We’ve looked at a lot of NFL games this week that have a “simplifying” factor – low motivation for the underdog, a prohibitive physical match-up, disparate W/L records, and so on.
Not this time. The Dallas Cowboys and Washington Redskins are each talented teams holding at 3-3, facing off in a rivalry show-down that could be a turning point for one or both of their fortunes in 2017.
The point spread is tight and the O/U is shrinking slightly, indicating that bettors expect a hard-fought contest with a pair of defenses running to the ball on every play.
Who: Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins
When: Sunday, October 29th, 4:25 PM EST
Where: FedExField, Landover, MD
Lines: Dallas (-2) at Washington (+2) / O/U Total: (47.5)
NFL pundits are of 2 minds about this match-up. On one hand, the Cowboys are healthier, and their offense has a knack for playing well in the Red Zone on the road. Washington tends to give up a lot of touchdowns, not field goals, close to their own goal line. Dak Prescott is mature for his young years, and for the time being Ezekiel Elliott can still legally play ball.
Others aren’t counting out the ‘Skins. HC Jay Gruden can order bootlegs and quick throws in the game plan for Kirk Cousins, to help compensate for a banged-up OL. At home, the DEs can get pressure on the pocket.
But not all of the injured Redskins are simply sitting on the bench. Linebacker Mason Foster played for several weeks with a torn labrum in his shoulder and ranted at the coaches and front office in a series of tweets…on Friday night.
Take the Cowboys, and hurry before the spread moves. The controversy and distraction caused by Foster’s unwise move, plus the realization of how disastrous the ‘Skins injuries might be in such an important contest, give Dallas a 60% to 70% chance to win ATS or straight up.