The New Orleans Saints will try to avoid going 0-2 for the fifth straight year when they host the Cleveland Browns in Week 2. Game time is at 1:00 EST on Sunday, September 16, at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans. The game can be seen on Fox in local markets.
According to this week’s NFL odds, the Saints are favored by 8.5 points at home. That line has increased since New Orleans opened as 8-point favorites. The game also has an over/under of 50 points.
The Saints are trying to bounce back from a somewhat surprising loss to the Bucs last week. After playing from behind for most of the game, New Orleans came storming back in the 4th quarter but still fell short in a 48-40 loss. Aside from two turnovers, the Saints didn’t have any problems offensively. However, giving up over 40 points to a Tampa Bay offense being led by Ryan Fitzpatrick was downright shocking. Obviously, they’ll have to do much better this week if they plan to avoid another 0-2 start.
The Browns, meanwhile, settled for a tie against the Steelers last week. After going 0-16 last season, a tie is certainly a step in the right direction for Cleveland. But that doesn’t mean the Browns should be satisfied. The Steelers tried to give them the game by turning the ball over six times. Cleveland’s inability to take advantage of so many opportunities to win the game in both regulation and overtime has to be disheartening.
In a rather shocking stat, the Browns have actually won four of five head-to-head meetings with the Saints since the franchise returned in 1999. The most recent win was a 26-24 victory for the Browns in 2014, so it’s been a while since these two teams got together. In any event, both teams will be eager to get their first win of the season.
I don’t know what happened to the Saints last week, but I don’t feel comfortable picking them to cover a spread that’s over a touchdown after that performance. I know it’s only the Browns and the Saints are still at home. But Cleveland was at least good on one side of the ball last week, and I’m going to choose to believe that will be enough to beat the spread this week against an untrustworthy Saints team.
For whatever reason, Sean Payton can’t seem to get his team to play well in September. Over the past four seasons, the Saints are just 2-11 straight up in the month of September. If they lose to the Browns, they will be 0-2 for the fifth straight year. Most years, the Saints are able to turn things around. But that’s too much negative history for me to ignore.
Also hard to ignore is how bad the New Orleans defense played last week. I’ll admit that Tampa Bay has some talented receivers, but there’s no excuse for allowing Fitzpatrick to throw for over 400 yards and four touchdowns. It’s not as if the Bucs have a great rushing attack the Saints had to worry about. New Orleans couldn’t even get a sack or turnover against the Bucs, which is even more discouraging after how well the Saints played defensively for most of last season.
Of course, the question is whether Tyrod Taylor and the Cleveland offense can take advantage of such a porous defense. Taylor was dreadful last week, completing just 15 of his 40 passes while also being sacked seven times. In his defense, the weather made throwing the ball difficult. Taylor also had good chemistry with Jarvis Landry, who caught seven balls for 106 yards. The new Cleveland quarterback also ran eight times for 77 yards, making him a far more dangerous runner than the Saints dealt with last week facing Fitzpatrick.
There’s no guarantee, but I’m inclined to think that the Cleveland offense will be much-improved next week. The Steelers are no pushover defensively, especially when there’s a lot of rain and wind involved. Inside a dome, I look for Taylor to bounce back against the Saints. The key, however, will be getting more out of Carlos Hyde and Nick Chubb, who combined for just 83 yards on 25 carries. If the Browns can run the ball effectively, they’ll be able to keep Drew Brees off the field and keep this game close into the 4th quarter.
The Cleveland defense may also have a little more success against Brees and the Saints than Tampa Bay did last week. The Browns had four sacks, three interceptions, and three fumble recoveries against the Steelers last week. Former first overall pick Myles Garrett had two of the sacks, as he looked much better than a year ago. The Bucs only sacked Brees once last week, and if the Browns can do a little better than that, they may be able to slow down the New Orleans offense.
Ultimately, the Saints don’t have enough balance right now. There’s simply too much on Brees’ shoulders right now. Brees may be good enough to get the Saints a win this week. But with the New Orleans defense looking so bad, I have to lean toward the Browns to at least beat the 8.5-point spread.