The Indianapolis Colts will be seeking their third consecutive win this week when they play host to the Oakland Raiders. Game time is set for 1:00 EST on Sunday, September 29 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. Fans in local markets will be able to watch the game on CBS.
This week’s NFL betting odds have the Colts favored by 6.5 points at home. The over/under for the game is set at 45 points.
The Colts seem to be handling the sudden retirement of Andrew Luck better than expected. They suffered a tough overtime loss to the Chargers in Week 1 but have responded with wins over the Titans and Falcons. The road win against Tennessee in Week 2 was particularly impressive, not to mention an important win over a division rival.
Last week’s win over Atlanta kicked off a stretch of the Colts playing four out of five games at home, opening the door for Indy to continue to string a few wins together. Of course, that homestand is interrupted next week by a trip to Kansas City. With the Chiefs on tap for next week, it’s important that the Colts don’t overlook the Raiders.
As for Oakland, that Week 1 home win over the Broncos is beginning to look like an aberration. Nobody will blame the Raiders for losing to the Chiefs 28-10 in Week 2, even at home. However, Jon Gruden’s team didn’t exactly put in a strong performance last week in Minnesota, losing 34-14 after falling behind 21-0 early in the second quarter.
The road ahead doesn’t get any easier for the Raiders. Starting with Sunday’s game against the Colts, three of Oakland’s next four opponents went to the playoffs last year. The only exception is the undefeated Packers. On top of that, three of those four games are on the road. If Gruden is going to get things turned around, he’ll have to do it the hard way, and it’ll have to start this weekend in Indianapolis.
I’m a little wary to eat the points in this game because the Colts have only won close games. On the other hand, both of those wins were against decent teams, and that’s not a term I would use to describe the Raiders right now. Oakland is a bad team from the west coast playing an early game on the east coast. To me, that should translate to a comfortable win for the Colts, so I’ll eat the points.
It’s hard to determine whether the Oakland offense or the Oakland defense is the bigger liability right now. I’m inclined to say the offense, particularly the offensive line. Derek Carr was sacked four times last week and three times the week before. The run blocking wasn’t much better against the Vikings. Despite having solid numbers on the season, Josh Jacobs has just two rushing touchdowns on the season with only one run of 20 or more yards.
For what it’s worth, the Indy defense is one of the worst in the league at defending the run. But that could be the result of a small-sample-size with the Colts facing Austin Ekeler in Week 1 and a running quarterback in Marcus Mariota in Week 2. The Colts kept the Falcons under 100 yards rushing last week, so I think they’ll be fine against the Raiders.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Raiders allowed over 200 yards rushing last week against the Vikings while also failing to register a sack. That’s a huge red flag ahead of their trip to Indy, as the Colts have one of the best offensive lines in football. Marlon Mack is averaging close to five yards per carry and nearly 100 yards per game through the first three weeks of the season. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him have a field day against the Raiders, much like Minnesota’s Dalvin Cook did last week.
Equally important for Indy has been the play of Jacoby Brissett early in the year. Brissett is never going to be Luck, but he’s been one of the more efficient and trustworthy quarterbacks in the league. He’s thrown seven touchdown passes to just one interception in three games. Brissett is also completing over 70% of his passes, even if his passing totals are a little modest.
Admittedly, there is some concern with T.Y. Hilton being listed as questionable to play against the Raiders. But Brissett has received such good support from his offensive line and running game that I think he’ll be fine with or without Hilton. The Colts have a pair of reliable tight ends in Eric Ebron and Jack Doyle, as well as some intriguing young receivers like Paris Campbell and Deon Cain. That should be enough against the Oakland defense.
While I don’t foresee a 20- or 30-point blowout, but the Colts should have no problem covering a 6.5-point spread against the Raiders. The Indy defense created enough trouble against Matt Ryan and the Falcons last week to make me think they’ll get after Carr and hold the Raiders to a low point total. Even if the Colts just hit their average of 23 points, they should cover.