A season win total asks for a decision before the first snap: how many wins will a team collect across 12 games, and is the number the book set fair. The entry price matters more here than in almost any other bet, since there is no live line to fix a bad number once the season is underway.
This page compares 5 sportsbooks, including DraftKings, FanDuel, BetRivers, BetMGM, Caesars, and shows the best price on the over and the best price on the under for every College football team on the board. Lines were last updated September 8, 2026, and the numbers below refresh as the books move.
| Team | Total | Over · Under | Last | Record | Pace | Where it stands |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Texas Tech | 11.5 | o +148 FanDuelu -184 FanDuel | 11 +0.5 | 3-0 | 12 | On pace for overneeds 9 of 9 |
| 2Georgia | 10.5 | o +130 DraftKingsu -148 FanDuel | 11 -0.5 | 3-0 | 12 | On pace for overneeds 8 of 9 |
| 3Indiana | 10.5 | o +105 DraftKingsu -104 FanDuel | 12 -1.5 | 3-0 | 12 | On pace for overneeds 8 of 9 |
| 4Miami | 10.5 | o -180 DraftKingsu +150 DraftKings | 10 +0.5 | 3-0 | 12 | On pace for overneeds 8 of 9 |
| 5Oregon | 10.5 | o +125 BetRiversu -140 BetMGM | 11 -0.5 | 2-1 | 8 | Under paceneeds 9 of 9 |
| 6Ohio State | 9.5 | o -178 FanDuelu +150 BetMGM | 12 -2.5 | 2-1 | 8 | Under paceneeds 8 of 9 |
| 7Penn State | 9.5 | o +110 BetRiversu -118 FanDuel | 6 +3.5 | 3-0 | 12 | On pace for overneeds 7 of 9 |
| 8Texas | 9.5 | o +122 FanDuelu -136 BetRivers | 9 +0.5 | 3-0 | 12 | On pace for overneeds 7 of 9 |
| 9Alabama | 8.5 | o -115 FanDuelu +105 BetMGM | 10 -1.5 | 3-0 | 12 | On pace for overneeds 6 of 9 |
| 10Boise State | 8.5 | o +144 DraftKingsu -125 BetRivers | 8 +0.5 | 2-1 | 8 | Under paceneeds 7 of 9 |
| 11BYU | 8.5 | o -150 DraftKingsu +140 FanDuel | 11 -2.5 | 3-0 | 12 | On pace for overneeds 6 of 9 |
| 12Houston | 8.5 | o +120 FanDuelu -136 DraftKings | 9 -0.5 | 2-1 | 8 | Under paceneeds 7 of 9 |
| 13James Madison | 8.5 | o -137 BetRiversu +140 FanDuel | 11 -2.5 | 3-0 | 12 | On pace for overneeds 6 of 9 |
| 14Kansas State | 8.5 | o -105 DraftKingsu -110 BetMGM | 6 +2.5 | 3-0 | 12 | On pace for overneeds 6 of 9 |
| 15Liberty | 8.5 | o +112 FanDuelu -125 BetMGM | 4 +4.5 | 2-1 | 8 | Under paceneeds 7 of 9 |
| 16Louisville | 8.5 | o +125 BetMGMu -150 BetMGM | 8 +0.5 | 2-1 | 8 | Under paceneeds 7 of 9 |
| 17LSU | 8.5 | o -115 BetRiversu +134 DraftKings | 7 +1.5 | 2-1 | 8 | Under paceneeds 7 of 9 |
| 18North Dakota State | 8.5 | o -145 Caesarsu +123 BetRivers | – | 4-0 | 12 | On pace for overneeds 5 of 8 |
| 19Oklahoma | 8.5 | o +140 DraftKingsu -125 BetMGM | 10 -1.5 | 2-1 | 8 | Under paceneeds 7 of 9 |
| 20SMU | 8.5 | o -136 DraftKingsu +138 BetRivers | 8 +0.5 | 2-1 | 8 | Under paceneeds 7 of 9 |
| 21South Florida | 8.5 | o +118 FanDuelu -130 DraftKings | 9 -0.5 | 3-0 | 12 | On pace for overneeds 6 of 9 |
