A pair of teams hoping to finish September with a 2-2 record will meet in Week 4 as the Los Angeles Chargers host the San Francisco 49ers. Kickoff is set for 4:25 EST on Sunday, September 30, at the StubHub Center in Carson, California. Fans in California will be able to watch the game on CBS.
Oddsmakers list the Chargers as 10.5-point favorites at home. There is also an over/under of 47.5 points. Click here to see a full list of NFL betting odds in Week 4.
The 49ers enter Week 4 at 1-2, but their biggest loss of the season came in the 4th quarter of last week’s game against the Chiefs when Jimmy Garoppolo suffered a torn ACL. Garoppolo is out for the season, dramatically changing San Francisco’s plans for the season. Even with less than a dozen NFL starts under his belt, Garoppolo had impressed enough to make the 49ers think they could be relevant in the playoff hunt this season.
Instead, the 49ers will pass the baton to C.J. Beathard, who saw extended action in six games last season but without much success. San Francisco only won one of those six games, as Beathard threw four touchdowns and six interceptions. Clearly, there will be a drop-off from Garoppolo to Beathard, making it hard to see how the 49ers can bounce back from a 1-2 start.
The Chargers, on the other hand, are also 1-2 but have a lot more reasons to be optimistic. Those two losses have come against the Chiefs and Rams, two teams that are currently a combined 7-0 on the season. Of course, the only team the Chargers have beaten this year is Buffalo, who could end up being one of the worst teams in the NFL this year.
Fortunately for the Chargers, their schedule eases up considerably for the foreseeable future. Los Angeles bounced back from a slow start last season and nearly made the playoffs. If the Chargers can win this week to get to 2-2, they should be in a good position to stay in the playoff race, even if they have a tall mountain to climb in order to catch the Chiefs at the top of the AFC West.
At first glance, it’s easy to assume the Chargers can cover this spread with Garoppolo hurt. But I don’t think it’s that simple. Garoppolo wasn’t a one-man show through the first three weeks of the season and the Chargers are not without their faults. This is a lot of points to swallow, so I’ll lean toward the 49ers to keep it to single digits and beat the spread.
The thing to realize about the 49ers is that their running game has led the way thus far, and that isn’t likely to change. Without Garoppolo, it’ll be easier for opposing teams to focus on stopping the run. However, Matt Breida is averaging 8.6 yards per carry through three games. Teams aren’t suddenly going to stop him in his tracks, especially with the Chargers being good but not great against the run this season. Also, without Joey Bosa available, the Los Angeles pass rush has not been as effective as most believed it would be before the season. In short, the Chargers aren’t anything special on defense.
It would also be a little unfair to draw conclusions about Beathard after a handful of games last season. He’s a viable backup who should have a better supporting cast around him than he did last season. San Francisco’s receivers leave something to be desired, but tight end George Kittle has been a difference maker this season. If you know anything about Iowa quarterbacks like Beathard, you should know that they love throwing tight ends. With Kittle and a back like Breida, I wouldn’t just assume that San Francisco’s offense will stall without Garoppolo under center.
The 49ers also deserve a little more credit than they’re getting on the defensive side of the ball. We can forgive last week’s struggles against the Chiefs, who have scored against everyone. However, they held the Vikings to just 17 points in Week 1, as Minnesota scored a defensive touchdown and benefited from four turnovers in that game. The 49ers also kept the Lions under wraps until the 4th quarter when they scored twice after San Francisco built a 17-point lead.
To be fair, the Chargers can be explosive defensively. The running back tandem of Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler may be the best in football right now. Both have been exceptional as both running backs and pass catchers, making life easy for Philip River, who’s done well to avoid turnovers early in the year. But covering a spread greater than 10 points requires total domination, and I think the 49ers can provide enough defensive resistance to avoid getting steamrolled by the Los Angeles offense.
All things considered, I can’t convince myself to swallow this many points. I don’t think the Chargers are strong enough defensively to shut down the San Francisco rushing attack. I also want to give Beathard the benefit of the doubt in his second season. The Chargers will more than likely win this game, but right now, they’re still a 1-2 team, so I’m not comfortable picking them to blow the roof off and beat the 49ers going away.