College Football Bowl Confidence Pool Picks & Predictions

College Bowl Season is upon us, and that means you will soon be contacted by that guy in your office or that casual friend you only hear from once a year to join his bowl pool. We are hoping we can help give you an edge this season with some recommendations for bowl confidence pools based on the current money line odds and the win probability that they imply.

How Do NCAA Football Bowl Confidence Pools Work?

The first step in a confidence pool is picking the team you think will win the matchup outright. Once you have done that for each matchup, as the name implies, you rank each team based on how much confidence you have in them winning. With 40 bowl games on the schedule, a confidence rank of 40 would be given to the team that has the best chance of winning, with the team you feel least confident about given a confidence rank of 1.

It is really that easy! Most casual participants will run down the list of games and pick the team with the better record, or the school with more prestige. More savvy players will include the point spread to make some of their picks, but not many are going to use it down the line, which is where we think we can help. The table below ranks every bowl matchup based on the implied probability that each team will win. The moneyline is the ultimate tool in this situation because it is the closest thing we have to an accurate probability for each team to win. Is it perfect? Of course not! Once the probability starts to fall, there will no doubt be upsets. Our hope is that you can use this information to make more informed picks in your pool.

Pick ‘Em Contests

You can also use this information for so-called Pick ‘Em contests, where you just need to pick the winner of the game outright. As with any pool, you’ll want to shake things up by taking a few upsets here and there, however, don’t go overboard. You want to stick with smaller underdogs and not waste points on a team like Western Michigan, who is very unlikely to pull out an upset.

Odds are accurate as of the date this article was last updated. The spreads are bound to change leading up to these games, meaning the probabilities will shift as well. I would recommend waiting as long as you can to submit your picks. We will keep this table updated as lines move so that the recommendations are as accurate as possible all the way until the first game kicks off. Good luck!

2019-2020 College Bowl Confidence Pool Projections

Confidence Favorite Money Line Underdog Bowl Win Prob.
40 UCF -900 Marshall Gasparilla 88.00%
39 Appalachian State -800 UAB New Orleans 86.89%
38 Florida -639 Virginia Orange 84.48%
37 UL Lafayette -567 Miami (OH) Lending Tree 83.02%
36 LSU -550 Oklahoma Peach 82.62%
35 Pitt -420 Eastern Michigan Quick Lane 78.76%
34 Ohio -290 Nevada Idaho Potato 72.34%
33 Tulane -285 Southern Miss Armed Forces 72.04%
32 Wyoming -275 Georgia Stae Arizona 71.33%
31 Alabama -270 Michigan Citrus 70.96%
30 Auburn -270 Minnesota Outback 70.96%
29 Cincinnati -270 Boston College Birmingham 70.96%
28 Texas A&M -265 Oklahoma State Texas 70.58%
27 Utah -265 Texas Alamo 70.58%
26 Utah State -255 Kent State Frisco 69.84%
25 Penn State -255 Memphis Cotton 69.84%
24 Cal -255 Illinois Redbox 69.84%
23 Georgia -245 Baylor Sugar 69.01%
22 Miami (FL) -240 Louisiana Tech Independence 68.57%
21 Buffalo -255 Charlotte Bahama 68.55%
20 Michigan State -200 Wake Forest Pinstripe 64.81%
19 Arizona State -200 Florida State Sun 64.81%
18 North Carolina -190 Temple Military 63.75%
17 Georgia Southern -190 Liberty Cure 63.67%
16 Western Kentucky -185 Western Michigan First Responder 63.23%
15 Mississippi State -185 Louisville Music City 63.23%
14 San Diego State -175 Central Michigan New Mexico 61.90%
13 Washington -168 Boise State Las Vegas 61.02%
12 Notre Dame -165 Iowa State Camping World 60.64%
11 SMU -154 Florida Atlantic Boca Rotan 59.04%
10 North Carolina A&T -145 Alcorn State Celebration 57.37%
9 Air Force -145 Washington State Cheez-It 57.37%
8 Wisconsin -141 Oregon Rose 56.63%
7 Arkansas State -140 Florida International Camellia 56.44%
6 Virginia Tech -140 Kentucky Belk 56.44%
5 Navy -136 Kansas State Liberty 55.67%
4 Clemson -129 Ohio State Fiesta 54.24%
3 Iowa -128 USC Holiday 54.03%
2 BYU -124 Hawaii Hawai’i 53.52%
1 Tennesee -120 Indiana Gator 52.27%

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