One of the more intriguing games on the Week 9 NFL schedule features the Washington Redskins hosting the Atlanta Falcons. Game time is set for 1:00 EST on Sunday, November 4, at FedEx Field in Landover, Maryland. Most fans along the east coast can find the game on Fox.
The week opened with the Redskins favored by 2.5 points. However, with early betting favoring the Falcons, Washington is now only a 1-point favorite at home. The over/under for the game is set at 47.5 points. Click here to check out all of this week’s NFL betting odds.
Washington appears to be on the verge of taking full control over the NFC East. The Redskins are currently riding a three-game winning streak, including the last two against division foes. To be fair, all three of those wins have come by a touchdown or less. However, in all three games, they’ve been able to take a lead early and hold on at the end.
At 5-2, a win this week would take the Redskins two full games ahead of the Eagles in the NFC East at the midway point in the season. They still have to play Philadelphia twice, and the Redskins will also play five of their final eight games on the road. But Washington certainly won’t complain about having a two-game cushion at this point in the season.
The Falcons, meanwhile, are still playing catch up in the NFC South. Atlanta has won back-to-back games against the Bucs and Giants prior to last week’s bye. Those two wins essentially saved Atlanta’s season. At 3-4, the Falcons still have a lot of work to do. But they have at least done enough to keep themselves within striking distance of a wild-card spot.
Of course, this is where the rubber meets the road for them. They beat a couple of bad teams to keep themselves in the race. But the Falcons now hit the road for three of their next four games and six of their final nine games. Atlanta will have to win some tough games away from home if they’re going to stay in the playoff hunt. This week’s trip to Washington is a great litmus test to see if the Falcons have a genuine chance to overcome their 1-4 start to the season.
I’m surprised betting has favored the Falcons enough to knock this game down to a 1-point spread. I would probably swallow at least a field goal in Washington’s favor, so for me, this is a no-brainer. I don’t yet trust the Falcons to beat a quality team or win on the road. With this game essentially a PK, I’ll lean heavily toward Washington.
Despite Atlanta’s recent resurgence, the Falcons appear doomed to become one-dimensional offensively in this game. Both Tevin Coleman and Ito Smith are averaging less than four yards per carry on the season. That isn’t likely to change this week against one of the better run defenses in the NFL. The Redskins are barely yielding 80 rushing yards per game. They should have no problem shutting down Atlanta’s ground game, which probably isn’t a recipe for success for the Falcons.
To be fair, leaving it all on Matt Ryan’s shoulders isn’t the end of the world for Atlanta. Ryan and Julio Jones still have a great connection on the field. Calvin Ridley also appears to have shaken off the injury bug and could be poised for a big game coming out of the bye week.
However, the Washington defense is top-10 in the NFL in both sacks and takeaways. They’re well set up to face a prolific passing attack. Keep in mind that the Falcons have lost two offensive linemen to IR this season, so the Redskins have a good chance to put some pressure on Ryan, especially if the Falcons can’t rely on their ground game.
Meanwhile, the Falcons still have a rather troubling defense. They looked better right before their bye, but that was against the Giants. The Atlanta defense is still giving up 4.8 yards per rush, and this week they’ll be facing a team that loves to establish the run. Adrian Peterson has run for at least 97 yards in every game during Washington’s three-game winning streak. In fact, he’s run for over 90 yards in all of the team’s wins this season. If the Falcons can’t stop him, their chances of winning go down dramatically.
It’s also worth mentioning this will be just the third time the Falcons are playing on the road this season. They’ve lost the first two, scoring a total of 29 points in those two games. That may be a small sample, but it does the fit the stereotype of a dome team that isn’t so dynamic offensively when playing outside. If that trend continues, the Redskins won’t have to score that many points in order to secure a win.
In the end, I think we’ll see another strong performance from the Washington defense, keeping the Falcons to a reasonable point total. I also think the Redskins will continue to run the ball, maintaining control of the clock and the game. Washington won’t score enough points to win comfortably, but with only one point to cover, I feel confident in picking the Redskins.