Alex Smart

After a big mid season run Brooklyn has six losses in its last nine games and according to my matchup stats are over matched here vs a side that can easily run with them.The Blazers went into the all star break showing how under rated they are when they dominated the fourth quarter in their 129-107 win over the Warriors at home behind. Damian Lillard scored 29 points. Im betting he will be the key again here tonight in a road victory for the Blazers.PORTLAND is 8-1 ATS  after a blowout win by 15 points or more this season.

Note: Portland owns a 9th ranked  +3.71 SRS compared to Brooklyns 21st ranked -1.22 SRS. ( 

SRS stands for Simple Rating System; a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average. 

Portland is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings with the Nets and has won their L/2 visits to Brooklyn.

NBA Home underdogs (BROOKLYN) - after having covered 3 of their last 4 against the spread, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%) are 12-38 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on Portland to cover 

Two NBA bottom feeders go head to head tonight in Cleveland with the Suns visiting the Cavs.  . The Suns have lost 15 straight games  , while the Cavaliers dropped 23 of their past 27 games. If th Suns lose they will have broken a franchise record, and tonight because of their embarrassing scenario will be extremely primed to get a win.  QUOTE:"Fresh start. We have a stretch of games, very winnable games for us," Suns shooting guard Devin Booker told reporters. "Cleveland, Atlanta, Miami -- so we're about to go out East for the last time and hopefully come out with some big wins." END QUOTE. If there is a game that the Suns can win its this one and and they as a group will be hell bent on getting the victory making them a viable side to back. 

 Cleveland in 19 non conference games this season has seen a averagepoint differential of 14.4 ppg.CLEVELAND is 10-23 ATS  against Pacific division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

NBA Home teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (CLEVELAND) - horrible team - outscored by their opponents by 9+ points/game against opponent after allowing 100 points or more 3 straight games are 12-39 SU l22 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

NBA Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PHOENIX) - off a road loss by 10 points or more, in February games are 25-7 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Phoenix to cover 

Washington has lost the first two meetings between these teams this season, but looked like the better team in their last matchup taking 44 shots on net as compared to the Leafs 37 despite of losing 6-3. Now in revenge mode and out to prove themselves worthy of their Stanley Cup champion designation, Im betting we see them at their best tonight in TO. 

WASHINGTON is 14-4 ATS in road games revenging a loss vs opponent of 2 goals or more over the last 2 seasons.

NHL Road teams against the money line (WASHINGTON) - revenging a road blowout loss versus opponent by 3 goals or more, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team in the second half of the season are 5-0 this season and a long term 37-17 L/5 seasons.

Play on Washington to win on the money line 

My projections have made this total closer to 149.5 -150 this according to my estimates we have value on this offered totals number. Both these teams are lighting it up offensively of late, and nothing Im betting will change tonight.

Coll of Charleston has scored 83 or more points in 4 straight games. William Mary has scored 84 or more points in 3 of their L/4 overall. 

WM & MARY is 8-0 OVER at home when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 180.1 ppg scored.WM & MARY is 9-0 OVER in home games after scoring 80 points or more 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 173.3 ppg scored.

WM & MARY is 12-0 OVER  in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons with. combined average of 175 ppg scored.WM & MARY is 14-2 OVER  in home games versus good ball handling teams - committing 14   or less turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 172.5 ppg scored. 

COLL OF CHARLESTON is 12-3 OVER versus sub par defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 157.6 ppg going on the score board. 

CBB Road teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (COLL OF CHARLESTON) - after 2 or more consecutive overs, in a game involving two good offensive teams (74-78 PPG) after 15+ games are 68-33 L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

This line according to projections is bloated and should be closer to -9 t for the home team thus giving us line value of more than 1 possession , which makes for a viable advantage player proposition. Back on Feb 2 N.Arizona bombed Idaho by DDs, and now the visitors have revenge on board. Im betting they stand tall here, and make a better effort in the rematch and get us the cover. 

