Top Handicapper Jack Jones Expert Sport Picks

Jack's Free Pick Sunday: St. Louis Cardinals -121

The St. Louis Cardinals will be highly motivated to avoid the sweep after losing the first two games of this series to their Interleague rivals in the Kansas City Royals.  The Royals haven't swept the Cardinals at home in 25 years.  

I like St. Louis' chances with Dustin May on the mound, plus the injuries to this poor Kansas City lineup.  May comes in on a 15-inning scoreless streak and he has been dominant for a couple months now.  He has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in 11 of his last 12 starts, including 2 earned runs or fewer in eight of those.  He has posted a 2.54 ERA in his last 12 starts while allowing just 21 earned runs in 74 1/3 innings.  

Both Bobby Witt Jr. and Maikel Garcia sat out their 6-5 win over the Cardinals in Game 2, and both are questionable to return Sunday.  This is a poor Kansas City lineup as it is scoring 4.2 runs per game.  Plus, Stephen Kolek is one of the biggest regression candidates in baseball with some unsustainable numbers and just 34 K's in 50 1/3 innings this season.  Bet the Cardinals Sunday.

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20* MLB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Twins/Diamondbacks OVER 9

The Minnesota Twins are a dead nuts OVER team.  They have gone 50-27-1 OVER in all games this season scoring 4.9 runs per game and allowing 5.2 runs per game.  They have gone 18-5-1 OVER in their last 24 games overall finishing with 9 or more combined runs in 17 of their last 21 games, and 10 or more in 16 of them.

The Arizona Diamondbacks are getting their bats going again scoring a total of 25 runs in their last three games coming in.  That includes their 9-5 win over the Twins in Game 1 of this series as they went for 13 hits.  These teams went for 24 combined runs in Game 2.  It should be another slug fest today given the poor quality of these two starting pitchers.

Michael Paredes will be making just his 3rd start of the season for the Twins.  Jose Cabrera will be making his MLB debut for the Diamondbacks, who are dealing with a ton of injuries to their rotation.  The Twins have one of the worst bullpens in baseball with a 5.30 ERA this season.  The Diamondbacks have a 4.53 ERA and a depleted bullpen right now.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Angels/A's OVER 9

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 9 ticket between the Angels and A's today.  Temps will be approaching 90 with light winds blowing out to center at hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park tonight.  The ball should be flying out for another A's home game.

The A's and their opponents have combined for at least 10 runs in 15 of their last 22 games overall.  The A's have scored at least 4 runs in 12 of their last 13 games while averaging 6.8 runs per game during this stretch.  The A's have a very tired bullpen after playing in so many high-scoring games of late and playing 19 of the last 20 days.  The A's have a 4.94 ERA as a bullpen including a 6.37 ERA at home.

The Angels will be playing for a 10th consecutive day as well.  Their bullpen hasn't been much better with a 4.67 ERA on the season.  So both teams should continue piling on the runs in the later innings.

Reid Detmers does not enjoy facing the A's going 0-2 with a 12.60 ERA and 1.80 WHIP in two career starts against them, allowing 14 earned runs in 10 innings.  Jack Perkins has been a gas can for the A's this season with a 6.15 ERA while allowing 28 earned runs in 41 innings.  Perkins allowed 3 earned runs in 5 innings in his lone career start against the Angels.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Mets/Phillies MLB Sunday Night BAILOUT on OVER 8

The forecast will aid us in cashing this OVER 8 ticket between the Mets and Phillies tonight.  Temps will be in the 80's with 10 MPH winds blowing out to right-center in Philadelphia.  It has been a similar forecast for the first two games of this series which saw 10 and 18 combined runs.  In fact, the OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings between the Mets and Phillies with 10 or more combined runs in all five.

The Phillies scored 15 runs yesterday and are capable of covering this total on their own against David Peterson, who is 3-5 with a 5.91 ERA and 1.63 WHIP this season allowing 42 earned runs in 64 innings.  Peterson has allowed 23 earned runs in 23 2/3 innings in his last five starts for a 8.75 ERA.  He has allowed 8 earned runs and 3 homers in 9 innings in his last two starts against Philadelphia.

The Mets are much healthier and hitting the ball much better as a result.  They should do enough against Zack Wheeler and this Philadelphia bullpen to contribute to this total if need be.  They have scored a total of 18 runs in their last three games coming in.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NL GAME OF THE WEEK on Pittsburgh Pirates -137

The Pittsburgh Pirates will be highly motivated for a victory today to avoid the sweep after dropping the first two games of this series to the Colorado Rockies.  They lost both games by a single run and stranded bases loaded in the 9th inning in both games.  They are extra pissed off heading into Game 3 and looking to take it out on the Rockies.

I like their chances of piling up a ton of runs against one of the worst starters in baseball in Michael Lorenzen.  He is 2-8 with a 7.13 ERA and 1.84 WHIP in 16 games this season allowing 56 earned runs in 70 2/3 innings.  Lorenzen is 1-3 with a 8.44 ERA and 2.13 WHIP in seven starts at Coors Field, allowing 30 earned runs in 32 innings.  Bet the Pirates Sunday.

15* MLB Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Nationals/Rays OVER 8

The Washington Nationals are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 46-28-3 OVER in all games this season scoring 5.4 runs per game and allowing 5.2 runs per game.  The OVER is 7-3 in their last 10 games overall with 8 or more combined runs in eight games, and 9 or more in seven of them.  This total of 8 is too short for a game involving the Nationals.

The Tampa Bay Rays are scoring 4.4 runs per game and allowing 4.3 runs per game this season.  Both teams have terrible bullpens.  The Nationals have a 4.67 ERA this season while the Rays have a 4.55 ERA.  Both bullpens are taxed after two close games to start this series and both were fortunate to stay under the total of 8 finishing with 7 combined runs in each and several opportunities squandered by both offenses.  As an example, these teams combined for 20 hits yesterday.

The Nationals will make this a bullpen game starting with Andrew Alvarez, who is 1-0 with a 3.49 ERA and 1.41 WHIP allowing 11 earned runs and 40 base runners in 28 1/3 innings.  Nick Martinez is one of the biggest regression candidates in baseball with just 50 K's in 83 innings this season for the Rays.  Martinez has allowed 12 earned runs and 3 homers in 16 1/3 innings in his last three starts for a 6.61 ERA during this stretch.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.