Top Handicapper Jack Jones Expert Sport Picks

15* Ole Miss/Oklahoma ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma -2

Oklahoma has been undervalued since a 51-52 upset home loss to Sam Houston State in the opener.  That loss doesn't look at bad now considering Sam Houston is 6-0 SU & 4-0 ATS this season with the other five wins all coming by double-digits since upsetting the Sooners.

Oklahoma has since gone 5-0 including covers in three of their last four games.  The last two have been very impressive with a 69-56 win over Nebraska as 6.5-point favorites and a 77-64 win over Seton Hall as 2-point dogs.  I think they hand Ole Miss its first loss of the season today.

Ole Miss is overvalued due to a 6-0 start against a very soft schedule.  They only won by 4 over Tennessee-Martin at home and none of their wins have come by more than 15 points despite the soft schedule of Tennessee-Martin, Alcorn State, FAU, Chattanooga, Siena and Stanford.  The Rebels will meet their match today as this is easily their toughest test yet.

The Rebels are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games.  The Sooners are 5-0 ATS in their last five neutral site games.  Bet Oklahoma Sunday.

20* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Pennsylvania -3.5

The Penn Quakers were expected to be the best team in the Ivy League this season because they returned five starters including three double-digit scorers and all of their top reserves.  They weren't healthy to start the season and lost four of their first five games against a brutal schedule with the four losses coming to Iona, Missouri, Towson and West Virginia.

But they have since gotten healthy and gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall with a road win over Lafayette 74-68 as 5.5-point favorites, a 75-55 home win over Hartford as 19-point favorites and an 81-69 home win over Colgate as 4-point dogs.  Now they host Delaware and should roll at home here Sunday.

Both teams will be playing their 3rd game in 3 days, and the Quakers have the better depth which will benefit them.  Keep in mind Delaware only beat Colgate by 4.  They also have lost their two true road games to Air Force by 4 and Duke by 34.  This is a true road game for Delaware, which lost four starters from last season that were all double-digit scorers.

Penn is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 home games, including 5-0 ATS in its last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The Quakers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games vs. teams that attempt 21 or more 3-pointers per game.  The Quakers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as favorites.  Roll with Penn Sunday.

15* Pacers/Clippers Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on OVER 222

The Indiana Pacers are a dead nuts OVER team.  They rank 4th in the NBA In pace this season, 9th in offensive efficiency and 21st in defensive efficiency.  This 222-point total is very low for a game involving the Pacers.  We've seen 15 of 18 Indiana games with at least 221 combined points this season.

This total is low because the Clippers are without Kawhi Leonard and Paul George right now.  While those are two of their best scorers, they are also two of their best defenders.  The Clippers are one of the deepest teams in the NBA so they can still get scoring with John Wall and Norman Powell coming off the bench.  

But they really lose a lot defensively, and that has been evident of late as the Clippers have allowed 114 or more points in four consecutive games.  They have scored 112.8 points per game in their last four games and will get enough points in this one against this soft Indiana defense to send this one OVER the total.

Indiana is 14-4 OVER vs. good shooting teams that make at least 48% of their shots this season.  The OVER is 22-10-1 in Pacers last 33 games playing on one days' rest.  The OVER is 6-1 in Pacers last seven Sunday games.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last four meetings.  The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Los Angeles.  Roll with the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* Blazers/Nets Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Blazers/Nets OVER 220.5

The Brooklyn Nets are a dead nuts OVER team with Kyrie Irving in the lineup.  He's one of the best scorers in the NBA, but also one of the worst defenders as well.  This 220.5-point total is way low for a game involving the Nets with Irving in the lineup.  The OVER is 7-5 in the 12 games with Irving this season with combined scores of 221 or more points in eight of those 12 games.

This total has been set lower than it should be because the Blazers are without Damian Lillard.  But they have been just fine without him, going 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS because Anfernee Simons and Jerami Grant are stars.  They have scored at least 108 points in all six games without Lillard while averaging 118.2 points per game in those six games.  Grant and Simons just combined for 82 points in a win over the Knicks last time out.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Portland Trail Blazers +7

The Portland Trail Blazers have been one of the most underrated teams in the NBA this season whether they have had Damian Lillard or not.  They are 11-8 SU & 13-6 ATS this season, including 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS without Lillard.

