The 118th U.S. Open is set to get underway this week at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Long Island, NY. This is considered by many one of the Top 5 courses in the world. Past champions include Raymond Floyd (1986), Corey Pavin (1995) and Retief Goosen (2004).
Golf purists rejoice as this will be a much more difficult test for the players after they took apart Erin Hills last year. Thanks to the addition of 10 new tees, the USGA has added 444 yards to the 2004 setup, which was still one of the toughest in U.S. Open history. It now stretches to 7,440 yards in length.
The course played to roughly a 73 average on the stock par 70 in each of the first three rounds in 2004, but that ballooned to 78.73 in the final round. It remains the highest mark for a finale in a tournament since data was first maintained in 1983.But the USGA won’t allow that again, so there will be wider fairways, and the greens won’t be as baked out, especially if they get the rain anticipated for Wednesday. After that, it will be perfect conditions for all four days of the tournament.
Now it’s time to give you my top four contenders as well as a long shot pick to win the 2018 U.S. Open. I factor in the odds with my picks to look for value. I’m not just going to pick the four favorites, because there is no value in that. But if you place a win bet on all five of the guys I list and one hits, you will be taking home a big payday come Sunday.
Jordan Spieth (+1775) – Spieth just seems to show up in the majors. He has the best score to par in all majors since the start of 2015, and ranks 1st in many other categories when it pertains to majors. He worked on his long game this season and is hitting the driver better than he ever has. That work has led to a rare lapse in putting, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him find the stroke this week and put it all together. He won the US Open in 2015 and is second in strokes gained tee-to-green this season.
Rickie Fowler (+1685) – Has two Top 5s in his last four U.S. Open appearances. Fowler is still the best to not win a major on the PGA Tour, but some of that pressure has been lifted for this week. He just got engaged last week, and that sense of security could put his mind at ease. He also has a love for Shinnecock Hills and joined Tom Brady, Jimmy Dunne and Phil Mickelson for a practice round on a different course Tuesday, so he is feeling comfortable to say the least.
Phil Mickelson (+2800) – Mickelson is one of only five players who have played at U.S. Opens at Shinnecock in both 1995 and 2004. He place T4 in 1995 and solo 2nd in 2004. He loves the place, and he desperately wants to win the career Grand Slam in front of the fans in New York, who have treated him with nothing but love in previous U.S. Opens. He also turns 48 on Saturday, so the great vibes are there. This could be his last chance to win a U.S. Open, and the form he’s shown thus far this season gives me no reason to believe he won’t.
Louis Oosthuizen (+6500) – Always seems to pop up near the top of the leaderboard at majors. Oosthuizen has Top 15s in five of his last seven starts. He is one of the best ball-strikers in the game and actually leads the TOUR in scrambling of all things this season. That will bode well for him at a place where scrambling will be of utmost importance. He finished T2 in the U.S. Open at Chambers Bay in 2015.
Brandt Snedeker (+11500) – Comes in with great form after a T6 in Memphis last week, helped by a second-round 62. Has five Top 10s among eight Top 25s in 11 U.S. Open appearances. In fact, he is one of just four golfers with Top 10s in three of the last five U.S. Opens (Fowler, Day, Johnson). That track record in the toughest test in golf gives me no other choice but to take a shot on Snedeker at a huge price here.
Below you’ll find the complete odds for winning this year’s US Open from 5Dimes. We’ve included each golfer’s world rank, country, average points on tour this season, their current odds, how much those odds have changed since our last update, and our US Open probability to win, which is the percentage chance of winning given the current market odds on each player.
5Dimes and other major books use money lines for futures odds like this as they are more nuanced and easier to understand than fractional odds, which make sense for something like 7/1, but breaks down once you start having to post odds at 9/5 or 15/17. The easiest way to think about these odds is that the + amount is the amount you would win with a $100 bet. For example, if you bet $100 on Dustin Johnston to win at +775, you’d win $775.
