College Football Win Totals: Over Under Odds

Las Vegas Sportsbooks have recently rolled out their latest over/under season win totals for the upcoming college football season.  For the complete list of posted win totals, please check the table at the bottom of the page.

CFB Total Wins: Best Bets & Predictions

Below are what I believe are the top over/under win totals bets this season.  I base my predictions on a number of factors, including recruiting, coaching, and scheduling.

Oklahoma Under 10 Wins

The retirement of Bob Stoops does play a role here, but not as much as you might think.  These are still mostly Stoops players and I do not anticipate a huge change in philosophy in his first year out.  What I do think is that Stoops saw the writing on the wall.  Oklahoma as a program has grown stagnant.  Yes, they’ve had back-to-back 11-win seasons, but they have not really been a serious contender in a long time.  Don’t get me wrong, this is still one of the top teams in the Big 12 and “stagnant” at Oklahoma would be amazing at most other schools.

Recruiting for the Sooners is surprisingly up a tick this year (7th in the nation) after ranking 13th, 14th, and 19th in their most recent seasons, but it has fallen considerably from the early 2000s when they were consistently ranked in the top five recruiting classes.

Looking at the schedule there are at least five games Oklahoma could lose.  We only need them to drop two of them for a push and three for a win on this wager.  Those games are:  at Ohio State, at Baylor, vs Texas, at Kansas State, at and Oklahoma State.  Granted, Baylor is in a bit of disarray, as is Texas, but I don’t think you can fully count those games as wins for the Sooners, who have dropped early season games on the road in recent years.  It’s likely Oklahoma wins exactly 10 games this year, which would be fine as a push, but I have a feeling they drop at least one game you do not expect them to this season.

Clemson Under 9.5 Wins

I am expecting a bit of a hangover for the Clemson Tigers this year after their improbably comeback victory over Alabama in the Playoff Championship last season.  The heart and soul of the team, Deshaun Watson, is out and leaves some very big shoes to fill.  His tenacity made up for a lot of gaps in Clemson’s game last year and those will become evident early on.

The Tigers have a tough start to the season, play Auburn at home in their second week and then playing at Louisville their next time out.  Those two games will be a great test to see where this team actually is, but I’m not sure they are up for the task so early in the season.  Other tough contests this season include games at Virginia Tech, versus Georgia Tech, at NC State, and at home against Florida State.  These are all games Clemson could legitimately lose.

There are schools like Alabama that can avoid a hangover from a Championship season.  They consistently have top recruits coming in and simply plug in the next best guy at every position.  A program like Clemson, on the other hand, didn’t crack the top 25 in recruiting this season and has been sitting around 20th in the nation in recent years.  They were incredibly fortunate a player like Watson came along.  Without him I do not think this team gets to 10 wins.

Michigan Over 8.5 Wins

Like it or not, Jim Harbaugh has Michigan football heading in the right direction.  They’ve seen a huge uptick in recruiting – ranked 3rd in the nation this season – since he took over, and you can sense that they will continue to improve.

The Wolverine’s schedule, however, is what really pushed me toward this recommendation.  Michigan only really has three, maybe four, games I think they are at risk to lose (Florida, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Ohio State).  The thing is, they’d have to lose all four for this to be a losing proposition.  They could easily walk away with two wins out of those four games and, as long as they don’t stumble against a team they should beat, we will have a winning ticket at Over 8.5 wins.

2017 College Football Season Over/Under Wins Futures Odds

Each team is listed with their projected wins.  The Over and Under columns represent the line on each bet at the time of publication.  This number will vary depending on which book you choose for your odds.  What these lines do tell you is the general consensus of where the public is leaning.  The lower the line, either the more likely the book feels that outcome is, or they have already received enough bets to adjust the line in that direction.

For example, Ohio State is projected to win 10.5 games.  The Over is clearly favored here at -120, while the Under is even money at +100.  This means you would need to wager $120 on Ohio State Over 10.5 wins, but just $100 to win $100 on Ohio State Under 10.5 wins.  In this example, it seems Ohio State is more likely to win more than 10 games than less.

