MLB Player Futures: Odds to Win the NL MVP

The National League MVP Award is given to the best player from that league in any given year.  Giancarlo Stanton won the award last season.  He has since been traded to the Yankees and is listed with the 4th-best odds to win the AL MVP this season.  The odds-on favorite this year is the Nationals’ Bryce Harper, followed by the Cubs’ Kris Bryant, and the Rockies’ Nolan Arenado.  Harper won the 2015 NL MVP, while Bryant won the Award in 2016.

Below you will find the latest odds to win the NL MVP along with each player’s OPS (on-base % + slugging %) and WAR (wins above replacement) from last season.  WAR represents an estimate on how many wins a player adds to their team above an average MLB player.  The final column shows the implied probability that the player will win the award based on the current market odds.

Updated Odds to Win 2018 National League MVP Award

Player 2017 OPS Team 2017 WAR Odds Change NL MVP
Bryce Harper 1.008 Nationals 4.8 +110 New 23.73%
Kris Bryant 0.946 Cubs 6.7 +300 New 12.46%
Nolan Arenado 0.959 Rockies 5.6 +425 New 9.49%
Paul Goldschmidt 0.967 Diamondbacks 5.3 +600 New 7.12%
Cody Bellinger 0.933 Dodgers 4 +800 New 5.54%
Joey Votto 1.032 Reds 6.6 +800 New 5.54%
Anthony Rizzo 0.899 Cubs 4 +900 New 4.98%
Trea Turner 0.789 Nationals 3 +1200 New 3.83%
Corey Seager 0.854 Dodgers 5.7 +1500 New 3.11%
Freddie Freeman 0.989 Braves 4.5 +2000 New 2.37%
Charlie Blackmon 1.000 Rockies 6.5 +2000 New 2.37%
Clayton Kershaw Pitcher Dodgers 4.6 +2500 New 1.92%
Max Scherzer Pitcher Nationals 6 +2500 New 1.92%
Yoenis Cespedes 0.892 Mets 1.6 +3000 New 1.61%
Anthony Rendon 0.936 Nationals 6.9 +3000 New 1.61%
Marcell Ozuna 0.924 Cardinals 4.8 +3000 New 1.61%
Eric Hosmer 0.883 Royals 4.1 +4000 New 1.22%
Rhys Hoskins 1.014 Phillies 2.2 +6000 New 0.82%
Kyle Schwarber 0.782 Cubs 1.5 +6000 New 0.82%
Daniel Murphy 0.927 Nationals 4.3 +8000 New 0.62%
Jake Lamb 0.844 Diamondbacks 2.5 +8000 New 0.62%
Evan Longoria 0.737 Rays 2.5 +10000 New 0.49%
Jay Bruce 0.832 Mets 2.7 +10000 New 0.49%
Willson Contreras 0.855 Cubs 3.2 +10000 New 0.49%
Wil Myers 0.792 Padres 0.9 +10000 New 0.49%
Buster Posey 0.862 Giants 4.3 +10000 New 0.49%
Yasiel Puig 0.833 Dodgers 2.9 +10000 New 0.49%
Andrew McCutchen 0.849 Giants 3.7 +10000 New 0.49%
Christian Yelich 0.808 Brewers 4.5 +17500 New 0.28%
Carlos Santana 0.818 Phillies 3 +20000 New 0.25%
Josh Bell 0.800 Pirates 0.8 +20000 New 0.25%
Domingo Santana 0.876 Brewers 3.3 +20000 New 0.25%
Ronald Acuna Rookie Braves Rookie +20000 New 0.25%
Ryan Zimmerman 0.931 Nationals 3.3 +20000 New 0.25%
Matt Carpenter 0.835 Cardinals 2.9 +20000 New 0.25%
Chris Taylor 0.850 Dodgers 4.7 +20000 New 0.25%
Adam Duvall 0.781 Reds 1.8 +20000 New 0.25%
Paul DeJong 0.857 Cardinals 3 +30000 New 0.17%
Eugenio Suarez 0.828 Reds 4.1 +30000 New 0.17%
Justin Bour 0.902 Marlins 2.2 +30000 New 0.17%
Trevor Story 0.765 Rockies 1.3 +50000 New 0.10%
Todd Frazier 0.772 Mets 3 +50000 New 0.10%
Starlin Castro 0.792 Yankees 1.9 +50000 New 0.10%
Eric Thames 0.877 Brewers 2.1 +50000 New 0.10%
Brandon Belt 0.824 Giants 2.3 +50000 New 0.10%

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