In a crucial NFC conference battle, the (3-2) New Orleans Saints head up to Wisconsin to take on the (4-2) Green Bay Packers. The big story coming into this matchup is the injury to Aaron Rodgers and how the Packers will survive not having their star quarterback for the rest of the season. Kickoff inside Lambeau Field is at 1 PM ET.
The Saints are coming off a shootout win over the Detroit Lions where they won 52-38. That’s the highest point total of the season for one team and combined. The Saints offense was on fire and their defense forced 5 turnovers, which led to 2 defensive touchdowns. The Saints defense has been surprisingly good over the last 3 weeks.
In addition to their performance against the Lions, they shut out Miami 2 games ago (20-0) and they shut down the Panthers to just 13 points and 3 turnovers. They’ve given up 16 points per game and have forced 9 turnovers during that span, which has resulted in a 3 game winning streak. With Green Bay’s backup quarterback Hundley playing this week, I see the Saints forcing a few more turnovers and holding the Packers to under 17 points.
Green Bay is in full panic mode after their leader Aaron Rodgers went out with a broken collarbone last week versus Minnesota. Brett Hundley will be tasked to keep the Packers offense rolling along.
The spread opened with Green Bay getting 4.5 points. It currently sits at 4 points. The Over/Under opened at 47.5 total points and it has remained unchanged.
New Orleans has the #7 ranked offense in terms of yards per game and are 4th in the league in scoring at 29 points per game. The Packers give up 22.5 points per game, but over the last 2 weeks, they’ve allowed 29 points per game and I expect them to do that this week against the Saints.
Without Rodgers, the Packers offense won’t be on the field as much. Hundley doesn’t have the magic, strong arm or escapability that Rodgers has, which allows him to extend plays and do things that other NFL quarterbacks can only dream of. So, facing an aggressive Saints defense this week, Hundley will have difficulties with their blitzes and their pressure. I expect Hundley to have 2 turnovers in this game, but show some late-game success that will give Packers fans hope for the season.
Drew Brees comes into this game looking to continue his solid season where he is averaging 264 passing yards per game and 2 passing touchdowns per game. Additionally, he only has 2 picks on the season. Green Bay gives up 221 passing yards per game, but I see them allowing more this week as they will be on the field more throughout the game.
The Packers weakness on defense is their run defense where they give up 119 yards per game. The Saints average 113 rushing yards per game, but put up 193 yards last week against the Lions. They traded Peterson, which allowed the Saints to simplify things with Ingram as the lead back and Kamara as the backup/change of pace back. This worked out really well last week as Ingram rushed for 114 yards and 2 touchdowns. I expect the duo of Ingram and Kamara to have a great game this week as they will combine for over 150 yards and 2 touchdowns on the ground.
The Saints are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games, 17-9 ATS in their last 26 conference games, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against the Packers, and are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games against a team with a winning record at home.
I expect the Saints offense to wear down the Packers defense since they will be on the field a lot. Look for Brees and the Saints offense to put up nearly 400 total yards this game. I think Hundley will struggle against a surging Saints defense and his early turnovers will make the lead insurmountable. New Orleans will win this won 31-16.