In one of the biggest mismatches of the NFL season, the Kansas City Chiefs will host the Arizona Cardinals in Week 10 action. Game time is set for 1:00 EST on Sunday, November 10, at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. Fans in the western half of the country will be able to see the game on Fox.
Not surprisingly, the Chiefs are a hefty 16.5-point favorite at home. The over/under for the game is 46.5 points. Click here to check out a full list of NFL betting odds and game previews for Week 10.
Outside of a 3-point loss in New England a few weeks back, the Chiefs have continued to be a near-unstoppable force and the class of the AFC. Patrick Mahomes continues to be the biggest breakout star of the 2018 season, as he leads the best offense in football on their way to making Kansas City 8-1.
Of course, the Chiefs can’t afford to take their foot off the gas pedal. The Chargers are staying close behind them in the AFC West and the Patriots are looking to take away the top spot in the AFC, so any slip-up could be costly. Kansas City also can’t afford to look ahead to next week’s Monday night showdown with the Rams.
It’s a completely different story in Arizona, where the Cardinals are in the running for the worst team in the league. The Cardinals have just two wins this season, and both have come against the 49ers, another 2-win team.
If things weren’t already bad enough, the Cardinals are facing a nightmare schedule the second half of the season with five of their last eight games on the road. Most of their games are also against teams that are still in the playoff hunt and should be playing with a lot on the line. On the bright side, Arizona had last week off to help regroup and get ready for some challenging games ahead, starting with this week’s trip to Kansas City.
For the record, I got burned on a game with this kind of spread earlier in the year when the Bills inexplicably beat the Vikings. But I’m not afraid to swallow this many points again. These two teams are for all intents and purposes in different leagues. To me, picking the Chiefs to cover the spread in this game is a no-brainer.
For what it’s worth, the Chiefs have only won by more than 16 points once this season. A lot of their wins have been more competitive than people realize. However, they’ve also failed to score at least 30 points just once this season. For a team that’s averaging 36 points per game, it’s fair to say that Kansas City scoring 30 points is the bare minimum of what we can expect on Sunday. Even if that’s the case, the Cardinals would have to score at least 14 points to beat the spread.
Keep in mind that the Cardinals are averaging just under 14 points per game. They’ve actually met or exceeded that mark in five of their eight games. But I’d still consider it a long shot for the Cardinals to both score that many points while also keeping the Chiefs to a mere 30 points. We may see one, but I doubt we’ll see both, which is why I feel good about swallowing the points.
If it weren’t for the Bills, the Cardinals would be receiving a lot more attention for being so atrocious offensively. Josh Rosen entering the starting lineup has only made a modest difference. He’s barely averaging over 200 yards per game since he became the starter. Rosen has also thrown more interceptions than touchdowns, not to mention his three fumbles.
Teams still don’t respect him Rosen, and so David Johnson is still struggling to gain much yardage against 8-man boxes. The Cardinals also have an atrocious offensive line. Even though the Chiefs have struggled to stop the run this year, they should be able to contain Johnson. More importantly, Kansas City has a few quality pass rushers who should keep Rosen under constant pressure, especially since the Cardinals will probably have to throw the ball more times than not.
On the other side of the ball, the Cardinals will also have to deal with Kansas City’s offense. The numbers say that Arizona’s defense is middle of the pack, giving up around 25 points per game. Of course, it’s safe to say that they haven’t seen an offense anywhere close to the Kansas City offense since Week 2 when they lost to the Rams 34-0. Even with an extra week to prepare, the Cardinals will surely be overwhelmed by the talent and speed the Chiefs have on offense. Matching or exceeding their season-high of 45 points isn’t off the table in this game.
Admittedly, there is also a risk when eating this many points. But this game is one of the rare occasions that warrant it. Arizona has given us little evidence that they even belong on the same field as the Chiefs. This won’t be the first time this season the Cardinals have been blown out and it probably won’t be the last. I feel quite confident in Kansas City covering this massive spread.