NFL Game Odds & Free ATS Pick: Seahawks vs Saints

The Seattle Seahawks will try to keep their perfect record intact as they play host to the New Orleans Saints in Week 3. The fun gets started at 4:25 EST on Sunday, September 22 at CenturyLink Field in Seattle. A majority of the country will be able to watch the game on CBS.

The Seahawks are currently listed as 4-point favorites at home with an over/under of 44.5 points. Be sure to check out a full list of the Week 3 NFL odds.

Seahawks vs Saints Vegas Game Preview & Betting Odds

For the Saints, this game begins a difficult stretch of games that they’ll have to survive without Drew Brees. The veteran quarterback hurt his thumb early in last week’s loss to the Rams and will be sidelined for several weeks. Without Brees for most of the game, the New Orleans offense managed just three field goals in a 27-9 loss in Los Angeles. That loss combined with the injury Brees made Week 1’s comeback win over the Texans all the more important for the Saints, who narrowly avoided another 0-2 start.

To add insult to injury, the Saints have a tough schedule ahead of them. It starts with games against the Seahawks and Cowboys the next two weeks. New Orleans also has road games against the Jaguars and Bears between now and the end of October. Those are all games that Brees is likely to miss. But the Saints will have to find a way to stay afloat until the future Hall of Famer is able to return.

Meanwhile, the Seahawks are one of the teams to survive the first two weeks of the season 2-0. Of course, survive is the keyword in that sentence. Seattle’s two wins have come by a combined three points. First, there was a back-and-forth game with the Bengals that Seattle pulled out 21-20. Last week, the Seahawks had to hang on at the end of a 28-26 win in Pittsburgh.

It’s a good thing the Seahawks won both games because two other teams in the NFC West have also started the season 2-0. Even early in the season, there is pressure on Seattle to keep winning so that they can keep pace with the Rams and 49ers. The Seahawks also have a showdown with the Rams set for Week 5, a game that could potentially feature two undefeated teams, but only if the Seahawks can hold serve against the Saints this weekend.

Free NFL Pick Against the Spread: Seahawks -4

I’ll be honest, this almost feels like a trap game. With Brees going out, Sean Payton must have something up his sleeve, right? But I’m going to try not to overthink it. The Saints are in a tough spot with Brees getting hurt, and a trip to Seattle is the last thing they need right now. The Seahawks are good enough to take advantage of that. Despite a couple of close wins, I think they’ll be able to cover the 4-point spread.

Of course, Payton is likely to throw a curveball at Seattle by not naming a starting quarterback. The assumption is that Teddy Bridgewater will get the start, but the Saints will surely use Taysom Hill as well. Assessing Bridgewater is tricky because we know he’s talented and a capable NFL quarterback. However, he hasn’t seen extended action since 2015. He also wasn’t all that sharp last week after Brees left the game, although it’s a bit unfair to judge him based on that.

Meanwhile, it’s even more difficult to know what to expect from Hill. The Saints have used him the past couple of seasons, but only in small doses and rarely as a passer. I’ll admit the trickery of using both quarterbacks could throw Pete Carroll and the Seattle defense for a loop. However, without Brees, it’s a certainty that the Saints will have to run the ball more than usual, relying on Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray. While those two can be productive backs, it does make the New Orleans offense a little more predictable.

On the other side of the ball, I have some concerns about the New Orleans defense. They haven’t been great at stopping the run this season and they’re likely to get a healthy dose of the run from the Seahawks. Seattle isn’t the most dynamic rushing team in the league. But they aren’t going to stop trying to run the ball. They will continue pound the ball on the ground with Chris Carson and Rashad Penny.

To be fair, the Seattle offensive line has been a serious weakness early in the season. Russell Wilson has already been sacked eight times through two games. The Saints, meanwhile, already have nine sacks on the season. That’s my biggest concern for the Seahawks in this game. On the other hand, the New Orleans pass defense has given up a lot of big plays. Seattle has two legitimate deep threats in Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf, so the Saints have a lot of questions to answer as well.

In the end, taking Seattle to cover at home is the safe pick. I wouldn’t completely discount Payton having a plan for his two backup quarterbacks that gives the Saints a chance. But the most likely outcome with Brees sitting out is a comfortable win for the Seahawks. 

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