Top Handicapper Jack Jones Expert Sport Picks

15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Grand Canyon +11

Nevada (9-0) is getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers after its unbeaten start and No. 6 ranking.  Now the Wolf Pack are being asked to lay double-digits in what is essentially a home game for Grand Canyon at Talking Stick Resort in Phoenix. 

Dan Majerle is doing big things at Grand Canyon, and it helps that they have some of the best facilities and weather in the country, which has helped him get recruits.  Grand Canyon is 5-3 this season with all three losses coming by 9 points or less, and they were all on the road to the likes of Utah, Seton Hall and South Dakota State. 

But what I really like about this game is the fact that Grand Canyon is rested with seven days in between games having last played on December 1st.  Nevada just played on Friday, December 7th in a hard-fought 72-66 win over Arizona State in Los Angeles.  So the Wolf Pack only have one day to prepare for Grand Canyon.   

That’s a huge scheduling advantage for the Antelopes here.  The Antelopes are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Wolf Pack are simply getting too much respect from oddsmakers, and that will show tonight as the Antelopes give them a run for their money.  Take Grand Canyon Sunday. 

20* Purdue/Texas ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Texas +2.5

It’s safe to say the Texas Longhorns will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They opened 5-0 with wins against Arkansas and North Carolina, but not they’ve lost three straight to Michigan State, Redford and VCU.  They want to get back in the win column here tonight in a bad way. 

Purdue is coming off a 62-60 home win as 9-point favorites over Maryland.  Now they step out of conference here.  They only have two days’ rest after playing on Thursday, while Texas has three days’ rest after last playing on Wednesday. 

While Texas has four returning starters, Purdue has just one returning starter and has been grossly overvalued this season.  The Boilermakers also have three losses this year, and they are 0-2 in true road games losing to Michigan and Florida State by an average of 10 points per game. 

The Boilermakers are 7-17-1 ATS in their last 25 games overall.  Purdue is 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Boilermakers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games.  Texas is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 games as a home dog of 3 points or less or PK.  Bet Texas Sunday. 

15* Bucks/Raptors NBA TV ANNIHILATOR on Toronto -5 

The Raptors are coming off a bad overtime loss to the Nets last time out.  That should have them refocused and ready to go at home tonight against the Milwaukee Bucks.  They’ll also want revenge from a 109-124 loss at Milwaukee in their first meeting this season. 

No team is as equipped to stop Giannis and the Bucks quite like Toronto.  Kawhi Leonard is arguably the best defender in the NBA, and he’ll relish the challenge to top Giannis tonight.  I expect a big effort from the Raptors here. 

The Bucks have done most of their damage at home thanks to a home-heavy schedule with 15 home games compared to just 9 road games.  And the Bucks are just 4-5 SU & 3-6 ATS on the road this season. 

Toronto is 14-3 ATS after failing to cover four of their last five against the spread over the last three seasons.  The Bucks are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Milwaukee is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 road games.  Roll with the Raptors Sunday. 

15* NBA Sunday Night Line Mistake on San Antonio Spurs +4 

The revenge tour of the San Antonio Spurs continues tonight.  They avenged a 113-121 road loss to the Lakers on Wednesday with a 133-120 home win over the Lakers on Friday.  And now they’ll be looking to avenge their 105-139 road loss to the Jazz on Tuesday when they get to host Utah this time around. 

San Antonio has gone 71-22 SU in its last 93 home meetings with Utah.  And home-court advantage has been huge in this series recently as the home team is 6-1 SU in the last seven meetings.  I don’t think the Spurs should be home dogs tonight, let alone 4-point home dogs. 

The Spurs are a perfect 7-0 ATS when revenging a road loss against an opponent this season.  San Antonio is also a perfect 7-0 ATS when revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 points or more this season.  The Spurs are 17-7 ATS in their last 24 home games, including 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Take the Spurs Sunday. 

Jack’s Free Pick Sunday: Oakland Raiders +10 

I think there’s value on the Oakland Raiders as double-digit home underdogs this week against the Pittsburgh Steelers.  Contrary to popular belief, the Raiders have not quit, and that has shown up in a big way the last three weeks. 

Three weeks ago, the Raiders went on the road and upset the Cardinals 23-21 as 4.5-point favorites.  And they deserved to cover as 13-point dogs at Baltimore, but lost 17-34 only after two non-offensive touchdowns by the Ravens with one on defense and one on special teams.  So that was a 20-17 game when you take away those two gift touchdowns.  And then last week the Raiders only lost 33-40 at home to the Chiefs as 14-point underdogs. 

The Steelers are reeling right now with back-to-back losses to the Broncos and Chargers.  And now they’ve become one-dimensional with the injury to James Connor, who has rushed for 909 yards with 467 receiving yards on the season, accounting for 1,376 yards from scrimmage.  The drop-off to the backups are huge, especially in the passing game.  Jaylen Samuels averages just 2.6 yards per carry, while Steven Ridley averages 3.1 per carry.  These two will split Connors’ workload. 

