NFL Week 6 Betting Preview: Los Angeles Rams at Denver Broncos

NFL head coaches have really interesting relationships with opposing linebackers, especially really good ones. Nobody could live inside a coach’s head like the great blitzing LB Lawrence Taylor, who often personally caused the late Bill Walsh to assume the “pose” – the word his assistants used to describe the HOF coach with his head in his hands, absolutely despondent the morning after a loss or before a game he’s convinced they won’t win.

“You talk about a guy that’s got elite pass-rush ability, plays with great strength at the point of attack. You see why he’s an All-Pro-caliber player. He’s a nightmare to go against,” says Los Angeles Rams HC Sean McVay. “You’ve always got to be aware of where he’s at.”

McVay isn’t talking about Taylor, of course. This is 2018, and the still green-horned L.A. coach was a newborn when “LT” terrorized opposing backfields in the mid-1980s.

Instead, the innovative skipper is worried about Von Miller of the Denver Broncos, one of the NFL’s finest pass-rushers and play-makers at the LB position.

The Rams visit the Broncos this Sunday afternoon with a chance of snow looming in the forecast. Though NFL betting sites are pretty sure L.A. is going to win (moneylines on the Rams are hovering around -300) the point spread has held to a TD + XP only as bettors aren’t sure how well the SoCal team will adjust.

We can be sure that they’ve adjusted well to everything so far, though – L.A. is 5-0 in McVay’s 2nd season, while the Broncos are a shaky 2-3.

Who: Los Angeles Rams at Denver Broncos

When: Sunday, October 14th, 4:05 PM EST

Where: Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver, CO

Lines: LA (-7) at DEN (+7) / O/U Total: (51.5)

Denver Broncos vs LA Rams: Who Will Cover the Spread?

NFL offenses aren’t bothered by a little snow. But they can be affected by the cold. To wit:

While the Rams could likely score 30 points in a tornado, there is some concern surrounding Mark Barron when it comes to the cold, snowy weather. Last season in Nashville, Barron was sidelined against the Titans because of the frigid temperatures, and they weren’t anywhere close to being as cold as they will be on Sunday. With his finicky Achilles injury, something as simple as the weather could hinder his ability to play at a high level, which McVay admits could be a concern.

“Really, until you brought it up, it could potentially just because of what occurred last year in Tennessee,” McVay said. “It’s a good point and that’s something that we do want to think about as far as just making sure that we do all the little things to try to manage and make sure that’s not an issue. But, could it come up? Maybe it could, but I think Mark would probably give you a better answer in terms of just how that cold affects his body.”

Barron made his season debut in Week 5 against the Seahawks and nearly played the entire game. He led the team in tackles and limited Ramik Wilson to just one snap, so he’s clearly taken over as the starter. Hopefully the weather won’t cause him to miss this game against Denver and the Broncos’ dynamic duo in the backfield.

A talented inside LB, Barron could help the Rams with their lone weakness so far – defense.

Jared Goff’s excellent play from the pocket and a bevy of bruising blockers have given L.A. one of the league’s most prolific offenses. But while McVay’s first defensive unit went from 10/1 to 11/19 without giving up more than 17 points in a game, this year’s group has allowed 30+ points in each of the past 2 weeks.

Kirk Cousins of the Vikings nearly murdered the Rams in Week 4, throwing for 422 yards and 3 touchdowns. Can Case Keenum create a similar stat line on Sunday?

Not if last week is any indication. Keenum was OK against the New York Jets last week, but threw an interception and had almost no support in the ground game during a 34-16 loss.

John Elway believes in the pocket passing game and that’s great, but Denver is going to need its QBs to take off running every so often if the play calling stays on the current tack. Keenum attempted 51 passes against the Jets, while the team only recorded 17 carries despite Philip Lindsay and Royce Freeman combining for 5+ ypc. People can talk about situations, scenarios, and defensive alignments, but that’s pretty inexcusable, and it’s not working.

Especially with a defense that – despite the presence of Von Miller – is letting undeveloped rookie QBs like Sam Darnold look good and turning opposing RBs into superstars. Of course, it’s harder to play good defense when your offense is A) ineffective and B) passing 3 times for every 1 run.

LA at Denver: My Prediction and Pick ATS

Denver has looked better at home, so it’s impossible to make a lock-down prediction ATS here. The Rams offense has been doing whatever it takes to win – not necessarily by a TD margin.

I recommend a live bet at halftime. If the Rams look like they’re affected by the cold at all (and Barron is sidelined) then pick the Broncos to cover. If Denver looks as porous against the run as they were on the road last time out, take Los Angeles vs any reasonable line even if the hosts find a way to hang around early.

Read More Like This