Both teams will be looking to bounce back from a loss when the Atlanta Falcons host the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 4. Kickoff is set for 1:00 EST on Sunday, September 30, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. The game can be seen on CBS in various markets.
According to this week’s NFL odds, the Falcons are 6-point favorites at home. That line has increased slightly after Atlanta began the week favored by 5.5 points. The game also has an over/under of 51 points.
Despite starting the season with high aspirations, the Falcons are off to a 1-2 start after last week’s loss to New Orleans. The biggest culprit thus far has been the Atlanta defense, which is giving up more than 28 points per game after the Saints put 43 points on the scoreboard last week. Part of the problem has been health, as safeties Ricardo Allen and Keanu Neal, as well as linebacker Deion Jones, have all been lost for the season.
Injuries or not, the Falcons have to find a way to move forward because their schedule isn’t easing up anytime soon. Also, every other team in the NFC South is 2-1, so the Falcons can’t afford to fall further behind.
That tough schedule for Atlanta continues this week with the Bengals, who are 2-1 on the season. Andy Dalton threw four interceptions in last week’s 31-21 loss to the Panthers, spoiling what had been a great start to the season for Cincinnati. Outside of those interceptions, Dalton and the offense have been outstanding this season, averaging close to 30 points per game.
With another road trip to an NFC South opponent this week, Dalton and the Bengals will have to bounce back fast before their 2-0 start to the season is forgotten. The AFC North is looking like a balanced division, so if the Bengals can get back on track quickly, they may be able to assert themselves as the team to beat in the division.
Coming off a loss at home, I’m a little surprised the Falcons are 6-point favorites this week. If this line were closer to a field goal, I may be inclined to lean toward Atlanta. However, knowing how bad the Falcons have been defensively the past couple of weeks and how explosive the Bengals have been early in the year, I’ll take Cincinnati and the points. Right now, I have to assume the Bengals will score enough to keep this game close.
Much of this game will come down to how these teams deal with their injuries. Based on last week’s performances, the Atlanta defense isn’t dealing with their missing players all that well. With a weakened secondary, I don’t see the Falcons creating four turnovers that helped the Panthers secure a win over Cincinnati last week. I also have to assume Dalton will be a little more careful this week after throw four picks a week ago, so I’m not too concerned that problem will repeat itself.
The past couple of weeks, teams have tried to attack Atlanta with pass-catching running backs coming out of the backfield. The Bengals won’t be able to do that with Joe Mixon, who remains sidelined with a knee injury. However, catching passes is one of the biggest strengths of backup Giovani Bernard, who figures to play a key role in this week’s game. Bernard is a little banged up as well, but I have to think the Bengals will give him a chance to exploit the Atlanta defense.
The Cincinnati offense has an injury concern as well after A.J. Green missed the 2nd half of last week’s game. But the Bengals are no longer reliant solely on Green. Tyler Boyd has been outstanding early in the year while Tyler Eifert has picked up where he left off before his injury problems last year. With all the injuries on the Atlanta defense, the likes of Boyd, Eifert, and Bernard should be good enough for Dalton to do some damage.
The Falcons, of course, also have plenty of weapons on offense. Devonta Freeman is still questionable after sitting the last two weeks. But Tevin Coleman has kept the Atlanta ground game moving. Opposing defenses also have to watch out for Calvin Ridley, who lit up the Saints a week ago. With both Ridley and Julio Jones at his disposal, Matt Ryan should continue his strong start to the season.
Keep in mind that the Bengals have had some notable issues on defense this year. They were absolutely shredded on the ground last week. If they can’t do a better job against Coleman this week, they’ll become even more vulnerable to getting beat by Jones and Ridley deep.
Honestly, taking the over on 51 points might not be a bad play in this game, although that’s quite high for an NFL game. Against the spread, I feel a little more comfortable with Cincinnati and the points. I think Atlanta has the better offense, but the Falcons also have more concerns on defense. If Dalton can avoid the turnovers that plagued him last week, the Bengals will be able to keep pace in a shootout and may even be able to steal a win. I’ll take my chances with the Bengals.