Alex Smart

Dodgers RH Walker Buehler (2-0, 5.40 ERA) vs. Cubs LH Cole Hamels (3-0, 2.77)

Dodgers lost last night to the Cubs, but Im betting they bounce back here in this spot and make it 10 wins in 12 games . Buehler had eight strikeouts while limiting Cincinnati to an unearned run and three hits over 6 1/3 innings on Wednesday and gets my support.  Look for a LA offence that  averages a National League-best 5.52 runs per game to buoy their pitcher and deliver the cash to us . 

HAMELS the Phillies starter  is 23-31 against the money line in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) since 1997. (Team's Record)

MLB teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (CHICAGO CUBS) - good offensive team (4.7  or more runs/game) against a below average starter (ERA 5.20 to 5.70)-NL, with a very bad bullpen whose ERA is 5.00 or worse on the season are 20-50 L/22 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the LA Dodgers to win on the ML

ERVIN SANTANA (R) vs. JOHN MEANS (L)

The  struggling  Orioles smashed  the White Sox 9-1 last night and have an edge tonight vs a team that is just as bad as themselves.  "Means is going to make a lot of starts," Orioles manager Brandon Hyde said of the 25-year-old rookie. "It's something we're going to play with because I do like John in the rotation. He's pitching really well and deserves to stay in the rotation." Means pitched well in his last start, permitting one run on four hits in five innings of a 4-0 setback at Boston on April 14.

White Sox are 5-11 in their last 16 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.

White Sox are 4-9 in their last 13 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.

White Sox are 17-42 in their last 59 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.

White Sox are 6-18 in their last 24 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.

White Sox are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.

White Sox are 1-4 in their last 5 during game 3 of a series.

Home team is 7-1 in Fairchilds last 8 games behind home plate vs. ChicagoHome team is 22-6 in Fairchilds last 28 games behind home plate vs. Baltimore.

White Sox are 12-4 in their last 16 games with Fairchild behind home plate.

Play on the Baltimore Orioles to win on the ML

Western Conference Quarterfinals - Best of 7 - Game 7 - Series tied at 3-3

The public is assuming that in a game 7 at home the defending Stanley Cup champion Washington Capitals have an edge. However,, it must be noted the Canes won a 60.3% shot share in this series and a 58% high danger zone edge and have been one the leagues top 5 vs 5 teams in the NHL all season long. I know the Capitals have a game changer in Ovechkin, but the team as a whole just don't look as cohesive as last season, and with no Barry Trottz behind the bench, and key cog TJ Oshie out the Caps are simply just not as dangerous, and susceptible to being upset here by a side that I feel is every bit as good as the Caps. To simply put it there is just enough value for us to pull he trigger .

WASHINGTON is 4-11 ATS in home games when attempting to close out a playoff series since 1996.

Play on the Carolina Canes to win on the ML

Western Conference - Round 1 - Best of 7 - Game 5 - HOU Leads 3-1

Harden and the Houston Rockets are not an easy team to play against, but Utah as time has gone in this series, look to be catching on to ways to slow this behemoth side down.  In game 3 they were the better team , and they still lost, but in game 4 they dominated and won . In the L/2 meetings of this series the Rockets have been held to a 35.2 % FG conversion rate, and  in game 4  the Rockets were held  to a 97.8 offensive rating as the Jazz owned the Rockets in the paint  while allowing them to convert just 47.6% around the rim. Here in game 5, I don't think the Jazz can do as much damage as last time, but their toughness and resiliency make them a viable side investment option at this number The public loves the Rockets and with all the money coming in on them you think the line would go the other way, but the books have chopped a half point off the opener knowing that contrarian market moves have been  coming in this tilt. I like our  edge here, and recommend we take the points with a side fighting for its play off lives.

D'Antoni is 18-35 ATS  in home games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game - 2nd half of the season in all games he has coached since 1996. 

Play on Utah Jazz to cover

MERRILL KELLY (R) vs. JORDAN LYLES (R)

LYLES the Pirates starter is 13-41 against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997. (Team's Record) LYLES is 2-4 when starting against ARIZONA with an ERA of 6.80 and a WHIP of 1.762. The DBacks  have faired well here in Pittsburgh over the last few seasons winning 7 of their 8 games, and get my support again on a value line.

 ARIZONA is 30-17  against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 2 seasons

ARIZONA is 24-13 against the money line in road games vs. a team with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.20 or worse over the last 2 seasons. 

MLB   favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (PITTSBURGH) - poor hitting team (AVG .250 or less) against an average starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 to 5.20) -NL, starting a pitcher who gave up 1 or less earned runs in his last 2 outings are  12-35 L/5 seasons for a go against 68% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Arizona to win on the ML