Top Handicapper Jack Jones Expert Sport Picks

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Orioles/Tigers UNDER 8

The forecast is going to aid us in cashing this UNDER 8 ticket between the Orioles and Tigers at pitcher-friendly Comerica Park in Detroit.  There will be 10-15 MPH winds blowing in from left, so don't expect many if any homers in this game today.

The Orioles are ice cold at the plate scoring 3 runs or fewer in seven of their last eight games while averaging just 1.9 runs per game during this stretch.  The Tigers have one of the worst offenses in baseball.

Corbin Burnes is one of the best starters in baseball at 13-8 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 29 starts for the Orioles this season.  Burnes has allowed just 3 earned runs in 16 innings in his last three starts coming in.

The Tigers have yet to announce a starter, but even if they make this a bullpen game they have one of the best in baseball.  They haven't been allowing anything of late, including a 1-0 victory over the Orioles yesterday.  It will be more of the same today with heavy winds blowing in from left.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Brewers/Diamondbacks OVER 8.5

The Arizona Diamondbacks are 30-15 in their last 45 games overall while riding the hottest offense in baseball.  They are absolutely raking at the plate right now scoring 201 runs in their last 30 games for an average of 6.7 runs per game.  They are the highest scoring offense in baseball at 5.5 runs per game.

Tobias Myers is one of the biggest regression candidates in baseball here down the stretch.  The rookie has pitched 120 innings this season and I question how well he will handle this workload moving forward.  This will be his toughest test of the season against Arizona.

The Brewers are scoring 4.8 runs per game this season and should get their bats going against Brandon Pfaadt, who is 9-8 with a 4.42 ERA in 28 starts for the Diamondbacks this season.  Pfaadt has really struggled of late, allowing 21 earned runs in 27 1/3 innings in his last five starts coming in.

The OVER is 32-10-1 in Diamondbacks last 43 games overall with 9 or more combined runs in 31 of them.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Central Michigan +19

The Illinois Fighting Illini are in a massive letdown spot.  They stormed the field following their 23-17 upset home win over ranked Kansas last weekend.  This is also a sandwich spot for them with a Friday night road game at Nebraska on deck next week.  I just don't think they'll put their best foot forward given the situation, which is going to make it tough for them to cover this 19-point spread.

We'll 'sell high' on the Fighting Illini following that upset win over Kansas that they probably didn't deserve.  They only managed 271 total yards and 14 first downs, but were +3 in turnovers.  Kansas outgained them by 56 yards and held the Fighting Ilini to just 79 rushing yards in 34 attempts for an average of 2.3 per carry. 

We'll 'buy low' on Central Michigan coming off the most misleading loss of Week 2.  The Chippewas managed to lose 52-16 to Florida International as a 3.5-point road favorite despite outgaining them by 60 yards!  They were -6 in turnovers which was the difference.

This came after a 66-10 beat down of Central Connecticut State as a 32.5-point favorite in Week 1.  Iowa transfer QB Joe Labas threw for 342 yards and 3 touchdowns in that game, but came back to throw 5 INT against FIU.  I think the truth about his talent is somewhere in between, and I'm expecting the Chippewas to put their best foot forward this week getting to play a Big Ten opponent.  

We have already seen the MAC step up against the big boys this season with Northern Illinois upsetting Notre Dame as a 28-point dog and Bowling Green nearly upsetting Penn State as a 35-point dog, and I was on both of those dogs last week.  I'm backing the Chippewas here for many of the same reasons as this is another flat spot for Illinois just like it was for Notre Dame off the Texas A&M win and Penn State off the WVU win the previous week.  Bet Central Michigan Saturday.

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20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on LSU/South Carolina UNDER 50.5

The forecast could help us cash this UNDER 50.5 ticket between LSU and South Carolina on Saturday.  There is a 60% chance of rain and 10 MPH winds in the forecast.  I don't think it will matter given both teams have defenses that are ahead of their offenses thus far.