The Blazers have been able to be competitive without Lillard because Anfernee Simons and Jerami Grant are stars.  They have upset road wins over Phoenix as 12-point dogs, Memphis as 5-point dogs, Milwaukee as 9-point dogs and New York as 4-point dogs without Lillard.

Simons and Grant combined for 82 points in a 132-129 (OT) win at New York last time out.  Now they stay in New York and head to Brooklyn to face the Nets tonight.  The Nets have been one of the most overrated teams in the NBA this season, especially when Kyrie Irving has been healthy and in the lineup.  The Nets are 3-9 ATS with Irving in the lineup this season as he is a terrible defender and their chemistry has been awful with him.

Portland is 8-1 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.  Brooklyn is 13-38-1 ATS in its last 52 home games.  The Nets are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games after playing a game where they were called for 10-plus more fouls than their opponent.  The Nets are 8-33 ATS in their last 41 games as home favorites.  Bet the Blazers Sunday.

15* NBA Sunday Total DOMINATOR on Wizards/Celtics UNDER 224.5

The Boston Celtics have been the most efficient offensive team in the NBA this season.  But that was with Jayson Tatum (30.5 PPG), who will miss his first game of the season Sunday with an ankle injury.  The Celtics are going to be lost on offense without out, thus this total is way too high.

This total is also too high when you consider the opponent in Washington.  The Wizards are a dead nuts UNDER team.  They rank 22nd in pace this season while Boston ranks 18th in pace.  The Wizards rank 24th in offensive efficiency and 6th in defensive efficiency.  Each of Washington's last four games have seen 218 or fewer combined points.

These teams met on October 30th earlier this season with Boston winning 112-94 for 204 combined points.  The UNDER is now 9-2 in the last 11 meetings and we've seen 223 or fewer combined points at the end of regulation in 10 of those 11 meetings.  That makes for a 10-1 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 224.5-point total.  Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.

20* NBA Eastern Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on 76ers/Magic UNDER 215

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  The 76ers just beat the Magic 107-99 for 206 combined points in Orlando on Friday.  Now these teams meet again two days later Sunday in a rematch in Orlando.

Philadelphia is without its top three scorers in Embiid, Maxey and Harden who combined to average more than 77 points per game.  It's safe to say they are going to continue to struggle offensively without them and have to rely on defense to try and win games.

Orlando has injury concerns of its own with Anthony out, and Suggs, Carter Jr. and Okeke questionable.  The Magic are going extremely big right now as they just started Bamba, Blanchero and Bol against the 76ers last game.  They have been held to 108 or fewer points in five of their last seven games.  

The UNDER is 6-2 in Magic last eight games overall.  Philadelphia is 19-6 UNDER in its last 25 games as a road underdog, including 15-3 UNDER in its last 18 games as a road dog of 6 points or less.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Sunday.

15* Iowa State/UConn ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 136

Iowa State is a dead nuts UNDER team.  They play at one of the slowest paces in the country, play some of the best defense in the country, and struggle on offense.  They are holding opponents to 17 points less than their season averages on the season.

Connecticut is also an elite defensive team which has been the key to its 7-0 start this season.  The Huskies are holding opponents to 13 points less than their season averages.  This game has the makings of a defensive struggle to say the least.

Iowa State is 8-1 UNDER in its last nine games vs. good offensive teams that average 77 or more points per game.  The UNDER is 8-1 in Cyclones last nine games overall.  The UNDER is 10-1 in Cyclones last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Cyclones last seven games following an ATS win.  Take the UNDER in this game Sunday.

Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Los Angeles Chargers -2.5

The Los Angeles Chargers are still very much alive for a playoff spot sitting at 5-5 this season.  Their five losses have come to the Chiefs (twice by 3), 49ers (by 6), Seahawks and Jaguars.  So they have not won when they have stepped up in class, but they have handled their business against the rest of the NFL.

Now they take on a 4-7 Arizona Cardinals team that is pretty much dead when it comes to making the playoffs.  The Cardinals have lost five of their last seven with their two wins coming against the lowly Saints in a game they were actually outgained by 168 yards, and over a banged up Rams team that looks like one of the worst in the NFL in their current state.

