First things first – the 49ers at Eagles game this Sunday is a mis-match if there ever was one.
Though San Francisco has looked surprisingly competitive in a few games, they’re still a winless team in 2017, and have not won in their last 10 tries on trips to the east coast. To make matters worse, the visitors are playing with a banged-up offensive line and an unheralded rookie QB.
Or how about matters really worse – their opponents in Philadelphia are flying high. Carson Wentz is athletic, smart and accurate, making his mark as one of the best young signal-callers in the pro game, and the Philly DL is dominant with 18 sacks and a crushing average against the run.
But will the weather put a crimp in things for the favorites? Chilly rain – lots and lots of rain – is expected by game time. Whether it’s the uncertainty of an NFL game played with a wet ball on soggy turf, or other reasons, odds-makers are not giving this contest nearly as wide a point spread as you might think.
Who: San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles
When: Sunday, October 29th, 1 PM EST
Where: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA
Lines: SF (+13) at Philly (-13) / O/U Total: (45)
The time-honored strategy in very wet weather has been to run the football, which of course cuts down on points scored and the chances of a blow-out. But that’s too old-fashioned for the modern NFL. Teams have learned how to run and execute on soaked turf, and pass-catching is almost as efficient despite a few extra drops.
Bettors are beating the bookies to the punch here. The line was originally set around 10 points, probably due to the threat of angry skies and a deluge “throwing a wrench” into odds-makers’ certainty that Philly would prevail. But the point spread has shot to (-13) for the Eagles, since the rain might have another effect on the visitors.
A struggling team has to overcome the psychology of playing in nasty stuff. It’s one thing to get fired up for a comeback win at home – the crowd and friendly confines can inspire even an 0-10 team. But rookie QB C.J. Beathard will be making his first start for San Francisco against a brutal pass-rush. Wentz can improvise and scramble for 1st downs, demoralizing the defense.
In short, the long road trip, physical mismatch and low risk-reward ratio of playing in a monsoon against a terrific team (all to try to go 1-7 instead of 0-8) means that the underdogs’ motivation could go down as the conditions get worse.
This is a no-brainer. Pick Philly to cover (-13) before the point spread gets any wider. If the skies are unexpectedly clear, the Eagles still have at least 6 or 7 chances in 10 to win by 2 touchdowns or more.