Player | World Rank | Country | Avg Points | Odds | Change | US Open |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dustin Johnson | 1 | USA | 9.2820 | +775 | New | 8.65% |
Justin Rose | 3 | ENG | 8.2782 | +1300 | New | 5.41% |
Rory McIlroy | 6 | NIR | 7.0658 | +1400 | New | 5.05% |
Justin Thomas | 2 | USA | 8.9947 | +1450 | New | 4.88% |
Jason Day | 8 | AUS | 6.5743 | +1500 | New | 4.73% |
Rickie Fowler | 7 | USA | 6.8714 | +1685 | New | 4.24% |
Jon Rahm | 5 | ESP | 7.6781 | +1700 | New | 4.20% |
Jordan Spieth | 4 | USA | 7.7787 | +1775 | New | 4.04% |
Brooks Koepka | 9 | USA | 5.8157 | +2400 | New | 3.03% |
Phil Mickelson | 20 | USA | 4.4546 | +2800 | New | 2.61% |
Hideki Matsuyama | 10 | JPN | 5.5709 | +2800 | New | 2.61% |
Henrik Stenson | 17 | SWE | 4.7614 | +2900 | New | 2.52% |
Tiger Woods | 80 | USA | 1.7970 | +3000 | New | 2.44% |
Branden Grace | 34 | RSA | 3.2575 | +3600 | New | 2.05% |
Bryson DeChambeau | 22 | USA | 4.0677 | +4000 | New | 1.85% |
Tommy Fleetwood | 12 | ENG | 5.1778 | +4500 | New | 1.65% |
Paul Casey | 11 | ENG | 5.2366 | +5000 | New | 1.48% |
Patrick Reed | 13 | USA | 5.1356 | +5000 | New | 1.48% |
Marc Leishman | 14 | AUS | 4.8459 | +5000 | New | 1.48% |
Sergio Garcia | 15 | ESP | 4.8026 | +6000 | New | 1.24% |
Patrick Cantlay | 29 | USA | 3.4811 | +6000 | New | 1.24% |
Louis Oosthuizen | 33 | RSA | 3.2750 | +6500 | New | 1.15% |
Alex Noren | 16 | SWE | 4.7917 | +6600 | New | 1.13% |
Tony Finau | 37 | USA | 3.0861 | +6600 | New | 1.13% |
Webb Simpson | 21 | USA | 4.1777 | +6600 | New | 1.13% |
Adam Scott | 67 | AUS | 2.0256 | +7000 | New | 1.07% |
Bubba Watson | 19 | USA | 4.5165 | +7500 | New | 1.00% |
Matt Kuchar | 25 | USA | 3.8553 | +8000 | New | 0.93% |
Jimmy Walker | 55 | USA | 2.3262 | +9000 | New | 0.83% |
Emiliano Grillo | 52 | ARG | 2.3734 | +10000 | New | 0.75% |
Brandt Snedeker | 89 | USA | 1.5881 | +11500 | New | 0.65% |
Xander Schauffele | 26 | USA | 3.7178 | +12500 | New | 0.60% |
Rafael Cabrera Bello | 24 | ESP | 3.8669 | +12500 | New | 0.60% |
Byeong Hun An | 57 | KOR | 2.2821 | +12500 | New | 0.60% |
Luke List | 54 | USA | 2.3596 | +12500 | New | 0.60% |
Peter Uihlein | 49 | USA | 2.3839 | +14000 | New | 0.54% |
Zach Johnson | 60 | USA | 2.1752 | +15000 | New | 0.50% |
Shane Lowry | 85 | IRL | 1.6831 | +15000 | New | 0.50% |
Tyrrell Hatton | 23 | ENG | 3.8706 | +15000 | New | 0.50% |
Kyle Stanley | 38 | USA | 3.0450 | +15000 | New | 0.50% |
Keegan Bradley | 69 | USA | 1.9606 | +15000 | New | 0.50% |
Ian Poulter | 27 | ENG | 3.6637 | +17500 | New | 0.43% |
Charl Schwartzel | 44 | RSA | 2.5726 | +17500 | New | 0.43% |
Martin Kaymer | 118 | GER | 1.2935 | +17500 | New | 0.43% |
Gary Woodland | 40 | USA | 2.7050 | +18500 | New | 0.41% |
Jason Dufner | 53 | USA | 2.3711 | +20000 | New | 0.38% |
Daniel Berger | 43 | USA | 2.6254 | +20000 | New | 0.38% |
Matthew Fitzpatrick | 39 | ENG | 2.7999 | +20000 | New | 0.38% |
Kiradech Aphibarnrat | 31 | THA | 3.4069 | +20000 | New | 0.38% |
Siwoo Kim | 46 | KOR | 2.5158 | +20000 | New | 0.38% |
