The top team in baseball takes home the World Series Trophy each year. The table below tracks futures odds on every MLB team to win the upcoming World Series.
As of the latest update, the Houston Astros are the favorites to win it all. They have the best record in baseball, along with the top team WAR by a significant margin. The Dodgers are the favorites to win the NL pennant by a pretty significant margin over the Atlanta Braves. Los Angeles was the favorite to win the series for much of the season, but the Astros are currently playing like the best team in baseball and the odds reflect that.
Next we’ll look at the projected playoffs, division winners, and World Series matchup as suggested by the latest odds.
AL East: Yankees
AL Central: Twins
AL West: Astros
NL East – Braves
NL Central – Cardinals
NL West – Dodgers
ALCS: Astros vs Yankees
NLCS: Dodgers vs Braves
World Series: Astros vs Dodgers
World Series Champions: Houston Astros
The change column represents how much the odds have improved or decreased since the last update. The Team WAR column shows how each team’s players are performing above the average MLB team. A team’s WAR has been shown to be strongly correlated with their season success. The final column shows the normalized probability for each team to win the World Series based on the current market odds.
| Team | 2019 Record | Division | Team WAR | Odds | Change | World Series |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Astros | 95-52 | AL West | 36.5 | +275 | +225 | 20.83% |
| Dodgers | 94-53 | NL West | 32.6 | +300 | None | 19.53% |
| Yankees | 95-51 | AL East | 30.1 | +350 | None | 17.36% |
| Braves | 91-56 | NL East | 24.8 | +700 | +300 | 9.76% |
| Cardinals | 81-64 | NL Central | 17.9 | +1400 | +1100 | 5.21% |
| Twins | 89-56 | AL Central | 29.1 | +1600 | -200 | 4.60% |
| Nationals | 80-64 | NL East | 21.6 | +1600 | +900 | 4.60% |
| Indians | 86-61 | AL Central | 18.4 | +2500 | -900 | 3.00% |
| A’s | 86-60 | AL West | 25.3 | +2500 | None | 3.00% |
| Rays | 87-60 | AL West | 21.5 | +2500 | +800 | 3.00% |
| Cubs | 77-68 | NL Central | 21.3 | +3300 | -2100 | 2.30% |
| Mets | 75-70 | NL East | 20.4 | +3300 | +11700 | 2.30% |
| Brewers | 77-68 | NL Central | 21.4 | +5000 | -2500 | 1.53% |
| Phillies | 75-70 | NL East | 19.5 | +5000 | -2500 | 1.53% |
| D-Backs | 75-71 | NL West | 22.8 | +12500 | -7500 | 0.62% |
| Red Sox | 76-70 | AL East | 25.7 | +25000 | -22500 | 0.31% |
| Giants | 70-76 | NL West | 10.1 | +25000 | -20000 | 0.31% |
| Padres | 68-77 | NL West | 13.8 | +100000 | -85000 | 0.08% |
| Rangers | 73-74 | AL West | 8.8 | +100000 | -92000 | 0.08% |
| Reds | 67-79 | NL Central | 10.5 | +250000 | -240000 | 0.03% |
| Pirates | 64-82 | NL Central | 10.6 | +500000 | -485000 | 0.02% |
In terms of best bets on futures, we are looking at value above all else. Sometimes favorites are simply too popular to take a flier on, while betting on a longer shot to get hot at the right time and win the World Series is well worth the risk. As of the latest update, here are a few teams worth looking at.
We didn’t go too far out on a limb with our preseason best bets as both the Red Sox and Astros were offering great value early. Our Boston bet is all but dead, but our position on the Astros at +1175 looks great as they are currently the favorites at +275. That’s a gain in probability of over 18% and exactly the kind of payout that would make it worth waiting all season for.