Top Handicapper Jack Jones Expert Sport Picks

Jack’s Free Pick Saturday: Clemson -15 

I think the fact that Clemson is 0-3 ATS thus far this season is keeping this number against Georgia Tech lower than it should be in Week 4.  They beat Furman 48-7 but failed to cover as 50-point favorites, they beat Texas A&M on the road 28-26 but failed to cover as 12-point favorites, and they beat Georgia Southern 38-7 and barely failed to cover as 31.5-point favorites. 

But that Georgia Southern game was a bigger blowout than the final score even.  The Tigers outgained them by 455 yards and should have won by more.  And the fact that they played Georgia Southern will be a huge help here because they are playing a triple-option offense for a second consecutive week. 

Clemson has certainly had an answer for Georgia Tech’s triple-option offense in recent years, too.  Over the past three years, the Tigers have held the Yellow Jackets to just 121 rushing yards per game and 2.9 per carry in their three meetings.  Georgia Tech has only managed 17 combined points in its last two meetings with Clemson. 

This is a Georgia Tech team that simply isn’t any good.  They lost 38-49 as a 3-point favorite at South Florida in Week 2.  Then they trailed 6-24 at Pitt last week as this game was decided early before they tacked on a couple of scores late in a 19-24 loss.  The big blow was losing RB KirVonte Benson to a season-ending injury in that USF defeat.  He rushed for 1,053 yards last year and was their best playmaker outside their QB.  No other RB topped 280 yards rushing last year. 

Clemson boasts a potent offense that is putting up 38.0 points and 513 yards per game this season.  They will do enough offensively to put Georgia Tech away, and I expect their defense to continue the three-year trend of coordinator Will Venables shutting down the triple-option.  Look for the Tigers to be focused for their ACC opener and win big in this one.  Bet Clemson Saturday.

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15* Stanford/Oregon ABC ANNIHILATOR on Stanford -2 

This used to be a great rivalry with Stanford and Oregon trading blows every year back when Chip Kelly around.  But that’s no longer the case.  Stanford has dominated the last two meetings.  They won 52-27 on the road as 3-point favorites in 2016.  They won 49-7 at home as 9.5-point favorites last year. 

Now, Stanford is only a 2-point favorite in 2018 as oddsmakers are expecting a close game.  I’m just not seeing it.  Stanford is a legit contender to win the Pac-12.  The Cardinal have been tested already and have passed with flying colors. 

The Cardinal beat San Diego State 31-10 as 14-point home favorites.  They shut down USC 17-3 as 4.5-point home favorites as well.  So, they have been battle-tested, and it’s clear they have an elite defense.  Offensively, star RB Bryce Love sat out last week and is now healthy and fresh for this huge game against Oregon.  He will easily have his best game of the season here. 

No team has faced an easier schedule than Oregon through the first three weeks.  They beat Bowling Green in the opener.  Then they beat Portland State, an FCS team that is 1-13 dating back to last season.  Most concerning was Oregon’s 35-22 home win over San Jose State as 42.5-point favorites last week.   

That mere 13-point win is a big concern considering San Jose State is one of the worst teams in the country. Now, the Ducks won’t be prepared to get smacked in the mouth like they will against Stanford this week due to their lack of competition up to this point.  It’s going to be a big eye-opener for them. 

This is also a big coaching mismatch with David Shaw over Mario Cristobal.  I believe Cristobal is in over his head here.  Also, Autzen Stadium isn’t what it once was back when Oregon was actually good.  Stanford is 21-8-1 ATS in its last 30 games following an ATS loss.  The Cardinal are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record.  The Ducks are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a win.   

Cristobal is 0-7 ATS in home games off a home game in all games he has coached.  Oregon is 0-6 ATS after allowing 100 or less rushing yards last game over the past two seasons.  The Ducks are 0-7 ATS vs. teams who commit one or fewer turnovers per game over the last three seasons.  Oregon is 1-9 ATS versus good offensive teams that average 5.9 or more yards per play over the last three years.  Stanford is 6-0 ATS vs. good offensive teams that average 5.9 or more yards per play over the last two seasons.  These last five trends combine for a 35-1 system backing the Cardinal.  Bet Stanford Saturday. 

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Louisiana Tech +21 

This is a bad spot here for the LSU Tigers.  They have overachieved thus far with two upset wins over top-10 teams in Miami and Auburn.  And after their big win at Auburn last week, this is going to be a flat spot for them hosting Louisiana Tech as 21-point favorites.  I think the Tigers are way overvalued right now due to their 3-0 start. 

