The NFL futures market can be pretty tough to beat. That’s especially the case when you’re betting against the odds to win the Super Bowl, the conference, and the divisions. The value really just isn’t there.
Think about it. If you’re betting a team to win the Super Bowl, you only have a 1-in-32 shot of cashing that wager essentially. The bettors who had the Falcons at 100/1 at the beginning of the 2016 season were feeling great when they were up 28-3 in the Super Bowl against the Patriots, and they still didn’t cash those tickets.
There will only be two conference winners as well, which is basically a 1-in-16 chance. You have a 1-in-4 chance to win a bet on the division, but more times than not you’ll be laying juice on a favorite, which is rarely worth your time.
The NFL futures market that I feel is the most beatable with the fairest odds is with the season win totals. Most of them are around -120 odds, which is similar betting the spread on a game. Unlike the Super Bowl odds, where you can only bet ON a team, you can actually bet AGAINST teams on the season win totals market.
The season win totals give the handicapper a chance to actually go through the schedule and predict which games a team will win and lose. Most books have odds on every game through Week 16 up before the season starts, so you can see which games a certain team will be favorites and underdogs in. By using these week-by-week lines, you can make a reasonable guess as to how many games each team will win (we will provide this in an update once all line estimates are out).
This year’s first-available win totals will be posted as soon as they are available. This year’s other Super Bowl/NFL futures will show until the win totals get posted. They are typically posted in or around April after the NFL draft.