I got into an interesting social-media discussion this week with some fellows who were comparing Troy Aikman to modern-day Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Aikman scoffs at reporters who claim QBs like Mahomes have already surpassed the greats of the 1980s and 1990s, pointing out that his Super Bowl rings are something that the Chiefs’ signal-caller hasn’t acquired yet and may never will.
But Troy Aikman had a fantastic defense with “Neon” Deion Sanders as a lock-down #1 cornerback. It was said that NFL passers were so loathe to throw in Prime Time’s direction that the Cowboys could have put a cardboard cut-out of him on the field to ward-off passes going that way.
Mahomes doesn’t have a great D in Kansas City, but his raw talent is clearly superior to Aikman’s as a young man, and his Chiefs are 3-0 through 3 weeks of the fresh NFL season. Gamblers love KC to prevail in Detroit this Sunday and have driven the point spread to a full TD + XP despite the Lions’ 2-0-1 record.
Will Mahomes – who can dominate an NFL gridiron like a skilled cowboy at a rodeo – dismiss the haters and take the Chiefs to 4-0?
NFL odds-makers already thought so when betting opened, to say nothing of the line movement since.
Who: Kansas City Chiefs at Detroit Lions
When: Sunday, September 29th, 1 PM EST
Where: Ford Field, Detroit, MI
Lines: KC (-7) at DET (+7) / O/U Total: (55)
Detroit was able to get a huge road win in a hostile environment last week in Philly, as the defense and special teams shined in a 27-24 win. Jamal Agnew’s 100-yard kick-return TD made the difference in a scrum in which the Lions weren’t able to find much rhythm on offense.
Kerryon Johnson got 20 touches for the 1st time in his nascent career but was only able to muster up 36 yards. Matt Stafford was not much better, completing 18-of-32 passes for 201 yards and 1 score. But the Detroit defense was stout, forcing timely fumbles from Miles Sanders and Nelson Agholor en route to the victory.
Turnover margin is a point of focus for Matt Patricia’s defense this season:
There’s something going around on the defensive side of the Detroit Lions’ locker room. It could be a virus. Maybe it’ll turn into an epidemic. Whatever it is, it sounds like it’s infectious and possibly on the brink of an outbreak. Call it turnoveritis.
The Lions’ defense seems to be coming down with an early case of it. And no one wants an inoculation. Patient Zero, otherwise known as Lions safety Tracy Walker, wouldn’t have it any other way. “I’d definitely say it’s a huge adrenaline booster,” said Walker, who intercepted Kyler Murray and nabbed the first of the Lions’ three takeaways in two games. “One of my coaches told me this a long time ago; he said, ‘Turnovers come in bunches.’
Of course, the NFL season has just begun. But the Lions are off to a good start with their three takeaways, tied for 10th best in the league. And it hasn’t been an accident. In fact, it was a major point of emphasizing ball awareness by coach Matt Patricia during the offseason.
Turnovers would come in handy against the visiting Chiefs, because even solid defenses need a lot of spark to force Kansas City to punt even once or 2 times a half.
Mahomes continued to dazzle last week against Baltimore, throwing for 374 yards and 3 scores on 27-of-37 passing attempts. The 2018 NFL MVP is leading the league in yards-by-air once again, throwing for 1155 yards with 10 TD’s and 0 INT’s thus far. Mahomes continues to prove to be a match-up nightmare despite the loss of Tyreek Hill in the opening week of the season.
The running back situation is very fluid, as it was Darrell Williams getting the start over the injured LeSean McCoy last week in a somewhat surprising last-second move by head coach Andy Reid. McCoy did get some carries, though, and was effective before aggravating his ankle in the 4th quarter. Both players rushed for north of 6.5 YPC, excellent to say the least, and we could see Damien Williams back in the mix this week as well. Williams and McCoy are listed as questionable for the Lions game but McCoy says he expects to play.
Kansas City’s O-line has also been among the best in the AFC. The 5-man unit is led by 6’5” 320-pound tackle Mitchell Schwartz, who has yet to allow a QB sack on the season.
I’m of 2 minds about this match-up. Obviously the best way to stop Kansas City is by forcing turnovers, and it should be somewhat easier for Detroit to rush the passer even with KC’s masterful blocking since the scrum will be at home in front of a noisy, energized crowd.
But the turnover battle is won by teams that are smooth and well-coached on offense, not by defenses who talk about getting turnovers all the time. You can’t count on them…and you can’t talk your way into getting them against an elite opponent. Take away Detroit’s points off turnovers, and the results of Weeks 1-3 would look different enough that the Lions might be a 10-point underdog instead.
Mahomes should be able to keep it up against a fellow gunslinger who can’t run nearly as well.
Take the Chiefs to cover in Detroit on Sunday.