College Football Bowl Confidence Pool Picks & Predictions


College Bowl Season is upon us, and that means you will soon be contacted by that guy in your office or that casual friend you only hear from once a year to join his bowl pool. We are hoping we can help give you an edge this season with some recommendations for bowl confidence pools based on the current money line odds and the win probability that they imply.

How Do NCAA Football Bowl Confidence Pools Work?

The first step in a confidence pool is picking the team you think will win the matchup outright. Once you have done that for each matchup, as the name implies, you rank each team based on how much confidence you have in them winning. With 40 bowl games on the schedule, a confidence rank of 40 would be given to the team that has the best chance of winning, with the team you feel least confident about given a confidence rank of 1.

It is really that easy! Most casual participants will run down the list of games and pick the team with the better record, or the school with more prestige. More savvy players will include the point spread to make some of their picks, but not many are going to use it down the line, which is where we think we can help. The table below ranks every bowl matchup based on the implied probability that each team will win. The moneyline is the ultimate tool in this situation because it is the closest thing we have to an accurate probability for each team to win. Is it perfect? Of course not! Once the probability starts to fall, there will no doubt be upsets. Our hope is that you can use this information to make more informed picks in your pool.

Pick ‘Em Contests

You can also use this information for so-called Pick ‘Em contests, where you just need to pick the winner of the game outright. As with any pool, you’ll want to shake things up by taking a few upsets here and there, however, don’t go overboard. You want to stick with smaller underdogs and not waste points on a team like Western Michigan, who is very unlikely to pull out an upset.

Odds are accurate as of the date this article was last updated. The spreads are bound to change leading up to these games, meaning the probabilities will shift as well. I would recommend waiting as long as you can to submit your picks. We will keep this table updated as lines move so that the recommendations are as accurate as possible all the way until the first game kicks off. Good luck!

2018-2019 College Bowl Confidence Pool Projections

Confidence Favorite Money Line Underdog Bowl Win Prob.
40 Alabama -532 Oklahoma Cotton Bowl 84.18%
39 BYU -455 Western Michigan Famous Idaho Potato Bowl 81.98%
38 Georgia -445 Texas Sugar Bowl 81.65%
37 Clemson -425 Notre Dame Orange Bowl 80.95%
36 Missouri -315 Oklahoma State Liberty Bowl 75.90%
35 NC A&T -300 Alcorn State Air Force Reserve Bowl 75.00%
34 Michigan -300 Florida Peach Bowl 75.00%
33 LSU -300 UCF Fiesta Bowl 75.00%
32 Utah State -296 North Texas New Mexico Bowl 74.75%
31 Utah -282 Northwestern Holiday Bowl 73.82%
30 Mississippi State -259 Iowa Outback Bowl 72.14%
29 Ohio State -253 Washington Rose Bowl 71.67%
28 Appalachian State -247 Middle Tennessee State New Orleans Bowl 71.18%
27 Stanford -241 Pitt Sun Bowl 70.67%
26 Penn State -241 Kentucky Citrus Bowl 70.67%
25 Texas A&M -230 NC State Gator Bowl 69.70%
24 Fresno State -217 Arizona State Las Vegas Bowl 68.45%
23 Georgia Tech -215 Minnesota Quick Lane Bowl 68.25%
22 Toledo -215 Florida Intl Bahamas Bowl 68.25%
21 Cincinnati -201 Virginia Tech Military Bowl 66.78%
20 South Carolina -185 Virginia Belk Bowl 64.91%
19 Miami-FL -184 Wisconsin Pinstripe Bowl 64.79%
18 Vanderbilt -172 Baylor Texas Bowl 63.24%
17 Auburn -169 Purdue Music City Bowl 62.83%
16 Memphis -168 Wake Forest Birmingham Bowl 62.69%
15 Washington State -162 Iowa State Alamo Bowl 61.83%
14 Temple -161 Duke Independence Bowl 61.69%
13 Tulane -160 UL Lafayette Cure Bowl 61.54%
12 Army -160 Houston Armed Forces Bowl 61.54%
11 Georgia Southern -158 Eastern Michigan Camellia Bowl 61.24%
10 Buffalo -152 Troy Dollar General Bowl 60.32%
9 Marshall -150 South Florida Gasparilla Bowl 60.00%
8 Oregon -147 Michigan State Redbox Bowl 59.51%
7 Ohio -145 San Diego State Frisco Bowl 59.18%
6 West Virginia -142 Syracuse Camping World Bowl 58.68%
5 UAB -140 Northern Illinois Boca Raton Bowl 58.33%
4 Boise State -133 Boston College First Responder Bowl 57.08%
3 LA Tech -115 Hawaii Hawaii Bowl 53.49%
2 Arkansas State -115 Nevada Arizona Bowl 53.49%
1 TCU -110 California Cheez-It Bowl 52.38%

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