The top team in baseball takes home the World Series Trophy each year. The table below tracks futures odds on every MLB team to win the upcoming World Series.
And then there were four! We are down to just two teams in the AL and two teams in the NL with a shot to win the World Series this year. The Astros, Red Sox, Dodgers, and Brewers are who we have left and the odds indicate this should be an extremely close race.
I will note that as of our last update, the only projection the odds were off on were the Cubs heading to the NLCS in place of the Dodgers, but otherwise the projections were on point.
As of today, the Astros are you favorite to win this year’s World Series. They’ve been jumping back and forth with the Red Sox since the All-Star break in terms of who the odds-on favorites were, but we find them yet again being the most likely team to take home the title.
ALCS: Red Sox vs Astros [set]
NLCS: Dodgers vs Brewers [set]
World Series: Astros vs Dodgers
World Series Champions: Houston Astros
The change column represents how much the odds have improved or decreased since the last update. Our Power Index estimates how many runs a team should be favored by on a neutral field against an average MLB team. The final column shows the normalized probability for each team to win the World Series.
| Team | Record | Division | Power Index | Odds | Change | World Series |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Astros | 103-59 | AL West | 1.7 | +193 | +207 | 32.44% |
| Red Sox | 108-54 | AL East | 1.5 | +253 | +197 | 26.93% |
| Dodgers | 92-71 | NL West | 1.3 | +290 | +210 | 24.38% |
| Brewers | 96-67 | NL Central | 0.7 | +485 | +165 | 16.25% |
In terms of best bets on futures, we are looking at value above all else. Sometimes favorites are simply too popular to take a flier on, while betting on a longer shot to get hot at the right time and win the World Series is well worth the risk. As of the latest update, here are a few teams worth looking at.
I locked this in at better than +900 (9 to 1) months ago, but there’s still value on Boston now. The Red Sox have some of the most exciting young talent in baseball with players like Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Andrew Benintendi, and Jackie Bradley Jr. to name a few. They also have a dominant top of the rotation pitcher in Chris Sale and one of the most dominant closers in recent memory with Craig Kimbrel. They may need some help at the end of the rotation, but the Red Sox should challenge the Astros in the ALCS and will almost certainly be favored heading into the World Series should they grab the AL Pennant.