Alex Smart

HOUSTON is 8-0 UNDER  against Central division opponents over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 221.5 ppg scored and enter this game on a current 8 game streak of unders. Rinse and repeat here despite of a partially revamped new lineup. 


NBA Home teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (CHICAGO) - after going over the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games against opponent after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games are 51-18 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (HOUSTON) - after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record are 31-11 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

The New York Knicks delivered a huge victory that felt like it was  years in the making on Sunday when they routed the Boston Celtics. But now after playing all out and now in a letdown state and on tired legs as they are on back to back tilts, Im expecting the Magic come out of this with a win. ORLANDO is 26-13 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. ORLANDO is 25-14 ATS   as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Play on Orlando to cover

Baylor is obviously a public favorite and the new power house on the national scene and the Big 12 where they reside. However it must be noted that Kansas beat Baylor on the road at the end of last season and really must be respected and given the benefit of the doubt as a pernial power 5 program. You can bet that these kids on the Jayahwsk roster know what the line is here, and are feeling under appreciated and defintely not be respected which Im betting will bring the best out in them. Meanwhile, Baylor  showed their vulnerabilty as mere mortals last time by converting just 41.8 percent of their shots  and was outrebounded in the win at Texas Tech, and were  also held to fewer than 70 points for the second straight game after averaging 91.2 points through their first 10 games. Bill Self'sability to have his team ready gives me confidence in taking points here this evening. KANSAS is 13-2 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. KANSAS is 7-0 ATS  in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing 64 or less points/game over the last 2 seasons. KANSAS is 11-1 ATS in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 or less turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.  KANSAS is 19-2 ATS after allowing 45 points or more in the first half last game since 1997. Scott Drew is 2-10 ATS at home against Kansas in his career at Baylor, including 0-5 as the favorite.

Play on Kansas to cover 

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The Sharks lost 5-3 last time out to the Arizona Coyotes and will now be out to play a better brand of defensive hockey in a bounce back situation. The same holds true for the St.Louis Blues who were smashed by a 8-0 count last time out vs Colorado. SAN JOSE is 15-1 UNDER   after allowing 5 goals or more over the last 2 seasons. Another interesting anomaly has  the Under going  10-1 in Blues last 11 Monday tilts.

Play UNDER 

Yes, both these sides can light it up , but according to my Totals projection , the number should be closer to 234 , so with a full possession plus avaialble Im recommedning we take an under stance on a public line. 

Under is 4-0 in Bucks last 4 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 4-0 in Bucks last 4 games as a favorite.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - after scoring 110 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 110 points or more 4 straight games are 70-32 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BROOKLYN) - after scoring 110 points or more 3 straight games against opponent after scoring 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 43-19 UNDER  L/24 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

HC Popovich has as way of having his teams ready to play top teir opponents, and tonight Im betting the Spurs will primed for the road win vs Portland.

Popovich is 267-221 ATS (+23.9 Units) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) as the coach of SAN ANTONIO.

Stotts is 69-92 ATS  against Southwest division opponents as the coach of PORTLAND

PORTLAND is 8-18 ATS in home games versus good passing teams, averaging 23 or more assists/game over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Road teams (SAN ANTONIO) - off a win against a division rival, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 68-34 ATS L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on San Antonio to cover 

Hawks despite of some star talent in their lineup are not a cohesive team, and should not garner this much respect not even against the struggling Timberwolves. Note: Hawks are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite.  Hawks are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 home games and  are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record and are also just  0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.

NBA Road teams (MINNESOTA) - off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record are 24-4 ATS L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Minnesota to cover 

The Grizzlies have won 4 straight games, but Im betting that with this being their 4th game in less than a week, they will be at a disadvantage vs a Suns side that has the ability to make them work hard here, which makes the young men from Memphis susceptible to a 2nd half meltdown. 

Suns are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games overall and  are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite.Suns are also 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 1 days rest and are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games.

PHOENIX is 15-4 ATS  in road games after scoring 105 points or more 4 straight games over the last 3 seasons.

MEMPHIS is 4-17 ATS  when playing 4 or less games in 10 days over the last 2 seasons.

NBA home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MEMPHIS) - terrible defensive team - allowing 103+ points/game on the season, after a close win by 3 points or less are 39-76 L/24 seasons for a go against 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Phoenix Suns to cover 

Chicago was really struggling having lost 4 straight games before last nights road victory vs the Dallas Mavericks, and are fade material here on tired legs   despite of Houstons changes of late.  The Rockets according to my matchup power rankings  are a viable bet  in this spot.   

Bulls are 9-20 ATS in their last 29 games following a straight up win.Bulls are 9-21-1 ATS in their last 31 Monday games.Bulls are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.

Bulls are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.

NBA  Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CHICAGO) - after going over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games are 3-24 L/5 seasons for a go against 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Houston to cover