Futures Odds & Predictions to Win the 2018 US Open

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The 118th U.S. Open is set to get underway this week at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club in Long Island, NY.  This is considered by many one of the Top 5 courses in the world.  Past champions include Raymond Floyd (1986), Corey Pavin (1995) and Retief Goosen (2004).

Golf purists rejoice as this will be a much more difficult test for the players after they took apart Erin Hills last year.  Thanks to the addition of 10 new tees, the USGA has added 444 yards to the 2004 setup, which was still one of the toughest in U.S. Open history.  It now stretches to 7,440 yards in length.
The course played to roughly a 73 average on the stock par 70 in each of the first three rounds in 2004, but that ballooned to 78.73 in the final round.  It remains the highest mark for a finale in a tournament since data was first maintained in 1983.But the USGA won’t allow that again, so there will be wider fairways, and the greens won’t be as baked out, especially if they get the rain anticipated for Wednesday.  After that, it will be perfect conditions for all four days of the tournament.

Now it’s time to give you my top four contenders as well as a long shot pick to win the 2018 U.S. Open.  I factor in the odds with my picks to look for value.  I’m not just going to pick the four favorites, because there is no value in that.  But if you place a win bet on all five of the guys I list and one hits, you will be taking home a big payday come Sunday.

Best Bets: Top U.S. Open Contenders

Jordan Spieth (+1775) – Spieth just seems to show up in the majors.  He has the best score to par in all majors since the start of 2015, and ranks 1st in many other categories when it pertains to majors.  He worked on his long game this season and is hitting the driver better than he ever has.  That work has led to a rare lapse in putting, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him find the stroke this week and put it all together.  He won the US Open in 2015 and is second in strokes gained tee-to-green this season.

Rickie Fowler (+1685) – Has two Top 5s in his last four U.S. Open appearances.  Fowler is still the best to not win a major on the PGA Tour, but some of that pressure has been lifted for this week.  He just got engaged last week, and that sense of security could put his mind at ease.  He also has a love for Shinnecock Hills and joined Tom Brady, Jimmy Dunne and Phil Mickelson for a practice round on a different course Tuesday, so he is feeling comfortable to say the least.

Phil Mickelson (+2800) – Mickelson is one of only five players who have played at U.S. Opens at Shinnecock in both 1995 and 2004.  He place T4 in 1995 and solo 2nd in 2004.  He loves the place, and he desperately wants to win the career Grand Slam in front of the fans in New York, who have treated him with nothing but love in previous U.S. Opens.  He also turns 48 on Saturday, so the great vibes are there.  This could be his last chance to win a U.S. Open, and the form he’s shown thus far this season gives me no reason to believe he won’t.

Louis Oosthuizen (+6500) – Always seems to pop up near the top of the leaderboard at majors.  Oosthuizen has Top 15s in five of his last seven starts.  He is one of the best ball-strikers in the game and actually leads the TOUR in scrambling of all things this season.  That will bode well for him at a place where scrambling will be of utmost importance.  He finished T2 in the U.S. Open at Chambers Bay in 2015.

Long Shot Pick

Brandt Snedeker (+11500) – Comes in with great form after a T6 in Memphis last week, helped by a second-round 62.  Has five Top 10s among eight Top 25s in 11 U.S. Open appearances.  In fact, he is one of just four golfers with Top 10s in three of the last five U.S. Opens (Fowler, Day, Johnson).  That track record in the toughest test in golf gives me no other choice but to take a shot on Snedeker at a huge price here.

2018 US Open Betting Odds

Below you’ll find the complete odds for winning this year’s US Open from 5Dimes.  We’ve included each golfer’s world rank, country, average points on tour this season, their current odds, how much those odds have changed since our last update, and our US Open probability to win, which is the percentage chance of winning given the current market odds on each player.