Big Ben is going to have his hands full this week.  The Steelers now have to throw the ball 40-50 times in this game, and they just aren’t that good when they are one-dimensional.  Even this bad Raiders defense can slow down a one-dimensional offense.  Plus, Big Ben is terrible in this road.  He is 1-9 ATS in his career as a double-digit road favorite.  Also, Big Ben is 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS in his career against the Raiders.  He just hasn’t been able to figure out this team. 

Plays against road teams (Pittsburgh) - off two or more consecutive upset losses as a favorite, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team are 29-8 (78.4%) ATS since 1983.  The Steelers are 7-20-1 ATS in their last 28 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.  Oakland is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet the Raiders Sunday.

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25* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on Buffalo Bills -3 

The Buffalo Bills deserved to blow out the Miami Dolphins last week.  But the fact that they somehow lost that game 17-21 has them undervalued coming into this game.  They failed to cover the spread as closing 3.5 points underdogs, and it was one of the most misleading finals of the season. 

The Bills gained 415 total yards and held the Dolphins to just 175 total yards, outgaining them by 240 yards for the game.  Those stats alone show that the Bills should have won the game.  But Charles Clay dropped what would have been a game-winning touchdown catch late as well.  I think it works out better for us this week that they actually lost though, because now we’re laying only 3 points instead of 4 or more. 

The Jets are getting too much credit for giving the Titans a run for their money last week.  The Jets actually led that game most the way, but eventually lost 22-26, covering as 10-point underdogs.  But they were thoroughly out-statted as well.  The Jets gained just 280 total yards and gave up 403 total yards, getting outgained by 123 yards by the Titans. 

The Jets are now 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  They have been blown out consistently with all six losses by 4 points or more, five losses by 7 points or more, and four losses by 14 points or more.  They have been outscored by 90 points during this losing streak, or by an average of 15 points per game. 

The reason I love this Bills team is because they play defense.  In fact, the Bills rank 2nd in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 294.2 yards per game.  The third place Bears give up 317.9 yards per game, and they only trail the Ravens (281.7) in this category.  They have an elite defense, yet they don’t get credit for it. 

The Bills have played much better on offense when either Josh Allen or Matt Barkley has been under center at quarterback.  In fact, Allen ranks 3rd in the NFL in rushing over the last two weeks, rushing for a combined 234 yards the past two games.  I don’t think he gets enough credit for being the dual-threat he is, completing opening up this offense and making opposing defenses defend the entire field. 

The Jets are a bad team, period.  They get outgained by 75.4 yards per game on the season, while the Bills only get outgained by 8.5 yards per game.  The Jets rank 23rd in total defense, giving up 376.4 yards per game on the season.  New York also ranks 30th in total offense, averaging just 301.0 yards per game on the season. 

Buffalo blew out New York 41-10 on the road as 7-point underdogs in their first meeting this season.  This was every bit the blowout the final score showed and wasn’t misleading at all.  The Bills gained 451 total yards in that game and gave up just 199 yards, outgaining the Jets by 252 total yards in that contest.  The Bills rushed for 212 yards on the Jets, and Matt Barkley played well with 232 passing yards and two touchdowns.  Allen and company should also have plenty of success on this Jets defense once again. 

The Jets are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games off a road cover where they lost straight up as an underdog.  New York is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 road games after allowing 25 points or more in two straight games.  Buffalo is 15-3 ATS in its last 18 home games vs. bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points per game in the second half of the season.  The Jets are 0-5 ATS in their last five vs. AFC East opponents.  The Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last six home meetings with the Jets.  Bet the Bills Sunday. 

15* NFL Sunday Late-Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on San Francisco 49ers +4.5 

With three more turnovers last week against the Seahawks, including a 98-yard INT return TD, the 49ers now have the worst turnover differential (-20) in the NFL.  These teams with horrible turnover differentials are undervalued this late in the year, because there’s a big element of luck in turnovers. 

I have no doubt the 49ers are better than their 2-10 record would suggest.  And a quick look at the numbers shows that this should at least be a 6-6 team or better.  They 49ers have outgained their opponents by 174 yards on the season.  They are outgaining them by 15.2 yards per game.  That’s not the sign of a 2-10 team. 

The Broncos are +8 in turnovers over the past three weeks, which has allowed them to win three straight games over the Steelers, Chargers and Bengals.  But they had no business winning those games against the Steelers and Chargers as those two teams simply gave the game away.  And the Bengals are decimated with injuries playing with a backup QB.  They’re broken. 

The 49ers do show up every week.  Their 16-43 loss to the Seahawks last week makes most bettors seem like they packed it in.  But that wasn’t the case, and it was one of the most misleading finals of the week.  I mentioned the 98-yard INT return TD the Seahawks got at the end of the game.  But the 49ers gained 452 total yards and gave up 331, actually outgaining the Seahawks by 121 yards in that contest.  They deserved better, and Nick Mullens had one of his better games of the season with 386 passing yards. 

The Broncos have some key injuries this week that will make them less effective.  Emmanuel Sanders suffered an Achilles injury in practice on Wednesday that has landed him on IR.  Sanders was having a great year with 71 receptions for 868 yards and four touchdowns.  And since the Broncos traded away Demaryius Thomas, his loss is even more significant.  The Broncos are seriously lacking weapons for the mediocre Case Keenum now.   