We saw them fall pretty flat in Week 2 with their 31-0 win over SE Louisiana, failing to cover as 41.5-point favorites.  Their offense is still an issue as they only managed 31 points and 335 total yards against that Southern Utah squad.  And they will be hard-pressed to top those numbers here against a much better Louisiana Tech team. 

Skip Holtz is one of my favorite coached in college football.  He got has gotten Louisiana Tech to at least 9 wins in three of the past four seasons.  After a 7-6 season last year with just 11 returning starters, Holtz brought back 15 starters this season and has one of the best teams in Conference USA. 

Louisiana Tech opened its season with a. 30-26 win at South Alabama.  That game was a bigger blowout than the final score showed as the Bulldogs outgained USA by 132 yards.  And then they beat Southern 54-17 at home in Week 2 before getting a bye last week.  So now they’ve had two full weeks to prepare for this game against LSU.  And you can tell from the press clippings that this team is hungry to beat their in-state foe. 

Tech cornerback Amik Robertson, sho said he chose the Bulldogs over the Tigers when he was recruited out of Thibodaux High School in Louisiana, call this a ‘statement game’.  “It’s a huge game, not just for me, but for everyone on the team,” Roberston said.  “I probably wasn’t the only person on my team that had interest from LSU.  LSU has passed on a lot of players on this team and they also have a point to prove.  And not just proving to LSU, but proving to Louisiana Tech that we can play with anybody.” 

Last season, the Bulldogs proved they could play with another SEC school when they led at South Carolina until the Gamecocks prevailed 17-16 on a field goal with four seconds remaining.  In fact, the Bulldogs are 9-4 ATS in in their last 13 games as underdogs against Power 5 schools. 

“I’m not really proud that we lost that game, but I’m king of happy that it did happen,” Roberston said.  “Now we know what it takes - finishing at the end, make those important plays.  We had a lot of busted players toward the end, not at the beginning.  That’s why we got to go into this game and play 60 minutes of Louisiana Tech football.” 

Those are some quotes I can certainly get behind.  Not only does Louisiana Tech think they can be competitive in this game, they think they can win it.  And LSU lost outright to Troy in a similar spot last year as 20.5-point home favorites.  LSU is now 2-7 ATS in its past nine games as a 20-plus point favorites.  The Tigers just don’t have the kind of offensive firepower it takes to cover these massive spreads. 

LSU is 8-19 ATS in its last 27 games as a home favorites of 14.5 to 21 points.  The Tigers are 0-6 ATS in September home games over the last three seasons.  Holtz is 30-15 ATS as a road underdog in all games as a head coach.  The Bulldogs are 7-2 ATS in their last nine vs. SEC opponents. 

Plays on road underdogs (Louisiana Tech) - off a home win, with 4-plus more returning starters and their QB returning against a team with a new QB are 27-7 (79.4%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Louisiana Tech Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on East Carolina +21 

South Florida is being priced like the team that went a combined 21-4 over the previous two seasons.  But that team was loaded, and Charlie Strong now has mostly his players instead of Willie Taggart’s.  And Strong has an inexperienced bunch that returned just 11 starters this season.  I have not been impressed with USF thus far, and they certainly shouldn’t be laying three touchdowns to East Carolina here Saturday. 

USF opened with an underwhelming 34-14 win over Elon as 27.5-point favorites.  Their 49-38 home win over Georgia Tech as 3.5-point dogs in Week 2 was a fluke.  They were outgained by 176 yards and gave up 602 yards to the Yellow Jackets, trailing through three quarters and needing a miracle finish to pull off the upset.  Then last week they trailed by 12 in the fourth quarter against a bad Illinois team and needed to score the final 17 points to win 24-19 as 14-point favorites. 

Scottie Montgomery is in Year 3 at East Carolina, which is when teams usually show their most improvement under a new head coach.  And I think it’s safe to say this team is Montgomery’s best yet after upsetting North Carolina 41-19 as 15-point underdogs in Week 2, covering the spread by 37 points.  They racked up 510 total yards and held the Tar Heels to 395 in a dominant effort. 

Now the Pirates have had two full weeks to prepare for South Florida after their game against Virginia Tech was cancelled last week.  Look for a big effort from them because of it.  And they have a knack for playing South Florida tough.  Four of the last five meetings have been decided by 17 points or less.  In their last two trips to USF, ECU lost by 16 but only trailed by 2 with under seven minutes left in 2016.  And they won outright 28-17 back in 2014.  I believe the Pirates will  keep this one closer than expected.  Take East Carolina Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Oregon State +7 

Many expected Oregon State to be one of the worst Power 5 teams in the country this season.  After all, this was a team that was coming off a 1-11 season last year and with a new head coach in former Beaver QB Jonathan Smith.  Well, Smith is getting the most out of this team, and I believe the Braves are vastly underrated right now entering Week 4. 