5Dimes and other major books use money lines for futures odds like this as they are more nuanced and easier to understand than fractional odds, which make sense for something like 7/1, but breaks down once you start having to post odds at 9/5 or 15/17.  The easiest way to think about these odds is that the + amount is the amount you would win with a $100 bet.  For example, if you bet $100 on Dustin Johnston to win at +775, you’d win $775.

Player World Rank Country Avg Points Odds Change US Open
Dustin Johnson 1 USA 9.2820 +775 New 8.65%
Justin Rose 3 ENG 8.2782 +1300 New 5.41%
Rory McIlroy 6 NIR 7.0658 +1400 New 5.05%
Justin Thomas 2 USA 8.9947 +1450 New 4.88%
Jason Day 8 AUS 6.5743 +1500 New 4.73%
Rickie Fowler 7 USA 6.8714 +1685 New 4.24%
Jon Rahm 5 ESP 7.6781 +1700 New 4.20%
Jordan Spieth 4 USA 7.7787 +1775 New 4.04%
Brooks Koepka 9 USA 5.8157 +2400 New 3.03%
Phil Mickelson 20 USA 4.4546 +2800 New 2.61%
Hideki Matsuyama 10 JPN 5.5709 +2800 New 2.61%
Henrik Stenson 17 SWE 4.7614 +2900 New 2.52%
Tiger Woods 80 USA 1.7970 +3000 New 2.44%
Branden Grace 34 RSA 3.2575 +3600 New 2.05%
Bryson DeChambeau 22 USA 4.0677 +4000 New 1.85%
Tommy Fleetwood 12 ENG 5.1778 +4500 New 1.65%
Paul Casey 11 ENG 5.2366 +5000 New 1.48%
Patrick Reed 13 USA 5.1356 +5000 New 1.48%
Marc Leishman 14 AUS 4.8459 +5000 New 1.48%
Sergio Garcia 15 ESP 4.8026 +6000 New 1.24%
Patrick Cantlay 29 USA 3.4811 +6000 New 1.24%
Louis Oosthuizen 33 RSA 3.2750 +6500 New 1.15%
Alex Noren 16 SWE 4.7917 +6600 New 1.13%
Tony Finau 37 USA 3.0861 +6600 New 1.13%
Webb Simpson 21 USA 4.1777 +6600 New 1.13%
Adam Scott 67 AUS 2.0256 +7000 New 1.07%
Bubba Watson 19 USA 4.5165 +7500 New 1.00%
Matt Kuchar 25 USA 3.8553 +8000 New 0.93%
Jimmy Walker 55 USA 2.3262 +9000 New 0.83%
Emiliano Grillo 52 ARG 2.3734 +10000 New 0.75%
Brandt Snedeker 89 USA 1.5881 +11500 New 0.65%
Xander Schauffele 26 USA 3.7178 +12500 New 0.60%
Rafael Cabrera Bello 24 ESP 3.8669 +12500 New 0.60%
Byeong Hun An 57 KOR 2.2821 +12500 New 0.60%
Luke List 54 USA 2.3596 +12500 New 0.60%
Peter Uihlein 49 USA 2.3839 +14000 New 0.54%
Zach Johnson 60 USA 2.1752 +15000 New 0.50%
Shane Lowry 85 IRL 1.6831 +15000 New 0.50%
Tyrrell Hatton 23 ENG 3.8706 +15000 New 0.50%
Kyle Stanley 38 USA 3.0450 +15000 New 0.50%
Keegan Bradley 69 USA 1.9606 +15000 New 0.50%
Ian Poulter 27 ENG 3.6637 +17500 New 0.43%
Charl Schwartzel 44 RSA 2.5726 +17500 New 0.43%
Martin Kaymer 118 GER 1.2935 +17500 New 0.43%
Gary Woodland 40 USA 2.7050 +18500 New 0.41%
