The NFL futures market can be pretty tough to beat. That’s especially the case when you’re betting against the odds to win the Super Bowl, the conference, and the divisions. The value really just isn’t there.
Think about it. If you’re betting a team to win the Super Bowl, you only have a 1-in-32 shot of cashing that wager essentially. The bettors who had the Falcons at 100/1 at the beginning of the 2016 season were feeling great when they were up 28-3 in the Super Bowl against the Patriots, and they still didn’t cash those tickets.
There will only be two conference winners as well, which is basically a 1-in-16 chance. You have a 1-in-4 chance to win a bet on the division, but more times than not you’ll be laying juice on a favorite, which is rarely worth your time.
The NFL futures market that I feel is the most beatable with the fairest odds is with the season win totals. Most of them are around -115 odds, which is similar betting the spread on a game. Unlike the Super Bowl odds, where you can only bet ON a team, you can actually bet AGAINST teams on the season win totals market.
The season win totals give the handicapper a chance to actually go through the schedule and predict which games a team will win and lose. Most books have odds on every game through Week 16 up before the season starts, so you can see which games a certain team will be favorites and underdogs in. By using these week-by-week lines, you can make a reasonable guess as to how many games each team will win.
|Team||Division||2021 Wins||2022 Win Total||Over||Under||+/- Wins|
|Buffalo Bills||AFC East||11||11.5||-140||+110||0.5|
|Tampa Bay Bucs||NFC South||13||11.5||-115||-115||-1.5|
|Los Angeles Rams||NFC West||12||10.5||-110||-120||-1.5|
|Green Bay Packers||NFC North||13||10.5||-150||+120||-2.5|
|Los Angeles Chargers||AFC West||9||10.5||+100||-130||1.5|
|Kansas City Chiefs||AFC West||12||10.5||-115||-115||-1.5|
|Dallas Cowboys||NFC East||12||10||-115||-115||-2|
|Denver Broncos||AFC West||7||10||-105||-125||3|
|Indianapolis Colts||AFC South||9||9.5||-155||+125||0.5|
|Philadelphia Eagles||NFC East||9||9.5||-135||+105||0.5|
|Baltimore Ravens||AFC North||8||9.5||-155||+125||1.5|
|San Francisco 49ers||NFC West||10||9.5||-140||+110||-0.5|
|Cincinnati Bengals||AFC North||10||9.5||-135||+105||-0.5|
|Minnesota Vikings||NFC North||8||9||-115||-115||1|
|Tennessee Titans||AFC South||12||9||-115||-115||-3|
|New England Patriots||AFC East||10||8.5||-125||-105||-1.5|
|New Orleans Saints||NFC South||9||8.5||-125||-105||-0.5|
|Las Vegas Raiders||AFC West||10||8.5||-135||+105||-1.5|
|Arizona Cardinals||NFC West||11||8.5||-115||-115||-2.5|
|Miami Dolphins||AFC East||9||8.5||-135||+105||-0.5|
|Washington Commanders||NFC East||7||8||+100||-130||1|
|Pittsburgh Steelers||AFC North||9||7.5||-105||-125||-1.5|
|New York Giants||NFC East||4||7||-115||-115||3|
|Chicago Bears||NFC North||6||6.5||+120||-150||0.5|
|Carolina Panthers||NFC South||5||6.5||-115||-115||1.5|
|Detroit Lions||NFC North||3||6.5||-135||+105||3.5|
|Jacksonville Jaguars||AFC South||3||6||-130||+100||3|
|New York Jets||AFC East||4||6||-115||-115||2|
|Seattle Seahawks||NFC West||7||5.5||-135||+105||-1.5|
|Atlanta Falcons||NFC South||4||4.5||-115||-115||0.5|
|Houston Texans||AFC South||4||4.5||-115||-115||0.5|
|Cleveland Browns||AFC North||8||N/A||N/A||N/A||N/A|