Favorites to Win the 2019 MLB World Series

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The top team in baseball takes home the World Series Trophy each year.  The table below tracks futures odds on every MLB team to win the upcoming World Series.

As of the latest update, the LA Dodgers are the favorites to win it all. They have the best record in the NL and their lineup is proving to be one of the top performing rosters in all of baseball. Their most likely opponent appears to be the Astros out of the AL.

Of the top contenders, the Red Sox and Nationals have seen their odds worsen more than any other teams. They each opened the year as the favorites to win their respective leagues, but a slow start has seen their odds decrease dramatically. A team to keep an eye on would be the Tampa Bay Rays, who have improved their odds more than any other team near the top of this list. It’s also interesting to note that the team with the best record in the majors, the Minnesota Twins, is only given the 9th-best chance out of 30 teams to win the World Series.

Next we’ll look at the projected playoffs, division winners, and World Series matchup as suggested by the latest odds.

MLB Playoffs: Projected Division Winners & Championship Predictions

AL – Division Winners

AL East: Yankees
AL Central: Twins
AL West: Astros

NL – Division Winners

NL East – Phillies
NL Central – Cubs
NL West – Dodgers

Conference Championship Series

ALCS:  Astros vs Yankees
NLCS: Dodgers vs Phillies

World Series Projected Matchup & Winner

World Series:  Dodgers vs Astros

World Series Champions: Los Angeles Dodgers

The change column represents how much the odds have improved or decreased since the last update. The Team WAR column shows how each team’s players are performing above the average MLB team. A team’s WAR has been shown to be strongly correlated with their season success.  The final column shows the normalized probability for each team to win the World Series based on the current market odds.

Vegas World Series Odds to Win the 2019 MLB Championship

Team 2019 Record Division Team WAR Odds Change World Series
Dodgers 25-14 NL West 10.3 +480 +520 13.52%
Astros 22-15 AL West 9.5 +490 +210 13.30%
Yankees 21-15 AL East 5.5 +625 +275 10.82%
Rays 23-13 AL West 7.0 +1100 +3400 6.54%
Red Sox 19-19 AL East 3.8 +1200 -700 6.03%
Phillies 21-15 NL East 5.9 +1300 +800 5.60%
Cubs 21-13 NL Central 7.4 +1350 -350 5.41%
Cardinals 21-16 NL Central 7.1 +1400 +100 5.23%
Twins 23-12 AL Central 7.4 +1500 +5700 4.90%
Indians 19-16 AL Central -0.3 +1500 -100 4.90%
Mets 17-20 NL East 4.4 +2350 -50 3.20%
Brewers 23-16 NL Central 6.4 +2400 -400 3.14%
Mariners 20-19 AL West 6.1 +2450 +5050 3.08%
Braves 18-19 NL East 6.3 +2500 -500 3.02%
D-Backs 21-16 NL West 6.4 +3500 +6000 2.18%
Nationals 14-22 NL East 3.5 +4000 -3050 1.91%
Padres 21-17 NL West 3.5 +4200 +9800 1.82%
Rockies 16-20 NL West 1.2 +6000 -3200 1.29%
Pirates 17-16 NL Central 1.1 +10000 -2000 0.78%
A’s 17-21 AL West 4.4 +13000 -9000 0.60%
White Sox 16-19 AL Central 3.5 +15000 -10300 0.52%
Angels 16-20 AL West 4.2 +19000 -13500 0.41%
Rangers 17-17 AL West 5.3 +21000 -4000 0.37%
Blue Jays 15-22 AL East 0.2 +22000 -13000 0.35%
Reds 15-22 NL Central 0.9 +23000 -14500 0.34%
Tigers 16-17 AL Central 0.8 +30000 -5000 0.26%
Giants 16-20 NL West 1.7 +33000 -19000 0.24%
Royals 13-25 AL Central 5.0 +100000 -72000 0.08%
Marlins 10-26 NL East -1.6 +100000 -71000 0.08%
Orioles 13-24 AL East 1.4 +100000 -55000 0.08%

World Series Futures: Best Bets

In terms of best bets on futures, we are looking at value above all else.  Sometimes favorites are simply too popular to take a flier on, while betting on a longer shot to get hot at the right time and win the World Series is well worth the risk.  As of the latest update, here are a few teams worth looking at.

Boston Red Sox +1200 & Houston Astros +490

I’m willing to bet that one of these teams ends up taking home the World Series this year. Right now you can get a great price on the Red Sox because of their slow start. I also believe this may be the best price you will see on them all year, so now might be the best time to take a position on them.

The price on the Astros isn’t as good as it was at the start of the season, but there is still value here. The implied probability at +490 is 13.3%. I project Houston with at least a 25% chance to win the World Series this year.

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