College Football Bowl Confidence Pool Picks & Predictions

College Bowl Season is upon us, and that means you will soon be contacted by that guy in your office or that casual friend you only hear from once a year to join his bowl pool. We are hoping we can help give you an edge this season with some recommendations for bowl confidence pools based on the current money line odds and the win probability that they imply.

How Do NCAA Football Bowl Confidence Pools Work?

The first step in a confidence pool is picking the team you think will win the matchup outright. Once you have done that for each matchup, as the name implies, you rank each team based on how much confidence you have in them winning. With 41 bowl games on the schedule, a confidence rank of 41 would be given to the team that has the best chance of winning, with the team you feel least confident about given a confidence rank of 1.

It is really that easy! Most casual participants will run down the list of games and pick the team with the better record, or the school with more prestige. More savvy players will include the point spread to make some of their picks, but not many are going to use it down the line, which is where we think we can help. The table below ranks every bowl matchup based on the implied probability that each team will win. The moneyline is the ultimate tool in this situation because it is the closest thing we have to an accurate probability for each team to win. Is it perfect? Of course not! Once the probability starts to fall, there will no doubt be upsets. Our hope is that you can use this information to make more informed picks in your pool.

Pick ‘Em Contests

You can also use this information for so-called Pick ‘Em contests, where you just need to pick the winner of the game outright. As with any pool, you’ll want to shake things up by taking a few upsets here and there, however, don’t go overboard. You want to stick with smaller underdogs and not waste points on a team like Western Michigan, who is very unlikely to pull out an upset.

Odds are accurate as of the date this article was last updated. The spreads are bound to change leading up to these games, meaning the probabilities will shift as well. I would recommend waiting as long as you can to submit your picks. We will keep this table updated as lines move so that the recommendations are as accurate as possible all the way until the first game kicks off. Good luck!

2022-2023 College Bowl Confidence Pool Projections

Confidence Favorite Money Line Underdog Bowl Win Prob.
41 Oregon -575 North Carolina Holiday 83.18%
40 LSU -400 Purdue Citrus 78.01%
39 UAB -385 Miami-OH Bahamas 77.38%
38 Boise State -365 North Texas Frisco 76.49%
37 Marshall -360 Connecticut Myrtle Beach 76.28%
36 Oregon State -345 Florida Las Vegas 75.54%
35 East Carolina -310 Coastal Carolina Birmingham 73.60%
34 Michigan -290 TCU Peach 72.34%
33 Memphis -280 Utah State First Responder 71.69%
32 Florida State -280 Oklahoma Cheez-It 71.69%
31 Minnesota -270 Syracuse Pinstripe 70.96%
30 Georgia -255 Ohio State Fiesta 69.84%
29 Houston -250 UL Lafayette Independence 69.43%
28 San Diego State -245 Middle Tennessee Hawai’i 69.01%
27 Southern Miss -235 Rice LendingTree 68.13%
26 UCLA -235 Pitt Sun 68.13%
25 Clemson -235 Tennessee Orange 68.13%
24 Baylor -220 Air Force Armed Forces 66.77%
23 Toledo -190 Liberty Boca Raton 63.75%
22 South Alabama -190 Western Kentucky New Orleans 63.75%
21 SMU -180 BYU New Mexico 62.54%
20 San Jose State -179 Eastern Michigan Potato 62.39%
19 Texas -175 Washington Alamo 61.90%
18 Ole Miss -165 Texas Tech Texas 60.64%
17 Fresno State -160 Washington State LA 59.94%
16 Georgia Southern -160 Buffalo Camellia 59.94%
15 Bowling Green -155 New Mexico State Quick Lane 59.12%
14 Alabama -155 Kansas State Sugar 59.12%
13 Wisconsin -145 Oklahoma State Guaranteed Rate 57.37%
12 Arkansas -145 Kansas Liberty 57.37%
11 Notre Dame -139 South Carolina Gator 56.25%
10 Duke -135 UCF Military 55.47%
9 Illinois -135 Mississippi State ReliaQuest 55.47%
8 Utah -135 Penn State Rose 55.47%
7 Iowa -127 Kentucky Music City 53.82%
6 Louisville -125 Cincinnati Fenway 53.39%
5 USC -125 Tulane Cotton 53.39%
4 Maryland -121 NC State Mayo 52.50%
3 Troy -120 UTSA Cure 52.27%
2 Wake Forest -117 Missouri Gasparilla 51.47%
1 Ohio -110 Wyoming Arizona 50.00%

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