Team Projected Wins Over Under
Ohio State 10.5 -120 +100
Wisconsin 10.5 -110 -110
Alabama 10.5 -120 +100
Penn State 10 -110 -110
Oklahoma 10 +105 -125
USC 10 -110 -110
Washington 10 -130 +110
BYU 10 +105 -125
South Florida 10 -110 -110
Clemson 9.5 -110 -110
Florida State 9.5 -110 -110
Louisville 9.5 +100 -120
Western Kentucky 9.5 +100 -120
San Diego State 9.5 -125 +105
Appalachian State 9.5 -130 +110
Miami 9 -120 +100
Oklahoma State 9 +105 -125
Stanford 9 -115 -105
Auburn 9 +100 -120
Georgia 9 +110 -130
LSU 9 +100 -120
Louisiana Tech 9 -110 -110
Western Michigan 9 +110 -130
Virginia Tech 8.5 -115 -105
Michigan 8.5 -120 +100
Northwestern 8.5 -110 -110
Houston 8.5 -110 -110
Memphis 8.5 +100 -120
Toledo 8.5 +100 -120
Troy 8.5 -125 +105
Baylor 8 +100 -120
TCU 8 -120 +100
Florida 8 +100 -120
Army 8 -110 -110
Miami (Ohio 8 +105 -125
Boise State 8 -110 -110
Wyoming 8 -105 -115
Minnesota 7.5 -110 -110
Kansas State 7.5 -130 +110
Texas 7.5 -110 -110
Colorado 7.5 -120 +100
Oregon 7.5 -125 +105
Tennessee 7.5 -120 +100
Texas A&M 7.5 -110 -110
Notre Dame 7.5 +100 -120
UCF 7.5 -110 -110
Tulsa 7.5 -110 -110
Middle Tennessee 7.5 +100 -120
Southern Miss 7.5 +100 -120
Ohio 7.5 -110 -110
Colorado State 7.5 +100 -120
Arkansas State 7.5 +100 -120
North Carolina 7 -110 -110
Iowa 7 -120 +100
Nebraska 7 +100 -120
UCLA 7 -125 +105
Washington State 7 -130 +110
Kentucky 7 +100 -120
Navy 7 +105 -125
Temple 7 -110 -110
Central Michigan 7 +105 -125
NC State 6.5 -120 +100
Pittsburgh 6.5 -120 +100
Indiana 6.5 -120 +100
Old Dominion 6.5 -115 -105
UT-San Antonio 6.5 -120 +100
Northern Illinois 6 +110 -130
Georgia Tech 6 -110 -110
West Virginia 6 -130 +110
Arkansas 6 -110 -110
Missouri 6 -110 -110
Vanderbilt 6 -130 +110
Georgia State 6 +100 -120
Virginia 5.5 -110 -110
Wake Forest 5.5 +100 -120
Iowa State 5.5 +110 -130
Oregon State 5.5 +110 -130
Utah 5.5 -110 -110
Ole Miss 5.5 -110 -110
Akron 5.5 -110 -110
New Mexico 5.5 -110 -110
UNLV 5.5 +110 -130
Coastal Carolina 5.5 -120 +100
Michigan State 5 -110 -110
Arizona State 5 +105 -125
Mississippi State 5 +100 -120
South Carolina 5 -110 -110
Cincinnati 5 -120 +100
SMU 5 +105 -125
Marshall 5 +100 -120
Air Force 5 +110 -130
Georgia Southern 5 +110 -130
UL-Lafayette 5 -120 +100
Duke 4.5 +100 -120
Texas Tech 4.5 -130 +110
Arizona 4.5 +100 -120
Tulane 4.5 +100 -120
Florida International 4.5 +100 -120
Eastern Michigan 4.5 -120 +100
Utah State 4.5 +105 -125
Idaho 4.5 -110 -110
Boston College 4 -120 +100
Syracuse 4 -110 -110
Connecticut 4 +110 -130
Charlotte 4 +100 -120
Florida Atlantic 4 -105 -115
North Texas 4 -120 +100
Ball State 4 -115 -105
Bowling Green 4 +100 -120
Fresno State 4 +100 -120
Hawaii 4 +105 -125
South Alabama 4 +110 -130
Illinois 3.5 +100 -120
California 3.5 -110 -110
Rice 3.5 -120 +100
Buffalo 3.5 -110 -110
Kent State 3.5 -120 +100
Nevada 3.5 -120 +100
San Jose State 3.5 +100 -120
New Mexico State 3.5 -110 -110
UL-Monroe 3.5 +100 -120
Maryland 3 -120 +100
Rutgers 3 -110 -110
Purdue 2.5 -125 +105
Kansas 2.5 +110 -130
UMass 2.5 -120 +100
East Carolina 2.5 -120 +100
UAB 2.5 +100 -120
UTEP 2.5 +120 -140
Texas State 2.5 -120 +100

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