2021 Preakness Stakes Expert Handicapper Win, Place, & Show Predictions

The 2021 Preakness Stakes takes place on Saturday, May 15th at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, Maryland. This will be the 146th running of the Preakness Stakes, and it serves as the second leg of the Triple Crown, in between the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes.

While it’s usually a smaller field, this year’s Preakness sees 10 horses competing to win Saturday. Many trainers do not run their horses on only two weeks’ rest, which would be the case for any horse that ran in the Kentucky Derby.

Win, Place, Show & Exotics Predictions

Win: No. 4 Crowded Trade (10/1)

The lightly raced colt has hit the board in all three of his races and has a top trainer in Chad Brown and a top jockey on Javier Castellano.  He has improved in all three of his races as well.

Crowded Trade is fresh after sitting out the Kentucky Derby.  He closed well while passing five horses in the stretch after getting a shaky start in the Wood Memorial for a third-place finish.  It was his first start around two turns and he should keep improving in his fourth career start.

He should get a good trip behind Concert Tour, Medina Spirit and give Chad Brown his second Preakness win.  His connections also won the Preakness in 2017 with Cloud Computing and made the right move to pass on the Derby.

Place: No. 10 Concert Tour (5/2)

Concert Tour is the only horse classified as a stalker in this race.  From 2013 to 2019, there were 27 horses in the Preakness that were classified as stalkers.  More than half (15) hit the board, four of them won and four others took second.

The pace won’t be very swift in the Preakness Stakes, which will benefit the first flight of horses and any that can stay within the pack before falling too far behind.  Medina Spirit and Midnight Bourbon are both front-runners that Concert Tour will be dueling with.

Concert Tour is the only horse in this race besides Kentucky Derby winner Medina Spirit that has two graded stakes wins to his name.  That’s a huge class advantage in this Triple Crown event.

Show: No. 9 Risk Taking (15/1)

Broke his maiden at the Withers at Aqueduct this winter over a pair of different surfaces than the main track at the Big A on Wood Memorial Day.  The track that day was deeper and tiring and he took a ton of dirt while amongst horses.  He won’t have that difficult a track at Pimlico either way.

Risk Taking is training as well as anyone coming into the Preakness Stakes, which prompted his connections to enter him this week. He will be fresh after not running in the Kentucky Derby. I am clearly high on the two Chad Brown-trained horses as this is another one in his stable along with Crowded Trade.

4th: No. 5 Midnight Bourbon (5/1)

Managed to finish 6th in the Kentucky Derby despite a troubled trip. He has hit the board in seven of eight career starts. He has the top jockey in North America on the saddle in Irad Ortiz Jr. as well.

Midnight Bourbon was actually slightly faster than Kentucky Derby winner Medina Spirit a few weeks ago when you adjust for distance traveled. His pedigree suggests he has more inherited speed, which will help him at this shorter distance. And the price is better than Medina Spirit.

Hall of Fame trainer Steve Ausmussen saw enough from in him the Derby to bring back the eye-catching son of Tiznow on two weeks’ rest. Ausmussen will be going for his third Preakness win and it would be hard to leave this one out of the exotics after what he showed in the Derby after such a troubled trip.

Exacta, Trifecta & Superfecta Picks:

Across the Board: 4 to Win, Place & Show ($20 across the board costs $60)

Exacta Box: 4, 5, 9, 10 ($2 exacta box costs $24)

Trifecta Box:  4, 5, 9, 10 ($2 trifecta box costs $48)

Superfecta Box: 4, 5, 9, 10 ($1 superfecta box costs $24)

2021 Preakness Stakes Odds & Posts Positions

Post Horse Odds
1 Ram 30/1
2 Keepmeinmind 15/1
3 Medina Spirit 9/5
4 Crowded Trade 10/1
5 Midnight Bourbon 5/1
6 Rombauer 12/1
7 France Go de Ina 20/1
8 Unbridled Honor 15/1
9 Risk Taking 15/1
10 Concert Tour 5/2

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