Vegas Betting Preview: Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs Prediction

Avatar

The game between Buffalo and Kansas City has many important factors on the line for both teams. First, this game is a must-win for both teams. Make no mistake about it, each squad is heading in the wrong direction and in danger of losing any grip on playoff spots. For the Chiefs, they’re being chased down in the AFC West division. For the Bills, they’re now on the outside looking in at a Wild Card spot. With injuries, bad play and dysfunction all around, these teams need a win to get back on the right track. Kickoff inside Arrowhead Stadium is at 1 PM ET.

Buffalo Bills vs KC Chiefs Vegas Betting Lines and AFC Game Preview

In their last 10 head-to-head matchups, each team has won 5 games apiece. Kansas City has taken the last 3 games in this series including the last time they played against each other in 2015 at Arrowhead. The Chiefs won that game 30-22 despite a strong performance by Bills QB Tyrod Taylor.

Speaking of Taylor, the Bills (5-5) made him the starter again after a disastrous outing by rookie quarterback Nathan Peterman last weekend. The Bills have lost 3 straight games and are quickly losing all hopes of making the playoffs. They need a big performance from Taylor this weekend to have a shot at winning on the road where they are 1-4 this season. Will Taylor lead a Bills stampede at Arrowhead?

The Chiefs (6-4) aren’t playing any better than the Bills over the last month. KC has lost 2 straight games and 4 out of 5 overall. Even more embarrassing is their loss to the lowly New York Giants last weekend where the Chiefs could only muster up 9 points on offense. Their defense had no sacks in the game and they looked pathetic on both sides of the ball. KC looks for a rebound this week at home versus a struggling Bills team.

The spread opened with the Chiefs favored by 9.5 points and it remains unchanged for most books. The Over/Under opened at 45 points and has gone up to 46.5 total points.

Free Vegas Sports Bet and Game Prediction: Over 46.5 total points

With both teams playing so poorly over the last month, it’s hard to pick either one of them against the spread. I don’t trust KC winning by 10 points, not after losing to the Giants, Dallas, Raiders and Steelers in their last 5 games. I definitely don’t trust the Bills who have lost 3 straight and have forgotten how to play offense, defense and football altogether.

So, with that being said, I’m going with the Over in this game. I think it will be a higher scoring game due to lack of defense from the Bills and a poorly executed defense from the Chiefs. The Over has hit in Buffalo’s last 5 games and 4 of 6 for the Chiefs at home. Combined, these two teams average a total of 47 ppg.

For the visiting Bills, it all starts with the trenches. The only chance they have at winning this game, and scoring enough points for the Over, is for their O-line to protect the quarterback and open up running lanes. Defensively, the Front 4 needs to get pressure on KC’s QB Alex Smith and to close their running lanes. Unfortunately, Buffalo has not been able to do this for the last 3 games and it has resulted in a historically bad stretch of allowing 135 points during that span.

For KC, they need to do what the Chargers, Saints and Jets have done to Buffalo during the month of November – run the ball. They have one of the top running backs in the league in Kareem Hunt. He has 873 yards and 4 TDs on the season and is battling for the league lead in rushing. Defensively, KC needs to pressure Taylor, contain him in the pocket and stop Shady McCoy from running the ball effectively.

With the way both teams have been playing, it’s hard to think that either team can accomplish these tasks.

I expect this game to pass the 46.5 total points line largely due to neither team being able to play good defense. I also think that Taylor will play one of his best games of the season especially with KC most likely missing Ford and Hali, two of their top pass rushers. KC’s secondary gives up over 263 passing yards per game and that bodes well for the Bills passing attack, which will miss Benjamin this weekend but get back Matthews.

I’m giving the edge to KC in this one since they’re at home and still look like the better team. But, don’t overlook that both teams are playing horrible football right now and that either one of them can continue this tailspin. KC wins 28-24.

Read More Like This