Top Handicapper Jack Jones Expert Sport Picks

15* Washington/Colorado FS1 ANNIHILATOR on Washington +8 

The Washington Huskies are one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are much better than their 12-8 record would indicate, but they have just been unfortunate in close games this year.  And I expect this game against Colorado to come down to the wire, so getting 8 points is a great value. 

Indeed, Washington is 12-8 with seven of their losses coming by 7 points or fewer.  So they have only been beaten by more than this spread one time in 20 games this season.  KenPom has a luck factor for teams that shows how lucky are unlucky they are to have the record they have.  Well, Washington is 347th out of 353 teams in the luck category.  This is more like a 15-5 team rather than a 12-8 team. 

Colorado is getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers due to its 15-4 record and No. 23 national ranking.  But this is a Colorado team that is fortunate to have that record as they are 66th in the luck department.  And they have been upset by both Oregon State and Northern Iowa at home this year, so they are far from invincible at home. 

Colorado’s best player in Tyler Bey is questionable with a hand injury after sitting out last game against Washington State.  Bey averages 13.1 PPG and leads the team in rebounding at 9.3 RPG while also leading the team in 3-point percentage (47.1%).  Chances are he plays but he’s far from 100% with a hand injury. 

Washington owns Colorado, going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  That includes two upset wins as road underdogs winning 77-70 as 2.5-point dogs and 72-62 as 5-point dogs in its last two trips to Boulder.  Expect more of the same as the Buffaloes struggle with the size and defensive prowess of the Huskies, who give up just 62.7 PPG and 36.9% shooting this season.  Roll with Washington Saturday. 

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Tulane -1.5 

The Tulane Green Wave are one of the most improved teams in the country.  Head coach Ron Hunter did big things at IUPUI and Georgia State in turning around those two programs.  And he’s doing the same in his first season at Tulane thanks to transfers. 

This is a Tulane team that has made me a lot of money this season.  They covered 4 straight recently to open AAC play.  They covered in narrow road losses to Memphis and UConn, while also upsetting Cincinnati as an 8-point home dog and Temple by 16 as a 9-point road dog. 

I think that stretch took its toll on Tulane because the Green Wave have since gone 0-2 SU & 0-2 ATS in their last two games.  They lost at home to UCF and Tulsa.  But now they’ve had a full week to recover as they last play on Saturday, coming in on six days’ rest.  Expect one of their best efforts of the season to try and bounce back from those two losses. 

East Carolina is at a huge scheduling disadvantage.  The Pirates only come in on two days’ rest after losing 64-84 at SMU on Wednesday.  That followed up a 25-point loss at Cincinnati and a 16-point home loss to Tulsa.  Tulane is power rated about 8 points better than ECU according to KenPom, and when you factor in the favorable scheduling spot the Green Wave should be more than 1.5-point favorites here. 

ECU is 2-14 ATS after having lost three of its last four games over the last two seasons.  The Pirates are 1-9 ATS after playing five consecutive games as an underdog over the last two seasons.  ECU is 2-12 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record after 15-plus games over the last two seasons.  The Pirates are 0-7 ATS vs. excellent ball-handling teams who commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game after 15-plus games over the last three years.   

The Green Wave are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games.  Tulane is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than 60%.  The road team is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  Take Tulane Saturday. 

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Oregon State -2.5 

It’s a good time to ‘buy low’ on the Oregon State Beavers, who have lost three in a row both SU & ATS coming in.  That has them highly motivated for a win tonight as they host the USC Trojans. 

USC is coming off a gut-wrenching loss to Oregon in overtime.  I think that’s the kind of loss that beats them twice here.  Especially since the Trojans only have one day to recover from that contest on Thursday plus have the travel.  Oregon State gets to stay at home after facing UCLA Thursday and will be the much fresher, more prepared team. 

The Beavers are 8-2 at home this season.  They won both meetings with USC last year and should be able to handle this USC team that lost by 32 at Washington and by 9 at Oregon in two of its recent road games. 

Oregon State is 13-4 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less over the last three seasons.  The Beavers are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games off an ATS loss.  The home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet Oregon State Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Michigan -3.5 

The Michigan Wolverines are showing great value as a short home favorite Saturday over Illinois.  We are getting the Wolverines at a discount because they have lost three straight coming in both SU and ATS.  That has them highly motivated for a win here Saturday. 

Adding to the motivation is the fact that Michigan wants revenge from a 62-71 loss at Illinois in their first meeting this season.  Well, home-court advantage has been huge for the Wolverines in this series as they are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 home meetings with the Fighting Illini.  The home team is 27-11-1 ATS in the last 39 meetings.  And Michigan has faced the 4th-toughest schedule in the entire country this year so they are battle-tested. 

It’s a good time to ’sell high’ on the Fighting Illini, who have won five straight coming in.  But three of those wins were by 4 points or fewer, including narrow home wins over Rutgers (by 3) and Northwestern (by 4).  And Illinois just lost its first player off the bench in Alan Griffin (8.4 PPG, 4.2 RPG) to a two-game suspension.  Griffin also leads the team in 3-point percentage (39.4%) and FT percentage (89.5%). 

Michigan is 8-1 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite over the last three seasons.  The Wolverines are 15-4 ATS off a loss over the last three years.  Michigan is 18-7-1 ATS in its last 26 home games.  The Fighting Illini are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games following an ATS win.  Roll with Michigan Saturday. 

20* Baylor/Florida ESPN No-Brainer on Florida -2 

This is one of those rare situations where the unranked team in Florida is favored over the ranked team in Baylor.  And it’s not just any ranked team, it’s the No. 1 Baylor Bears.  And I fully agree with Florida being the favorite here. 

