Favorites to Win the 2019 MLB World Series

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The top team in baseball takes home the World Series Trophy each year.  The table below tracks futures odds on every MLB team to win the upcoming World Series.

As of the latest update, the Houston Astros are the favorites to win it all. They have the best record in baseball, along with the top team WAR by a significant margin. The Dodgers are the favorites to win the NL pennant by a pretty significant margin over the Atlanta Braves. Los Angeles was the favorite to win the series for much of the season, but the Astros are currently playing like the best team in baseball and the odds reflect that.

Next we’ll look at the projected playoffs, division winners, and World Series matchup as suggested by the latest odds.

MLB Playoffs: Projected Division Winners & Championship Predictions

AL – Division Winners

AL East: Yankees
AL Central: Twins
AL West: Astros

NL – Division Winners

NL East – Braves
NL Central – Cardinals
NL West – Dodgers

Conference Championship Series

ALCS:  Astros vs Yankees
NLCS: Dodgers vs Braves

World Series Projected Matchup & Winner

World Series:  Astros vs Dodgers

World Series Champions: Houston Astros

The change column represents how much the odds have improved or decreased since the last update. The Team WAR column shows how each team’s players are performing above the average MLB team. A team’s WAR has been shown to be strongly correlated with their season success.  The final column shows the normalized probability for each team to win the World Series based on the current market odds.

Vegas World Series Odds to Win the 2019 MLB Championship

Team 2019 Record Division Team WAR Odds Change World Series
Astros 95-52 AL West 36.5 +275 +225 20.83%
Dodgers 94-53 NL West 32.6 +300 None 19.53%
Yankees 95-51 AL East 30.1 +350 None 17.36%
Braves 91-56 NL East 24.8 +700 +300 9.76%
Cardinals 81-64 NL Central 17.9 +1400 +1100 5.21%
Twins 89-56 AL Central 29.1 +1600 -200 4.60%
Nationals 80-64 NL East 21.6 +1600 +900 4.60%
Indians 86-61 AL Central 18.4 +2500 -900 3.00%
A’s 86-60 AL West 25.3 +2500 None 3.00%
Rays 87-60 AL West 21.5 +2500 +800 3.00%
Cubs 77-68 NL Central 21.3 +3300 -2100 2.30%
Mets 75-70 NL East 20.4 +3300 +11700 2.30%
Brewers 77-68 NL Central 21.4 +5000 -2500 1.53%
Phillies 75-70 NL East 19.5 +5000 -2500 1.53%
D-Backs 75-71 NL West 22.8 +12500 -7500 0.62%
Red Sox 76-70 AL East 25.7 +25000 -22500 0.31%
Giants 70-76 NL West 10.1 +25000 -20000 0.31%
Padres 68-77 NL West 13.8 +100000 -85000 0.08%
Rangers 73-74 AL West 8.8 +100000 -92000 0.08%
Reds 67-79 NL Central 10.5 +250000 -240000 0.03%
Pirates 64-82 NL Central 10.6 +500000 -485000 0.02%

World Series Futures: Best Bets

In terms of best bets on futures, we are looking at value above all else.  Sometimes favorites are simply too popular to take a flier on, while betting on a longer shot to get hot at the right time and win the World Series is well worth the risk.  As of the latest update, here are a few teams worth looking at.

Preseason Bets: Boston Red Sox +1150 & Houston Astros +1175

We didn’t go too far out on a limb with our preseason best bets as both the Red Sox and Astros were offering great value early.  Our Boston bet is all but dead, but our position on the Astros at +1175 looks great as they are currently the favorites at +275.  That’s a gain in probability of over 18% and exactly the kind of payout that would make it worth waiting all season for.

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