NFL Betting Preview & Vegas Free Pick: Saints vs Redskins

Week 5 of the NFL season will come to a conclusion Monday night when the New Orleans Saints play host to the Washington Redskins. Kickoff is set for 8:15 EST on Monday, October 8, at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans. The game will be available nationally on ESPN.

If we check this week’s NFL betting odds, the Saints are listed as 6-point favorites at home. However, that line has come down a little after New Orleans began the week as 7-point favorites. The over/under for the game is set at 52.5 points.

Saints vs Redskins Vegas Game Odds & Betting Predictions

Based on the eye test, the Saints may have been one of the least impressive teams during the early weeks of the season. They suffered a surprising loss to the Buccaneers in Week 1 and barely escaped with a win against the Browns in Week 2. The following week, Drew Brees pulled a rabbit out of his hat to lead New Orleans to a 4th quarter comeback and overtime win over the Falcons.

In short, the Saints weren’t that far from starting the season 0-3. However, they survived that early-season malaise and seemed to get back on track with a 33-18 road win against the Giants. The Saints now sit atop the ultra-competitive NFC South at 3-1 and are seeking their fourth straight win on Monday night.

Washington, on the other hand, is just 2-1 on the season after getting a bye in Week 4. The Redskins have convincing wins over the Cardinals and Packers this season, although sandwiched in between was a puzzling home loss to the Colts.

With just three games under their belt, it’s too soon to draw too many conclusions about the Redskins, especially with a new quarterback in Alex Smith running the show. However, Washington’s defense currently ranks second in the NFL, as the Redskins are giving up less than 15 points per game. Of course, that will surely be put to the test on Monday against a team averaging better than 34 points per game.

Free NFL Pick Against the Spread: Redskins +6

Despite three straight wins, I’m still not sold on the Saints. They may be outstanding offensively but their defense has been terrible. Against a team that has been solid defensively and viable offensively, I’m a little uncomfortable swallowing this many points. I’ll take my chances with the Redskins beating the spread and at least keeping this game close on the road.

Through three games, Washington’s offense has looked a lot like many of the offenses Smith has led during his career. They are a little short on explosive plays, but they don’t turn the ball over and they don’t hurt themselves. Washington’s passing game has revolved around tight end Jordan Reed and running back Chris Thompson, so the wide receivers haven’t been that involved. Meanwhile, the seemingly ageless Adrian Peterson has led a productive rushing attack.

Against the New Orleans defense, that kind of offense has a chance to be effective. The week off should have Peterson feeling fresh, and if he can get going, the Redskins will be in good shape. The Redskins would love to see the speedy Paul Richardson make some plays down the field against a vulnerable secondary. However, as long as Washington can run the ball and have Smith make short but efficient throws, the Redskins should have success moving the ball and controlling the clock. The X-factor is whether or not the Redskins can punch it in the end zone or have to settle for field goals.

At this point, keeping Brees off the field may be the best way to stop him. Brees has completed 76% of his passes this year, doing so without throwing an interception. Outside of last week’s game against the Giants, Michael Thomas has been close to unstoppable this season. The same can be said for Alvin Kamara as both a runner and receiver. The New Orleans offense will get even better this week with the return of Mark Ingram to split the carries with Kamara.

That being said, the Redskins may be one of the few teams in the NFL that can slow down the New Orleans offense. Through three games, the Washington defense has yielded just five plays of 20 yards or more. Keeping in mind they’ve faced both Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers, that’s quite impressive. Remember, outside of Thomas, the Saints haven’t gotten much production from their wideouts this year. If Quinton Dunbar and Josh Norman can keep him from making the big play the way the Giants did last week, the Redskins should be in good shape defensively.

With Washington’s defense likely to provide a challenge for the New Orleans offense and the Saints unlikely to get much help from their defense, this figures to be a close game. Keep in mind the Saints are scoring 34 points per game but giving up 30 points per game. This isn’t a team that’s going to win many games comfortably with the way their defense is playing. I like my chances with the Redskins and the points in this game.

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