Plus, the Broncos’ best pass defender is Chris Harris Jr., and he’s out with a fractured fibula now.  The 49ers were without both Marquise Goodwin and Pierre Garcon last week.  But Goodwin is expected to return, giving Mullens another big weapon outside.  And Garcon is questionable and could make his return this week as well.  Mullens should be able to make some more plays in the passing game this week. 

Denver is 0-6 ATS vs. teams who force one or fewer turnovers per game on the season over the last two seasons.  The Broncos are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games after gaining more than 150 rushing yards in their previous game.  This is clearly a ‘buy low’ situation on the 49ers, and a ‘sell high’ situation on the Broncos.  Roll with the 49ers Sunday. 

20* AFC South GAME OF THE MONTH on Indianapolis Colts +5 

In the NFL, lines are very tight.  And if a line if a point or two off, that’s all it takes for there to be some value.  I think this line should be Texans -3.  So we are basically getting two points of value on the Colts +5 this week.  That’s enough for me to pull the trigger. 

I believe the Texans are overvalued due to their 9-game winning streak.  And they’re coming off a misleading 16-point win over the Browns last week.  The Browns basically gave that game away by losing the turnover battle 4-0.  They had a 75-yard TD called back by a penalty, and they had another would-be 75-yard TD on the next play end in a player fumbling the ball through the end zone for a touchback.  The Browns gained 428 yards on the Texans and outgained them by 44 yards for the game. 

I believe the Colts come in undervalued this week off their upset 6-0 shutout loss at Jacksonville last week.  But the Colts actually outgained the Jaguars by 54 yards and held them to 211 yards.  In fact, the Colts have now outgained eight of their last nine opponents coming in.  That’s the sign of an elite team and one that I want to put my money behind, especially as 5-point underdogs. 

There’s no doubt the Colts want revenge from their 34-37 (OT) home loss to the Texans earlier this season in their first meeting.  The Colts gained 478 total yards on the Texans and moved the ball at will.  I think the Texans will relax this week.  They have a three-game lead over both the Colts and Titans in the division, so they can afford a loss.  Meanwhile, the Colts are in must-win mode here trying to stay alive for a wild card spot. 

Andrew Luck has been tremendous off a loss.  In fact, Luck is 25-8 SU & 24-9 ATS in his last 33 games as a starting quarterback following a defeat.  Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Indianapolis) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 35 or more points, who are also off a close loss by 7 points or less to a division rival are 30-9 (76.9%) ATS since 1983. 

The road team is 6-1-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The Colts are 7-3-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  The Colts are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five trips to Houston.  Indianapolis is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games after scoring 14 points or fewer in its previous game.  The Texans are 1-7 ATS in their last eight December games.  Take the Colts Sunday. 

15* Ravens/Chiefs AFC Sunday No-Brainer on Baltimore +7 

I agree with this line move.  The Chiefs opened as 7.5-point favorites or higher, and now this line has been bet down to 6.5 in most places as of this writing.  So if your book as +6.5 make sure to buy it up to +7 and bet the Ravens. 

This really comes down to the numbers for me.  The Ravens have the numbers of an elite team in spite of their mediocre 7-5 record.  They are outgaining teams by 102 yards per game on the season.  To compare, the Chiefs are only outgaining teams by 20 yards per game, which isn’t the sign of a 10-2 team.  I think the Chiefs are grossly overrated at this point of the season. 

The problem with the Chiefs is that they give up 27.2 points per game while ranking 31st in the league in total defense at 417 yards per game allowed.  Only the Bengals have been worse.  The Ravens rank 1st in the NFL in scoring defense at 17.8 points per game allowed, and 1st in total defense at 281.7 yards per game allowed. 

Lamar Jackson took over three games ago, and the Ravens have gone 3-0 in his starts while outscoring their three opponents by a combined 30 points, or by an average of 10 points per game.  They have become a run-heavy team since Jackson took over, averaging a whopping 238 rushing yards per game in their last three games.  That doesn’t bode well for the Chiefs, who are tied for dead last in the NFL in allowing 5.1 yards per carry this season.  So this is a great matchup for the Ravens’ offense.  They can control time of possession and keep Mahomes off the field with their ground game. 

It’s also a great matchup for the Ravens’ defense.  The Chiefs won’t be running the ball much now that Kareem Hunt has been released.  And they'll certainly miss his 1,202 yards from scrimmage and 14 total touchdowns as he was a matchup nightmare, especially in the passing game.  The Chiefs will be putting the ball in Pat Mahomes’ hand even more.

Well, the Ravens rank 2nd in the NFL against the pass, giving up just 194.4 passing yards per game.  Better yet, the Ravens are 1st in the NFL in passing yards per attempt (6.1) allowed.  No other defense is even close to them in that department as only three teams allow fewer than 6.8 per attempt this season. 

Baltimore is 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. terrible defensive teams that allow 375 or more yards per game in the second half of the season.  Kansas City is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games after gaining 450 or more total yards in its previous game.  The Ravens are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games after gaining 150 or more rushing yards in their previous game.  Bet the Ravens Sunday.