Alex Smart

The Heat enter off a 121-110 overtime win over the Raptors on Tuesday  and are obviously on tired legs and will not Im betting have alot of energy tonight vs the Celtics and will play with a defensive mind set. Meanwhile, their hosts the Celtics are a defence first team , ranking 5th in ppg allowed behind a deliberate pace . that ranks 21st in the league. The above combination of betting leads to a combined score that remains on the low side of the total. 

BOSTON is 33-19 UNDER  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 209.9 ppg which gives us more than a possession edge, making this a viable under situation. 

NBA team (MIAMI /BOSTON) - in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), in December games are 50-18 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

The Bucks enter into this Central Division tilt against the Pistons on  a 12-game winning streak  .  they have owned the Pistons since the beginning of last season. They swept the four-game regular-season series and their first-round playoff series and Im betting on more of the same action here tonight in Motown. 

MILWAUKEE is 13-4 ATS  as a road favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 2 seasons.

Casey is 2-12 ATS  versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game as the coach of DETROIT. with the average ppg diff clicking in at -14.3 ppg. 

Budenholzer is 20-5 ATS vs. division opponents as the coach of MILWAUKEE with the averaging diff clicking in at  +13.7 ppg. 

Play on Milwaukee to cover 

 GOALTENDERS: OTTAWA - ANDERS NILSSON, EDMONTON - MIKKO KOSKINEN

The Ottawa Senators are having a hard time finding the back of the net, averaging just 2.2 gpg on the road this season, and just 1.2 gpg in their L/5 overall tilts and are on tired legs as they play their 3rd game in 5 nights, and will once again have problems scoring because of what Im betting will be a lack of energy and obvious cohesiveness. What Im betting here is that the Sens go into turtle mode, and play out of transition which will effect the games pace and offensive output.  

My projections estimate that Ottawa will not exceed a 2 goal output. Note: EDMONTON is 32-7 UNDER in home games when they allow 2 or less goals over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 4.8 gpg going on the board.

EDMONTON is 11-4 UNDER (+6.3 Units) against poor defensive teams - 29 or more  shots on goal, convert 17% or more  pp this season with a combined average of 4.8 gpg scored.

NHL Home teams where the total is 6 or more (EDMONTON) - off a road win against a division rival, tired team - playing their 3rd game in 5 days are 168-114 L/23 seasons for a long term 60% conversion rate for bettors. 

 Play UNDER 

 GOALTENDERS: COLORADO - PHILIPP GRUBAUER, TORONTO - MICHAEL HUTCHINSON

Toronto after making a coaching change because of lack of defence, won 3 straight games, but have now lost 2 of 3 while allowing 6 goals each time. It looks like their falling back into depending on the talented offence to do all the work, but neglecting their defensive responsibilities, something that comes natural to guys like Tavares, Marner and Martin and another dozen Leafs. Something has to change quickly, and tonight I expect the Leafs to concentrate on playing much better D, and play this game out of transition vs a Colorado side that can torch them if allowed to run and gun. 

Play UNDER 

Marylands offence is really clicking and have scored, an average of more than 81 ppg this season.  Notre Dame is averaging 77+ ppg. I know both Ds, are playing well, but Maryland in particular, has shown a propensity to be able to score against the best of defences, and Im betting nothing changes tonight. Meanwhile, Notre Dame will Im betting have to chase or be blown off the court which will result in combined score that eclipses the total.  

MARYLAND is 6-0 OVER  in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  80% or better over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 149.2 ppg scored. 

Play OVER 

With the off season the departures of Russell Westbrook, Paul George and Jerami Grant  the Thunder continue to search for consistency. Tonight  after winning 3 of their L/4 overall Im betting the rested Thunder  find their form again vs a Pacers side that is on tired legs and that they have revenge against for a loss they suffered in Indiana earlier this season!  OKLAHOMA CITY is 9-1 ATS  in home games when playing with 2 days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Thunder are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.Thunder are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (INDIANA) - off a road win, tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days are 31-62 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 67% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA team (INDIANA) - after beating the spread by 48 or more points total in their last seven games against opponent after going under the total by more than 12 points in two consecutive games are 9-30 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Oklahoma City Thunder to cover 

After playing all out basketball in a win vs the Denver Nuggets in the High altitudes of Mile High city last night Im betting on the Lakers showing signs of exhaustion, and for a regression performance tonight vs a Utah Jazz team that plays their best hoops at home as is evident by their 8-1 record. Note:  Denver at 5,280 feet, while Salt Lake City is only slightly lower at 4,226 feet. So lung capacity and energy levels for the visitors will be at low levels. 

The Jazz are 16-0 ATS/SU as a favorite with less than two days rest coming off a loss.

NBA ll teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (LA LAKERS) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game, after allowing 100 points or more 5 straight games ARE 4-27  SU L/5 seasons for a  go against 87% conversion rate . 

NBA teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA LAKERS) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game, after allowing 100 points or more 5 straight games are 5-26 ATS L/23 seasons for ago against 84% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Utah Jazz to cover 

Wow, how the mighty have fallen the great Warriors, are now a sub .500 team that is struggling to find a new identify. However despite of their nasty looking SU record they have been competitive of late covering 4 of their L/6 overall. Tonight against a Charlotte team they match up well against, Im betting we have value on the line taking points. Add to that Golden State has revenge on board a November home loss to the Hornets, and we have a motivated underdog to back.  Note: GOLDEN STATE is 12-3 ATS in road games revenging a same season loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.

 GOLDEN STATE is 11-2 ATS in road games versus struggling teams - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.

CHARLOTTE is 8-27 ATS  when playing 8 or more games in 14 days over the last 3 seasons.CHARLOTTE is 10-22 ATS  in home games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons

NBA Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (GOLDEN STATE) - in non-conference games, off 3 or more consecutive road losses are 35-9 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Golden State to cover

My College basketball selections are indepthly researched with no stone left unturned in bringing long term winning selections to my clients. Injury reports, trends, coaching tendencies, systems, matchup discrepancies , as well as line movement and mathematical line advantages are all used to make an intelligent well thought out investment decision.

Oklahoma State is not a run and gun team  and operates under a defense first  concept that suffocates opposition via deliberate pace. Georgetown is not as explosive offensively as some power 5 teams, and despite of not being easily intimidated will have problems with their   flow  in transition today which will effect their out put. 

OKLAHOMA ST is 19-9 UNDER  in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 139.8 ppg scored. OKLAHOMA ST is 15-2 UNDER  after a win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons with a combination of 140.8 ppg going on the board. OKLAHOMA ST is 11-2 UNDER  as a home favorite of 10 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 137.4 ppg scored.  

CBB teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (OKLAHOMA ST) - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 42-16 UNDER  L5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

 UNDER