South Carolina looks like a dead nuts UNDER team.  The Gamecocks managed just 288 total yards in their 23-19 win over Old Dominion in the opener.  They had two drives start inside the Old Dominion 10-yard line due to turnovers too to get their only two touchdowns.

Last week, South Carolina beat Kentucky 31-6 in an absolute slug fest.  The Gamecocks only managed 252 total yards and held the Wildcats to 183 total yards.  They are now allowing just 244 yards per game and 3.6 yards per play through two games.

LSU managed to hold USC to 27 points in the opener on a fast turf.  That's the same USC team that hung 48 points on Utah State last week.  The Tigers lost their Heisman Trophy winner at QB in Jaden Daniels along with all of their top playmakers.   They also lost their offensive coordinator, and now they are a much more defensive-minded team in 2024.

South Carolina ranks 79th in seconds per play going 27.8 seconds in between snaps thus far.  QB LaNorris Sellers is one of the worst Power 4 QB's in the country.  But 8 starters are back on defense including six of their top seven tacklers for defensive-minded Shane Beamer.  But the big change is LSU, which ranks 116th in seconds per play at 30.9 seconds in between snaps.  They have changed from an up-tempo team last season to a ball control team this season.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on App State/ECU OVER 60

East Carolina has switched its offense into an up-tempo, air raid this season.  The Pirates rank 9th in seconds per play and now face a Appalachian State team that also likes to play up-tempo, ranking 30th in seconds per play.  This has the makings of a shootout today folks.

It's safe to say this Appalachian State defense will be the worst unit on the field Saturday.  You could see it coming at the end of last season as the Mountaineers allowed 49 points to Troy in the Sun Belt Championship Game.  Clemson had 56 points by halftime in their 66-20 win last week that saw 86 combined points.  The Tigers racked up 712 total yards on this soft Appalachian State defense.

East Carolina QB Jeff Garcia is making plays but he is also making a lot of mistakes, which could lead to easy points for the Mountaineers.  Garcia is completing 65% of his passes with a 4-to-7 TD/INT ratio with 591 yard and 8.0 per attempt.  No question this ECU offense is explosive and can pretty much name their number on this Appalachian State defense.

The strength of the Mountaineers is their offense and it may be the best unit on the field Saturday.  Senior QB Joey Aguilar returns after completing 63.8% of his passes for 3,757 yards with a 33-to-10 TD/INT ratio last season.  He has each of his top four receivers back as well, so there is some chemistry here.  The Mountaineers have averaged at least 33 points per game in at least seven consecutive seasons.

These teams played in a shootout last season as Appalachian State won 43-28 for 71 combined points.  It will be more of the same in the rematch, especially with the Pirates going to the new up-tempo offense this season.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* Georgia/Kentucky ABC ANNIHILATOR on UNDER 45.5

There is a decent chance of rain Saturday at Kentucky but we're not going to need it to cash this UNDER 45.5 ticket.  These are two of the slowest offenses in the country as Kentucky ranks 129th in seconds per play while Georgia ranks 125th.  Both teams like to slow it to a crawl and rely on defense.

Georgia has allowed a total of 6 points through two games against Clemson and Tennessee Tech.  They allowed 3 points to a Clemson team that just hung 66 on Appalachian State last week.  This Georgia defense may be the best in the country again.

Kentucky hangs its hat on defense every year because they always have a suspect offense.  That is the case again this season.  Kentucky beat Southern Miss 31-0 in the opener.  They managed just 317 total yards and held USM to 131 total yards.  Last week, Kentucky lost 31-6 at home to South Carolina.  The Wildcats managed just 183 total yards of offense while holding the Gamecocks to 252 total yards, but they had a defensive touchdown otherwise it would have been a 24-6 final.

