Vegas Odds to Win the 2018-19 College Football Playoff & Championship

The odds to win college football’s playoff have recently been updated.  The table below shows the futures odds on each team (if available) from 5Dimes sportsbook.  We love 5Dimes for betting college football because of their reduced juice option, which gives you a built-in discount on every bet you place!

Included in our odds table is the implied win probability for each team based on the odds given.  This can make it easier to visualize just how likely the books think it is that a certain team will win.  We’ve also included a change column, which shows how much a team’s odds have improved or decreased since our last update.  The MOV column represents the average margin of victory so far this season for that team. Later in the season this can be helpful for setting your own odds or power rankings.

Vegas Betting Favorites to Win the 2018 College Football Playoff

It is starting to sound like a broken record, but Alabama is again the favorite to win the next college football playoff.  Also near the top of the list you will find other teams that either made the playoff last year (Clemson, Georgia, Oklahoma) or just missed the final four (Ohio State).

The field has been narrowed to just seven possible teams to make the playoff, with really only six of the teams being given a realistic shot. Central Florida carries a perfect record and could stay perfect with a win over Memphis in their Conference Championship game, but they still won’t have a strong enough resume to qualify for the playoff.

It’s almost a foregone conclusion that Alabama will be in. Even if they lose to Georgia in the SEC title game this week, there’s a strong possibility they will still qualify for the final four. The same goes for Clemson, though they might find it more difficult to make it should they lose to Pitt in the ACC Championship. Notre Dame is in. They have no conference championship and are now just waiting to see who they will play in the first round. After the top three, things start to get interesting.  Georgia is given the best odds of the lot, however, a loss to Alabama this week will knock them down significantly. Ohio State has the next best odds. The Buckeyes haven’t been dominant, but they keep finding ways to win and if they beat Northwestern in the Big Ten Championship, they will very likely be playing come playoff time. Oklahoma needs some help. They need to beat Texas again first and foremost, then they likely need both Georgia and Ohio State to lose in their conference championship games. We don’t have access to exactly how the playoff rankings work, but it looks like if everyone wins (outside of Alabama/Georgia, who play each other), the Final Four will end up like our projections below.

Projected College Football Playoff Final Four

Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame, Ohio State

Projected CFB Playoff Matchup

Alabama vs Clemson

Projected Playoff Winner

Alabama

Here’s a look at all of the teams with available odds to win the championship this year, courtesy of 5Dimes.

Odds to Win 2018-2019 CFB National Title

Team 2018 Record Conference 2018 MOV Odds Change CFB Playoff
Alabama 8-0 SEC (West) 35.5 -250 +50 61.37%
Clemson 8-0 ACC (Atlantic) 30.8 +350 +25 19.09%
Notre Dame 8-0 Ind 16.5 +1200 -200 6.61%
Georgia 7-1 SEC (East) 26.7 +1600 -600 5.05%
Ohio State 7-1 Big Ten (East) 17.5 +1850 -650 4.41%
Oklahoma 7-1 Big 12 17.5 +2500 -1000 3.30%
Central Florida 7-0 American (East) 22.2 +50000 -44000 0.17%

NCAA Football Championship Value Bets

Alabama (-250), Georgia (+1600)

You might scoff at listing the favorite as being one of the top value bets, but the fact of the matter is that all signs point to another Alabama championship.    Sophomore QB Tua Tagovailoa gives this team a legitimate run-pass threat that the Crimson Tide simply haven’t had in the past.  That makes them scary for the rest of college football.  The players – the coaching – the recruiting.  You simply can’t deny that Alabama is a well-oiled college football winning machine right now.  Betting against them is not advised.

With that being said, even the best teams in history are susceptible to bad games, and if Alabama falters, it’s likely another SEC team, I’m guessing Georgia, steps in and takes advantage.  The Bulldogs have incredible talent returning in the places it matters most.  The SEC is incredibly top-heavy, but those teams at the top are going to be hard for anyone else to compete with.

Read More Like This