| 22Texas A&M | 8.5 | o +126 FanDuelu -136 DraftKings | 11 -2.5 | 2-1 | 8 | Under paceneeds 7 of 9 |
| 23USC | 8.5 | o +100 DraftKingsu -110 FanDuel | 9 -0.5 | 4-0 | 12 | On pace for overneeds 5 of 8 |
| 24Utah | 8.5 | o -144 FanDuelu +120 BetMGM | 10 -1.5 | 3-0 | 12 | On pace for overneeds 6 of 9 |
| 25Virginia | 8.5 | o +115 BetMGMu -110 FanDuel | 10 -1.5 | 2-1 | 8 | Under paceneeds 7 of 9 |
| 26Air Force | 7.5 | o +130 DraftKingsu -127 BetRivers | 4 +3.5 | 1-1 | 6 | Under paceneeds 7 of 10 |
| 27Arizona | 7.5 | o +110 FanDuelu -120 DraftKings | 9 -1.5 | 2-1 | 8 | On pace for overneeds 6 of 9 |
| 28Army | 7.5 | o -120 BetRiversu +110 FanDuel | 6 +1.5 | 1-1 | 6 | Under paceneeds 7 of 10 |
| 29Clemson | 7.5 | o +145 BetMGMu -160 DraftKings | 7 +0.5 | 2-1 | 8 | On pace for overneeds 6 of 9 |
| 30East Carolina | 7.5 | o +135 BetMGMu -128 FanDuel | 8 -0.5 | 1-2 | 4 | Under paceneeds 7 of 9 |
| 31Florida | 7.5 | o +130 BetMGMu -154 FanDuel | 4 +3.5 | 3-0 | 12 | On pace for overneeds 5 of 9 |
| 32Hawai’i Warriors | 7.5 | o +140 BetMGMu -165 BetMGM | – | – | ||
| 33Iowa | 7.5 | o -156 DraftKingsu +135 BetMGM | 8 -0.5 | 3-0 | 12 | On pace for overneeds 5 of 9 |
| 34Jacksonville State | 7.5 | o +140 DraftKingsu -121 BetRivers | 8 -0.5 | 2-2 | 6 | Under paceneeds 6 of 8 |
| 35Louisiana | 7.5 | o +105 DraftKingsu -110 FanDuel | 6 +1.5 | 2-1 | 8 | On pace for overneeds 6 of 9 |
| 36Marshall | 7.5 | o +115 DraftKingsu -115 BetMGM | 5 +2.5 | 2-1 | 8 | On pace for overneeds 6 of 9 |
| 37Memphis | 7.5 | o -105 BetMGMu -115 BetMGM | 8 -0.5 | 3-1 | 9 | On pace for overneeds 5 of 8 |
| 38Miami (OH) | 7.5 | o +134 DraftKingsu -125 BetMGM | 7 +0.5 | 1-2 | 4 | Under paceneeds 7 of 9 |
| 39Michigan | 7.5 | o +140 FanDuelu -146 DraftKings | 9 -1.5 | 3-0 | 12 | On pace for overneeds 5 of 9 |
| 40Navy | 7.5 | o -160 BetMGMu +140 BetRivers | 10 -2.5 | 1-1 | 6 | Under paceneeds 7 of 10 |
| 41New Mexico | 7.5 | o -180 DraftKingsu +150 DraftKings | 9 -1.5 | 2-1 | 8 | On pace for overneeds 6 of 9 |
| 42Old Dominion Monarchs | 7.5 | o +110 DraftKingsu +100 BetMGM | 9 -1.5 | 1-2 | 4 | Under paceneeds 7 of 9 |
| 43Ole Miss | 7.5 | o -166 DraftKingsu +135 BetRivers | 11 -3.5 | 3-0 | 12 | On pace for overneeds 5 of 9 |
| 44Pittsburgh | 7.5 | o -148 FanDuelu +150 BetMGM | 8 -0.5 | 3-0 | 12 | On pace for overneeds 5 of 9 |
| 45San Diego State | 7.5 | o +130 DraftKingsu -134 FanDuel | 9 -1.5 | 1-2 | 4 | Under paceneeds 7 of 9 |
| 46Tennessee | 7.5 | o -125 BetRiversu +120 BetMGM | 8 -0.5 | 3-0 | 12 | On pace for overneeds 5 of 9 |
| 47Toledo | 7.5 | o +105 DraftKingsu +115 BetRivers | 8 -0.5 | 2-1 | 8 | On pace for overneeds 6 of 9 |
| 48UNLV | 7.5 | o -150 DraftKingsu +135 BetRivers | 10 -2.5 | 1-2 | 4 | Under paceneeds 7 of 9 |
| 49UTSA | 7.5 | o -128 FanDuelu +120 BetMGM | 6 +1.5 | 2-1 | 8 | On pace for overneeds 6 of 9 |
| 50Virginia Tech | 7.5 | o +134 DraftKingsu -124 FanDuel | 3 +4.5 | 3-0 | 12 | On pace for overneeds 5 of 9 |
