The winless Oakland Raiders travel all the way to the east coast in Week 3 to take on the Miami Dolphins. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 EST on Sunday, September 23, at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida. The game will be available on CBS in local markets.
Looking at this week’s NFL betting odds, the Dolphins are favored by three points at home. That line has come down slightly after Miami opened as 3.5-point favorites. This game also has an over/under of 43.5 points.
The Raiders were painfully close to winning last week, leading almost the entire game on the road against the Broncos. Alas, they gave up the final 13 points of the game and lost on a late field goal. The loss was no doubt demoralizing for Jon Gruden and company, especially after they were blown out at home by the Rams in Week 1.
Miami, meanwhile, is off to a somewhat surprising 2-0 start. The Dolphins endured a marathon game in Week 1 against the Titans but ultimately prevailed. The Dolphins then hit the road last week and knocked off the Jets. Miami was out-gained by over 100 yards in the game, so it wasn’t a particularly dominant outing. However, the Dolphins managed to make their 20-0 halftime lead hold up for an important division win.
With the momentum and confidence that comes with a 2-0 start, the Dolphins will surely want to keep it going, especially since their schedule starts to get tricky after this week. Oakland, meanwhile, has played well for at least a half in their first two games but have nothing to show for it. The Raiders will be desperate to get one in the win column because a 0-3 start could be insurmountable in the AFC West.
For the record, I’m not about to pronounce the Dolphins as one of the NFL’s elite teams. However, they’ve won two games in two weeks, and so I’m confident that they can take care of business against a west coast team playing an early game on the east coast. If the spread with a little bigger I may have second thoughts. But I feel good about swallowing three points and leaning toward Miami in this game.
To simplify as much as possible, the Dolphins are 2-0 because they’ve run the ball well and played good defense. There’s not a lot about this team that’s flashy or fancy. But they don’t need much flash in order to beat a team with Oakland’s flaws.
Statistically, Derek Carr is having a fine season. He’s completed over 80% of his passes and is averaging nearly 300 yards per game. However, that hasn’t translated into many points. Oakland’s offense is a lot of dinking and dunking without taking many chances down the field. That’s why tight end Jared Cook is the team’s leading receiver while no wide receiver outside of Amari Cooper has more than five catches through the first two games. Carr has just one touchdown pass on the season, as the Raiders have struggled once they get inside the red zone.
Oakland’s running game hasn’t exactly been an asset either. Marshawn Lynch and Doug Martin both look like backs who are past their prime, combining for a mere 75 yards per game. That kind of productivity isn’t going to cut it against a Miami defense that has looked strong against the run early in the season. The Miami defense has also forced six turnovers over their first two games, so if they force Carr into situations in which he has to look down the field, the Dolphins may be able to create takeaways.
The Oakland defense also isn’t a good matchup for the Miami offense. The Dolphins have run the ball effectively this year, with Kenyan Drake and Frank Gore combining for better than 90 yards per game. That doesn’t even include the yards Ryan Tannehill has been able to pick up running the ball. Meanwhile, the Raiders have been gashed on the ground the past two weeks. Perhaps more importantly, they’ve been unable to generate a consistent pass rush after trading away Khalil Mack.
As long as the Dolphins can continue to run the ball, they won’t have to ask too much of Tannehill. To be fair, the Oakland defense has played well in the 1st half the past two weeks. But without enough support from their offense, they’ll start to break down in the 2nd half. If things unfold in a similar manner this week, Kenny Stills and Albert Wilson will become dangerous targets in the passing game.
While I expect the Raiders to once again put up a fight, I don’t think they’ll be able to stay competitive with the Dolphins over 60 minutes. Miami is too good at running the ball and stopping the run. The Raiders don’t have an answer for a team that can do both of those things well. I expect the Raiders to wear down in the 2nd half for the third week in a row, allowing the Dolphins to get separation and cover the 3-point spread.