The 2025 Preakness Stakes takes place on Saturday, May 17th at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, Maryland. This will be the 150th running of the Preakness Stakes, and it serves as the second leg of the Triple Crown, in between the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes.
While it’s usually a smaller field, this year’s Preakness sees 9 horses competing to win Saturday. Many trainers do not run their horses on only two weeks’ rest, which would be the case for any horse that ran in the Kentucky Derby.
The two weeks is a big reason why Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty has decided to forego a chance at the Triple Crown and instead prepare for the Belmont Stakes. The shorter distance of the Preakness at 1 3/16 miles is also a factor as Sovereignty is more of a closer that likes to go longer distances like the 1 1/4 mile Kentucky Derby.
But Journalism is among the horses coming back in two weeks from the Kentucky Derby. Journalism finished a game 2nd to Sovereignty and is the favorite to win the Preakness Stakes as a result. American Promise and Sandman are the other two horses coming back. Goal Oriented ran on the undercard at Churchill Downs two weeks ago, so he will be on short rest as well.
I crushed it with my 2025 Kentucky Derby Picks with the exotics. Check them out as I cashed in the Exacta, Trifecta and the Superfecta for a huge day. Each of my top 4 horses came in the top 4 spots! A $2 exacta paid $48.32, a $1 Trifecta paid $231.12 and a $1 Superfecta paid $1,682.27!
#1 Goal Oriented – He’s the only undefeated horse in the race but he has only run twice and has never run in a stakes race. This will be Bob Baffert’s only entry, and he would have had a much better shot with Rodriquez, who scratched in the Kentucky Derby due to injury and isn’t ready for the Preakness, either. Goal Oriented is much more of a speed horse who wants the lead early, and I don’t think he is bred for this distance and will falter late. The career best 91 Beyer Speed Figure also isn’t on par with the top contenders.
#3 American Promise – Won the Virginia Derby which was a weak field in preparation for the Kentucky Derby, where he went on to finish 16th in the 19-horse field after challenging the early pace and faltering late. With a sire in Justify and twice earning a 95 Beyer Speed Figure previously, American Promise does have some potential, but I just don’t love the spot for him and don’t think he’s good enough two weeks after that disappointing effort.
#4 Heart of Honor – Has finished 2nd or better in all six career starts. Finished 2nd to Admire Daytona in the UAE Derby. Admire Daytona finished dead last (19th) in the Kentucky Derby. Saffie Osborne, the 23-year old daughter of trainer Jamie Osborne, will attempt to become the first woman to win a Triple Crown race since 1993. I just don’t think she has the horse for it
#5 Pay Billy – Trainer Mike Gotham has been on the Preakness undercard 23 times, but now he will finally get to saddle his first horse in the Preakness Stakes. Pay Billy, the Federico Stakes winner, is a local favorite. The problem is he earned a career best 85 Beyer Speed Figure in that Federico Tesio, and that number is the lowest career-best Beyer of any horse in this field. He has won four of his last five starts, but all of them came at nearby Laurel Park, which isn’t exactly the place to find Triple Crown champions.
#7 Sandman – Sandman took a lot of public money in the Kentucky Derby due to social media influencer, Griffin Johnson. He did not live up to the hype finishing 7th. I also question his Arkansas Derby win that got him into the Kentucky Derby as that was a very weak field. He did earn a career best 99 Beyer in that Arkansas Derby which should make him a contender, but I think this horse is likely to get too much love again. He built a reputation as a late-running closer in that Arkansas Derby, but he got the perfect trip in the Kentucky Derby to do it again and just wasn’t close to being good enough. I’ll gladly leave him off my tickets again.
I’m most confident that Clever Again has the best shot to beat favorite Journalism. Trainer Steve Ausmussen had two runners in the Kentucky Derby in Tiztastic and Publisher. However, I believe his best 3-year-old is Clever Again, who has been targeting the Preakness and is rested. Horses that didn’t run in the Derby have won the lave five runnings of the Preakness.
The son of 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharaoh flashed his speed in April 2024 in a 4 1/2-furlong sprint finishing 2nd by a head. He didn’t come back until this past February and broke his maiden at Oaklawn Park in gate-to-wire fashion. Then in his last race, he wired the field again in the Hot Springs Stakes on March 30. He won by four lengths and earned a 101 Beyer Speed Figure, which is 2nd to only Journalism in this field.