This is a terrible spot for the Cardinals.  They are coming off a Monday Night Football game in Mexico City in which the 49ers beat them up badly in a 38-10 loss.  They looked like they quit defensively late in that game, and I don't see them getting back up off the mat on a short week.  They haven't had their bye week yet so they will be extra tired this week.

The Cardinals are one of the most injury-ravaged teams in the NFL.  They are missing several key players along the offensive line and at receiver.  They are expected to get Kyler Murray back this week, but he won't be 100%, and he won't be the dual-threat he usually is with a bum hamstring.  I think his return is giving the Cardinals too much respect from bettors this week.  It's not going to matter as he isn't that much of an upgrade from Colt McCoy, and Arizona still has one of the worst defenses in the NFL.

Justin Herbert got his favorite receiver in Keenan Allen back last week and promptly had a big game against the Chiefs.  He went 23-of-30 for 280 yards with two touchdowns and one interception.  Allen caught five balls for 94 yards in his return, and he makes all the difference for this offense.  Josh Palmer also had a big game with eight receptions for 106 yards and two scores as Herbert is finding some chemistry with him.  Austin Ekeler will have a field day against a Cardinals defense that has allowed at least 136 rushing yards in five of their last seven games coming in.

The Cardinals are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games and have zero home-field advantage, especially with the way their season had unfolded.  The Chargers have always been better on the road than at home.  Los Angeles is 39-19-3 ATS in its last 61 road games.  Arizona is 0-9 ATS in its last nine home games in the second half of the season.  Bet the Chargers Sunday.

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15* NFL Sunday UPSET SHOCKER on Carolina Panthers +2

The Carolina Panthers continue to show up every week under interim head coach Steve Wilks.  They have gone 4-1 ATS in their last five games.  They have upset wins over Tampa Bay 21-3 as 13-point dogs and Atlanta by 10 as 2-point dogs.  They also only lost by 3 at Atlanta as 4-point dogs.  They gave the Ravens all they wanted last week in a game that was tied 3-3 with under 10 minutes to go, eventually losing 13-3 as 13-point dogs after a couple of late turnovers.

This week the offense gets a spark with Sam Darnold expected to be the starting quarterback.  He cannot possibly be a downgrade to Baker Mayfield or PJ Walker.  I think at least for one week, this offense will be excited to see a new face in the huddle and will perform well.  But this game will be played on the ground with a 100% chance of precipitation and 16 MPH winds.

The Panthers have been great running the ball in recent weeks, averaging 134.8 rushing yards per game in their last five games.  Denver is doing nothing well offensively.  The Broncos rank dead last (32nd) in scoring offense at 14.7 points per game.  They rank 24th in rushing at 102.6 yards per game and 28th at 3.9 yards per carry.  With this game being played mostly on the ground, it's definitely worth noting the Panthers rank 17th allowing 4.5 yards per carry while the Broncos rank 26th at 4.7 yards per carry allowed.

No team has been hit harder by injuries than the Broncos.  They have more players on the injury report and more players on injured reserve than any other team in the NFL.  They are going to be without two of their best receivers again in Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler.  The offensive line is a mess as Russell Wilson has no time to throw the ball, which is a big reason the offense has struggled so much.

This Denver defense has kept the team in games for much of the season, but they are tired of it at this point.  Denver sits at 3-7 with nothing to play for the rest of the way after a 22-16 (OT) home loss to the Las Vegas Raiders last week.  They even gave up 409 total yards to a bad Raiders offense that is missing several key weapons.  I don't think they'll have it in them to match the physicality of this Carolina rush offense this week, especially being extra tired coming off an OT game.

Plays against favorites (Denver) - a poor offensive team that scores 17 or fewer points per game are 28-8 (77.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Denver has no business being a road favorite over anyone right now given all their injuries.  Roll with the Panthers Sunday.

15* NFL Sunday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Seattle Seahawks -3.5

The Seattle Seahawks are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their lone loss coming to the Tampa Bay Bucs in Germany last time out.  They won those four games all by double-digits.  They are coming off their bye week and will be rested and ready to go as they try and win the NFC West here down the stretch.  They sit at 6-4 on the season with an excellent chance to do just that with the way they are playing.