Kentucky starting QB Vandagriff got hurt against South Carolina and may not go this week.  That would leave the QB duties to Wimsatt, the Rutgers transfer who started for them last year but was more of a runner than a passer.  The Wildcats may have to go 'wildcat' with Wimsatt, no pun intended.  There's a very good chance Georgia shuts them out, and I would be surprised if they topped 7 points in this one.

The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings with 17, 21, 22 and 43 combined points in the four games that went under the total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on East Carolina +2.5

East Carolina head coach Mike Houston has been here before.  Not much is expected of the Pirates this season off a 2-10 campaign last year where just 10 starters returned from a team that finished 8-5 and was one of the program's best.

Now Houston is hungry to get back to that level and has 14 starters returning and a great recruiting class coming in.  The Pirates have been mighty impressive in their 2-0 start this season, and this is one of the better home-field advantages in the country in Greenville when this team is good.

It started with a 42-3 win as 31-point favorites over Norfolk State in Week 1.  Then last week the Pirates went on the road and upset Old Dominion 20-14 as 1.5-point dogs.  That's the same Old Dominion team that nearly upset South Carolina on the road in a 23-19 defeat that saw the Gamecocks score both of their touchdowns off ODU turnovers inside their own 10-yard line.  South Carolina went on to beat Kentucky 31-6 on the road last week, making that win over ODU look even more impressive.

It was also a bigger blowout than the 20-14 final would indicate.  ECU outgained ODU 466 to 287, or 179 total yards.  They overcame 4 INT from Jake Garcia.  He will be much more comfortable at home, where he threw for 308 yards and 4 TD against Norfolk State in the opener.

Appalachian State was among the favorites to win the Sun Belt this season, but I'm not buying it with what I've seen them them thus far.  They failed to cover in a 38-10 win over East Tennessee State as 32.5-point favorites in their opener.  And last week they were blasted 66-20 by Clemson as 17-point dogs, which is the same Clemson offense that managed just 3 points against Georgia.

It's safe to say this Appalachian State defense will be the worst unit on the field Saturday.  You could see it coming at the end of last season as the Mountaineers allowed 49 points to Troy in the Sun Belt Championship Game.  Clemson had 56 points by halftime!  They racked up 712 total yards on this soft Appalachian State defense.  Garcia and company can name their number in this one.  Wrong team favored.  Bet East Carolina Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon Line Mistake on Boston College +17

Boston College is loaded with 17 returning starters as new head coach Bill O'Brien steps into a great situation.  O'Brien was born in Boston and meant to be a college head coach.  The key is returning QB Thomas Castellanos, who threw for 2,248 yards and 15 touchdowns last year while also rushing for 1,113 yards and 13 scores.

Boston College nearly upset Florida State in a 31-29 loss as 25-point underdogs last season.  The Eagles outgained the Seminoles 457 to 351, or by 106 total yards and should have won outright.  Castellanos went off for 305 passing yards and 95 rushing yards in the loss.

Castellanos and company got their revenge in a 28-13 road win at Florida State as 16.5-point underdogs.  There was nothing fluky at all about this win as they dominated the point of attack on both offensive and defensive lines.  More impressive yet was the Eagles avoiding the letdown just five days later, beating Duquesne 56-0 as 35.5-point favorites.

Now the Eagles will be ready to prove themselves against a SEC opponent in Missouri.  I think the Tigers are grossly overvalued after blowout wins and covers over a pair of cupcakes in Murray State 51-0 as 50.5-point favorites and Buffalo 38-0 as 32-point favorites.  Their luck runs out in the covering department this week as they take a big step up in class against Boston College.  The Tigers have their SEC opener on deck next week and could be looking ahead as well.

It's time to 'sell high' on the Tigers after going 8-1 ATS in their last nine games dating back to last season.  They are starting to get too much respect from the books.  Boston College is the team flying under the radar right now and will be looking to put their name on the map this week.  Bet Boston College Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Night Line Mistake on UTSA +36

It's a great time to 'buy low' on UTSA and 'sell high' on Texas.  UTSA is 1-1 SU & 0-2 ATS while Texas is 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS.  The Longhorns are coming off a huge 31-12 win at Michigan to prove they are playoff contenders once again.  That makes this a letdown spot for them as they return home to face UTSA.

