NFL Game Preview & Pick: Browns vs Steelers

The Cleveland Browns will look to win a game for the first time since 2016 when they host the Pittsburgh Steelers to kick off the 2018 season. Game time is set for 1:00 EST on Sunday, September 9 at FirstEnergy Stadium in Cleveland, Ohio. Fans in local markets can watch the game on CBS.

According to the Week 1 odds, the Steelers are 4.5-point road favorites. However, early betting has heavily favored the Browns are Pittsburgh opened as 8-point favorites. This matchup also has an over/under of 46.5 points.

Browns vs Steelers Game Betting Preview & Vegas Odds

The Steelers are no doubt feeling a sense of urgency heading into the 2018 season. The trio of Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, and Le’Veon Bell are approaching the end of their time together, and this could be their last chance to chase a Super Bowl with the current core in place.

Of course, things are not off to a great start with Bell holding out the entire preseason. He still hasn’t reported to the team and isn’t likely to play this week, which may be part of the reason for early betting going in Cleveland’s favor.

The Browns, of course, haven’t won a game since Week 16 of the 2016 season. Despite an excellent preseason record the past couple of seasons, Cleveland has just one win in their last 35 regular-season games.

With that in mind, there is still a surprising amount of optimism surrounding the Browns heading into the season. Cleveland used the offseason to acquire several proven NFL players. They are also loaded with young talent from all of their draft picks the last couple of years, so there is legitimate hope the franchise will start to get things turned around in 2018.

Naturally, this has been a one-sided rivalry between these two AFC North foes in recent years. Pittsburgh has won six in a row against Cleveland and 14 of 16 this decade. Alas, the two meetings between these teams last season were decided by a total of seven points, so the Browns had a chance to win each game.

Free Pro Football Pick Against the Spread: Steelers -4.5

Everyone seems to love the Browns in this game, and while I agree that they’ll be a better team than they’ve been the past couple of years, the Steelers are still the much better team. All the betting in Cleveland’s favor has brought the line down to a place where I’m more than comfortable leaning toward the Steelers to cover.

If you think the Browns looking good during the preseason means they’ll be ready for the start of the regular season, think again. Cleveland went 4-0 last year during the preseason, only to go winless when the games actually counted. There’s no reason to think that Cleveland’s success in exhibition games will translate to the regular season.

That being said, the Browns are in good shape, at least compared to recent years. Tyrod Taylor gives them a legitimate starting quarterback, one who led his team to the playoffs last season. He’s obviously a huge upgrade over some of their past quarterbacks.

However, don’t give Taylor more credit than he deserves; he’s good but not great. Remember, the Bills leaned heavily on LeSean McCoy last season, relying on Taylor more to be a game manager, use his legs when he could, and limit his mistakes as much as possible. That means the Browns need to give Taylor plenty of help.

With their offseason moves, Cleveland has provided some help for Taylor, but not as much as you think. Jarvis Landry is a volume pass catcher but not necessarily an elite playmaker. Josh Gordon is still a little bit of a question mark because of how little he’s played in recent years. Carlos Hyde is also a good but not great running back who’s not at the level of a player like McCoy who shared the backfield with Taylor in Buffalo a year ago.

We also can’t forget that Pittsburgh’s defense should be solid. I’m not sure the Steelers will be elite on that side of the ball. But they have guys in the front-7 who can be disruptive and put pressure on opposing quarterbacks. They should also be good enough on the back end to match up well with Cleveland’s offensive playmakers.

On the other side of the ball, the absence of Bell could be a bit overblown. James Conner didn’t get many opportunities last season, but he’s a former third-round pick who had an outstanding college career, so I suspect he’ll be ready when called upon. On top of that, there’s the little matter of keeping Brown contained for 60 minutes while also trying to keep an eye on Juju Smith-Schuster. Of course, the Browns have also upgraded the talent on their defense. But Pittsburgh’s offense still boasts a lot of talent and an experienced quarterback who knows how to utilize a diverse contingent of playmakers.

All things considered, I think the Browns will give the Steelers a tough game. But I see Cleveland settling for field goals while Pittsburgh is scoring touchdowns. That will create enough of a difference for the Steelers to get the win and cover the spread.

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