Favorites to Win the 2018 MLB World Series

The top team in baseball takes home the World Series Trophy each year.  The table below tracks futures odds on every MLB team to win the upcoming World Series.

As the regular season starts to wind down, the playoff picture is becoming more concrete.  The Red Sox have rocketed up the standings recently, and their odds reflect that.  They are now the odds-on favorite to win it all.  The Astros have been at or near the top of the odds all season long and are the most likely team to contend with Boston to represent the AL in the World Series.  On the NL side, there’s around a 20% chance that either the Cubs or Dodgers will end up playing in the championship game and defeating their opponent.

MLB Playoffs: Projected Championship Games

ALCS:  Red Sox vs Astros
NLCS: Dodgers vs Cubs

World Series:  Red Sox vs Dodgers

World Series Champions: Boston Red Sox

The change column represents how much the odds have improved or decreased since the last update.  Our Power Index estimates how many runs a team should be favored by on a neutral field against an average MLB team.  The final column shows the normalized probability for each team to win the World Series.

Vegas World Series Odds to Win the 2018 MLB Championship

Team Record Division Power Index Odds Change World Series
Red Sox 95-44 AL East 1.3 +325 +75 19.13%
Astros 85-53 AL West 1.4 +450 None 14.79%
Cubs 81-56 NL Central 0.8 +700 -200 10.16%
Yankees 86-52 AL East 0.9 +845 -195 8.61%
Dodgers 75-63 NL West 0.8 +895 +5 8.17%
Indians 77-60 AL Central 0.8 +950 +50 7.74%
A’s 83-56 AL West 0.5 +1410 +190 5.39%
Braves 76-61 NL East 0.6 +1675 -75 4.58%
D-Backs 74-64 NL West 0.5 +1800 None 4.28%
Brewers 78-61 NL Central 0.2 +1850 -50 4.17%
Cardinals 76-62 NL Central 0.4 +1925 +275 4.02%
Rockies 75-62 NL West -0.1 +1975 +225 3.92%
Phillies 72-65 NL East -0.1 +4000 -1400 1.98%
Mariners 77-61 AL West -0.3 +7450 -3450 1.08%
Rays 74-63 AL West 0.3 +9500 -4500 0.85%
Nationals 69-69 NL East 0.4 +12000 -3000 0.67%
Giants 68-71 NL West -0.3 +17500 -8500 0.46%

World Series Futures: Best Bets

In terms of best bets on futures, we are looking at value above all else.  Sometimes favorites are simply too popular to take a flier on, while betting on a longer shot to get hot at the right time and win the World Series is well worth the risk.  As of the latest update, here are a few teams worth looking at.

Boston Red Sox +325 (3.25 to 1)

I locked this in at better than +900 (9 to 1), but there’s still value on Boston now.  The Red Sox have some of the most exciting young talent in baseball with players like Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Andrew Benintendi, and Jackie Bradley Jr. to name a few.  They also have a dominant top of the rotation pitcher in Chris Sale (assuming he’s back soon) and one of the most dominant closers in recent memory with Craig Kimbrel.  They may need some help at the end of the rotation, but the Red Sox should challenge the Yankees in the AL East.

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