The Roadrunners are coming off a 49-10 loss at Texas State on the road.  While concerning, I believe Texas State is a serious contender to represent the Group of 5 in the college football playoff.  It wasn't as big of a blowout as the final score as the Roadrunners were outgained by 186 yards.

UTSA was the favorite to win the AAC coming into the season with 14 starters back from a team that went 9-4 last season.  There were some big losses at QB and WR, but the Miners are much better than they have shown thus far.  Plus, Jeff Traylor is one of the best head coaches in the country and won't let his team pack it in.  Of course, it won't be hard to get up to face Texas this week, and they may have been looking ahead to this game.

This line would have been less than 4 touchdowns if it had been played in Week 1.  Instead, we are getting about 10 points of value here on UTSA +36 due to what we have seen thus far from both of these teams.  I know we'll get a big effort from the Roadrunners, and if Texas brings anything less than its 'A-game', it will not cover this inflated number.  Bet UTSA Saturday.

20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on Tulsa +20.5

Oklahoma State is coming off the most misleading win of Week 2 after having another misleading win in Week 1.  These two results have the Cowboys way overvalued, and they are laying way too many points on the road against Tulsa this week as a result.

Oklahoma State is getting a lot of hype heading into the season after finishing 10-4 last season and making it to the Big 12 title game.  But it was all smoke and mirrors for the most part as the Cowboys were actually outgained on the season with a defense that gave up 442 yards per game.  They were outgained by 17 yards per game in Big 12 play alone.

This is a great time to 'sell high' on the Cowboys with the lofty preseason expectations that come with returning 19 starters from that team.  That's especially the case after a misleading 44-20 win over South Dakota State as a 13-point favorite in the opener, which is a SDSU team ranked No. 1 in the FCS.  

The Cowboys only outgained the Jackrabbits 394 to 388, or by 6 total yards.  The Jackrabbits actually outgained them 6.0 to 5.5 yards per play as well.  They held the Cowboys to 3.8 yards per carry on the ground and held 1st-team All-American RB Ollie Gordon to 126 yards on 28 carries.  This game was much closer than the 44-20 final.

Then last week, Oklahoma State beat Arkansas 39-31 (OT) at home despite getting outgained 648 to 385 by the Razorbacks, or by 263 total yards.  No question Arkansas deserved to win that game but was -2 in turnovers and missed a couple field goals.

After using a lot of energy in that OT win, this is now a flat spot for the Cowboys going on the road to face Tulsa.  It is also a sandwich spot with their huge Big 12 opener on deck against Utah next week, which could decide which of those two teams wins the conference.  The Cowboys just want to get out of here with a win and they aren't concerned about margin at all.  They won't be nearly as motivated to beat Tulsa as they were Arkansas, or as they will be against Utah.

It was a rebuilding season in Year 1 last season for head coach Kevin Wilson.  He only had 9 starters back and Tulsa went just 4-8.  But now he has a lot of his players in place and has recruited some very good talent here.  I like what I've seen from the Golden Hurricane thus far in Year 2.

It started with a 62-28 win over Northwestern State in the opener.  And last week the Golden Hurricane gave Arkansas State all they wanted in a 28-24 road loss as 9-point dogs.  That's a very good Arkansas State team under Butch Jones and I think they contend for a Sun Belt title, so that wasn't a bad loss at all.

Redshirt freshman QB Kirk Francis has been impressive, comlpeting 67.2% of his passes with a 5-to-1 TD/INT ratio while averaging 8.6 yards per attempt.  Avant, Jackson and Watkins have combined for over 300 rushing yards as this is a nice three-headed monster in the backfield.  Kamdyn Benjamin was their leading receiver last year and has 11 receptions for 196 yards and two TD thus far through two games.  