| 51Washington | 7.5 | o -160 FanDuelu +140 BetRivers | 8 -0.5 | 3-0 | 12 | On pace for overneeds 5 of 9 |
| 52Western Michigan | 7.5 | o +145 BetMGMu +144 DraftKings | 8 -0.5 | 2-1 | 8 | On pace for overneeds 6 of 9 |
| 53Arizona State | 6.5 | o -128 FanDuelu +110 BetMGM | 8 -1.5 | 2-1 | 8 | On pace for overneeds 5 of 9 |
| 54Arkansas State Red Wolves | 6.5 | o +128 FanDuelu -139 BetRivers | 6 +0.5 | 1-2 | 4 | Under paceneeds 6 of 9 |
| 55Auburn | 6.5 | o -125 BetRiversu +118 FanDuel | 5 +1.5 | 2-1 | 8 | On pace for overneeds 5 of 9 |
| 56Central Michigan | 6.5 | o +140 DraftKingsu -135 BetMGM | 7 -0.5 | 2-1 | 8 | On pace for overneeds 5 of 9 |
| 57Delaware Fightin Blue Hens | 6.5 | o +115 BetMGMu -128 FanDuel | – | – | ||
| 58Florida International | 6.5 | o +115 BetRiversu -124 FanDuel | 7 -0.5 | 1-2 | 4 | Under paceneeds 6 of 9 |
| 59Fresno State | 6.5 | o -104 FanDuelu +125 BetMGM | 8 -1.5 | 2-1 | 8 | On pace for overneeds 5 of 9 |
| 60Illinois | 6.5 | o -146 DraftKingsu +126 FanDuel | 8 -1.5 | 2-1 | 8 | On pace for overneeds 5 of 9 |
| 61Kennesaw State | 6.5 | o +100 BetMGMu +105 DraftKings | 9 -2.5 | 1-2 | 4 | Under paceneeds 6 of 9 |
| 62Minnesota | 6.5 | o +122 FanDuelu -145 BetMGM | 7 -0.5 | 2-1 | 8 | On pace for overneeds 5 of 9 |
| 63Missouri | 6.5 | o -104 FanDuelu +100 DraftKings | 8 -1.5 | 3-0 | 12 | On pace for overneeds 4 of 9 |
| 64Nebraska | 6.5 | o +115 DraftKingsu -105 BetMGM | 7 -0.5 | 3-0 | 12 | On pace for overneeds 4 of 9 |
| 65North Carolina State | 6.5 | o -110 DraftKingsu -105 BetMGM | – | – | ||
| 66Ohio | 6.5 | o -120 BetMGMu +105 BetRivers | 8 -1.5 | 1-2 | 4 | Under paceneeds 6 of 9 |
| 67South Carolina | 6.5 | o +110 BetMGMu +100 DraftKings | 4 +2.5 | 2-1 | 8 | On pace for overneeds 5 of 9 |
| 68TCU | 6.5 | o +130 BetMGMu -130 DraftKings | 8 -1.5 | 2-1 | 8 | On pace for overneeds 5 of 9 |
| 69Texas State | 6.5 | o +120 DraftKingsu +112 FanDuel | 6 +0.5 | 1-2 | 4 | Under paceneeds 6 of 9 |
| 70Troy | 6.5 | o -150 DraftKingsu +142 FanDuel | 8 -1.5 | 2-1 | 8 | On pace for overneeds 5 of 9 |
| 71Tulane | 6.5 | o +110 DraftKingsu -105 FanDuel | 10 -3.5 | 1-2 | 4 | Under paceneeds 6 of 9 |
| 72UCLA | 6.5 | o -143 BetRiversu +140 BetMGM | 3 +3.5 | 3-0 | 12 | On pace for overneeds 4 of 9 |
| 73Western Kentucky | 6.5 | o +110 FanDuelu +150 BetMGM | 8 -1.5 | 0-3 | 0 | Under paceneeds 7 of 9 |
| 74Wisconsin | 6.5 | o -120 BetMGMu +122 FanDuel | 4 +2.5 | 2-1 | 8 | On pace for overneeds 5 of 9 |
| 75Appalachian State | 5.5 | o -167 BetRiversu +145 BetMGM | 5 +0.5 | 3-0 | 12 | On pace for overneeds 3 of 9 |
| 76Baylor | 5.5 | o -136 DraftKingsu +115 DraftKings | 5 +0.5 | 2-1 | 8 | On pace for overneeds 4 of 9 |
| 77Buffalo | 5.5 | o +138 FanDuelu +133 BetRivers | 5 +0.5 | 1-2 | 4 | Under paceneeds 5 of 9 |
| 78California | 5.5 | o +105 BetMGMu -125 BetMGM | 7 -1.5 | 2-1 | 8 | On pace for overneeds 4 of 9 |