Losing 31-77 at Ohio State in the opener wasn’t that bad of a loss.  And I came away impressed that they could put up 31 points on that defense.  They then beat Southern Utah 48-25 and covered as 13.5-point favorites.  And they should have beaten Nevada last week, losing 35-37 as 4-point underdogs.  But they committed three turnovers in that game and missed two field goals, including a chip shot that would have won it in the closing seconds.  They outgained Nevada by 183 yards in that contest. 

This is a talented Oregon State offense that can hang with mediocre teams like Arizona.  The Beavers are averaging 38.0 points and 527.0 yards per game.  That’s bad news for an Arizona defense that has been torched this season, giving up 34.7 points and 469 yards per game.  I don’t know how Arizona can be laying a touchdown on the road here with that defense. 

Kevin Sumlin is one of the worst coaches in college football.  He recruited great talent at Texas A&M, but could never get anything out of it after Johnny Manziel left.  And now he’s been a big disappointment at Arizona thus far.  The Wildcats are 1-2 SU & 1-2 ATS.  They lost 23-28 at home to BYU as 11.5-point favorites, and were blasted 18-45 at Houston as 3.5-point dogs.  They also beat Southern Utah at home 62-31, the same team that Oregon State faced and beat handily. 

Arizona is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 road games, while Oregon State is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 home games.  The Beavers are 13-4 ATS in the last 17 meetings, including 7-2 ATS in their last nine home meetings.  The Wildcats are 1-8 ATS in conference road games over the last three seasons.  The Beavers are 6-0 ATS in home games vs. teams who commit 60 or more penalty yards per game over the last three seasons.  Roll with Oregon State Saturday. 

15* Eastern Michigan/SDSU Late-Night BAILOUT on Eastern Michigan +12 

This is a very bad spot for the San Diego State Aztecs.  They are getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers now after their upset win over Arizona State last week.  But it was a Sun Devils team in a flat spot off their own upset win over Michigan State the week prior.  And now SDSU won’t be able to help but look ahead to their huge showdown with Boise State on deck.  This is the classic sandwich game, and I expect the Aztecs to be flatter than a pancake.  That will make it very difficult for them to cover this 12-point spread, let alone win the game. 

Eastern Michigan has flown under the radar over the past few seasons under Chris Creighton.  The Eagles made their first bowl game since 1987 in 2016 and went 7-6.  They were better than their 5-7 record showed last year.  And now they have 13 starters back this season and have already outperformed expectations. 

Eastern Michigan opened with a resounding 51-17 win over Monmouth.  Then they went on the road in Week 2 and upset Purdue 20-19 as 15-point underdogs.  Last week they were on the road again and lost to a very good Buffalo team 28-35 as 3-point dogs.  But they weren’t overmatched in that game as they actually outgained Buffalo in that contest.  I had Buffalo last week and had to sweat that one out. 

That’s the thing about this Eagles squad, they just don’t get blown out.  In fact, each of their last 10 losses have come by 12 points or less, including nine by 7 points or fewer.  And each of their last 14 losses have come by 15 points or less.  They aren’t going to be intimidated by this San Diego State squad after beating the likes of Rutgers and Purdue on the road over the past few seasons. 

Eastern Michigan is 8-0 ATS when playing against a good team with a winning percentage between 60% and 75% over the last three seasons.  The Eagles are 10-2 ATS as road underdogs over the last three years.  Eastern Michigan is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 non-conference games.  The Eagles are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss.  The Aztecs are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with Eastern Michigan Saturday. 

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Texas A&M +27 

The Alabama Crimson Tide are the defending national champs.  They are also the No. 1 team in the country.  The betting public has been all over this team in the early going, and it has paid huge dividends.  Alabama is off to a 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS start this season.  The public is going to continue to back them this week, and I think this is finally the game where the market has over-corrected itself.  There’s value with Texas A&M as 27-point dogs in this matchup. 

I question that strength of schedule to this point for Alabama, though.  The win over Louisville doesn’t look any good now after Louisville nearly lost to Western Kentucky at home last week.  They were outplayed badly in that game and won 20-17.  And Ole Miss clearly isn’t that good, especially defensively.  A win over Arkansas State is nothing special, either.  This is a huge step up in class for Alabama this week. 

Texas A&M has already played a team the caliber of Alabama and passed with flying colors.  They only lost 26-28 at home to Clemson as 11.5-point underdogs.  And you could argue that they should have won that game.  They racked up 501 total yards against a very good Clemson defense, a defense that is probably better than this Alabama unit.  QB Kellen Mound threw for 430 yards and three touchdowns without an interception against that Clemson defense. 