Steve Stricker | 134 | USA | 1.1536 | +20000 | New | 0.38% |
Russell Henley | 58 | USA | 2.2536 | +20000 | New | 0.38% |
Aaron Wise | 71 | USA | 1.9486 | +20000 | New | 0.38% |
Brian Harman | 28 | USA | 3.5480 | +20000 | New | 0.38% |
Brendan Steele | 48 | USA | 2.3971 | +22500 | New | 0.33% |
Adam Hadwin | 47 | CAN | 2.5018 | +25000 | New | 0.30% |
Patrick Rodgers | 128 | USA | 1.2137 | +25000 | New | 0.30% |
Trey Mullinax | 164 | USA | 0.9921 | +25000 | New | 0.30% |
Chez Reavie | 50 | USA | 2.3796 | +25000 | New | 0.30% |
Graeme McDowell | 172 | NIR | 0.9600 | +27500 | New | 0.27% |
Thorbjorn Olesen | 73 | DEN | 1.9248 | +27500 | New | 0.27% |
Ollie Schniederjans | 98 | USA | 1.4534 | +30000 | New | 0.25% |
Pat Perez | 32 | USA | 3.3468 | +30000 | New | 0.25% |
Ross Fisher | 41 | ENG | 2.6663 | +30000 | New | 0.25% |
Kevin Kisner | 30 | USA | 3.4492 | +30000 | New | 0.25% |
Charles Howell III | 59 | USA | 2.2142 | +35000 | New | 0.22% |
Cameron Smith | 42 | AUS | 2.6279 | +35000 | New | 0.22% |
Alexander Levy | 51 | FRA | 2.3744 | +37500 | New | 0.20% |
Bill Haas | 88 | USA | 1.5972 | +40000 | New | 0.19% |
Braden Thornberry | 797 | USA | 0.1601 | +40000 | New | 0.19% |
Danny Willett | 413 | ENG | 0.4335 | +40000 | New | 0.19% |
Dylan Frittelli | 61 | RSA | 2.1701 | +40000 | New | 0.19% |
Haotong Li | 45 | CHN | 2.5357 | +40000 | New | 0.19% |
Kevin Chappell | 56 | USA | 2.3245 | +40000 | New | 0.19% |
Lucas Glover | 107 | USA | 1.3626 | +40000 | New | 0.19% |
Ryan Fox | 124 | NZL | 1.2382 | +40000 | New | 0.19% |
Sam Burns | 171 | USA | 0.9650 | +40000 | New | 0.19% |
Shubhankar Sharma | 76 | IND | 1.8339 | +40000 | New | 0.19% |
Satoshi Kodaira | 35 | JPN | 3.2134 | +45000 | New | 0.17% |
Scott Stallings | 155 | USA | 1.0502 | +50000 | New | 0.15% |
Juan Sebastian Munoz | 277 | COL | 0.6508 | +50000 | New | 0.15% |
Roberto Castro | 262 | USA | 0.6858 | +50000 | New | 0.15% |
Matt Wallace | 90 | ENG | 1.5860 | +50000 | New | 0.15% |
Paul Waring | 247 | ENG | 0.7095 | +50000 | New | 0.15% |
Richy Werenski | 227 | USA | 0.7613 | +50000 | New | 0.15% |
Sungjae Im | 105 | KOR | 1.3902 | +50000 | New | 0.15% |
Harold Varner III | 167 | USA | 0.9705 | +50000 | New | 0.15% |
Matt Jones | 302 | AUS | 0.5930 | +50000 | New | 0.15% |
Jhonattan Vegas | 70 | VEN | 1.9509 | +50000 | New | 0.15% |
Jim Furyk | 279 | USA | 0.6455 | +50000 | New | 0.15% |
Andrew Johnston | 147 | ENG | 1.0872 | +50000 | New | 0.15% |
Dean Burmester | 114 | RSA | 1.3126 | +60000 | New | 0.13% |
Doug Ghim | 1220 | USA | 0.0613 | +60000 | New | 0.13% |
Russell Knox | 145 | SCO | 1.1089 | +60000 | New | 0.13% |
Aaron Baddeley | 244 | AUS | 0.7170 | +70000 | New | 0.11% |
Tom Lewis | 434 | ENG | 0.4003 | +72500 | New | 0.10% |
Tyler Duncan | 402 | USA | 0.4458 | +75000 | New | 0.10% |
Theo Humphrey | (a) | USA | (a) | +75000 | New | 0.10% |
Scott Piercy | 181 | USA | 0.9251 | +75000 | New | 0.10% |
Rikuya Hoshino | 311 | JPN | 0.5732 | +75000 | New | 0.10% |
Shintaro Ban | (a) | USA | (a) | +75000 | New | 0.10% |
