The Cleveland Browns will begin the post-Hue Jackson era this week when they entertain the Kansas City Chiefs. Kickoff is set for 1:00 EST on Sunday, November 4, at FirstEnergy Stadium in Cleveland. Fans throughout most of the Midwest will be able to find the game on CBS.
Based on the Week 9 NFL odds, the Chiefs are 9-point favorites on the road. That line has increased slightly after Kansas City opened the week favored by 8.5 points. The over/under for the game is set at 51.5 points.
After earning two wins and a tie during the first five weeks of the season, the Browns have looked a lot more like the Browns during their current three-game losing streak. Last week’s 33-18 loss to the Steelers finally prompted the team to part ways with Jackson and install Gregg Williams as the interim head coach.
Of course, the damage may already be done. Cleveland has fallen to 2-5-1 on the season, falling behind the rest of the AFC North and being on the periphery of the wild-card race. Cleveland’s schedule over the second half of the season is also rather unforgiving, so the Browns are going to have to turn things around quickly if they hope to remain relevant.
The Chiefs, of course, are very relevant this season. Kansas City remains the class of the AFC after a close win against the Broncos last week. Other than losing to the Patriots a few weeks ago on a last-minute field goal, few teams have come anywhere close to keeping up with the Chiefs over four quarters.
The key for Kansas City will be staying sharp and focused amidst their sustained success. After a string of difficult games in October, the Chiefs have back-to-back games against two of the weaker teams in the NFL leading up to their Monday night showdown with the Rams in a few weeks. With the Chargers only a game back of Kansas City in the loss column, the Chiefs can’t afford to drop any more games without risking their hold on the AFC West.
The Browns have only lost two games this season by more than a field goal, so they’ve been competitive in most of their games. However, those two games have come in the last three weeks. The Chiefs are also one of those rare teams that are more than capable of covering large spreads on the road. With that in mind, I won’t hesitate to swallow the points and lean toward Kansas City to cover.
The Cleveland offense has officially become a problem. The Browns saw an initial boost when Baker Mayfield took over as the starting quarterback, but that didn’t last long. Cleveland is averaging less than 17 points per game over their last four games. Mayfield’s productivity has taken a sharp drop during that span. With Josh Gordon and Carlos Hyde being traded and Rashard Higgins hurt, the Browns have become somewhat limited offensively. That’s a problem since opposing teams know they have to score in large volumes to keep pace with the Chiefs.
Meanwhile, the Kansas City defense is quietly showing signs of improvement. To be fair, the Chiefs remain vulnerable against good running teams, which explains last week’s close game. However, holding the Bengals to just 10 points a couple weeks ago was a big step in the right direction. Also, other than the Patriots, the Chiefs have held teams to 23 points or less in their last five games. Based on the explosiveness of the Kansas City offense, the Chiefs are going to have a chance to win by double digits most weeks if their defense can keep limiting teams to a similar point total.
Even if the Chiefs have some weaknesses on defense, I’m not sure the Browns are the ideal team to expose those weaknesses. Nick Chubb has been good but not great since taking over as the starting running back. The Cleveland offensive line has also struggled in recent weeks, which is part of the reason why Mayfield’s passing numbers have declined. If nothing else, the Chiefs have some capable pass rushers who can keep the Browns from sustaining drives and matching the Kansas City offense.
In recent weeks, we’ve also seen the Cleveland defense showcase some weaknesses. Other than one strong performance against the Ravens, the Browns are giving up over 35 points per game since Week 4. They’ve given up over 400 yards of offense in five straight games, which isn’t the sign of a team that’s going to be able to slow down Pat Mahomes and the Kansas City offense.
A few weeks ago, I may have given the Browns the benefit of the doubt at home. But it’s safe to say that’s no longer the case amidst their losing streak. A coaching change isn’t going to magically fix things in one week, especially against a Kansas City team that has looked borderline unstoppable at times. Even with nine points to cover, I’ll take my chances with the Chiefs.