Top Handicapper Jack Jones Expert Sport Picks

Jack’s Free Pick Thursday: Milwaukee Bucks -5.5 

The Milwaukee Bucks have been the single-most underrated team in the NBA this season.  They are 43-14 SU & 34-21-2 ATS this year and have the best record of any team in the NBA.  Considering they only lead the Raptors by one game, they can’t afford to let up coming out of the All-Star Break. 

Milwaukee will have no problem getting up for Boston, which knocked them out of the playoffs last season.  After losing to the Celtics 113-117 on the road in their first meeting this season, they exacted some revenge with a 120-107 road win as 2-point favorites.  And now they get the Celtics at home tonight for the first time this season. 

The Bucks are 23-5 SU & 17-11 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 13.2 points per game.  And home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 10-1 SU & 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. 

The Celtics are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Bucks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. NBA Atlantic Division opponents.  Milwaukee is 19-6-2 ATS in its last 27 vs. Eastern Conference foes.  Bet the Bucks Thursday.

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15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on USC -2 

The USC Trojans are in desperate need of a win at home here tonight.  They took out their frustration with a 23-point win at California last time out to follow up their three consecutive losses.  And now they want revenge from one of their worst losses of the season at Oregon 60-81 back on January 13th. 

The Trojans should have their revenge at home this time around.  They are 11-4 SU & 9-6 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 11.5 points per game.  Oregon is just 3-5 SU & 3-5 ATS in true road games this season.  That includes their 15-point loss at Oregon State last time out. 

The Ducks are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 road games overall.  The Trojans are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  The Ducks are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Roll with USC Thursday. 

20* WCC GAME OF THE WEEK on Pacific +8.5 

I love the spot for the Pacific Tigers tonight for several reasons.  The first being that they are coming off three straight road losses, so they are undervalued, and now they’ll be back home for the first time since February 2nd.  And those weren’t bad road losses as they covered at St. Mary’s and BYU, and only lost by 5 at Santa Clara. 

Now the Tigers get their shot at revenge against St. Mary’s, which was fortunate to beat them 78-66 at home as 14-point favorites.  But that game was much closer than the final score would indicate as it was a single-digit game throughout until the last few minutes. 

Few teams have played St. Mary’s as tough as Pacific in the West Coast Conference.  Indeed, Pacific is 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven meetings with St. Mary’s.  The last five meetings at Pacific have all been decided by 8 points or fewer.  And this is the worst St. Mary’s team they’ve had in years, so the Tigers should be able to stay within 8.5, if not pull off the upset. 

St. Mary’s is 0-7 ATS in road games after having won four of their last five games over the last two seasons.  Pacific is 9-1 ATS after playing two consecutive road games over the last two years.  The Tigers are 7-0 ATS in home games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game after 15-plus games over the last two seasons.  The Gaels are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.  Add in that the Tigers are 6-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings, and we have a combined 33-1 system backing the home team tonight.  Take Pacific Thursday. 

20* Michigan/Minnesota ESPN No-Brainer on Minnesota +5.5 

The Minnesota Golden Gophers are on the ‘last four byes’ line by Joe Lunardi.  They are barely in the NCAA Tournament.  So a win here over Michigan would certainly put them in with room to spare, beating the 7th-ranked team in the country. 

Minnesota nearly pulled the upset in a 57-59 loss as 12.5-point road dogs at Michigan in their first meeting this season.  It’s safe to say they want revenge, and they should be able to get it at home this time around.  The Gophers are 13-2 at home this season with their only losses coming to Wisconsin and Maryland. 

The Wolverines have been vulnerable on the road in Big Ten play here of late.  Indeed, they are just 2-3 SU in their last five road games, losing at Wisconsin by 10, at Iowa by 15 and at Penn State by 6.  Their only two road wins came against Indiana and Rutgers during this stretch, two of the worst teams in the Big Ten.  Minnesota just blasted Indiana by 21 at home over the weekend. 

The Gophers have had a knack for playing the Wolverines tough.  In fact, each of the last 14 meetings have been decided by 10 points or less, including nine by 5 points or fewer.  The Gophers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Minnesota Thursday. 

15* NBA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Brooklyn Nets +2 

The Brooklyn Nets were one of the most underrated teams in the NBA prior to the All-Star Break.  They sit at 30-29 overall and in 6th place in the Eastern Conference.  And now they are as healthy as they’ve been basically all season getting several key guys back from injury.  The only key player they are missing now is Spencer Dinwiddie. 

The Blazers have been great at home this season, but they are just 10-15 SU & 10-15 ATS on the road giving up 113.3 points per game.  And Damian Lillard is questionable to play tonight for the Blazers as he recovers from an ankle injury.  Brooklyn is 23-11 ATS in its last 34 games overall. 

The Nets are 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. Western Conference opponents.  Brooklyn is 5-0 ATS in its last five games when playing on 3 or more days’ rest.  The Nets are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  These three trends combine for a 17-1 system backing Brooklyn tonight.  Take the Nets Thursday.