For the first time in two seasons, the Cleveland Browns will attempt to win for the second week in a row as they visit the Oakland Raiders. Game time is at 4:05 EST on Sunday, September 30 at Oakland Coliseum. Fans in local markets can watch the game on Fox.
The winless Raiders are being favored by 2.5 points at home. The over/under for the game is set at 45 points. Be sure to check out all of this week’s NFL betting odds.
After a couple of close calls, including a tie, the Browns finally earned their first win of the season last week against the Jets. Rookie quarterback Baker Mayfield came off the bench to spark a comeback after the Browns trailed 14-0 midway through the 2nd quarter. Of course, the Cleveland defense also did their part, forcing three turnovers and coming up with a big stop in the final two minutes after the Browns had taken the lead.
Mayfield mania has reached a fever pitch in the city of Cleveland, as many are now expecting him to turn things around completely. With the Steelers off to a slow start, the AFC North remains wide open and there for the taking. Of course, Mayfield and the Browns have to win more than one game if we are to believe they will be a legitimate playoff contender this season.
The Raiders, meanwhile, are still searching for their first win of the season. Needless to say, Jon Gruden’s return to Oakland has not gone according to plan. The Raiders have let 2nd half leads slip away in all three of their games this season. The last two weeks have been particularly disheartening because Oakland led by double digits early in the 3rd quarter but couldn’t close out the game.
At 0-3, the pressure is on the Raiders to get their first win of the season this week. All is not yet lost for Oakland because their schedule in October and early November is manageable. However, if the Raiders fall to 0-4, it’s hard to envision how they’ll be able to crawl out of such a deep hole.
Almost everything in this game is pointing me toward the Browns, who are a legitimately solid NFL team. However, never discount a desperate team, especially at home. Suddenly, it’s the Raiders who need a win more than the Browns. I think Gruden will find a way to pull it out by at least a field goal to cover.
Let’s be honest, the Raiders are not nearly as bad as their 0-3 record indicates. They have looked outstanding in the first half of games only to collapse in the 2nd half. While unacceptable to some extent, those collapses can be explained. In Week 1, it happened against the Rams, who are arguably the best team in football. In Week 2, it happened against the Broncos in a game played at a high elevation where visiting teams are supposed to tire out late. Last week, the Raiders played an early game on the east coast, again in a situation where you’d expect them to suffer from fatigue in the 2nd half.
With the Raiders playing at home this week against a somewhat unproven team, they have a much better chance of putting together a good effort for four quarters. Despite his five interceptions this season, Derek Carr has completed nearly 77% of his passes this season, averaging better than 300 yards per game. Also, despite a lackluster rushing attack, Marshawn Lynch has scored a touchdown in all three games this season. The Raiders also saw Jordy Nelson come to life last week, giving them a viable complement to Amari Cooper. In short, Oakland has done a lot right this season. They just haven’t done it for four straight quarters.
It’s also important not to overreact to one good half of football by Mayfield. Keep in mind that the Jets didn’t have a game plan for facing Mayfield last week. That won’t be the case this week, as the savvy and experienced Gruden will undoubtedly have a lot of ways to confuse the rookie. The Raiders will have a week to put together a plan of attack for facing Mayfield, and that changes the equation.
We must also remember that Mayfield was a bit of a maverick during his college days at Oklahoma. The Cleveland offense may not have moved the ball with Tyrod Taylor, but if nothing else, he valued the football. Mayfield, on the other hand, is a risk taker who could end up making some questionable throws, leaving him vulnerable to turnovers. That kind of style doesn’t always work in the NFL, especially with an inexperienced quarterback playing on the road.
In the end, I’m going to hold off on jumping on the Mayfield bandwagon. The Browns should feel good about their win, but remember that it came on a Thursday at home against a team with a rookie quarterback. Going on the road against a team that’s desperate for a win is a much different type of challenge. I’ll give the Raiders the benefit of the doubt one more week and lean toward them to cover 2.5 points against the Browns at home.