| 79Cincinnati | 5.5 | o -122 FanDuelu +105 BetMGM | 7 -1.5 | 3-0 | 12 | On pace for overneeds 3 of 9 |
| 80Duke | 5.5 | o -182 BetRiversu +145 BetRivers | 7 -1.5 | 3-0 | 12 | On pace for overneeds 3 of 9 |
| 81Eastern Michigan | 5.5 | o +120 DraftKingsu +135 BetMGM | 4 +1.5 | 1-3 | 3 | Under paceneeds 5 of 8 |
| 82Florida Atlantic | 5.5 | o -148 FanDuelu +135 BetMGM | 4 +1.5 | 2-1 | 8 | On pace for overneeds 4 of 9 |
| 83Florida State | 5.5 | o -105 BetMGMu +115 DraftKings | 5 +0.5 | 1-2 | 4 | Under paceneeds 5 of 9 |
| 84Georgia Tech | 5.5 | o +130 BetMGMu -155 BetMGM | 9 -3.5 | 1-2 | 4 | Under paceneeds 5 of 9 |
| 85Kansas | 5.5 | o -142 FanDuelu +125 DraftKings | 5 +0.5 | 1-2 | 4 | Under paceneeds 5 of 9 |
| 86Louisiana Tech | 5.5 | o -148 BetRiversu +140 FanDuel | 7 -1.5 | 1-2 | 4 | Under paceneeds 5 of 9 |
| 87Maryland | 5.5 | o +102 FanDuelu -120 BetMGM | 4 +1.5 | 2-1 | 8 | On pace for overneeds 4 of 9 |
| 88North Carolina | 5.5 | o -110 DraftKingsu +110 FanDuel | 4 +1.5 | 2-1 | 8 | On pace for overneeds 4 of 9 |
| 89North Texas | 5.5 | o -120 BetMGMu +116 FanDuel | 11 -5.5 | 1-2 | 4 | Under paceneeds 5 of 9 |
| 90Northwestern | 5.5 | o -110 BetRiversu +100 BetRivers | 6 -0.5 | 2-0 | 12 | On pace for overneeds 4 of 10 |
| 91South Alabama | 5.5 | o -115 BetMGMu +120 DraftKings | 4 +1.5 | 2-1 | 8 | On pace for overneeds 4 of 9 |
| 92Temple | 5.5 | o -106 BetRiversu +115 DraftKings | 5 +0.5 | 1-2 | 4 | Under paceneeds 5 of 9 |
| 93Tulsa | 5.5 | o -130 BetRiversu +115 BetMGM | 4 +1.5 | 3-0 | 12 | On pace for overneeds 3 of 9 |
| 94UCF | 5.5 | o -155 BetRiversu +135 BetMGM | 5 +0.5 | 2-1 | 8 | On pace for overneeds 4 of 9 |
| 95UConn | 5.5 | o +120 BetMGMu -122 FanDuel | 9 -3.5 | 2-1 | 8 | On pace for overneeds 4 of 9 |
| 96Vanderbilt | 5.5 | o -104 FanDuelu +110 DraftKings | 10 -4.5 | 3-0 | 12 | On pace for overneeds 3 of 9 |
| 97Wake Forest | 5.5 | o -134 FanDuelu +130 BetMGM | 8 -2.5 | 2-1 | 8 | On pace for overneeds 4 of 9 |
| 98Washington State | 5.5 | o +148 FanDuelu -130 BetMGM | 6 -0.5 | 1-2 | 4 | Under paceneeds 5 of 9 |
| 99West Virginia | 5.5 | o -125 DraftKingsu +120 BetRivers | 4 +1.5 | 3-0 | 12 | On pace for overneeds 3 of 9 |
| 100Wyoming | 5.5 | o +148 FanDuelu +115 BetMGM | 4 +1.5 | 1-2 | 4 | Under paceneeds 5 of 9 |
| 101Akron | 4.5 | o +130 DraftKingsu -136 BetRivers | 5 -0.5 | 1-2 | 4 | Under paceneeds 4 of 9 |
| 102Bowling Green | 4.5 | o +128 FanDuelu +135 BetMGM | 4 +0.5 | 0-3 | 0 | Under paceneeds 5 of 9 |
| 103Coastal Carolina | 4.5 | o -135 BetMGMu +115 BetRivers | 6 -1.5 | 1-2 | 4 | Under paceneeds 4 of 9 |
| 104Colorado Buffaloes | 4.5 | o -150 FanDuelu +130 BetMGM | 3 +1.5 | 2-1 | 8 | On pace for overneeds 3 of 9 |
| 105Georgia Southern | 4.5 | o -158 FanDuelu +140 BetMGM | 6 -1.5 | 1-2 | 4 | Under paceneeds 4 of 9 |
| 106Iowa State | 4.5 | o -125 BetMGMu +116 FanDuel | 8 -3.5 | 2-1 | 8 | On pace for overneeds 3 of 9 |
