Favorites to Win the 2018 MLB World Series

The top team in baseball takes home the World Series Trophy each year.  The table below tracks futures odds on every MLB team to win the upcoming World Series.

After about two weeks of action we’ve already seen some significant movement.  After a bit of a slow start, the Yankees have fallen behind the Astros as far as the odds-on favorite to win the championship.

Based on the most recent update, here are the most likely playoff scenario matchups:

ALCS:  Astros vs Yankees
NLCS: Dodgers vs Cubs

World Series:  Astros vs Dodgers

The change column represents how much the odds have improved or decreased since the last update.  Our Power Index estimates how many runs a team should be favored by on a neutral field against an average MLB team.  The final column shows the normalized probability for each team to win the World Series.

Vegas World Series Odds to Win the 2018 MLB Championship

Team Record Division Power Index Odds Change World Series
Astros 9-4 AL West 0.1 +515 +60 12.79%
Yankees 6-6 AL East 0.0 +670 -85 10.22%
Dodgers 4-7 NL West 0.0 +740 -100 9.37%
Cubs 6-5 NL Central 0.1 +825 None 8.51%
Red Sox 9-2 AL East 0.2 +875 None 8.07%
Indians 7-5 AL Central 0.0 +915 +10 7.75%
Nationals 6-6 NL East 0.0 +985 +165 7.25%
Mets 10-1 NL East 0.1 +1300 +800 5.62%
Angels 10-3 AL West 0.2 +1800 +950 4.14%
D-Backs 9-3 NL West 0.1 +2000 +800 3.75%
Blue Juays 8-5 AL East 0.1 +2200 +800 3.42%
Cardinals 5-7 NL Central 0.0 +2500 +500 3.03%
Twins 6-4 AL Central 0.1 +2500 +700 3.03%
Brewers 7-6 NL Central -0.1 +3300 -100 2.31%
Giants 5-6 NL West 0.0 +3300 +450 2.31%
Rockies 6-7 NL West -0.1 +3750 +150 2.04%
Mariners 6-4 AL West 0.0 +5000 None 1.54%
Pirates 8-3 NL Central 0.1 +10000 +2500 0.78%
Braves 7-5 NL East 0.2 +10000 +5000 0.78%
Phillies 6-5 NL East 0.1 +12500 +4000 0.62%
Orioles 5-8 AL East -0.1 +15000 +2500 0.52%
White Sox 4-7 AL Central -0.1 +20000 None 0.39%
A’s 5-8 AL West 0.0 +27500 -7500 0.29%
Rays 3-9 AL West -0.1 +27500 -7500 0.29%
Rangers 4-10 AL West -0.2 +27500 -7500 0.29%
Royals 3-7 AL Central -0.1 +30000 -10000 0.26%
Marlins 3-9 NL East -0.2 +50000 -25000 0.16%
Reds 2-9 NL Central -0.2 +50000 None 0.16%
Tigers 4-7 AL Central 0.0 +50000 +50000 0.16%
Padres 4-9 NL West -0.1 +50000 +50000 0.16%

World Series Futures: Best Bets

In terms of best bets on futures, we are looking at value above all else.  Sometimes favorites are simply too popular to take a flier on, while betting on a longer shot to get hot at the right time and win the World Series is well worth the risk.  As of the latest update, here are a few teams worth looking at.

Boston Red Sox +875 (9 to 1)

The Red Sox have some of the most exciting young talent in baseball with players like Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Andrew Benintendi, and Jackie Bradley Jr. to name a few.  They also have a dominant top of the rotation pitcher in Chris Sale and one of the most dominant closers in recent memory with Craig Kimbrel.  They may need some help at the end of the rotation, but the Red Sox should challenge the Yankees in the AL East.

San Francisco Giants +3300 (33 to 1)

Reports of the Giants demise has been largely exaggerated.  Like the Red Sox with the Yankees in the AL East, the Giants will need to navigate around the LA Dodgers in the NL West, however, they have done this in the past and I do still think they are up for the task.  Madison Bumgarner and Johnny Cueto are still a devastating 1-2 at the top of the rotation.

Offensively the Giants won’t have a ton of power, but they will continue to find ways to manufacture runs as long as they stay healthy.  Picking up Evan Longoria in the offseason could be a sneaky-good move for a little extra pop in the middle of the lineup.  It does seem like they could stand to add an outfielder or two, however, at 32 to 1 odds there is still a ton of value on a team that was basically eliminated last year due to key injuries.

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