Monday Night Football: Lions Favored Over Jets at Ford Field

New Detroit Lions head coach Matt Patricia has found a novel way to express support for (and help maintain public relations) for Motor City owner Bob Quinn, appearing to dismiss the notion of an NFL proprietor being all that educated about what coaches do anyway.

Handicappers can’t know the minute details of what coaches are doing, any more than a non-Al Davis or Jerry Jones-type owner does. But that doesn’t mean NFL betting odds are an unsolvable riddle. Not knowing exactly what teams are up to tactics-wise is a good reminder to think in simple, broad terms when making a pick. We might know that either club could conceivably race out to a 14-0 lead based on the chess match in the 1st quarter. But which roster of professionals is better equipped to hold on to a substantial lead in the 2nd half?

Maybe casino bosses have no idea what it takes to accurately handicap a football game. But as the New York Jets travel to Ford Field for the first Monday Night Football clash of 2018-19, I find myself in agreement with Quinn. 9 of 16 just isn’t a good enough % sometimes.

Is there an identifiable 60%-or-better bet on the board for Monday night’s early kickoff?

Who: New York Jets at Detroit Lions

When: Monday, September 10th, 7:10 PM EST

Where: Ford Field, Detroit, MI

Lines: NYJ (+7) at Detroit (-7) / O/U Total: (45)

MNF Betting Preview: Handicapping the Favorites

Consider Patricia’s comments about ownership vs coaching expectations in the context of a tricky scenario – replacing a coaching staff on a team that just posted a winning record in 2017. The Detroit Free Press relayed the new HC’s remarks this week, in quotes that sounded almost suspiciously like those of a coach who has been there for a while and feuded with management, even though neither is the case:

When Detroit Lions general manager Bob Quinn fired coach Jim Caldwell in January, he said a 9-7 record the past two seasons wasn’t good enough.

On Saturday, Caldwell’s replacement wouldn’t say exactly what is good enough.

As Matt Patricia embarks on his first season as a head coach, he downplayed expectations as he takes over for a coach who posted a winning record each of the past two years.

“I think external expectations, they are what they are,” he said. “I can’t control them. There are probably a lot of people outside this building that have no idea what goes on inside the building from that standpoint.

“So we’re just always going to try to take it day-by-day, we’re going to take it game-by-game. That’s the only thing that matters to us. I think to put numbers on what 16 games are going to look like is just unrealistic for anybody. So we’re going to try to make sure that we do the best job we can with this game.”

Patricia is trying to prevent players believing that he’s simply Quinn’s pet project, a preferred yes-man brought in to lead a squad that may be poised to break through. If the Lions don’t buy the former Patriots assistant as his own man independent of ownership whims, they could lack the motivation and work ethic for a deep playoff run.

There’s no lack of talent. Matt Stafford returns to take snaps for a talented offense bolstered by the team’s top 2 draft picks, OG Frank Ragnow and tailback Kerryon Johnson. Golden Tate and Marvin Jones are coming off 1000-yard receiving seasons. On defense, Darius Slay is making his mark as one of the best CBs in the sport.

What must improve? Namely blocking and tackling. Detroit allowed Stafford to be sacked 47 times last season, and there are questions as to how the Lions plan to generate a pass rush.

Monday Night Football: Are the Jets a Solid Bet to Cover?

Jets rookie QB Sam Darnold is the man everyone wants to see, but how will the team in general match-up on the road against a team that does everything but get to the pocket and protect their own passer?

New York should be able to run the ball OK, and Quincy Enunwa should make a handy target for the USC-grad starter. The Jets play hard-nosed defense under Todd Bowles and will take advantage if the Stafford makes the kind of sloppy mistakes and inaccurate throws that NFL fans saw from Nick Foles and Matt Ryan on Thursday.

There’s only one problem – the Jets’ defense looks even worse than Detroit (forgive me, Robert Plant) when it comes to the edge rush. No NFL team has been less effective at rushing the passer than the Jets over their last 32 regular-season games. That liability could salve Stafford’s biggest long-term worry…at least for Week 1.

Jets at Lions: Prediction and Best Bet

The Detroit offense likes an up-tempo game and Patricia shouldn’t be too keen on discouraging that. In an extended game with plenty of snaps, the chances of the Lions winning by at least a touchdown go up.

The (-7) mark comes with a “safety” of a push/return if the final score is 28-21 or 34-27. But there’s an excellent chance that Detroit will cover against a weaker team that the Lions match up well against.

Take the hosts to cover.

Read More Like This