It’s nice to see odds-makers not basing their prediction off of trends for once. The Indianapolis Colts, sitting at 2-5 and having lost badly to the Jaguars last week, are 9-2 straight-up in their last 11 games after a loss. But the Cincinnati Bengals, their opponents this Sunday, are installed as double-digit favorites despite also having won only a pair of games so far in 2017.
But are the bookies going too far? Pundits are absolutely convinced that Cincy will blow the Colts out, based mostly on the result and statistics of the Jacksonville-Indy game.
It would be nice if somebody would point out the strengths of the Bengals as opposed to simply the weakness of their opponent. Cincinnati has put up exactly 1 quality win on the season, a 20-16 victory over Buffalo on 10/15…and even that seemed a little shaky. Andy Dalton was intercepted twice, and the Bengals finished with 65 yards rushing.
Who: Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals
When: Sunday, October 29th, 1 PM EST
Where: Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
Lines: Indy (+10.5) at Cincy (-10.5) / O/U Total: (42.5)
Pundits are expecting Cincinnati’s defense to have its way with the Colts, after Sunday’s visiting QB Jacoby Brissett took a hideous 10 sacks against Jacksonville in a 27-0 loss. Indy’s defense has been struggling, and there isn’t much confidence in Brissett and Colt WRs to generate points even if he’s protected. Many handicappers are treating this game like a done deal already, at least for the SU result.
We’re not so sure. What if the Bengal offense is as hapless as it has been at times in ’17? Dalton is not a premier quarterback anymore, and the hosts’ offense is ranked 31st in the league.
Everyone in the world, it seems, is betting on Cincinnati to cover. But these aren’t high school teams. Games between 2 squads this below-average are less predictable than that.
The safest bet here is actually the under (42.5). Both offenses should struggle and have to deal with turnovers. So long as neither defense gets lucky and recovers fumbles near the opposing goal line, we expect 30-35 points scored. Take the under for the surest win.