For the second week in a row, the NFL will showcase two of its teams to the London faithful as the New Orleans Saints take on the Miami Dolphins in Wembley Stadium. Will the Saints go marching home a winner or will the Dolphins shake off their recent loss and find their running game again? Kickoff is at 9:30 A.M. ET.
The New Orleans Saints (1-2) were able to turn their season around with just one win. Facing the possibility of starting the season at 0-3 meant that their chances to make the playoffs were almost zero. But, with an upset win over their divisional foe, the Carolina Panthers, the Saints were able to get some life back into the team and are setting out to start a winning streak this week.
Miami (1-1) is coming off a miserable divisional loss to the New York Jets. Heading into that game, pundits and fans were declaring that the Jets were the worst team in the NFL. However, after the game, it looks like the Dolphins are the worst team. It was an embarrassing loss that Miami is looking to shake off and put behind them. Can the Dolphins get their running game going against the weak Saints defense and get above .500?
The spread opened as a Pick, but has since gone in favor of the Saints at -3 points. The Over/Under opened at 50 and has gone up slightly to 50.5 total points.
Only in the NFL can one week make a huge difference, but that’s exactly what happened with these two teams. Last week, the Saints were left for dead after starting 0-2 and appearing to have very little chance of beating Carolina on the road. To the surprise of most fans and pundits, the Saints steamrolled the Panthers 34-13. It was an impressive performance for the Saints, especially on the defense as they gave up only 288 total yards, 13 points and forced 3 turnovers. This defensive performance was a far cry from the first two weeks where they gave up 29 points to the Vikings and 36 points to the Patriots.
For the Dolphins, they went into the Jets game favored by a touchdown and came out losing by 2 touchdowns 20-6. Their only score came at the end of the game as time expired. We all know that divisional games are tougher, but the Dolphins performance is definitely something to be worried about if you are a fan of the team. Miami was only able to muster up 225 total yards and had 2 turnovers. The most stunning stat of the game was that Miami only totaled 30 rushing yards as the Jets completely shut down Jay Ajayi.
The Saints defense will look to duplicate New York’s success in limiting Ajayi’s running success. Unfortunately, that might be a tough task as the Saints defense is giving up 126 rushing yards per game. Additionally, they Saints defense is giving up 26 points per game and 452 total yards per game. So, Miami has a chance to get some yards and points in this game. However, are we really confident that Miami can actually do that?
The Dolphins have scored only 12.5 ppg this season and they haven’t looked impressive at all. It appears that the key to stopping this team is by loading up the box, shutting down the run and putting pressure on quarterback Jay Cutler who hasn’t looked great since coming out of retirement.
Based on what I’ve seen this season, I’m going with the Saints in this one. Miami is giving up 290 passing yards per game, which we all know how much New Orleans loves to pass. They’re averaging 289 passing yards per game and 24 points per game. So, I expect Drew Brees to light up the Dolphins secondary, with running backs Ingram and Kamara getting plenty of receptions out of the backfield. Last week, Brees threw for 3 touchdowns and I wouldn’t be surprised if he did it again this week.
I expect Miami to be more competitive in this game and surpass their season average of points per game. However, if the Saints are able to limit Miami’s rushing attack then I don’t see Cutler being able to outduel Brees. Look for a score of 27-16 in favor of the Saints.
The Saints are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games and 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games against Miami. The Saints are 8-1 ATS when coming off a division game and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games during the month of October. Miami is 2-5 ATS when coming off a loss to a divisional opponent.