Alex Smart

The Yankees starting pitcher  tpday Max Fried  enters this game in top form as is evident by his  1.42 ERA. He has allowed two earned runs or fewer in all five of his starts since joining the Yankees. Meanwhile,  Blue Jays starter Kevin Gausman is up trending and looking strong procuring  22 strikeouts in his last three starts this season  along with a viable 3.16 ERA. Im betting both hurlers go long and straong and for this total not to be eclipsed .Toronto games vs. a team with a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better are 10-0 UNDER this season with a combined average of 5.6 rpg scored.Toronto games vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season are 8-0 UNDER this season with a combined average of 5.3 rpg scored.NY Yankees home games vs. terrible power teams - averaging 0.75 or less HR's/game are 11-1 UNDER since 2023 with a combined average of 6.4 rpg scored.

Play under

  OKC has won 12 straight games against Memphis,  ans 10 of those 12 games have stayed under the total. This is in part due to the Thunder being the best defensive team in the league  and know how to slow down the Grizzlies. Other than that big time 40 point out put in the first quarter of the last game, the Grizzlies have been more like teddy bears against this strong Thunder D.In the reg season the Grizzlies were a  top 10 for fastbreak pounts team with  (16.7), Here in the post season they have (4.0) and have overall struggled to connect with the trey overall. After that huge surge last time out and still losing they are now highly likely out of gas and could produce a lower scoring output than even the lines-makers expect. The market has adjusted downward on this number, but rightfully so. Note: Memphis games versus below average foul drawing teams - attempting 21 or less free throws/game - 2nd half of the season are 11-1 UNDER.

Play under

The Clippers after barely losing game 1 of this series in OT by 2 points, have now won the last two games and deserve respect here as favs in game 4 at home, especially after owning game 3 as is evident by the 117-83 final score. . The Clippers  have been the better team this series and own a strong   home court advantage in the Intuit Dome.  It must be noted that entering game 3 of this series Opp FT% playing here is the lowest in the league. HC Ty Lue when hes got his team in a groove and adjusted to his oppositions mode of play is lights out one of the leagues best coaches. . NBAUnderdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points - revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more, off a road loss by 10 points or more are 13-44 ATS since 2021. NBAFavorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line - after 3 or more consecutive unders, an average offensive team (108-114 PPG) against a poor defensive team (114-118 PPG) after 42+ game are 28-1 SU with a average ppg diff clicking in at +15.

Play on the Clippers to cover

With HC Sploestra on the sidelines for the Heat they must not be underestimated. I said from the beginning of this series that I believed the Heat were capable of stealing at least one win this series vs the run and gun Cavaliers, and tonite could easily be that nite, as the Heat are in desperation mode in this series down 2-0 and will come out here like gang busters. Clevelands HC Kenny Atkinson stressed he expects a fight from the Heat. Quote:"This is not your typical 10-seed,"  END QUOTE: Atkinson was referring to his play off opponents the Heat, which finished 10th in the Eastern Conference regular-season standings before snatching the No. 8 seed with play-in round victories over the Chicago Bulls and Atlanta Hawks. I know containing  Cleveland's top scorer, who averaged 24.0 points in the regular season, is key for Miami.  In a December meeting the Heat held Donovan Mitchell to just 12 points on 5-of-16 shooting from the floor. So despite of Mitchells hot start in this series, he can be slowed. Since the 1997 season, NBA teams like Miami after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half against opponent after scoring 120 points or more 2 straight games are 91-99 SU, with the key being that the average ppg diff clicked in at -1.9 which easily qualifies on this ATS offering. Also Cleveland has cashed 15 of 24 off a road loss and are 8-3 ATS with 2 days rest or more.

Play on the Heat