Andrew Luck will make his long-awaited return to the NFL when the Indianapolis Colts host the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 1. Kickoff is set for 1:00 EST on Sunday, September 9, at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. The game will be available on CBS in local markets.
According to the Week 1 NFL odds, the Colts are 3-point favorites over the Bengals. That line has increased slightly with Indianapolis opening as 2.5-point favorites. There is also an over/under of 47 points.
It’s a new era in Indianapolis, as Frank Reich has taken over as head coach after Chuck Pagano was fired after last year’s 4-12 campaign. With Luck missing the entire season after he was slow to recover from shoulder surgery, Pagano can hardly be blamed for such a bad season. Nevertheless, Pagano was made the scapegoat. The good news for the Colts is that Luck is back. We didn’t see a lot of him during the preseason, but when he’s healthy, Luck is one of the best quarterbacks in football and capable of carrying the Colts on his back.
The Bengals, meanwhile, are sticking with Marvin Lewis despite rumors at the end of last season that he was on his way out of Cincinnati. Lewis has never won a playoff game during his 15 seasons with the Bengals, and now the team has gone back-to-back seasons without making the playoffs, so the heat is definitely on Lewis to get Cincinnati to the playoffs despite meager expectations heading into the season.
For whatever reason, the NFL decided to schedule these two teams against one another in both the preseason finale and the regular season opener. During last week’s preseason game, the Colts staged a 4th quarter comeback, coming from 12 points down to win 27-26 with a late touchdown. Of course, it was tough to find players in that game who will be starting this week’s game, so we didn’t learn much about what may happen between these two teams on Sunday.
This game is tough to call because we didn’t see that much of Luck during the preseason. Even if he feels good, I have to think there will be some rust to shake off. The rest of the Indianapolis roster also plenty of flaws to worry about, so I’m unsure if Luck will be ready to overcome all of those shortcomings. I don’t particularly love the Bengals either. However, I’m a little more comfortable leaning toward Cincinnati and the points in this matchup.
Even years ago before Luck had shoulder problems, the Colts struggled to keep him adequately protected. They continued to have one of the worst offensive lines in the league last season as well. To be fair, Indy used their first and second round picks on offensive linemen during the draft. However, I’m still not sure that unit will be any better than average. More importantly, I know that the Bengals have a strong defensive line, so if there are weaknesses on the offensive line, they will be exposed against Cincinnati and Luck will be under consistent pressure.
Another concern with the Colts is their ability to run the ball. Obviously, this is directly related to the offensive line. Also, projected starter Marlon Mack may not be able to play due to injury. That could leave it up to rookies Jordan Wilkins and Nyheim Hines to carry the ball for the Colts. Both are genuinely talented, but again, the Cincinnati defense is strong up front and should be strong at linebacker after bringing in Preston Brown during the offseason. If the Colts can’t run the ball, it becomes that much harder to protect Luck.
Indianapolis also has concerns on the defensive side of the ball. They had issues last season in both the secondary and with their pass rush, and neither has been adequately addressed over the offseason. That could leave the Colts vulnerable on defense.
Of course, it’s up to the Bengals to take advantage of any vulnerabilities in the Indianapolis defense. Cincinnati had plenty of problems last season running the ball and keeping Andy Dalton protected. Joe Mixon will start at running back this year after gaining just 3.5 yards per carry as a rookie in 2017. That doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence heading into this season, even if they made improvements to the offensive line over the offseason.
In the event Dalton has time to throw, he has no shortage of playmakers at his disposal. It starts with A.J. Green, who requires a lot of attention from opposing defenses. But Tyler Boyd and John Ross are also capable receivers as well. The Bengals could also have two viable tight ends this season with Tyler Eifert and Tyler Kroft. That’s an awful lot of weapons for Dalton to use, especially if the Bengals can establish a ground game.
All things considered, a lot of things will have to go right for the Colts to win this game comfortably, most notably Luck proving that he’s fully healthy after sitting out a year. Cincinnati’s path to victory, meanwhile, seems a little less complicated. It’s really a matter of keeping Dalton protected long enough for him to get the ball out of his hands. That makes me a little more comfortable leaning toward the Bengals and the points, even knowing how good Luck can be when healthy.