This line would be bigger had the Raiders not pulled off the 22-16 (OT) upset in Denver last week.  But that was a Denver team that has more players on injured reserve than any other team in the NFL, and they took advantage.  I expect the Raiders to still be pretty tired from that OT win, plus this is a team that went 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their previous three games with losses to the Saints, Jaguars and Colts while getting outscored 76-40 in the process.

Despite the win last week, the Raiders are just 3-7 this season and out of the playoff hunt.  They are still without two of Derek Carr's favorite weapons in TE Waller and WR Renfrow, and they could be without RB Josh Jacobs, who is questionable with an ankle injury.  They don't have the horses on offense right now to keep up with Seattle, and they certainly don't have the defense to slow down the Seahawks.

Seattle ranks 5th in scoring offense this season at 25.7 points per game and 4th at 6.0 yards per play, and it has shredded defenses like the Raiders all season.  Las Vegas ranks 24th in scoring defense at 24.2 points per game, 27th in total defense at 370.5 yards per game and 28th at 5.9 yards per play.  Seattle has really been buttoned up defensively of late and has one of the most improved stop units in the NFL.  The Seahawks are allowing just 17.4 points per game in their last five games.

Seattle is 6-0 ATS in his last six home games following a loss by 6 points or less.  The Seahawks are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games vs. poor defenses that allow 5.65 or more yards per play.  Pete Carroll is 45-24-4 ATS following a loss as the coach of Seattle.  The Seahawks are 41-19-4 ATS in their last 64 games following a loss.  Bet the Seahawks Sunday.

20* NFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Washington Commanders -3

The Washington Commanders have gone 5-1 in their last six games overall to get to 6-5 this season and back in the playoff hunt, sitting in 7th place in the NFC.  They won't be having a letdown this week considering they host the Atlanta Falcons, who are one game behind them.  I think Washington is by far the superior team in this matchup and should be more than a 3-point favorite at home.

The offense has a certain swagger with Taylor Heineke at quarterback.  Players love this guy.  He is making all the plays he needs to make to get wins.  The Commanders have victories over Green Bay, Indianapolis, Philadelphia and Houston with their lone loss coming to the Vikings by 3 in Heineke's last five starts.  But it's this Washington defense that is the reason they are going to win and cover this week.

Atlanta can't match Washington defensively.  The Commanders rank 12th in scoring defense at 20.3 points per game, 6th in total defense at 308.0 yards per game and 11th at 5.2 yards per play allowed.  Atlanta ranks 27th in scoring defense at 24.9 points per game, 29th in total defense at 389.4 yards per game and 29th at 5.9 yards per play allowed.

There is a 100% chance of precipitation so this game will be played on the ground.  That's especially the case for the Falcons, who just lost one of their best weapons in TE Kyle Pitts to injured reserve last week with a knee injury.  The Falcons average 159 rushing yards per game and only 154 passing.  Well, Washington ranks 6th against the run allowing 103.1 yards per game and 9th at 4.2 yards per carry.  They haven't allowed anything on the ground in four of their last five games, holding the Packers to 38 rushing yards, the Vikings to 56, the Eagles to 94 and the Texans to 21.  They may get Chase Young back, too.

Washington is more balanced and has gotten its running game going in recent weeks with 128 or more rushing yards in five of its last six games.  The Commanders should be able to run all over an Atlanta defense that ranks 21st in allowing 123.1 rushing yards per game and 4.4 yards per carry.  After allowing 232 rushing yards to the Panthers two weeks ago, the Falcons gave up 160 more to the Bears last week.

Washington is 22-6 ATS in its last 28 games vs. terrible defensive teams that allow 6 or more yards per play in the second half of the season.  Ron Rivera is 9-1 ATS in Weeks 10 through 13 as the coach of Washington.  The Commanders are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games overall, and 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight November games.  It's not time to step in front of this freight train in Washington just yet as the Falcons won't be the team that offers resistance to them.  Take the Commanders Sunday.

20* AFC GAME OF THE WEEK on Jacksonville Jaguars +4

I love the spot for the Jacksonville Jaguars this week.  They are coming off a bye under first-year head coach Doug Pederson.  First-year head coaches can really get some good work in on bye weeks, and I look for this Jaguars team to come out of it very sharp.