| 107Kentucky | 4.5 | o -136 DraftKingsu +118 BetRivers | 5 -0.5 | 2-1 | 8 | On pace for overneeds 3 of 9 |
| 108Michigan State | 4.5 | o +100 BetRiversu -105 DraftKings | 4 +0.5 | 2-1 | 8 | On pace for overneeds 3 of 9 |
| 109Mississippi State | 4.5 | o -144 FanDuelu +125 DraftKings | 5 -0.5 | 3-0 | 12 | On pace for overneeds 2 of 9 |
| 110Nevada | 4.5 | o +105 BetRiversu -115 BetMGM | 3 +1.5 | 1-2 | 4 | Under paceneeds 4 of 9 |
| 111New Mexico State | 4.5 | o +105 BetRiversu -102 FanDuel | 4 +0.5 | 1-2 | 4 | Under paceneeds 4 of 9 |
| 112Oklahoma State | 4.5 | o -110 DraftKingsu -105 BetMGM | 1 +3.5 | 2-1 | 8 | On pace for overneeds 3 of 9 |
| 113Oregon State | 4.5 | o +120 BetMGMu +114 FanDuel | 2 +2.5 | 1-2 | 4 | Under paceneeds 4 of 9 |
| 114Sacramento State | 4.5 | o +142 FanDuelu -120 BetMGM | 0 +4.5 | 1-3 | 3 | Under paceneeds 4 of 8 |
| 115San Jose State | 4.5 | o -120 BetMGMu +100 BetMGM | – | – | ||
| 116Syracuse | 4.5 | o -150 DraftKingsu +142 FanDuel | 3 +1.5 | 1-2 | 4 | Under paceneeds 4 of 9 |
| 117Arkansas | 3.5 | o -130 FanDuelu +134 DraftKings | 2 +1.5 | 1-2 | 4 | On pace for overneeds 3 of 9 |
| 118Ball State | 3.5 | o -120 DraftKingsu +106 FanDuel | 4 -0.5 | 1-2 | 4 | On pace for overneeds 3 of 9 |
| 119Boston College | 3.5 | o +140 BetMGMu -125 DraftKings | 2 +1.5 | 2-1 | 8 | On pace for overneeds 2 of 9 |
| 120Colorado State | 3.5 | o -152 BetRiversu +145 BetMGM | 2 +1.5 | 2-1 | 8 | On pace for overneeds 2 of 9 |
| 121Georgia State | 3.5 | o -150 BetMGMu +130 FanDuel | 1 +2.5 | 2-1 | 8 | On pace for overneeds 2 of 9 |
| 122Kent State | 3.5 | o -105 DraftKingsu +100 BetMGM | 5 -1.5 | 1-2 | 4 | On pace for overneeds 3 of 9 |
| 123Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 3.5 | o -125 DraftKingsu +125 BetMGM | 3 +0.5 | 2-1 | 8 | On pace for overneeds 2 of 9 |
| 124Missouri State | 3.5 | o -144 FanDuelu +130 BetMGM | 7 -3.5 | 1-2 | 4 | On pace for overneeds 3 of 9 |
| 125Northern Illinois | 3.5 | o +136 FanDuelu -156 DraftKings | 3 +0.5 | 0-3 | 0 | Under paceneeds 4 of 9 |
| 126Rice | 3.5 | o -105 DraftKingsu -105 BetMGM | 5 -1.5 | 1-2 | 4 | On pace for overneeds 3 of 9 |
| 127Sam Houston State | 3.5 | o +125 BetMGMu -115 DraftKings | – | – | ||
| 128Southern Miss | 3.5 | o +100 BetRiversu +115 DraftKings | 7 -3.5 | 1-2 | 4 | On pace for overneeds 3 of 9 |
| 129Stanford | 3.5 | o -148 BetRiversu +130 DraftKings | 4 -0.5 | 1-2 | 4 | On pace for overneeds 3 of 9 |
| 130UAB | 3.5 | o -120 BetMGMu +100 BetMGM | 4 -0.5 | 1-2 | 4 | On pace for overneeds 3 of 9 |
| 131UL-Monroe | 3.5 | o +132 FanDuelu -105 BetMGM | – | – | ||
| 132UTEP | 3.5 | o +130 DraftKingsu -130 BetMGM | 2 +1.5 | 1-2 | 4 | On pace for overneeds 3 of 9 |
| 133Charlotte 49ers | 2.5 | o +120 BetMGMu -145 BetMGM | 1 +1.5 | 0-3 | 0 | Under paceneeds 3 of 9 |
| 134Purdue | 2.5 | o -135 BetMGMu +125 DraftKings | 2 +0.5 | 1-2 | 4 | On pace for overneeds 2 of 9 |