They will have success against a Oklahoma State defense that is allowing 518 yards per game through two games, including 4.7 yards per carry and 8.2 yards per attempt through the air.  They will never be out of this game and the back door will be open if we need it, but I don't think we will.  The Golden Hurricane get to play the 'little brother' role here and will simply want it more.  Bet Tulsa Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Colorado/Colorado State UNDER 59

Familiarity favors defense and low-scoring games.  Colorado and Colorado State will be meeting for a 2nd consecutive season after Colorado's thrilling 43-35 (2 OT) win last year.  This was a 21-14 game in the 4th quarter with just 35 combined points.  It was tied at 28-28 at the end of regulation for 56 combined points.  I think the UNDER 59 has some value here in the rematch after going for just 56 at the end of regulation last year.

Colorado State is going to go with a run-heavy approach to try and take advantage of the interior of this Colorado defense.  Their strength is in their secondary.  The Rams are going to try and play a ball control game, which they practiced last week rushing for 224 yards in a 38-17 win over Northern Colorado after getting shut out 52-0 by Texas in the opener.

Colorado is a one-dimensional passing team with a terrible offensive line and zero threat of a rushing attack.  That makes them much easier to stop, and it keeps Shedeur Sanders under pressure all game.  That was the case last week as the Buffaloes rushed for just 16 yards on 22 carries against Nebraska, and Sanders was sacked 6 times in a 28-10 defeat.  Even in a shootout against North Dakota State in their opener it only saw 57 combined points in a 31-26 win by the Buffaloes.  Colorado rushed for 59 yards on 23 carries.

Colorado State has played in 8 consecutive games that saw 55 or fewer combined points dating back to last season, making for an 8-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 59-point total.  They have an underrated defense, and their offense is nowhere near the levels many expected it would be under Jay Norvell.  Five of Colorado's last seven games have seen 57 or fewer combined points as well.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Colorado/Colorado State CBS No-Brainer on Colorado State +7.5

Colorado State gets to host Colorado on campus for the first time since 1996.  This is a massive deal for them, and adding to their motivation is that the Rams want revenge from a brutal 43-35 (2 OT) loss to Colorado last season after blowing an 11-point lead in the final 7 minutes of regulation.

Colorado State outgained Colorado 499 to 418 in that meeting last year.  QB Fowler-Nicolosi completed 34-of-47 passes for 367 yards and 3 TD and 3 INT in the loss, and he is back this season to redeem himself.  1st-Team All-MWC WR Tory Horton had 16 receptions for 133 yards and a score in the defeat, and he is back for revenge as well.

Jay Norvell has 14 starters in all back this season in Year 3, which is where coaches usually make their biggest leaps with their new programs.  The 52-0 loss to Texas in the opener was a setback, but Texas may be the best team in the country after beating Michigan 31-12 on the road last week.

The Rams bounced back with a 38-17 win over Northern Colorado last week.  They got their ground game going with 224 rushing yards and that will be an emphasis this week after watching Colorado get shredded on the ground thus far.

Colorado has two elite players in QB Shedeur Sanders and WR/CB Travis Hunter, but not much else.  Defense is a problem after allowing 34.8 points per game and 453 yards per game last season.  That defense wasn't much better in a 31-26 win over North Dakota State as 11.5-point favorites in the opener.  The Buffaloes allowed 449 total yards to the Bison, who aren't as strong as they normally are in the FCS after losing their head coach to USC and a All-American safety to injury.

Colorado then went on to fall behind 28-0 at halftime to Nebraska last week before the Huskers called off the dogs in the second half.  The Buffaloes managed just 16 rushing yards on 24 carries, and Sanders was sacked 6 times and under duress the entire game behind a shotty Colorado offensive line.  The Buffaloes are terrible up front on offense and on defense, and that is going to be their undoing again this week as well.  