No team upgraded at head coach more than Texas A&M this offseason.  Kevin Sumlin could recruit talent to college station, but he didn’t know what do to with it.  And now Sumlin is struggling at Arizona.  Jimbo Fisher was a home run hire after winning a national championship at Florida State.  He is already getting the most out of this talent as Texas A&M is 3-0 ATS this season and hitting on all cylinders.  The cupboard certainly wasn’t bare as 16 starters returned from last year’s squad. 

Mond has already thrown for 824 yards with a 6-to-0 TD/INT ratio.  This is an offense that is putting up 44.3 points, 596.3 yards per game and 7.5 yards per play.  The defense is also playing very well, limiting opponents to 15.0 points and 331 yards per game.  I think this team really believes they can hang with Alabama, and few teams have been as competitive against Alabama as Texas A&M over the past several years. 

Alabama and Texas A&M have played in six consecutive seasons since the Aggies joined the SEC.  Well, Alabama has only beaten Texas A&M by more than 19 points once in those six meetings.  Texas A&M only lost 19-27 at home to Alabama as 25-point dogs last year.  I think getting them as 27-point road underdogs is an absolute gift from oddsmakers this week.  Fisher will have his team ready to go Saturday. 

Plays on road underdogs of 21.5 or more points (Texas A&M) - after outgaining an opponent by 175 or more total yards in their previous game, with an experienced QB returning as a starter, in the first month of the season are 30-9 (76.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. 

Texas A&M is 9-1 ATS in the first month of the season over the last three seasons.  The Aggies are 7-0 ATS after playing a home game over the last two years.  Texas A&M is 20-5-1 ATS in its last 26 September games.  Alabama is 1-4 ATS in its last five conference games.  It’s time to ‘sell high’ on the Crimson Tide this week.  Take Texas A&M Saturday. 

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Texas Tech +14 

Many expected Oklahoma State to be down this season because they lost a ton of talent on offense.  But they have proved their doubters wrong thus far by opening 3-0.  The Missouri State and South Alabama wins were nothing to be proud of, but their 44-21 win over Boise State at home last week was certainly a statement game.  Keep in mind that Oklahoma State only outgained Boise State by 8 yards in that contest, though. 

Now, after ‘upsetting’ Boise State as 1-point underdogs, the Cowboys are back to getting respect from oddsmakers.  And I think it’s too much respect.  I still question how good this team really is.  And Boise State isn’t the program it once was under Chris Petersen.  I think the Cowboys are getting way more credit for that win than they deserve.  They’re being asked to lay two touchdowns in their Big 12 opener against Texas Tech this week. 

Texas Tech was written off after its 27-47 season-opening loss to Ole Miss.  But this team has shown some big-time resiliency the last two weeks.  They throttled Lamar 77-0, which OK it’s Lamar.  But then last week was their real impressive win against Houston 63-49.  They racked up a whopping 704 total yards, including 605 passing, against a good Houston defense. 

Clearly Texas Tech has the offensive firepower to keep up with Oklahoma State.  That has shown in recent meetings, too.  Texas Tech is 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings despite going 0-4 SU.  They lost 34-41 at home as 10-point dogs in 2017, 44-45 on the road as 10.5-point dogs in 2016, 53-70 at home as 2-point dogs in 2015, and lost 35-45 on the road as 14.5-point dogs in 2014. “Last year we had our chances, so we feel like we’ve closed the gap some compared to when we first got here.” Head coach Kliff Kingsbury said. 

Kingsbury is on the hot seat and needs a signature win.  The Red Raiders have shown they are behind him 100% with their effort over the last two weeks.  And now they want some revenge after losing nine straight to the Cowboys in this series.  I think they can not only cover, but pull off the upset as well.  This is a Texas Tech team that returned 16 starters from last year, including 10 on defense.  This should be one of their best chances to actually beat Oklahoma State in recent years because of all the Cowboys lost with just 5 starters back on offense and all of their key playmakers gone from last year. 

The Red Raiders are 21-6-1 ATS in their last 28 September games.  Texas Tech is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.  Kingsbury is 8-1 ATS off two straight non-conference games as the coach of Texas Tech.  The Red Raiders are 6-0 ATS off a home game where both teams scored 31 or more points over the last three seasons. 

Plays on road teams (Texas Tech) with an excellent offense that averages 6.2 or more yards per play against a team with a defense that allows 4.2 or fewer yards per play, after gaining 525 or more yards in their previous game are 33-9 (78.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet Texas Tech Saturday.