College Football Bowl Confidence Pool Picks & Predictions

College Bowl Season is upon us, and that means you will soon be contacted by that guy in your office or that casual friend you only hear from once a year to join his bowl pool. We are hoping we can help give you an edge this season with some recommendations for bowl confidence pools based on the current money line odds and the win probability that they imply.

How Do NCAA Football Bowl Confidence Pools Work?

The first step in a confidence pool is picking the team you think will win the matchup outright. Once you have done that for each matchup, as the name implies, you rank each team based on how much confidence you have in them winning. With 41 bowl games on the schedule, a confidence rank of 41 would be given to the team that has the best chance of winning, with the team you feel least confident about given a confidence rank of 1.

It is really that easy! Most casual participants will run down the list of games and pick the team with the better record, or the school with more prestige. More savvy players will include the point spread to make some of their picks, but not many are going to use it down the line, which is where we think we can help. The table below ranks every bowl matchup based on the implied probability that each team will win. The moneyline is the ultimate tool in this situation because it is the closest thing we have to an accurate probability for each team to win. Is it perfect? Of course not! Once the probability starts to fall, there will no doubt be upsets. Our hope is that you can use this information to make more informed picks in your pool.

Pick ‘Em Contests

You can also use this information for so-called Pick ‘Em contests, where you just need to pick the winner of the game outright. As with any pool, you’ll want to shake things up by taking a few upsets here and there, however, don’t go overboard. You want to stick with smaller underdogs and not waste points on a team like Eastern Michigan, who is very unlikely to pull out an upset.

Odds are accurate as of the date this article was last updated. The spreads are bound to change leading up to these games, meaning the probabilities will shift as well. I would recommend waiting as long as you can to submit your picks. We will keep this table updated as lines move so that the recommendations are as accurate as possible all the way until the first game kicks off. Good luck!

2023-2024 College Bowl Confidence Pool Projections

Confidence Favorite Money Line Underdog Bowl Win Prob.
41 Oregon -660 Liberty Fiesta 85.09%
40 South Alabama -625 Eastern Michigan 68 Ventures 84.48%
39 Georgia -600 Florida State Orange 84.01%
38 Kansas -440 UNLV Guarantee Rate 79.75%
37 Notre Dame -435 Oregon State Sun 79.54%
36 SMU -400 Boston College Fenway 78.24%
35 LSU -385 Wisconsin ReliaQuest 77.64%
34 UTSA -325 Marshall Frisco 74.72%
33 San Jose State -310 Coastal Carolina Hawai’i 73.92%
32 Tennessee -290 Iowa Citrus 72.69%
31 Virginia Tech -280 Tulane Military 71.92%
30 Louisville -280 USC Holiday 71.92%
29 Troy -270 Duke Birmingham 71.33%
28 Utah -270 Northwestern Las Vegas 71.33%
27 Clemson -270 Kentucky Gator 71.33%
26 Iowa State -270 Memphis Liberty 71.33%
25 Appalachian State -215 Miami (OH) Cure 66.58%
24 UCF -190 Georgia Tech Gasparilla 63.89%
23 Texas -185 Washington Sugar (CFP Semifinal) 63.23%
22 Minnesota -185 Bowling Green Quick Lane 63.23%
21 Texas State -180 Rice First Responder 62.54%
20 Penn State -170 Ole Miss Peach 61.48%
19 Arizona -170 Oklahoma Alamo 61.48%
18 Kansas State -165 NC State Pop-Tarts 60.72%
17 Syracuse -160 South Florida Boca Raton 59.94%
16 Texas A&M -160 Oklahoma State Texas 59.94%
15 Miami -160 Rutgers Pinstripe 59.94%
14 Jacksonville State -150 Louisiana New Orleans 58.72%
13 UCLA -150 Boise State LA 58.26%
12 West Virginia -150 North Carolina Duke’s Mayo 58.26%
11 New Mexico State -140 Fresno State New Mexico 57.43%
10 Ohio -145 Georgia Southern Myrtle Beach 57.37%
9 Texas Tech -145 Cal Independence 57.37%
8 James Madison -145 Air Force Armed Forces 57.37%
7 Ohio State -130 Missouri Cotton 54.45%
6 Old Dominion -130 Western Kentucky Famous Toastery 54.45%
5 Georgia State -130 Utah State Famous Idaho Potato 54.45%
4 Auburn -130 Maryland Music City 54.45%
3 Michigan -120 Alabama Rose (CFP Semifinal) 52.27%
2 Wyoming -115 Toledo Arizona 51.13%
1 Northern Illinois -110 Arkansas State Camellia 50.58%

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