Alex Smart

I have projected a 3 TD win + here for Lafayette. ARKANSAS ST is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after allowing 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 2 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at -28.3 ppg. 

CFB home underdogs (ARKANSAS ST) - with a horrible scoring defense - allowing 35 or more points/game, after 2 straight games where 70 total points or more were scored are 7-27 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors. 

CFB road team vs. the money line (LA LAFAYETTE) - off a home blowout win by 28 points or more, a top-level team ( 80% or more ) playing a terrible team ( 25%) are 25-1 SU with the average ppg diff clicking in at +25.5 points per game. 

Play on UL Lafayette to cover

Calgary will be seeking its first victory. The Flames lost to Edmonton 5-2 in their opener and 3-2 in overtime to Anaheim on Monday. Now well rested and desperate Im betting the Flames to grab the cash tonight. 

Flames are 4-0 in their last 4 Thursday games.Flames are 6-1 in their last 7 games playing on 2 days rest.Flames are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. Eastern Conference. Flames are 11-5 in their last 16 vs. Atlantic. 

Favorite is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.

Flames are 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.

Play on Calgary to win 

The Braves up 3-1 in this series are ready to bring the hammer down today .

Braves starter FRIED is 19-3  against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)FRIED is 27-6 against the money line in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)FRIED is 24-8  against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

The Braves are 5-1 in their last six playoff games and 8-3 in their last 11 road games. 

Play on Atlanta to win

When these teams played last season San Jose  State won by a 34-17 count. Now despite of the Spartans offensive numbers showing. a distinct drop from last season, my own projections estimate they matchup well here vs D allowing 35 ppg on average  and should easily go above their offensive  season averages. Meanwhile, UNLV winless on the season, are desperate for a win and will not be conservative in their approach here today and  will come at the Spartans in aggressive fashion  which  increases the probability of an output that goes over this offered total.  UNLV is 21-9 OVER L/30 vs. poor ball control teams, 28 or less possession minutes/game.UNLV is 20-4 OVERoff a close loss by 7 points or less to a conference rival with a combined average of 65.8 ppg scored.

Over is 6-0 in Rebels last 6 Thursday games.

Over is 4-1 in Spartans last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

CFB teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (UNLV) - off a home loss against a conference rival, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season are 69-35 OVER L/10 seasons for a 66% conversion rate.

Play OVER

Golden State behind super star Curry looked good in their opener vs the LA Lakers, and once again are viable side options in this tilt as home favorites according to my projections. Note: Clippers super star Kawhi Leonard is expected out tonight with continued knee issues. 

What impressed me in the victory vs the  Lakers was the defensive play of Stephen Curry and Jordan Poole they set the tone for the Warriors. They did not shoot the ball all that well, but wow were they tenacious. More of those efforts will make the Dubs a hard team to face this season. 

GOLDEN STATE is 16-6 ATS in a home game where the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +9. 

NBA Home favorites vs. the money line (GOLDEN STATE) - first 6 games of the season, after closing out last season with 8+ spread covers in last 10 games, team that had a winning record last season are 24-2 L/25 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +10.4 ppg. 

Play on Golden State Warriors to cover 

NHL Home Favorites of -200 or less against the money line (WINNIPEG) - off a close loss by 1 goal to a division rival, winless on the season are 40-7 L/24 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.