After last week’s stunning upset win, the Buffalo Bills will try to do it again when they visit the Green Bay Packers in Week 4. Game time is set for 1:00 EST on Sunday, September 30, at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin. Fans in a number of markets will be able to watch the game on CBS.
Oddsmakers list the Packers as 10-point favorites at home. That number has come down slightly after Green Bay began the week favored by 10.5 points. The over/under for the game is set at 46 points. Be sure to check out a full list of Week 4 NFL betting odds.
As mentioned, the Bills beat the Vikings last week despite entering the game as 16.5-point underdogs. Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen was efficient as a passer and managed to score two touchdowns with his legs. Meanwhile, the Bills were outstanding defensively, forcing three turnovers and sacking Kirk Cousins four times while nearly pitching a shoutout in the 27-6 win.
Of course, the trick for Allen and the Bills is being able to do it again. Buffalo looked abysmal during the first two weeks of the season, as they were outscored 78-23. That being said, the Bills technically have the same record as the Patriots through three weeks, so the season is far from over. However, they have to prove that last week wasn’t a fluke.
The Packers, meanwhile, sit at 1-1-1 through three weeks following last week’s 31-17 loss to the Redskins. Offensively, Aaron Rodgers and company had a good week but couldn’t finish off drives, in part because the not-so-mobile Rodgers was sacked four times. The Green Bay defense was also shredded on the ground and through the air. The Packers gave up 28 points in the 1st half and couldn’t overcome that deficit in the 2nd half.
If not for the comeback Rodgers led in Week 1 against the Bears, Green Bay could still be winless on the season. Rodgers is still playing with a knee injury that isn’t going to get better if he keeps playing on it. However, the Packers don’t have a lot going for them outside of Rodgers, so it’s still up to him to carry the team as they try to keep pace in the NFC North.
I hate swallowing this many points on behalf of the Packers after the way they’ve played for most of the season. However, this pick is more about the Bills, and one game isn’t going to change my perception of them. Buffalo has a lot of problems that opposing teams can expose. Now that we know the Packers won’t take them lightly, I’ll lean toward Green Bay to win comfortably and cover 10 points.
Despite last week’s win, the problems with Buffalo’s offensive line are too much to ignore. They weren’t magically solved last week and they will continue to plague the team. Through three games, the Bills have allowed their quarterback to be sacked 14 times, which is way too much. Even if Green Bay’s pass rush isn’t particularly impressive, there’s a good chance the Packers will be able to put consistent pressure on Allen and force the young quarterback into making mistakes.
Lost in Allen’s performance last week is the fact that he fumbled the ball three times. The Bills were able to recover all three times, but if they had lost one or two of them, it could have changed the game significantly. We also can’t lose sight of the fact that the Bills have struggled to run the ball all season. Allen is currently the team’s leading rusher with 97 yards through three games. LeSean McCoy is hoping to return from injury after missing last week’s game. But he’s still not going to be fully healthy, and he won’t find it easy to gain yards behind an inept offensive line.
To be fair, Buffalo’s defense played great last week and is far better than the numbers indicate. However, if they don’t get the kind of support from the offense that they received last week, they won’t be able to stop Rodgers for four quarters. It’s important not to forget how helpless the Bills looked on defense the first two weeks of the season and all the points they gave up when the offense stalled.
The Packers have been far from perfect offensively this year. But Rodgers has four quality receiving targets around him. Green Bay’s running game also showed some improvement last week with Aaron Jones returning to the backfield. Even with a gimpy Rodgers, I expect the Packers to have success moving the ball, especially if Buffalo’s offense struggles to win the field position battle.
In the end, I’m not going to jump on the Buffalo bandwagon after one game. That’s not to say I love making this pick because the Packers haven’t played all that well either. But the Bills are still a bad team, and a team with Rodgers at quarterback should be able to beat them comfortably, especially at home.