Free Pick: LSU vs Florida Game Odds, Betting Line & Spread

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The No. 18 Florida Gators host the LSU Tigers in a huge SEC clash on Saturday, October 8th. The Tigers have won each of the last three meetings in this series, including a 35-28 home victory last season.

LSU vs Florida Vegas Odds Preview & Spread

Florida (4-1, 2-1 SEC) is coming off a hard-fought 13-6 win at Vanderbilt last week. With an offense that had trouble moving the ball, it was the defense that bailed them out. They held the Commodores to just 265 total yards while forcing three turnovers.

LSU (3-2, 2-1 SEC) is coming off its best performance of the season in a 42-7 home win over Missouri last week. It was a great start for interim head coach Ed Orgeron, who seems to relish this role dating back to his time at USC.

Kickoff inside Ben Hill Griffin Stadium is set for 12:00 EST Saturday afternoon with ESPN providing the television coverage. The NCAA football lines show LSU as a 3-point favorite at Florida with a total set of 41 points.

Free Pick & Point Spread Prediction: LSU -3

Talk about having new life. The Tigers followed the lead of interim head coach Ed Orgeron into a 42-7 trouncing of Missouri last week. That’s a pretty good Missouri team and one of the most impressive wins of the season in my opinion.

This game was every bit the blowout that the final score showed. LSU outgained Missouri 634 to 265 for the game, or by 369 total yards. Even without Leonard Fournette, the offense racked up 418 rushing yards and 8.0 per carry against what is normally a stout Missouri defense.

LSU is undervalued right now because it has lost twice already. But it could easily be 5-0 instead because the two losses have come by a combined seven points on the road to Auburn and Wisconsin. And they beat Auburn before having their game-winning touchdown on the final play called back.

Orgeron just has a way of getting the most out of his players when serving the interim role. He did the same thing with USC a few years back and arguably should have been given the job instead of Clay Helton. And now he’s getting the most out of LSU.

Florida is one of the most overrated teams in the country. It is just 1-4 ATS this season as it has struggled to put away lesser competition. That was evident last week as the Gators only won 13-6 as 14-point road favorites at Vanderbilt. They were held to just 236 yards of offense against the Commodores and were actually outgained by 29 yards for the game.

The Tigers have owned this series in winning three straight and five of the last six meetings overall. They won 35-28 at home last year over Florida while outgaining the Gators 423 to 326, or by 97 total yards.

As was the case last year, the Florida offense is atrocious. It is putting up just 28.4 points, 407 yards per game and 5.6 per play against opponents that give up 28 points, 420 yards per game and 5.7 per play. With games against UMass, Kentucky, North Texas, Tennessee and Vanderbilt, you would expect better numbers than that.

LSU is way more battle-tested having already played Wisconsin, Mississippi State, Auburn and Missouri. All four of those teams are betting than anyone Florida has faced outside of Tennessee, which the Gators lost 28-38 to in their only defeat of the season.

The Tigers have owned this series in winning three straight and five of the last six meetings overall. They won 35-28 at home last year over Florida while outgaining the Gators 423 to 326, or by 97 total yards.

Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LSU) – after gaining 6.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 42-12 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons. Plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LSU) – excellent rushing team – averaging 5.25 or more rushing yards/carry, after gaining 6.5 or more rushing yards/attempt last game are 25-4 (86.2%) ATS over the last five years.

The Gators are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games. Florida is 1-8 ATS in its last nine home games after allowing 14 points or less last game. The Gators are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 home games after scoring 14 points or less last game.

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