Jason Dufner 53 USA 2.3711 +20000 New 0.38%
Daniel Berger 43 USA 2.6254 +20000 New 0.38%
Matthew Fitzpatrick 39 ENG 2.7999 +20000 New 0.38%
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 31 THA 3.4069 +20000 New 0.38%
Siwoo Kim 46 KOR 2.5158 +20000 New 0.38%
Steve Stricker 134 USA 1.1536 +20000 New 0.38%
Russell Henley 58 USA 2.2536 +20000 New 0.38%
Aaron Wise 71 USA 1.9486 +20000 New 0.38%
Brian Harman 28 USA 3.5480 +20000 New 0.38%
Brendan Steele 48 USA 2.3971 +22500 New 0.33%
Adam Hadwin 47 CAN 2.5018 +25000 New 0.30%
Patrick Rodgers 128 USA 1.2137 +25000 New 0.30%
Trey Mullinax 164 USA 0.9921 +25000 New 0.30%
Chez Reavie 50 USA 2.3796 +25000 New 0.30%
Graeme McDowell 172 NIR 0.9600 +27500 New 0.27%
Thorbjorn Olesen 73 DEN 1.9248 +27500 New 0.27%
Ollie Schniederjans 98 USA 1.4534 +30000 New 0.25%
Pat Perez 32 USA 3.3468 +30000 New 0.25%
Ross Fisher 41 ENG 2.6663 +30000 New 0.25%
Kevin Kisner 30 USA 3.4492 +30000 New 0.25%
Charles Howell III 59 USA 2.2142 +35000 New 0.22%
Cameron Smith 42 AUS 2.6279 +35000 New 0.22%
Alexander Levy 51 FRA 2.3744 +37500 New 0.20%
Bill Haas 88 USA 1.5972 +40000 New 0.19%
Braden Thornberry 797 USA 0.1601 +40000 New 0.19%
Danny Willett 413 ENG 0.4335 +40000 New 0.19%
Dylan Frittelli 61 RSA 2.1701 +40000 New 0.19%
Haotong Li 45 CHN 2.5357 +40000 New 0.19%
Kevin Chappell 56 USA 2.3245 +40000 New 0.19%
Lucas Glover 107 USA 1.3626 +40000 New 0.19%
Ryan Fox 124 NZL 1.2382 +40000 New 0.19%
Sam Burns 171 USA 0.9650 +40000 New 0.19%
Shubhankar Sharma 76 IND 1.8339 +40000 New 0.19%
Satoshi Kodaira 35 JPN 3.2134 +45000 New 0.17%
Scott Stallings 155 USA 1.0502 +50000 New 0.15%
Juan Sebastian Munoz 277 COL 0.6508 +50000 New 0.15%
Roberto Castro 262 USA 0.6858 +50000 New 0.15%
Matt Wallace 90 ENG 1.5860 +50000 New 0.15%
Paul Waring 247 ENG 0.7095 +50000 New 0.15%
Richy Werenski 227 USA 0.7613 +50000 New 0.15%
Sungjae Im 105 KOR 1.3902 +50000 New 0.15%
Harold Varner III 167 USA 0.9705 +50000 New 0.15%
Matt Jones 302 AUS 0.5930 +50000 New 0.15%
Jhonattan Vegas 70 VEN 1.9509 +50000 New 0.15%
Jim Furyk 279 USA 0.6455 +50000 New 0.15%
Andrew Johnston 147 ENG 1.0872 +50000 New 0.15%
Dean Burmester 114 RSA 1.3126 +60000 New 0.13%
Doug Ghim 1220 USA 0.0613 +60000 New 0.13%
Russell Knox 145 SCO 1.1089 +60000 New 0.13%
Aaron Baddeley 244 AUS 0.7170 +70000 New 0.11%
Tom Lewis 434 ENG 0.4003 +72500 New 0.10%
Tyler Duncan 402 USA 0.4458 +75000 New 0.10%
Theo Humphrey (a) USA (a) +75000 New 0.10%
