Ricky's 1* play on UOU.
Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.
- The Astros are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games.
- The Phillies are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games.
- The Astros are 7-1 ATS in the last 8 head to head meetings.
Verdict: The value is on the road Underdog.
Wednesday's Free MLB Pick
PLAY ON: Cubs +118
1* Free Play on Guardians -106
Jack's Free Pick Wednesday: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-125)
The Dodgers still have a lot to play for here down the stretch despite already basically locking up the NL West. They are 1.5 games behind the Brewers for the #1 seed and 3 games ahead of the Braves for the #2 seed. At the very least, they want to finish Top 2 to get that bye.
The Dodgers have clearly been playing with some urgency during their current 6-game winning streak. They look to sweep the Reds, who are 69-76 on the season are completely out of contention. But the biggest reason I'm on the Dodgers today is their massive advantage on the mound tonight.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been one of the most reliable starters in baseball. He is 12-8 with a 2.67 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in 25 starts this season with 19 of those being quality starts. Yamamoto has owned the Reds, allowing one earned run in 13 2/3 innings with 18 K's in his last two starts against them for a 0.66 ERA.
Rhett Lowder is one of the worst starters in baseball. He is 6-9 with a 5.43 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in 22 starts and three relief appearances this season. Lowder has been very poor on the road, going 4-7 with a 6.79 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in 13 starts away from home while allowing 44 earned runs in 58 1/3 innings.
The Dodgers are 9-1 in their last 10 meetings with the Reds with seven wins by 2 runs or more. Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Wednesday.
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1* MLB - Rockies/Yankees FREE PICK on Yankees -1.5 (-115)
Dave's Wednesday Free Play:
1* on Cubs/Brewers UNDER 7.5
The Key: This is a rematch from September 3rd when the Cubs beat the Brewers 2-1 in an absolute pitcher's dual between Kevin Gausman and Logan Henderson. The teams combined for just 3 runs on 8 hits. Gausman yielded one ER in 7 innings with 9 strikeouts. Henderson yielded 2 ER in 7 innings with 7 strikeouts and only 3 base runners allowed. Henderson is 9-3 with a 2.48 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in 15 starts this year, and 5-0 with a 2.08 ERA and 0.80 WHIP in 7 home starts. Take the UNDER.
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R&R Totals FREE MLB Over-Under Wednesday 9-9-26
OVER 8 1/2 Cleveland/Baltimore
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Wednesday’s free winner: Boston Red Sox on the runline.
Game 970.
3:45 PM PST/6:45 PM EST.
Don’t look now, but the Boston Red Sox have been one of the hottest teams in baseball for several months. In the most competitive division in the Major’s, they sit in third place at 80-66. My friends, what can we say about the Los Angeles Angels? Not only do they possess the poorest record in the American League, they own the worst record in all of baseball at 55-90. While Boston is looking for the American League East crown, Los Angeles is making plans for October. The Red Sox have taken four of five meetings in 2026 against their American League rival, but lost Game 2 of the series yesterday getting bested, 6-1. They will bounce back here today and put a hurt on the Angels. By the way, FYI, there four previous victories this season in this rivalry have all come by two runs or better. You can expect to see Ryan Jonsson and Jake Bennett as starters here. The Los Angeles right-hander is 3-8 with a 5.17 ERA as the team has dropped 10 of his 15 turns in 2026. On the road this season, he is a dismal 1-5 with a whopping 5.72 ERA. The Boston left-hander is 9-6 with a respectable ERA of 3.34 as the team has won nine of his previous 12 outings. Over his last three turns, he is 2-0 with a 2.84 ERA, and at home in 2026, he owns a 5-3 record. Very simply, the Red Sox are a better team, owning better statistics both at the plate and on the mound. Take Boston on the runline. Thank you.
I like the Miami Marlins to avoid the series sweep on Wednesday. The reason is simple; I think they have the clear edge in starting pitching. Janson Junk has a 4.00 ERA to Robert Stock’s 5.81 ERA. Stock enters the matchup 1-3 on the season and is also coming off thoracic outlet surgery as he makes his return to the Mets rotation.
In addition to boasting a better ERA, Junk has had success against New York this season. The Marlin’s righty picked up a win against the Mets back on July 31 while tossing five quality innings. Miami is also 5-3 in starts where Junk is set as the money-line favorite. That metric applies for Wednesday as the Marlins are sitting around -120 on the money-line.
New York took games one and two in this series, but Miami still plated five runs Tuesday and nearly made it a game before falling. Considering they have the clear advantage in starting pitchers and are in a great spot to bounce back at home, I think Miami wins.
Free Play on Red Sox -200
My selection is on Chicago over San Francisco at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday.
The Pirates jumped ahead early and cruised the rest of the way in a 9-3 victory last night. We'll call for the White Sox to rebound on Wednesday. Davis Martin gets the start for Chicago. He was really struggling before righting the ship in his most recent outing. Martin allowed just five hits over 5 2/3 shutout innings against the Astros. He needed only 80 pitches to get through that outing and I look for him to build off of that performance here. Lake Bachar will get another turn in the Pirates starting rotation. As usual, he figures to have a short leash - likely seeing just a couple of innings of work. Bachar owns an inflated 5.72 FIP in nine appearances since joining Pittsburgh by way of Miami. Pittsburgh's bullpen has been good but certainly not great this season. Of note, the Buccos have converted only 15 saves while blowing 14 on the road this season. Take Chicago (8*).
Our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers to defeat the Cincinnati Reds on Wednesday at 10:10pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:
Cincinnati will start Rhett Lowder -- He is 4-7 with an awful 6.79 earned run average in road games this season.
The Reds are just 41-59 against opponents within the National League this year after losing the first two games of this series.
Los Angeles will start Yoshinobu Yamamoto -- He has an earned run average of 2.67 and a whip of 0.90 this year.
The Dodgers seem to be clicking on all cylinders right now, winning six games in a row.
They are now 46-28 in games played at home.
The play is on the Dodgers.
Cubs vs Brewers MLB Free Pick
The Angle(s): Milwaukee turns to right-hander Logan Henderson (9-3, 2.48 ERA), who continues his breakout campaign as one of the most reliable arms in the National League. Henderson has allowed two or fewer earned runs in seven of his last eight starts and sports a minuscule 0.79 WHIP, consistently limiting traffic on the base paths. The Brewers have been exceptionally dominant with Henderson on the bump, winning 8 of his 11 starts when installed as moneyline favorites.
The Cubs turn to veteran righty Kevin Gausman (9-11, 4.38 ERA), who continues to navigate an inconsistent campaign. While Gausman turned in a quality start against Milwaukee last week, his elevated 4.38 ERA and .255 opponent batting average reflect broader underlying vulnerabilities that have plagued him on the road. In fact, the Cubs have dropped seven of Gausman's nine starts this season when taking the field as moneyline underdogs.
The Bet: Brewers (3%).
[1%] Free Play on Phillies under 8 +100
Free Pick on Royals -101
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