Los Angeles Rams at Dallas Cowboys – Vegas Odds and Best Pick

Todd McVay is already proving his value to the L.A. Rams as a head coach, a position at which the franchise has badly needed an injection of fresh blood for decades.

An ESPN story released this week details how McVay has delegated all defensive play-calling authority to veteran DC Wade Phillips, allowing the HC to “diagram plays on the water cooler” and prepare his position-coaches for the likely substitutions to come during the next drive.

Besides the institutional focus on offense (sorely lacking on recent Rams teams) the concept is brilliant in how it decreases confusion and penalties, helping keep Los Angeles in 1st and 10 and aiding game-management.

Oh, but in Dallas they’re still winning – and not with a new concept. Under strict orders from Jerry Jones, HC Jason Garrett is playing it the Tom Landry way…run the same darn plays until your big, fast team executes them, and then watch defenses cower in fright. The ‘Boys seemed to find themselves on offense in the 2nd half of a 28-17 road win over Arizona on Monday night.

Who: Los Angeles Rams at Dallas Cowboys

When: Sunday, October 1st, 1 PM EST

Where: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX

Lines: Rams (+6) at Cowboys (-6) / O/U Total: (48.5)

Point Spread Analysis for NFC Match-up LA at Dallas

The spread opened at (+8), and has shrank as bettors believe the Rams will come within at least a touchdown. The fact that the line didn’t level-off at 7 points exactly raises the question – can the visitors go toe-to-toe with the Silver Star for 4 full quarters?

After all, the Rams just survived an unexpectedly hairy 41-39 win over the woeful 49ers, fumbling twice on offense and allowing Brian Hoyer to find his modest WR corps for big yardage. Jared Goff out-played his counterpart Hoyer however and the defense did record 4 sacks. As Wade Phillips pointed out on Monday, it was an odd game.

A wager on the Cowboys to cover would mean that the bettor feels Big ‘D is on the righteous path again, following the excellent 4th quarter on MNF. We’re not sold that all is peaches and cream.

Yes, Dallas sacked Arizona QB Carson Palmer 6 times, but Palmer goes down like a sack of potatoes these days. It won’t be the same against a younger, less-brittle quarterback. And Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott had a strong 2nd half in the desert as well…but he’s gone from an every-down, every-game threat to a question mark.

L.A. Rams at Dallas Cowboys – Best Insider Point Spread Pick

It’s strange recommending an underdog while knowing full well the favored Cowboys might have another magic, watershed performance and win by 5 touchdowns.

But while a possibility, that would require much more consistency, focus and execution than the ‘Boys have shown so far. We think they’ll probably win…but by a field goal or a safety.

Take the Rams to cover (+6) points.

Read More Like This