11.5||-105||-125||-2.5|
|Baltimore Ravens||AFC North||10||10.5||-105||-125||0.5|
|Buffalo Bills||AFC East||13||10.5||-140||+110||-2.5|
|San Francisco 49ers||NFC West||13||10.5||-150||+120||-2.5|
|Cleveland Browns||AFC North||7||9.5||+110||-140||2.5|
|Dallas Cowboys||NFC East||12||9.5||-170||+140||-2.5|
|Detroit Lions||NFC North||9||9.5||-140||+110||0.5|
|Jacksonville Jaguars||AFC South||9||9.5||-145||+115||0.5|
|Los Angeles Chargers||AFC West||10||9.5||-135||+105||-0.5|
|Miami Dolphins||AFC East||9||9.5||-125||-105||0.5|
|New York Jets||AFC East||7||9.5||-130||+100||2.5|
|New Orleans Saints||NFC South||7||9||-115||-115||2.0|
|Atlanta Falcons||NFC South||7||8.5||-130||+100||1.5|
|Denver Broncos||AFC West||5||8.5||-105||-125||3.5|
|Minnesota Vikings||NFC North||13||8.5||-130||+100||-4.5|
|Pittsburgh Steelers||AFC North||9||8.5||-160||+130||-0.5|
|Seattle Seahawks||NFC West||9||8.5||-160||+130||-0.5|
|Carolina Panthers||NFC South||7||7.5||-125||-105||0.5|
|Chicago Bears||NFC North||3||7.5||-115||-105||4.5|
|Green Bay Packers||NFC North||8||7.5||-130||+100||-0.5|
|New England Patriots||AFC East||8||7.5||-125||-105||-0.5|
|New York Giants||NFC East||9||7.5||-115||-115||-1.5|
|Tennessee Titans||AFC South||7||7.5||+100||-130||0.5|
|Houston Texans||AFC South||3||6.5||+115||-145||3.5|
|Indianapolis Colts||AFC South||4||6.5||-135||+105||2.5|
|Las Vegas Raiders||AFC West||6||6.5||-130||+100||0.5|
|Los Angeles Rams||NFC West||5||6.5||-130||+100||1.5|
|Tampa Bay Bucs||NFC South||8||6.5||+115||-145||-1.5|
|Washington Commanders||NFC East||8||6.5||+110||-140||-1.5|
|Arizona Cardinals||NFC West||4||4.5||-105||-125||0.5|