Favorites to Win the 2019 MLB World Series

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The top team in baseball takes home the World Series Trophy each year.  The table below tracks futures odds on every MLB team to win the upcoming World Series.

As of the latest update, the Houston Astros are the favorites to win it all. They have the best record in the AL and their lineup is proving to be one of the top performing rosters in all of baseball. Their most likely opponent appears to be the Dodgers out of the NL.

Of the top contenders, the Phillies have seen the biggest hit to their odds, while their NL East Rivals, the Atlanta Braves have been the biggest surprise in the National League this season. At the season’s halfway point, the Dodgers and Yankees have solidified themselves as the odds-on favorites to match up in the World Series.

Next we’ll look at the projected playoffs, division winners, and World Series matchup as suggested by the latest odds.

MLB Playoffs: Projected Division Winners & Championship Predictions

AL – Division Winners

AL East: Yankees
AL Central: Twins
AL West: Astros

NL – Division Winners

NL East – Braves
NL Central – Cubs
NL West – Dodgers

Conference Championship Series

ALCS:  Astros vs Yankees
NLCS: Dodgers vs Braves

World Series Projected Matchup & Winner

World Series:  Dodgers vs Yankees

World Series Champions: Los Angeles Dodgers

The change column represents how much the odds have improved or decreased since the last update. The Team WAR column shows how each team’s players are performing above the average MLB team. A team’s WAR has been shown to be strongly correlated with their season success.  The final column shows the normalized probability for each team to win the World Series based on the current market odds.

Vegas World Series Odds to Win the 2019 MLB Championship

Team 2019 Record Division Team WAR Odds Change World Series
Dodgers 60-32 NL West 20.9 +300 +100 19.00%
Yankees 57-31 AL East 14.1 +350 +250 16.89%
Astros 57-33 AL West 19.1 +500 -100 12.67%
Braves 54-37 NL East 15.7 +900 +700 7.60%
Twins 56-33 AL Central 19.4 +900 -100 7.60%
Cubs 47-43 NL Central 15.0 +1600 -200 4.47%
Brewers 47-44 NL Central 13.4 +2200 -800 3.30%
Phillies 47-43 NL East 12.7 +2200 -1000 3.30%
Rays 52-39 AL West 13.7 +2200 -1000 3.30%
Nationals 47-42 NL East 9.7 +2200 +1100 3.30%
Red Sox 49-41 AL East 16.5 +2500 -500 2.92%
Indians 50-38 AL Central 8.4 +2500 +1500 2.92%
A’s 50-41 AL West 13.3 +4000 +1000 1.85%
Cardinals 44-44 NL Central 9.5 +4000 -700 1.85%
Rangers 48-42 AL West 9.2 +5000 None 1.49%
D-Backs 46-45 NL West 15.1 +6600 -1600 1.13%
Rockies 44-45 NL West 5.2 +6600 -2600 1.13%
Padres 45-45 NL West 10.4 +6600 -1600 1.13%
Reds 41-46 NL Central 4.1 +8000 +2000 0.94%
Angels 45-46 AL West 15.2 +10000 None 0.75%
Pirates 44-45 NL Central 9.8 +10000 None 0.75%
Mets 40-50 NL East 10.4 +15000 -11000 0.50%
Giants 41-48 NL West 4.3 +15000 +35000 0.50%
White Sox 42-44 AL Central 6.5 +25000 -15000 0.30%
Mariners 39-55 AL West 11.6 +50000 -25000 0.15%
Marlins 33-55 NL East 1.2 +100000 None 0.08%
Blue Jays 34-57 AL East 4.1 +100000 -50000 0.08%
Orioles 27-62 AL East 0.8 +500000 -400000 0.02%
Tigers 28-57 AL Central -1.0 +500000 -450000 0.02%
Royals 30-61 AL Central 6.9 +500000 -400000 0.02%

World Series Futures: Best Bets

In terms of best bets on futures, we are looking at value above all else.  Sometimes favorites are simply too popular to take a flier on, while betting on a longer shot to get hot at the right time and win the World Series is well worth the risk.  As of the latest update, here are a few teams worth looking at.

Boston Red Sox +2500 & Houston Astros +500

I’m willing to bet that one of these teams ends up taking home the World Series this year. Right now you can get a great price on the Red Sox because of their slow start. I also believe this may be the best price you will see on them all year, so now might be the best time to take a position on them. They have an uphill battle to be sure, but there’s not a lot of value on any of the favorites outside of Houston. With the raw talent on Boston’s roster, they do have the ability to turn this season around.

The price on the Astros isn’t as good as it was at the start of the season, but there is still value here. The implied fair-market probability at +500 is 12.67%. I project Houston with at least a 25% chance to win the World Series this year.

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