Sanders threw his O-Line under the bus and I question how badly they want to have his back this week.  This team has no business being more than a TD road favorite against a Colorado State team that is going to play the little brother roll and want it more.  This is a game I fully expect the Rams to win outright.  Bet Colorado State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Purdue +11

The Purdue Boilermakers are going to prove to be one of the most underrated teams in the Big Ten this season and I'm very high on them to surprise.  Former Illinois defensive coordinator Ryan Walters is doing big things here after leading one of the best defenses in the country under Bret Bielema.

After having just 10 starters back in a 4-8 campaign in his first season last year, Walters now has 14 starters back in Year 2.  He has recruited some tremendous talent here while hitting the transfer portal hard.

It looks like he has found a gem in former Texas QB Hudson Card, who went 24-of-25 passing for 273 yards and 4 TD in a season-opening 49-0 win over Indiana State as a 35-point favorite.  The Boilermakers had last week off, so they have had two full weeks to get ready for Notre Dame, which puts them at a big rest and preparation advantage.

Notre Dame came into the season getting a lot of hype, but that hype was mainly due to their defense and having one of the softest schedules in the country.  They lived up to the hype with a 23-13 upset win at Texas A&M, but that win was aided by some injuries early in the game to the Aggies' offensive line.

The Fighting Irish came back with the upset of the year and lost outright 16-14 to MAC foe Northern Illinois as a 28-point favorite last week.  That defeat all but eliminates them from playoff contention, and I question how they will get back up off the mat.

I know for certain the Fighting Irish should not be laying 11 points on the road to this upstart Purdue team with the offense they are putting on the field.  The Fighting Irish are starting 5 underclassmen along the offensive line, and it's a big problem breaking in 5 new starters.  Plus one of their starters is already hurt.

Former Duke QB Riley Leonard has only rushed for 79 yards on 23 carries for an average of 3.4 per carry through two games.  He has only thrown for 321 yards with a 0-to-2 TD/INT ratio thus far as well.  He has a banged up left shoulder, and he is an inaccurate passer.  This offense has taken a big step back from where they were a year ago.  

Notre Dame has gone to the wire in two consecutive games and may not have much left in the tank for the Boilermakers, who couldn't be more fresh and prepared for this one.  Bet Purdue Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana -2.5

The Indiana Hoosiers are loaded this season under 1st-year head coach Curt Cignetti.  He led James Madison to a 19-4 record the last two years and he is going to turn around this Indiana program in a hurry.

Cignetti has 21 returning starters when you count all the transfers he brought in with him from James Madison and other schools.  The Hoosiers are off to a fast start beating Florida International 31-7 at home and Western Illinois 77-3 at home as a 45-point favorite.  That's a FIU team that went on to beat Central Michigan 52-16 last week.

QB Kurtis Roarke comes over from Ohio and has been impressive, completing 73.2% of his passes with a 3-to-0 TD/INT ratio.  The backfield is loaded with three RB's that have already topped 100 rushing yards.  The receiving room is loaded with JMU transfer Elijah Sarratt, Texas Tech transfer Myles Price and returnee Omar Cooper Jr., who have combined for 23 receptions for 392 yards and 2 TD.  The defense returns 11 starters and hasn't given up an inch.

So it's a team I'm very high on in Indiana up against a team I am very down on in UCLA, which will turn out to be on the worst Power 4 teams in the country this season.  Head coach Chip Kelly bolted for Ohio State, and a lot of their best players transferred out.  Plus they lost defensive coordinator Lynn to USC.

Former UCLA RB Deshaun Foster doesn't have any previous head coaching experience and steps into a very tough situation.  The Bruins only have 12 starters back and a ton of new faces.  They were far from impressive in their 16-13 win at Hawaii as 13.5-point favorites in their opener.  That's a Hawaii team that was in a 7-point game in the 4th quarter as 40.5-point home favorites against Delaware State the week prior.  They stand little chance of keeping this game competitive against the upstart Hoosiers.  Bet Indiana Saturday.