Alex Smart

Phillies starter Nola is is 10-2 OVER  with a team slugging percentage of .440 or better on the season (NL) over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 10.8 rpg scored. I know Nola has pitched well lately but he   is 14-5 OVER  after giving up 1 or less earned runs last outing over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 11.1 rpg scored. 

Lugo the Mets starting pitcher is also doing decently, but according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings the Phillies matchup well against hime. 

PHILADELPHIA in 8 games with  with a money line at home of -100 to -150 this season has seen an average of 10.2 rpg scored. 

 NY METS in 14 games  against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 this season have seen a combined average of 9.5 rpg scored. 

Note:  The Phillies are 10-0 L/10 OVER  as a favorite off a loss as a dog in which they held the lead with a combined average of 12.8 rpg scored. 

Play OVER 

Miami really was lights-out efficient in game 1 of this series offensively and now Im betting on a regression and for both these teams to settle into a much slower paced game here in game 2 after the game 1 OT affair. 

Under is 7-3 in Heat last 10 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Under is 5-0 in Celtics last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. 

NBA teams where the Under is 7-1 in Celtics last 8 games playing on 1 days rest.

 NBA teams with a total of  200 to 209.5 (BOSTON) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game against opponent after scoring 115 points or more are 34-8 UNDER  L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

Houston was upended (embarrassed) by Texas last night 1-0, wasting a fine pitching performance  and will now be desperate to bounce back making them a viable side to back. Yes, even at these high of a line. 

TEXAS is 0-11  against the money line in road games vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .320 or worse this season. TEXAS is 3-15  against the money line as a road underdog of +100 or higher this season.

 The Rangers are 0-17 SU since Aug 26, 2018 as a 140+ dog after they were shut out in the first 6 innings.

MLB underdogs with a money line of +150 or more (TEXAS) - bad offensive team (4.2  or less runs/game) against a decent starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 to 4.70)-AL, with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 10 games are 3-32 L/5 seasons for go against for a 92% conversion rate. 

Play on the Houston Astros to win 

The Browns averaged just 4.5 yards per play in offence  and scored just 6 points  in Week 1 while the Bengals produced data that came in at  4.4 yards per play  and just  13 points . Im betting both sides offensive woes will continue here this Thursday night and this total will stay on the low side of the number.

Week one and two non divisional games have been ATMs for totals bettors hotting the under as is evident by a 44-23-1 record dating back to the 2005 season for a 66% conversion rate. 

Under is 8-1-1 in Bengals last 10 games as a road underdog. 

Under is 5-0 in Browns last 5 Thursday games. Under is 15-5-1 in Browns last 21 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Under is 20-7 in Browns last 27 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.

Under is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings in Cleveland.

Play UNDER 

The Islanders played their hearts out in game 5 and barely escaped with a victory in OT by a 2-1 count. Truth is the Isles are still a few pieces away from winning a Stanley Cup in my opinion, and the Bolts on most nights play a better form of Barry Trotz hockey than the Isles can at this juncture in their development. 

Lightning are 43-8 in their last 51 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game.

Islanders are 6-15 in their last 21 games as an underdog.

Islanders are 1-4 in their last 5 games following a win.

Play on the Tampa Bay Lightning to win