| 135Rutgers | 2.5 | o -150 BetMGMu +125 BetMGM | 5 -2.5 | 0-3 | 0 | Under paceneeds 3 of 9 |
| 136UMass | 2.5 | o -182 BetRiversu +145 BetRivers | – | – | ||
| 137Utah State | 2.5 | o -115 FanDuelu -105 FanDuel | 6 -3.5 | 0-3 | 0 | Under paceneeds 3 of 9 |
Pace is the team’s current rate stretched over 12 games; green means on track for the over. Over and under show the best price on the closing number. College records count regular-season games only, no conference title games, bowls or playoffs.
College football compresses a season into 12 games, and several of those games are scheduled to be lopsided. A buy game against a lower-division opponent can hand a favorite a near-guaranteed win before the schedule turns hard, and a late rivalry game can swing a total on emotion as much as on talent. Treating every game on a slate as equal misses the shape of the schedule that actually decides the number.
This matters most for teams in the middle of the board. Texas Tech and Utah State draw scrutiny from every book that posts a number, so their 11.5 and 2.5 prices stay tight. A team with a manageable schedule and a buy game or two mixed in, sitting away from the top of the board, is where a sharp read on schedule strength turns up a number the market has not fully priced.
The total is only half the bet. The price on the over and the price on the under can differ enough between books to matter, and on a wins total that gap is worth more than it looks. A half-wins shift between DraftKings, FanDuel, BetRivers, BetMGM, Caesars can turn a total from a coin flip into a lean, and paying a worse price for the same number gives up value before the season starts.
Shopping the number means checking whether the total itself moves between books along with the price attached to it. One book may hang a team at one number while another sets it a half-wins higher or lower, and that half-wins matters across 12 games. The best return comes from finding the highest number on the side expected to clear it and the lowest number on the side expected to miss.
Every total on the board carries a comparison to last season, and the size of that gap is the real signal. Liberty is asked to add +4.5 wins onto a 4-win season and reach 8.5, a jump that only holds if the roster, schedule, and coaching staff all point the same direction. North Texas is priced to fall from 11 wins down to 5.5, a number the market is betting will hold once turnover and a tougher schedule get factored in.
A gap that size deserves the closest look on the board, since it carries the highest risk of being priced on last year’s tape rather than this year’s roster. A team jumping several wins needs a real reason on paper: added talent, an easier schedule, or a coaching change that shows up in results. A team projected to fall needs the opposite check, since a number can sometimes drop lower than a roster actually deserves.