 ARIZONA is 2-9 ATS  when the total is 140 to 149.5 this season.

CBB Underdogs of 10 or more points (IDAHO) - after allowing 75 points or more 5 straight games, with just one or fewer starters returning from last season are 55-21 L/22 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

Play on Idaho to cover

Hawaii has revenge on board here tonight for a ugly DD loss as 3-point home favs to Santa Barbara la couple of weeks ago and have responded by winning 3 of their L/4 and will be primed for pay back here vs a side that has lost 3 straight games. UC-SANTA BARBARA is 18-33 ATS L/51 in home games versus good shooting teams - making 45% or more  of their shots after 15+ games .Ganot is 11-3 ATS  in road games in February games as the coach of HAWAII.

HAWAII is 9-2 ATS after playing a home game this season.  UC-SANTA BARBARA is 2-8 ATS  against conference opponents this season. 

CBB team (HAWAII) - revenging a home blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more, with 2 more starters returning from last year than opponent are  101-56 L/22 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Hawaii to cover 

The Sacramento Kings are the type of team that matchup well vs the explosive Dubs, and are very viable underdogs here on the road. Sacramento has covered 4 of the L/5 meetings here in gets the nod again in this spot play. Note: The Kings are 4-0 ATS L/4 with more than 5 days rest. Golden State is 4-14 ATS L/18 after 5 days rest. 

GOLDEN STATE is 9-22 ATS  when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.GOLDEN STATE is 4-13 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points this season.

The Warriors are 1-12 ATS at home with rest after playing as a road favorite facing an opponent averaging more than 30 points from 3s.

The Kings are 12-0 ATS/10-2 SU L/12 on the road with rest off a game as a dog facing an opponent averaging more than 30 points from 3s a game.

Play on the Sacramento Kings to cover 

The Heat base all their successes and failures on their ability to play gritty shutdown defence, and tonight against the explosive Philadelphia 76ers Im expecting more of the same action. With Philadelphia expected to play without the injured Joel Embiid ( knee) Im betting the Sixers ability flow freely in offence will also be hindered. This above combination has a high probability of making for a lower scoring game than the linesmkaers are expecting and thus Im recommending a under wager here . 

The Heat rank third in the league in points per game allowed (105.7 ppg) and 27th in point scored ( 105.1 ppg). MIAMIs L/20  road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average of 203.1 ppg scored.

Brown is 10-1 UNDER  in home games after 2 consecutive division games as the coach of PHILADELPHIA. (This occurred just before the all star break)

The Heat are 0-19  L/19 UNDER as a road dog with rest off a win as a dog facing an opponent getting less than 25 percent or their rebounds on the offensive end with a combined average score 189.9 ppg scored. Non of the 19 games saw more than 213 combined points scored.

The 76er are 0-14 UNDER  off a 10+ win in a road game facing an opponent averaging less than 58 ppg from 2-point range with a combined average of 193.8 ppg scored. None of the 14 games eclipsed this total.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (PHILADELPHIA) - off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival against opponent off a road win by 10 points or more are 36-12 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (MIAMI) - off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog against opponent off a win against a division rival are 35-11 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the  UNDER 

Top seeded Lafayette was dramatically upset in the semifinals of their conference tourney last by UT Arlington, 71-68 after looking like they would be going to the NCAA tournament towards the end of late season. Now with huge revenge on board I expect  a Louisiana  side that is a perfect 8-0 ATS L/8  when seeking revenge for a LTKO conference tourney loss the previous season to get us the cover here today. I know the Mavs are a strong team despite of being on a 2 game losing streak but the Cajuns are battle tested after brutal non conference schedule , that seen them play  Power 5 programs Indiana, Arkansas, Missouri and Texas, plus top-5 ranked Gonzaga.

CBB team (LA-LAFAYETTE) - after being beaten by the spread by 36 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games are 75-27 L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on UL Lafayette to cover