Alex Smart

Baltimores starter KREMER is 6-1 against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season. (Team's Record) KREMER is 11-1  against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season. (Team's Record)

Jays starter Jose Berrios (11-7, 5.37 ERA), is on a  two-game personal losing streak, and in his current form is fade material. 

The Blue Jays after a big weekend series and sweep against the BoSox this past weekend Im now betting on an emotional letdown scenario to give us an edge taking a viable home underdog in this spot. 

TORONTO is 3-8  against the money line off 2 straight home wins against division rivals over the last 2 seasons.

MLB team (TORONTO) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.20 to 5.70 on the season (AL), playing on Monday are just 14-30 L/5 seasons for a 68% go against conversion rate for bettors.

MLB favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (TORONTO) - hot hitting team - batting .305 or better over their last 5 games, with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 2.00 the last 5 games are 25-38 L/5 seasons for a go against 60% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Baltimore Orioles to win 

NY Mets starter CARRASCO is 14-3 OVER  vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 9.8 rpg scored. CARRASCO is 13-4 OVER  in night games this season. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 10.7 rpg. CARRASCO is 23-11 OVER  as a favorite of -110 or higher over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 10.7 rpg. Over is 4-1-1 in Nationals last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.

Over is 4-1 in Mets last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30 like Abbott. 

Washington is allowing opposition offenses 5.7 rpg in night tilts and against division sides they have allowed 5.6 rpg. The Nats have alos allowed 5.1 rpg in their L/7 trips to the diamonds and Im betting a frustrated NY Mets team tees off on them tonight and puts some extra runs on the board which will help eclipse this total.

Over is 5-0 in Mets last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.Over is 5-0 in Mets last 5 during game 1 of a series.Over is 4-0 in Mets last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

NY METS are 20-10 OVER  vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game in the second half of the season this season with a combined average of 9.4 rpg scored. 

MLB teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (NY METS) - after being swept in a 3 game series by a division rival, a good team (54% to 62%) playing a team with a losing record are 30-13 OVER L/25 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Over is 5-2-1 in the last 8 meetings in New York.

Play OVER 

The Rays (86-73)  have dominated the Bosox this season, winning 12 of this season's first 16 head-to-head meetings with Boston. Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here today. both sides has struggle of late, but TB gets the nod in this spot play. Rays are also 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.

TAMPA BAY is 9-0  against the money line after scoring and allowing 3 runs or less last 2 games this season.

BOSTON is 3-25  against the money line when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) in the second half of the season this season.BOSTON is 19-44  against the money line vs. good fielding teams - averaging 0.6 or ,less errors/game in the second half of the season this season. BOSTON is 8-21 against the money line after batting .225 or worse over a 5 game span this season.

MLB Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (BOSTON) - after being swept on the road in a 3 game series by a division rival, with a winning percentage of between 46-49% on the season are 7-29 L/25 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Tampa Bay to win