Vegas NFL Game Preview & Free Betting Pick: Vikings vs Bills

The Minnesota Vikings will try to put last week’s tie behind them when they host the Buffalo Bills in Week 3. Kickoff is set for 1:00 EST on Sunday, September 23, at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The game will be available on CBS in local markets.

The Vikings are listed as an astounding 16.5-point favorite to beat the Bills. The over/under for his game is set at 40.5 points. Click here to see a full list of the Week 3 NFL odds.

Vikings vs Bills Vegas Game Preview & Betting Odds

There’s no sense in sugar coating it, the Bills are on the verge of becoming the laughing stock of the NFL. It started when the Bills were destroyed by the Ravens 47-3 in their season opener. Things got a little last week after Josh Allen took over as the starting quarterback. Being at home also might have helped a little, but Buffalo still lost to the Chargers 31-20. It may be only two games, but the Bills are second-to-last in the NFL in both points scored and points against. To say things are looking bleak would be an understatement.

The Vikings, meanwhile, will feel content but not quite satisfied with their start to the season. After taking care of business against the 49ers in their season opener, the Vikings failed to capitalize on a chance to beat the Packers on the road last week. Three missed field goals by Daniel Carlson could have cost Minnesota the game and did cost the rookie his job. However, the Vikings could have easily lost the game as well, so they can’t be too upset.

With that tie last week, the top spot in the NFC North is still up for grabs. After this week’s home game, the Vikings have back-to-back road tests against the Rams and Eagles, so it’s crucial that they win this week and don’t overlook the Bills. Buffalo, on the other hand, is just looking for any reason to be optimistic about the season. They may even be satisfied with a close loss against a team like Minnesota.

Free NFL Pick Against the Spread: Vikings -16.5

NFL games rarely have a spread this high, especially this early in the season. However, this game definitely warrants it, so I’m going to swallow the points and lean toward the Vikings to cover. If the Bills were at home, there may be some hope for them in this game. However, on the road, it’s tough to justify taking the Bills to keep this game close enough to beat the spread.

Buffalo’s biggest problem right now is their offense, but not necessarily their rookie quarterback. The Bills have been a disaster on the offensive line, which wasn’t unexpected after the turnover they had upfront during the offseason. Through two games, the Bills have allowed 11 sacks, which is simply unacceptable. It’s also incredibly worrisome when you consider the pass rushers the Vikings have on their roster and the fact that Minnesota has seven sacks through two games.

On top of leaving the quarterback hanging, Buffalo’s offensive line has made it next to impossible for them to establish a running game. If you take away the yards Allen has accumulated while running for his life, the Bills barely have 100 yards rushing through two games. To make matters worse, LeSean McCoy is dealing with a rib injury. He’ll likely attempt to play this week, but he’s unlikely to be at 100%. The Vikings may not even need to crowd the box with eight or nine players to slow down McCoy the way some teams do. That will make things all the more difficult for Allen against the Minnesota defense.

If you look at the numbers two weeks into the season, the Vikings haven’t been nearly as dominant on defense as they were last season. However, it’s important to keep in mind that they’ve faced two good offensive teams and two excellent quarterbacks in Jimmy Garoppolo and Aaron Rodgers. Minnesota’s defense has the same caliber of talent as in 2017, so against a rookie quarterback and a team with no running game, I expect them to have a dominating performance.

Of course, the Vikings will need to be clicking offensively in order to cover such a big spread. Buffalo’s defense has given up a lot of points the past two weeks, but they are far from helpless. However, Kirk Cousins has looked sharp in his first two games wearing purple. Wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen have also looked outstanding. I expect them to give the Buffalo secondary plenty of trouble. The x-factor will be the health of running back Dalvin Cook. He’s gotten off to a slow start and is dealing with a minor hamstring issue. But if he can get going, the Vikings should steamroll the Bills on Sunday.

Short of the Vikings being devoid of focus and effort, it’s tough to imagine the Bills staying competitive in this game for more than a quarter. If Minnesota gives a professional performance, they should have no trouble covering the 16.5-point spread. The gap between these two teams is truly that big, so I have no problem swallowing the points and leaning toward the Vikings.

Read More Like This