The Green Bay Packers will try to stay unbeaten at home this year and grab a much-needed win in Week 10 when they host the Miami Dolphins. The fun kicks off at 4:25 EST on Sunday, November 11, at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin. Fans in large sections of the country will be able to watch the game on CBS.
The Packers enter the game as 10-point home favorites. The over/under is set at 47.5 points. Click here to check out a full list of betting odds and game previews for the entire Week 10 schedule.
After enduring a rough October, the Dolphins managed to keep themselves in the thick of the AFC playoff race with a win over the Jets last week. The win pushed Miami back over .500 at 5-4. Despite being two games behind the Patriots in the AFC East, the Dolphins are still in a good position to earn a wild-card spot heading into the second half of the season.
Following this week’s road trip to Green Bay, the Dolphins will finally get their bye week. Miami will then play four of their final six games against teams with a losing record, including two games against the lowly Bills. If the Dolphins can steal a win this week to reach 6-4, they should feel good about their playoff chances heading down the stretch with that schedule.
The Packers, on the other hand, are approaching must-win territory in their season. After last week’s loss to the Patriots, Green Bay is 3-4-1, falling further behind the Bears and Vikings at the top of the NFC North. The Packers have now lost three of their last four games. To be fair, all three losses have come on the road, including games against the Rams and Patriots.
Green Bay’s December schedule gets a little easier, but it could be a struggle to make it there while still in the playoff picture. After hosting the Dolphins, the Packers have a Thursday night road game in Seattle next week followed by a Sunday night game in Minnesota. If we assume that it’ll be tough for Green Bay to win either of those games, Sunday’s game against the Dolphins is a must-win for the Pack.
To be honest, both of these teams are giving me more reasons to pick against them this week than to pick in their favor. However, the double-digit spread has convinced me to take the underdog. If you take away the miracle comeback in Week 1, Green Bay’s only wins this year are against the Bills and 49ers. That’s not enough for me to swallow 10 points. Instead, I’ll take my chances with Miami beating the spread.
To be fair, this Miami team is not the same team that started the season 3-0. Ryan Tannehill remains out with a shoulder injury, which has forced Brock Osweiler to start the last four games. Osweiler, to his credit, hasn’t been terrible. The Dolphins are 2-2 in the games he’s started, and despite going back-to-back weeks without a touchdown pass, Osweiler has had plenty of positive moments over the past month. He should do enough to at least give the Dolphins a chance to win in Green Bay
Keep in mind that Osweiler has faced some tough defensive teams, doing so with a somewhat diminished receiving corps after Albert Wilson went down for the season. It’s not as if the Green Bay defense is anything special. The Packers have been subpar defending the run this year, which should help the Miami rushing attack give Osweiler some support. Green Bay’s secondary is also a little banged up on the heels of trading away Ha Ha Clinton-Dix. I wouldn’t be that surprised to see Osweiler find some passing lanes and have one of his better games against the Packers.
The Green Bay offense, meanwhile, is still relying too much on the duo of Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams. In theory, that’s not a bad idea, but with three losses in their last four games, it’s clearly not been enough. The Packers still aren’t giving enough touches to Aaron Jones, who’s been a productive running back since returning from his suspension in Week 3. Of course, after a costly fumble last week, they may not be eager to lean on Jones too much this week.
Given Miami’s inconsistency on defense this year, there’s at least some chance Rodgers can get the job done on his own. However, the Dolphins are at least coming off a good performance last week, forcing four turnovers against the Jets. Also, keep in mind that there’s a difference between Rodgers doing enough to win the game for Green Bay and doing enough for the Packers to cover.
Ultimately, I have too many doubts about the Packers to swallow the 10 points. With both teams eager to get a win, I think the Dolphins will be able to get enough out of Osweiler and their defense to keep this game close. The Packers will win the game but Miami will beat the spread.