Shota Akiyoshi | 183 | JPN | 0.9214 | +75000 | New | 0.10% |
Richie Ramsay | 168 | SCO | 0.9686 | +75000 | New | 0.10% |
Lanto Griffin | 328 | USA | 0.5420 | +75000 | New | 0.10% |
Brian Gay | 139 | USA | 1.1382 | +75000 | New | 0.10% |
Brian Stuard | 263 | USA | 0.6853 | +75000 | New | 0.10% |
Kristoffer Reitan | (a) | NOR | (a) | +80000 | New | 0.09% |
James Morrison | 355 | ENG | 0.5040 | +80000 | New | 0.09% |
Matthew Southgate | 189 | ENG | 0.8989 | +80000 | New | 0.09% |
Michael Hebert | 750 | USA | 0.1805 | +80000 | New | 0.09% |
Mackenzie Hughes | 248 | CAN | 0.7026 | +80000 | New | 0.09% |
Ernie Els | 696 | RSA | 0.2135 | +80000 | New | 0.09% |
Jason Scrivener | 186 | AUS | 0.9065 | +80000 | New | 0.09% |
Matthieu Pavon | 213 | FRA | 0.8034 | +80000 | New | 0.09% |
Ted Potter Jr | 84 | USA | 1.6921 | +80000 | New | 0.09% |
Dylan Meyer | (a) | USA | (a) | +90000 | New | 0.08% |
Kenny Perry | 1994 | USA | – | +90000 | New | 0.08% |
Luis Gagne | (a) | CRC | (a) | +100000 | New | 0.08% |
Michael Miller | 1151 | USA | 0.0735 | +100000 | New | 0.08% |
Michael Putnam | 1053 | USA | 0.0919 | +100000 | New | 0.08% |
Mickey DeMorat | (a) | USA | (a) | +100000 | New | 0.08% |
Noah Goodwin | 1994 | USA | – | +100000 | New | 0.08% |
Matt Parziale | 1994 | USA | – | +100000 | New | 0.08% |
Eric Axley | 390 | USA | 0.4631 | +100000 | New | 0.08% |
David Bransdon | 450 | AUS | 0.3820 | +100000 | New | 0.08% |
David Gazzolo | 1472 | USA | 0.0318 | +100000 | New | 0.08% |
Cameron Wilson | 1994 | USA | – | +100000 | New | 0.08% |
Chris Naegel | 1098 | USA | 0.0832 | +100000 | New | 0.08% |
Chris Babcock | 1994 | USA | – | +100000 | New | 0.08% |
Chun An Yu | (a) | TPE | (a) | +100000 | New | 0.08% |
Cole Miller | 1994 | USA | – | +100000 | New | 0.08% |
Jacob Bergeron | (a) | USA | (a) | +100000 | New | 0.08% |
Garrett Rank | 1994 | CAN | – | +100000 | New | 0.08% |
Harry Ellis | (a) | ENG | (a) | +100000 | New | 0.08% |
Ryan Evans | 301 | ENG | 0.5939 | +100000 | New | 0.08% |
Wen-Chong Liang | 491 | CHN | 0.3333 | +100000 | New | 0.08% |
Will Grimmer | (a) | USA | (a) | +100000 | New | 0.08% |
Will Zalatoris | 1994 | USA | – | +100000 | New | 0.08% |
Stewart Hagestad | (a) | USA | (a) | +100000 | New | 0.08% |
Sulman Raza | (a) | USA | (a) | +100000 | New | 0.08% |
Sung Joon Park | 1634 | KOR | 0.0223 | +100000 | New | 0.08% |
Tyler Strafaci | (a) | USA | (a) | +100000 | New | 0.08% |
Tim Wilkinson | 770 | NZL | 0.1711 | +100000 | New | 0.08% |
Timothy Wiseman | (a) | USA | (a) | +100000 | New | 0.08% |
Michael Block | 1994 | USA | – | +100000 | New | 0.08% |
Rhett Rasmussen | (a) | USA | (a) | +100000 | New | 0.08% |
Philip Barbaree | 1994 | USA | – | +100000 | New | 0.08% |
Sebastian Vazquez | 1399 | MEX | 0.0376 | +100000 | New | 0.08% |
Scott Gregory | 1294 | ENG | 0.0500 | +100000 | New | 0.08% |
Ryan Lumsden | (a) | SCO | (a) | +100000 | New | 0.08% |
Calum Hill | (a) | SCO | (a) | +100000 | New | 0.08% |
Franklin Huang | (a) | USA | (a) | +200000 | New | 0.04% |