Scott Piercy 181 USA 0.9251 +75000 New 0.10%
Rikuya Hoshino 311 JPN 0.5732 +75000 New 0.10%
Shintaro Ban (a) USA (a) +75000 New 0.10%
Shota Akiyoshi 183 JPN 0.9214 +75000 New 0.10%
Richie Ramsay 168 SCO 0.9686 +75000 New 0.10%
Lanto Griffin 328 USA 0.5420 +75000 New 0.10%
Brian Gay 139 USA 1.1382 +75000 New 0.10%
Brian Stuard 263 USA 0.6853 +75000 New 0.10%
Kristoffer Reitan (a) NOR (a) +80000 New 0.09%
James Morrison 355 ENG 0.5040 +80000 New 0.09%
Matthew Southgate 189 ENG 0.8989 +80000 New 0.09%
Michael Hebert 750 USA 0.1805 +80000 New 0.09%
Mackenzie Hughes 248 CAN 0.7026 +80000 New 0.09%
Ernie Els 696 RSA 0.2135 +80000 New 0.09%
Jason Scrivener 186 AUS 0.9065 +80000 New 0.09%
Matthieu Pavon 213 FRA 0.8034 +80000 New 0.09%
Ted Potter Jr 84 USA 1.6921 +80000 New 0.09%
Dylan Meyer (a) USA (a) +90000 New 0.08%
Kenny Perry 1994 USA +90000 New 0.08%
Luis Gagne (a) CRC (a) +100000 New 0.08%
Michael Miller 1151 USA 0.0735 +100000 New 0.08%
Michael Putnam 1053 USA 0.0919 +100000 New 0.08%
Mickey DeMorat (a) USA (a) +100000 New 0.08%
Noah Goodwin 1994 USA +100000 New 0.08%
Matt Parziale 1994 USA +100000 New 0.08%
Eric Axley 390 USA 0.4631 +100000 New 0.08%
David Bransdon 450 AUS 0.3820 +100000 New 0.08%
David Gazzolo 1472 USA 0.0318 +100000 New 0.08%
Cameron Wilson 1994 USA +100000 New 0.08%
Chris Naegel 1098 USA 0.0832 +100000 New 0.08%
Chris Babcock 1994 USA +100000 New 0.08%
Chun An Yu (a) TPE (a) +100000 New 0.08%
Cole Miller 1994 USA +100000 New 0.08%
Jacob Bergeron (a) USA (a) +100000 New 0.08%
Garrett Rank 1994 CAN +100000 New 0.08%
Harry Ellis (a) ENG (a) +100000 New 0.08%
Ryan Evans 301 ENG 0.5939 +100000 New 0.08%
Wen-Chong Liang 491 CHN 0.3333 +100000 New 0.08%
Will Grimmer (a) USA (a) +100000 New 0.08%
Will Zalatoris 1994 USA +100000 New 0.08%
Stewart Hagestad (a) USA (a) +100000 New 0.08%
Sulman Raza (a) USA (a) +100000 New 0.08%
Sung Joon Park 1634 KOR 0.0223 +100000 New 0.08%
Tyler Strafaci (a) USA (a) +100000 New 0.08%
Tim Wilkinson 770 NZL 0.1711 +100000 New 0.08%
Timothy Wiseman (a) USA (a) +100000 New 0.08%
Michael Block 1994 USA +100000 New 0.08%
Rhett Rasmussen (a) USA (a) +100000 New 0.08%
Philip Barbaree 1994 USA +100000 New 0.08%
Sebastian Vazquez 1399 MEX 0.0376 +100000 New 0.08%
Scott Gregory 1294 ENG 0.0500 +100000 New 0.08%
Ryan Lumsden (a) SCO (a) +100000 New 0.08%
Calum Hill (a) SCO (a) +100000 New 0.08%
Franklin Huang (a) USA (a) +200000 New 0.04%

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