NFL Betting Preview: Buccaneers vs Bills Odds, Pick and Prediction

Week 7 features a rare matchup as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers travel to Western New York to take on the Buffalo Bills. It’s the first time Tampa has played in Buffalo since 2009. The Bucs are facing uncertainty in this game as star quarterback Jameis Winston is questionable and might not play. The Bills are coming off a bye week and were able to rest up some of their own injured players. Kickoff inside New Era Field is at 1 PM ET.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Buffalo Bills Preview and Betting Lines

Tampa (2-3) is coming off a loss in Arizona where they stormed back after being down 31-6 to start the 4th quarter. Backup quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick came in and led the Bucs on a furious comeback. Unfortunately, they didn’t have enough time to get one more score and win the game. This week, the Bucs aren’t sure which quarterback will play, but you have to believe that Fitzpatrick is itching to stick it to his former team one more time.

The Bills (3-2) are coming off a bye week that they desperately needed as they had multiple starters out with injuries. They might be getting a few back, most notably corner EJ Gaines and receiver Jordan Matthews. Will Buffalo be able to stifle the Bucs offense and break out of their own offensive slump?

The spread opened with the Bills favored by 3. It has remained unchanged, largely due to the uncertainty of Winston playing or not.

NFL Prediction and Free Vegas Spread Pick: Buffalo Bills -3 points

The Buffalo Bills are undefeated at home with a 2-0 record on the season. They have outscored opponents 23.5 ppg to 14 ppg. On the season, the Bills are holding opponents to 14.8 ppg, which is the best in the league. Tampa averages 23 ppg, but they do struggle on the road.

For the season, Tampa is 0-2 on the road and average 25ppg. The big drop off between at home and on the road is that they allow 36 ppg on the road and 16 ppg at home. This translates into a huge opportunity for the Bills to be able to break out of their slump on offense and put up some points. On the season, Buffalo is averaging just 17 ppg and their high scoring mark was 26 at home against Denver. Could we see Buffalo break 30 points this week?

Tampa relies heavily on the pass as they average 309 yards per game compared to the 248 yards per game that Buffalo gives up. Even with Fitzpatrick at QB, you can expect Tampa to continue throwing the ball. They’re the #2 ranked passing offense and they will definitely challenge the Bills secondary who could be in trouble if Gaines doesn’t return this week.

Tampa’s running attack is #30 in the league as they total 82 yards per game, which is 5 yards less than what the #7 ranked Buffalo rush defense allows. So, if Buffalo can shut down Tampa’s run game and contain their passing attack, they have a great chance at winning this game.

Offensively, Buffalo has one of the worst passing attacks in the league with just 182 passing yards per game. However, Tampa gives up 308 passing yards per game so, this is a great chance for Bills QB Tyrod Taylor to have a breakout game.

I expect Bills running back McCoy to have his best game so far as he should break 100 rushing yards and score at least 1 rushing TD this week. McCoy hasn’t had a 100-yard game since Week 1 against the Jets and he also hasn’t scored any TD’s this season.

So, the game comes down to this: Tampa’s 30th ranked defense versus Buffalo’s 31st ranked offense.

Tampa is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games and 3-6 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games.

After a bye week, I expect Buffalo to take full advantage of the rest and prep time to exploit the weak Tampa defense. Buffalo will hit the 30 point mark in this game and their defense, which is the #1 scoring defense in the league, will hold Tampa to below their season average of 23 ppg. I see McCoy having a big game this week and Taylor flashing his athletic abilities. Buffalo wins 30-21 and remains undefeated at home.

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