The Jacksonville Jaguars will try to bounce back from last week’s loss and avenge a loss from last season when they host the New York Jets in Week 4. Kickoff is set for 1:00 EST on Sunday, September 30, at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville. The game will be available on Fox for fans in certain markets.
According to the Week 4 NFL odds, the Jaguars are 7-point favorites at home. However, early betting has favored the Jets, pushing the line down after Jacksonville opened the week being favored by 8.5 points. This game also has an over/under of 38 points.
After an impressive win over the Patriots in Week 2, the Jaguars suffered a bizarre 9-6 loss to the Titans last week. Without Leonard Fournette in the backfield for the second straight week, Blake Bortles had an off day throwing the ball. Even with a dominant performance from their defense, the Jags couldn’t find a way to win.
Nevertheless, the Jags should feel good about their 2-1 start to the season. However, with this being Jacksonville’s third straight home game, it’s vital that the Jaguars get back on track and win this week before they start to play more games on the road.
As for the Jets, their blowout of the Lions in Week 1 seems like a distance memory. Back-to-back losses to the Dolphins and Browns have killed a lot of the momentum and positivity that came out of that Week 1 win. Rookie quarterback Sam Darnold has looked more like a rookie the past couple of weeks, throwing just one touchdown and four interceptions during the team’s two losses.
This game will end a stretch of three road games the first four weeks of the season for the Jets. After this week, they get to go home for three straight games. However, the home fans may not be too excited to see them if they come home 1-3. If the Jets can steal a win from the Jags on the road to get to 2-2, it’ll rejuvenate them just as much as their win against the Lions did.
I’m always a little nervous to pick the Jaguars to cover a big spread because Bortles and their offense can be so inconsistent. Obviously, last week was a perfect example of that. However, the Titans have had Jacksonville’s number in recent years, so I won’t overreact to that game too much. Ultimately, I don’t like how the Jets match up against Jacksonville. I’ll swallow the points and lean toward the Jags to cover a touchdown at home.
As promising as Darnold looked the first week of the season, he’s struggled to replicate that success the past couple of weeks. If Darnold couldn’t lead the Jets to more than 12 or 17 points against the Dolphins and Browns, respectively, I don’t see how he can do much better against the Jaguars. Jacksonville’s defense is on another level, as they are once again tied for the fewest points allowed through three weeks.
What worries me most in this game is the potential for turnovers. Darnold has thrown five interceptions in three games, and now he must face a defense that excels at creating takeaways. Not only can the Jags create takeaways, but they can also turn them into points, which is always helpful for a sluggish offense.
The Jags figure to play tight man-to-man coverage on New York’s receivers, which could persuade Darnold to avoid throwing in their direction altogether. That will put all the pressure on Isaiah Crowell and Bilal Powell as both runners and pass catchers. Dinking and dunking with running backs doesn’t seem like an effective strategy against the speed of Jacksonville’s front-7, which is good enough to stuff the run and cover running backs being used in the passing game.
To be fair, the Jets have been good defensively this season. Against a team with Jacksonville’s inconsistency on offense, the Jets may have enough on defense to keep this game within a touchdown. However, that will require stopping the run, something they haven’t quite done the past two weeks. Against the Browns, Carlos Hyde alone rushed for 98 yards. The Dolphins as a team also ran for 135 total yards against the Jets the previous week.
The Jaguars are hopeful to get Fournette back from an injury this week. His return would definitely change the equation for the Jacksonville offense. If Fournette is back with T.J. Yeldon serving as the backup, the Jags would have a good chance to establish a rushing attack that’s gaining 4.6 yards per carry this season. That would take some of the pressure off Bortles and make it a little easier for him to find the likes of Keelan Cole and Dede Westbrook down the field.
Again, expecting the Jaguars to cover a touchdown makes me a little nervous. However, I don’t trust Darnold to avoid turnovers against the Jacksonville defense. Not only has the Jacksonville defense allowed only three touchdowns in three games, but the Jags are a threat to score with their defense against a rookie quarterback. That’s enough to make me take a chance on the Jaguars being able to cover the 7-point spread against the Jets.