Jacksonville is much better than its 3-7 record would indicate.  Six of the seven losses have come by one score, so they have been unfortunate in close games.  The only one that wasn't a one-score loss was a 10-point loss at Kansas City in which they went 1-for-3 on field goals, otherwise it would have been a one-score loss.

Jacksonville is actually outgaining teams by 5 yards per game on the season, outscoring opponents by 1.1 points per game, and dead even in yards per play on offense and defense at 5.7.  This is more like a .500 team than one that is just 3-7 this season, which provides us some line value with the Jaguars moving forward.  The Ravens shouldn't be more than 3-point road favorites here.

Baltimore is getting too much love for this four-game winning streak over Cleveland, Tampa Bay, New Orleans and Carolina.  It was ugly last week against the Panthers as the offense was broken.  It was a 3-3 game with 9 minutes left in the 4th quarter before the Ravens eventually won 13-3 after getting some late turnovers by the Panthers.

Lamar Jackson doesn't look right and is clearly playing through injury.  TE Mark Andrews is playing through injury, and Jackson misses his best deep threat in Rashod Bateman, who is on IR.  Jackson has thrown for fewer than 200 yards in six of his last seven games.  Stop Baltimore's rushing attack and you have a chance.

Well, the Jaguars are pretty good at stopping the run.  The Jaguars rank 10th in the NFL allowing 110.1 rushing yards per game.  They are also 8th in the NFL in allowing just 4.2 yards per carry.  The Ravens' best lineman in T Ronnie Stanley got injured last week and is questionable this week as well.

Baltimore is a woeful 1-9 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last two seasons.  It is actually getting outscored by 1.8 points per game in this spot.  Pederson is 13-3 ATS vs. good rushing defenses that allow 90 or fewer rushing yards per game as a head coach.  The Jaguars are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a bye week.  They're probably the healthiest team in the NFL right now with only four players on the injury report.  Take the Jaguars Sunday.

25* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Tampa Bay Bucs -3

The Tampa Bay Bucs saved their season two games back when they put together a last-second touchdown drive to beat the Rams.  They followed it up with a 21-16 win over Seattle in Germany in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score showed.  The Bucs outgained the Seahawks 419 to 283, or by 136 total yards.

Now the Bucs are in a great spot here coming off their bye week.  They are as healthy as they have been all season.  Look for them to carry their positive momentum into this showdown with the Cleveland Browns, who are just waiting to get DeShaun Watson in the lineup next week.  Jacoby Brissett is just a sitting duck this week.

The Browns sit at 3-7 on the season and out of the playoff hunt after losing six of their last seven games overall.  They followed up a 17-39 loss at Miami with a 23-31 loss to Buffalo in Detroit last week in what was a hectic week due to the game being moved.  Keep in mind the Browns scored in the final seconds in garbage time to turn a 15-point game into an 8-point game against the Bills.

Injuries are really starting to pile up for the Browns, too.  They just lost All-Pro C Ethan Pocic last week to a knee injury that has landed him on injured reserve.  The entire offensive line is pretty much banged up, which is why the Browns have struggled to run the football in recent weeks, which used to be their strength.  They have rushed for just 192 yards on 50 carries the last two weeks against the Dolphins and Bills for 3.8 per carry.

But the biggest problem for the Browns is a leaky, banged up defense.  They rank 30th in the NFL in scoring defense at 26.9 points per game and 24th allowing 5.8 yards per play.  The Bucs have come to life offensively in recent weeks, and they should hang a big number on Cleveland this week.  The move to give third-round rookie RB Rashaad White more touches is paying off.  He rushed for 105 yards against the Seahawks last time out.  Brady has pretty much his full compliment of weapons now in Evans, Godwin, Jones, Miller and Brate healthy.

The Bucs rank 4th in scoring defense at 18.0 points per game, 8th in total defense at 310.0 yards per game and 8th at 5.0 yards per play allowed.  The Browns are 24-51-1 ATS in their last 76 games following a loss.  I just think this is a terrible spot for the Browns given their season outlook currently and with Watson coming back next week.  It's a great spot for the Bucs off a bye, as healthy as they have been all season, and with positive momentum as they try and win the NFC South down the stretch.  Bet the Bucs Sunday.