While he will likely challenge the early pace for a 4th straight race, Clever Again has the pedigree to get the 9 1/2 furlongs. Not only is he the son of a Triple Crown winner, he is also out of a Galileo mare, so the bloodlines scream distance. Clever Again has the best shot to take down Journalism and I’m betting him accordingly.
I have no knocks on Journalism and he is the favorite for good reason. He won four consecutive races including the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity and the San Felipe Stakes, where he posted a 108 Beyer Speed Figure that is on par with Breeders’ Cup Classic winners in the fall.
He was caught up in traffic in his final prep in the Santa Anita Derby and had to make a move to eventually pass Baeza for a 3/4 length victory that produced a 102 Beyer Speed Figure. His 108 and 102 Beyer Speed Figures are the two best numbers of the Preakness Stakes contenders.
Journalism ran his race in the Kentucky Derby but just got beat by a better horse in Sovereignty. He is the best in this field at his best, but I question how much toll coming back in two weeks will take on this horse. No Kentucky Derby starter has won the Preakness Stakes since 2019 and no Derby winner has won since Justify in 2018.
Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher had two horses earn enough points to run in the Kentucky Derby. One was Grande, who was scratched from the Derby, and the other was River Thames. He skipped the Derby and targeted the Preakness Stakes likely because this is more of a speed horse and not quite bred for the distance of the Kentucky Derby or Belmont Stakes.
River Thames made his debut in January and won by 5 lengths while earning a 94 Beyer Speed Figure. He won his next start by 6 1/2 lengths. He turned for home with the lead in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, but he was caught at the wire by eventual Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty. That performances really opened my eyes to this horse. If he can hang with Sovereignty, he can hang with the top horses in the Preakness Stakes.
His last start in the Blue Grass Stakes wasn’t as impressive, but he still had a shot late against two Kentucky Derby horses. Late-running Burnham Square passed him at the wire, and he came up just short of a tiring East Avenue who set a blazing early pace. Burnham Square went on to finish a solid 6th in the Kentucky Derby.
He has had the last seven weeks off and has a great shot of improving on his career best 95 Beyer Speed Figure. Horses that didn’t run in the Derby have won the last five runnings of the Preakness. Possible distance limitations are the only reason I’m higher on Clever Again and Journalism than I am River Thames, but I’m using him in all my exotics.
My favorite long shot in the field, Gosger has some things going for him that I really like. He won his last two starts, including the Grade 3 Lexington Stakes on April 12th. So he is rested having five weeks off since, and horses that didn’t run in the Derby have won the last five runnings of the Preakness.
Gosger beat Hypnus by six lengths in the Lexington Stakes, and Hypnus just ran a game second to Goal Oriented on the Kentucky Derby undercard two weeks ago. That’s another reason I’m higher on Gosger and I’m throwing out Goal Oriented. He had a bullet workout on May 10 so he seems primed for his best effort yet in the Preakness Stakes.
He is going to need to improve on his career best Beyer Speed Figure of 88. Gosger is bred for the distance though, and it’s worth noting he will have a 4th different jockey in four starts Saturday. If anyone can get the most out of him, it is Luis Suez, who is one of the best jockeys in the country.
$60 to Win & $60 to Place on #8 (Costs $120)
$10 Exacta 8/2, 6, 9 (Costs $30 – 8 comes in 1st with 2, 6 or 9 in 2nd)
$10 Exacta 2, 6, 9/8 (Costs $30 – 8 comes in 2nd with 2, 6 or 9 in 1st)
$24 Exacta Box 2, 8 (Costs $48 – this is the most likely exacta so I want to be heavy on it)
$2 Trifecta Box 2, 6, 8, 9 (Costs $48 – You win if 3 of these 4 horses finish in the Top 3 in any order)
$1 Superfecta Box 2, 6, 8, 9 (Costs $24 – You win if these 4 horses finish in the Top 4 in any order)
| Post | Horse | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Goal Oriented | 6/1 |
| 2 | Journalism | 8/5 |
| 3 | American Promise | 15/1 |
| 4 | Heart of Honor | 12/1 |
| 5 | Pay Billy | 20/1 |
| 6 | River Thames | 9/2 |
| 7 | Sandman | 4/1 |
| 8 | Clever Again | 5/1 |
| 9 | Gosger | 20/1 |