You can bet it’s going to be a rowdy atmosphere for the Gators at home Saturday night with the No. 1 team coming to town.  And the Gators have defended their home court to near-perfection.  They are 7-1 at home this season with their only loss coming to Florida State, which is the No. 5 ranked team in the country.  They just beat 16th-ranked Auburn by 22 in their last home game. 

I don’t believe Baylor is the best team in the country.  That ranking clearly went to their head when they were nearly upset by Oklahoma on Monday in a 61-57 win as 11-point home favorites.  They also barely won their previous game against lowly Oklahoma State as they trailed the entire way until the final minutes.  That’s an Oklahoma State team that is 0-6 in Big 12 play. 

Baylor usually has a big rebounding edge against most opponents, but that won’t be the case against Florida.  The Bears average 6 more boards per game than their opponents while the Gators average 5 more boards per game than their foes.  And it’s worth noting Florida (22nd) has played the tougher schedule than Baylor (47th).  The Gators are battle-tested and ready to take down the top-ranked team in the country.  Take Florida Saturday. 

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Nebraska +13 

I love fading the Rutgers Scarlet Knights in this spot.  They just got ranked this week for the first time since the 1978-79 season.  And they are now getting a lot of love from oddsmakers due to that Top 25 ranking. 

I know Rutgers is 13-0 at home this season, but that is being factored into the line way too much.  Also this is an overreaction from Rutgers beating Nebraska 79-62 on the road on January 3rd in their first meeting this season. 

I’ll gladly side with the revenge-minded Huskers, who are improving rapidly under first-year head coach Fred Hoiberg.  The Huskers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  That includes upset wins over Purdue by 14 as 13-point dogs and Iowa by 6 as 8-point dogs.  They just aren’t getting blown out as they have only been beaten by more than 14 points once in their last 10 games overall. 

Nebraska is 10-2 ATS in January road games over the last three seasons.  The Huskers are 13-4 ATS after allowing 80 points or more over the last three seasons.  Rutgers is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 home games after playing a game where both teams scored 80 points or more.  The Scarlet Knights have just two days to prepare while the Huskers have three days to get ready after playing on Tuesday.  Roll with Nebraska Saturday. 

25* MVC GAME OF THE YEAR on Indiana State -2.5 

The Indiana State Sycamores are highly motivated for a win off two straight road losses to Valparaiso and Loyola-Chicago.  And now they will certainly get up for defending MVC champ Bradley today.  I believe the Sycamores are favored for good reason. 

Indiana State is 7-0 at home this season.  That includes a 3-0 home record in conference play with all three wins coming by 12 points or more and by an average of 16.0 points per game.  The Sycamores are one of the most underrated teams in the MVC this season as they’re a veteran squad that returned four starters. 

Bradley comes in overvalued after winning four of their last five and going 7-1 ATS in their last eight games.  But they could be without their top two scorers Saturday.  Elijah Childs (14.2 PPG) is for sure out, while Darrell Brown (14.2 PPG) is questionable with a quad injury after sitting out last game. 

Bradley is just 2-4 SU in true road games this season.  They lost to a very bad St. Joe’s team as 5-point road favorites, lost by 15 at Memphis, lost by 16 at Miami Ohio as 2-point favorites and also lost at Northern Iowa.  Their only two road wins came against poor Missouri State and Evansville teams. 

Indiana State has won five of its last seven meetings with Bradley.  The Sycamores are 17-5 SU in their last 22 home meetings with Bradley.  The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Indiana State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than 40%.  The Sycamores are 6-0 ATS after scoring 60 points or less over the last two seasons.  Bet Indiana State Saturday. 

15* Lakers/76ers ABC ANNIHILATOR on Los Angeles -4.5 

The Los Angeles Lakers have been the best road team in the NBA this season.  They are 20-4 SU in road games, so I’m not worried at all about laying this short number with them on the road against the Philadelphia 76ers. 

I know the 76ers are great at home, but they just have some injuries right now that aren’t going to allow them to compete with the Lakers.  They are without their best player in Joel Embiid (23.4 PPG, 12.3 RPG) and also are now without their best shooter in Josh Richardson (15.0 PPG), who just suffered a hamstring injury last time out. 

Plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA Lakers) - after beating the spread by 24 or more points in in their last three games against an opponent that went under the total by 54 or more points total in their last 10 games are 42-14 (75%) ATS since 1996. 

The 76ers are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  Philadelphia is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog.  The 76ers are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games playing on two days’ rest.  Los Angeles is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 trips to Philadelphia.  Take the Lakers Saturday. 

20* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Utah Jazz -3.5 

The Utah Jazz are the hottest team in the NBA.  They have gone 18-2 SU in their last 20 games overall and 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games overall.  We are getting the Jazz real cheap as only 3.5-point home favorites over the Dallas Mavericks tonight.  Especially since they’re rested on two days’ rest having last played on Wednesday. 

The Mavericks are getting some respect from the books because they are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  But they lost to the best team they faced in the Clippers and the other five wins came against the Blazers (twice), Kings, Warriors and 76ers (at home). 

The Mavericks just lost a key player in Dwight Powell to a season-ending Achilles injury, while the Jazz are fully healthy right now.  The Jazz are 6-1 SU in their last seven meetings with the Mavericks.  The Jazz are 6-0 SU in their last six home meetings with Dallas winning by an average of 12.0 points per game. 

The Mavericks are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS win.  The Jazz are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games.  Utah is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game.  Bet the Jazz Saturday.